30 April 2014

Your Team Needs to Strike Out More

Do a web search on "2014 strikeouts" and you will find a parade of articles postulating about a jump in Ks this year. 

"Seattle Mariners: Strikeout problem stalling offense"

"Where are all of the Johnny Cueto strikeouts coming from?"

"What's behind all those strikeouts for Joe Mauer?"

"Strikeouts galore for the 2014 Mets"

For the seventh consecutive year, the strikeout rate has risen in April, to more than one every five plate appearances. Roughly 16 batters whiff in an average nine-inning game.

Theorized reasons for this trend are myriad. Fastball velocity has risen over the years, from an average of 89.8 mph in 2008 to 91.4 mph this season, according to Beyond the Box Score. Chris Moran notes in this BTB article that 12 pitchers had averaged 94 mph in an April start last year. That number was 25 with half of April to go in 2014.

There are other factors as well. Batters are swinging more at balls outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside it. That may be due to improved catcher framing, which has become a subject of much more emphasis now that cameras are observing every pitch and recording the result. Analysis has discovered that catchers can alter a significant number of ball/strike calls in the course of a game because umps are more likely to call strikes on pitches caught by the catcher if he doesn't move to retrieve the throw.

From an aesthetic standpoint, most fans are not enamored of this development. Few people pay to see a lot of wind-making. From a strategic standpoint, it seems obvious that strikeouts are a negative event for the team at bat -- after all, they are outs. But in a more general sense, the evidence suggests that strikeouts are very necessary evils.

In fact, strikeouts are often a tradeoff. Batters who swing hard and wait for their pitch -- i.e., pass on pitches they don't like even if they're in the strike zone -- tend to whiff frequently. But that strategy yields more walks, fewer double plays and more home runs. 

New research from the Hardball Times illustrates the actual correlations between strikeouts and other events. As you can see below, batters who fan more get on base slightly less (OBP) but hit for more power (SLG, ISO), ground into fewer twin killings (GIDP) and have a slightly higher batting average when they do make contact (BABIP), presumably because they hit the ball harder. On balance it's a positive tradeoff; more whiffs correlate with better overall hitting (wOBA).

Individual K rate and offensive statistic regression analysis
Stat Correlation (R)
OBP -0.07
SLG 0.19
ISO 0.40
wOBA 0.10
GIDP -0.22
IFH -0.27
HR/FB 0.53
IFFB% -0.16
GB% -0.28
FB% 0.31
BABIP 0.08
BB% 0.28

Obviously there's a limit to that relationship; if every batter struck out there would be no OBP, SLG, HR or scoring at all. And Major League baseball may have reached that tipping point. Scoring has declined more or less steadily during the seven years that strikeouts have risen.

All this may be premature -- a blip on the season's radar. But as part of a larger trend, it's probably not. And that means more Ks and fewer Rs the rest of the way. You've been warned.

28 April 2014

Things You Find While Researching Other Things...


If you look up Eddie Murray in Baseball-Reference.com, it will tell you that the silent slugger was nicknamed Steady Eddie. I never heard anyone ever call him that, but there could not have been a more apt nickname.

Consider Murray's home run totals from 1977 to 1990: 27, 27, 25, 32, 22 (strike-shortened season), 32, 33, 29, 31, 17 (missed 30 games due to injury), 30, 28, 20, 26. He averaged 27 home runs and was within two of that number seven times.

Twenty-six Major Leaguers have cleared the 500 home run bar and none other had a career high as low as 33. Murray joined the club with a steady drumbeat of slugging. Bonds slammed 73, McGwire 70, Sosa 68, Ruth 60, Foxx 58, Mays 52, Aaron 47 . . . even Frank Thomas, another steady eddie, pounded more than 33 homers eight times, with a high of 43.

It wasn't just long balls. Consider Murray's doubles totals through 1996: 29, 32, 30, 36, 21, 30, 30, 26, 37, 25, 28, 27, 29, 22, 23, 37, 28, 21, 21, 21

He hit better (by OPS) than league average 1978-1988: 40%, 30%, 38%, 56%, 56%, 56%, 57%, 49%, 36%, 20%, 36%.

So which was Eddie Murray's best season? In 1984, he led the league with 107 walks and a .410 OBP, en route to that 157 OPS+. He finished fourth in the MVP voting. The year before he finished second, powered by a higher OPS and a .306-33-111 season. Was it 1982, another 156 OPS+ season, another runner-up MVP showing, when he posted an OPS another 10 points higher and a .316-32-110 tally. Or 1990, when he hit .330 in Dodger Stadium or 1985's 31 homers, 37 doubles and a career high 124 RBI?

