A Win-Win, Except for the Loss

We may one day look back at the off-season deal that sent rookie pitcher Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati and second-year outfielder Josh Hamilton to Texas as one of the all-time blockbusters.

It may turn out, as the baseball media reports, to be a great deal for both teams. But it isn't so right now. As of two months into the '08 season, Texas GM Jon Daniels has got to be sticking needles in his eyes over this one.

Sure, Hamilton is as close to the AL MVP leader as you can get in May with his .337 batting average and .606 slugging. The former first-rounder has put his drug problems behind him and clouted 31 home runs in his first 504 MLB at bats. According to Baseball Prospectus, he's on pace to be worth nearly 10 wins against a replacement level right fielder for the Rangers. And he can play a creditable center if you need him.

That Volquez is on pace to be worth almost 12 wins for the Reds is not nearly the problem with this deal. Nor is his relative youth; at 24 he's three years younger than Hamilton. His mid-90s fastball and heart-breaking 72 mph change, his 7-1 record, league-leading 1.34 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 60 innings are all Cy Young material, but not what should keep Texas brass up at night.

Let's recast this trade: two hungry bald men swapped a comb for a chicken dinner. They're worth about the same, but that doesn't make it a fair trade. The Rangers got the comb.

With eight of their nine regulars on base at a .340 or better clip, the Rangers have the best offense in the AL West by a Big D country mile. Their pitching? Let's just say that the ninth iteration of Sidney Ponson is their #3 starter. Pitchers with ERAs of 8.56, 9.12 and 10.51 have taken the ball in 20% of their games. The pitching corps -- or is it corpse -- has been below replacement value as a unit. You think they could use a guy with a 1.34 ERA?

Trading Volquez was the equivalent of the Yankees moving Joba Chamberlain for a third baseman or the Cleveland Browns dealing a pass rusher to get a quarterback.

The result has been an up-and-down Rangers team in a weak division and the promise of more all season.

Not that the Reds have brushed off the loss of Hamilton. Though they need Volquez badly -- the only other starter with an ERA under five-and-a-half is Aaron Harang -- their outfield has dragged down a productive offense. Ryan Freel has eight extra base hits -- none of them homers -- and Ken Griffey, Jr. is hanging on for his #600 curtain call. With Hamilton, Jr. could cool his heels most nights and fourth outfielder Corey Patterson could take his .630 OPS to Louisville. The Redlegs are also below .500 and depending on the night, bringing up the rear in the NL Central.

I teach my writing students never to call something "a win-win for both sides." It's redundant: win-win implies that both sides win. The problem here is that, so far, the Volquez-Hamilton trade is a win-lose.