From his Rookie of the Year award through his age 34 season, Eddie Murray had his best year every year and continued to be a productive player until he turned 40. 

26 April 2014

Second on First? How Great Is Albert's Career?

As you are no doubt aware, Albert Pujols entered the 500 HR club last week and then entered the 500+ HR club the next day. Prince Albert leads the AL in HR and slugging percentage at this very early stage, a welcome contrast to his last two seasons of decline and lost greatness.

Before that, of course, Pujols was a historically spectacular hitter for the first decade of his career, averaging .331/.426/.624 with 41 homers each year. Injuries and age have conspired to undermine him both at bat and afield just as he was inking a gargantuan new deal with Anaheim. Because he's been eclipsed by the likes of Cabrera, Trout and McCutchen, and because his team has sagged into mid-standings, we've been forgetting what an all-time great Pujols is even if he hangs up the uniform and forgoes the $189 million awaiting him through age 41.

In fact, when you start ranking first baseman, you get to Albert pretty fast. It's fair to say he is currently the third best cold cornerman of all time and might be second if he keeps this up.

The Iron Horse is in a class by himself, of course. In a career shortened by, well, death, Lou Gehrig added 112 wins against replacement, hit 79% better than average and finished in the top five in MVP voting eight times.

The careers of Jimmie Foxx and Johnny Mize overlapped with Gehrig's and they also towered over their contemporaries. Despite losing three prime seasons to WWII, likely worth about 20 WAR to his record, Mize piled up 71 WAR, hitting 58% above league average. You could make a good case fort Mize as fourth best all time.

Foxx, the quintessential slugger after Ruth and Gehrig, compiled 96 WAR and led the AL in OPS five times.

In fact, Foxx and Pujols are pretty good comparables:

Foxx --   .325/.428/.609
Pujols -- . 321/.409/.599 (so far)

Foxx --   OPS+ = 163; 96.4 WAR
Pujols -- OPS+ = 165; 94.2 WAR (so far)

Foxx --   MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 4
Pujols -- MVPs - 3; MVP Top 5 - 10 (so far)

Best 10 Seasons
Foxx --   .335/.440/.635; 41 HR; 171 OPS+
Pujols -- .331/.426/.624; 41 HR; 172 OPS+

Pujols is a better fielder and baserunner but Foxx showed a glint of Ruthian pitching prowess. In 1939 he threw a hitless ninth in a game for the Red Sox, recording one strikeout. Then in 1945, the Phils let him pitch nine times. In 23 innings he limited batters to 13 hits and four earned runs for a 1.59 ERA. (Pay no attention to the 14 walks and 10 strikeouts.) Take your pick now but Albert has an opportunity to surpass Double-X in short order.

After them, it falls off quickly. Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Willie McCovery, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Frank Thomas and Mark McGwire are among the next group of greats, but Pujols has already eclipsed them all. Unless these few weeks have been the last embers of Phat Albert's fire and we're to be subjected to seven years of padding, he's entering the Hall of Fame as the second greatest first baseman ever.

20 April 2014

Isn't April Great!


Twins keystoner Brian Dozier has 13 hits this year in 67 at bats, a .194 batting average. Yet he paces the junior circuit in runs scored with 18. That's the power of 13 walks.

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The Big Donkey had an uncharacteristic Little Gnat kind of game Saturday. He batted four times, hit three singles and stole a base. He neither walked nor struck out.

Over 1884 career games, Adam Dunn has walked, struck out or homered in exactly half his plate appearances. He has singled less than 10% of the time. And he has swiped all of six bases, including Saturday's, over the last six years. Based on his career, the odds of hitting three singles and stealing a base were roughly one in 150,000. But Saturday, it happened.

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Pirate outfielder Pedro Alvarez has hit safely 11 times so far this season. Six of those hits have left the yard. Despite batting .157, Alvarez is second in the NL in RBIs with 18.

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Some of the beauty of baseball lies in watching the emergence of new stars. Over the course of this season, fans will have the pleasure of witnessing the talents of some young stud or another.

We might start with the youngest player in the game, a mere 21-year-old. In his previous two seasons of pro ball he's batted .272/.354/.481 with 42 homers, 29 steals and sterling outfield defense. So far this season in the majors, it's been more of the same.

He's not yet a complete work, this youth. His new manager, discomfited with his nonchalance on the basepaths, pulled him from a game against the Cardinals Saturday. They'll both get over it and the youngster will get back to the outfield Sunday, newly humbled, to wreck more havoc against the opposition. 

Keep that context in mind when you consider the news about Bryce Harper. Two hundred seventy-three games into his career, he remains the youngest player in the game.

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Tim Hudson continues to deliver, even at age 39. In 30 innings so far, he's recorded 20 strikeouts. His next walk will be his first. That's a K/BB rate of, um, infinity.

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A 30-year-old first baseman named Chris Colabello, with three doubles in 160 MLB at bats on his MLB resume entering the season, presently paces the majors with nine two-baggers. He's hitting .359 and leading the AL in RBIs.

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Isn't April great!



19 April 2014

It's All Over But the Shouting

Here we are, one-tenth of the way into the season and it all seems to have been decided. 

The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.

It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted. 

This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.) 

Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross.  Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.

This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.

That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.

The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.

Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.

15 April 2014

How It All Went Wrong Fast in Philly Last Night

They made history in Philly last night -- and not just a little bit. And no one could have predicted it going into the eighth inning.

At that point, the two starters and two relievers had combined on a 2-1 affair, with all the runs coming on dingers by Ryan Howard and Evan Gattis. Bravers starter Ervin Santana was in line for the win, sporting a dandy six innings of four-hit ball with two walks and 11 punch outs.

It got quickly better as reliever BJ Rosenberg put his name in the record books. He faced three batters and the results looked like this: Evan Gattis - home run; Dan Uggla - home run; Andrelton Simmons - home run; now pitching, Luis Garcia. Atlanta led 5-1.

Luis Avilan joined Rosenberg by allowing a walk, three hits and a three-run jack to Dominic Brown in a five run eighth that put Philadelphia ahead 6-5. Spoiler alert: Avilan got the win -- the first time in 80 years that a pitcher earned the W with five earned runs in one frame. 

Jake Diekman came in for the Phils to finish it off and proceeded to strike out the side. Unfortunately for him, that came after he walked the Upton family en route to an Uggla grand slam. Uggla and Gattis combined for four hits in 10 trips to the plate -- all four of them home runs.

And that's how a 2-1 game after seven became a 9-6 final whose winning pitcher had the worst performance of the night.


14 April 2014

A Quick Scamper Around the Basepaths

Here is a one-question IQ test.

Which is better:

1. Running out a ground ball and getting thrown out at first.
2. Getting thrown out at first while diving into the bag thereby tearing a ligament in your thumb and missing six-to-eight weeks.

Sorry Mr. Hamilton: you failed the test. You'll have to return to the disabled list.

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When Paul Goldschmidt took Tim Lincecum yard in a weekend affair, it shocked absolutely no one. The Diamondback slugger has stepped to the plate 24 times against The Freak. He has 13 hits. Seven of them have left the ballpark. 

Tim? Does the term "intentional walk" mean anything to you?

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Charlie Blackmon update: When last we visited with the Rockies' lefty-hitting centerfielder, he was crushing the ball. He's cooled way off -- to .488/.500/.707, with just two whiffs in 44 visits to the plate. 

He does lead the majors in triples. With one.

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For last Monday's home tilt against the Angels, the then 3-3 Astros, coming off a spanking of the same Anaheim squad the previous day, drew a zero rating on television. According to Neilson, not a soul in the Houston metro area watched a Monday afternoon game featuring, if not anyone of interest on the home side, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson.

That zero is 17,936 less than the number of people who witnessed it live.

It's actually the second zero rating for the American League's worst team. They pulled a zilch in a late September contest against Cleveland last season. But at least that one followed 14 straight losses and had to compete head-on with a Texans game.

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Here's some good Astro news: Hurler Scott Feldman has allowed a run on seven hits -- in three starts. That 0.44 ERA looks really shiny . . . until you discover that he's walked eight fanned seven and hit five batters in 21 innings.

Feldman's ERA (0.44) is among the league's best. His strikeout rate (3.0/game) close to the worst. If one of them doesn't change soon, the other will.

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In 46 plate appearances so far, Phillies second-sacker Chase Utley has gotten aboard safely 26 times and pounded nine extra base hits. That's positively Bondsian . . . except Barry was seven years older and did it over a whole season.

06 April 2014

Stuff You Notice When Baseball's Back

For Pete's Sake
In 448 plate appearances for St. Louis last season, Pete Kozma slammed a solitary home run. 

During the off-season, the Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta to replace Kozma at short with a four-year, $55.5 million contract. 

It took Peralta eight plate appearances to match Kozma's home run total. Eight plate appearances later, he'd doubled that total.

Do the Cardinals even know how to do anything wrong?


You're On the Mark, Teixeira
Mark Teixeira is off to a fast start this year. The Yankee first baseman reached the disabled list in just four games with a strained hamstring. Last year he needed 15 games for the hamstring to keep him off the field. That's $45 million right there, Brian Cashman.

Charlie Blackmon Update
The baseball world breathlessly awaits updates on slugging sensation Charlie Blackmon. The Rockies outfielder followed his six-for-six game with a three-for-four performance. Slacker! They were all singles, dropping his slugging percentage 23 points.

Blackmon now paces the NL with a .600 batting average and a .619 OBP. That's half a million dollars right there, Brian Cashman.

#Karma
Ryan Braun has one hit and one walk in 17 plate appearances. According to this report by Richard Justice, a lingering thumb injury is holding him back. Or is that just his conscience?


05 April 2014

Opening Week Nibblings

It's been a Lake Wobegon kind of first week of the season: everything's been above-average.

Take Cliff Lee's opening day start for the Phillies. He faced the minimum 27 batters. That got him through just five innings, during which he got shelled for 11 hits, a walk, and eight runs, while recording just one strikeout. And "earned" the win in a 14-10 scrum.


Two days later, Matt Garza, now representing the good people of Milwaukee, who gave admitted cheater, self-righteous liar and cynical media-manipulator Ryan Braun an ovation, also faced the minimum 27 batters. It got him through eight solid frames against the Braves, during which he limited them to a run on two hits, a walk and seven strikeouts. He took the loss in a 1-0 game.

Hyun-jin Ryu got the loss that he earned in the Dodger home opener when the Giants lit him up for three walks, eight hits and eight runs in two frames. The four relievers who followed -- Jose Dominguez, Brandon League, Chris Withrow and Jamey Wright -- shut out and no-hit the Giants, surrendering just one walk and fanning 10.  

And then there was Mark Buehrle, late of the Toronto Blue Jays. His masterful first start against Tampa Bay came within an out of a complete game four-hit shutout. What was remarkable was the Buehrle struck out 11 Rays -- only the second time he's reached double-digits in his outstanding 15-year career. Even more amazing in a game where three-quarters of all strikeouts require a swing and a miss, Buehrle earned eight of his "K"s looking.

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A gentleman named Charlie Blackmon has apparently accumulated nearly 500  plate appearances with Colorado over the past three years. Who knew? He even hit .309 in spot duty last season. In the Rockies' fourth game this spring, Blackmon torched Diamondback pitchers for three doubles, a home run and two singles in six trips, a 1.000/1.000/2.000 slash line.   

Suppose that was the lefty centerfielder's first game (it wasn't). How many games could he go with a mediocre performance, like a single in four plate appearances, before his batting average dropped below .300? The answer is, it would take 21 more games to fall to .300. He would drop below that mark in his 23rd game. Until then, Blackmon leads the NL in slugging percentage at .963 -- after five tilts.

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You may have noticed that the Houston Triple-As claimed victory in the first two games of the season against the New York Hall of Famers. You might have wondered: what are the odds of that?

Let's do a little supposing and then a little (but not too much) math. Suppose the Astros are a 100-loss team and the Yankees are a 90-win team. Reasonable assumptions, right? And let's suppose that playing in Minute Maid* confers upon the home team a five percent advantage and upon the visitors an equal penalty. What's the likelihood that a .383 squad whips up on a .556 opponent twice in a row?

* Could you find a more pansy name for a ballpark than that? They should have stuck with Enron.

In that scenario, assuming they are what the projections say they are, Houston has a 43% of winning each game. But the odds that they take both is just 18.6%, or less than one-in-five. The Yanks had only a 32% chance -- about one in three -- of sweeping the first two contests. Game three went to New York, so Houston won the series two games to one. The chances of that were roughly one in three. Which is why it wasn't front-page news.

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You want shocking? How about this: Craig Kimbrel is toying with batters again. He's faced nine of them and whiffed six. The league is batting zero against him, with a zero OBP and a zero slugging average. There was that sharply hit infield grounder though. 


04 April 2014

Best & Worst New Metrics Part III: OPS

The days of explaining why batting average, home runs and RBIs don't adequately capture an everyday player's performance are long gone. Even the retrogrades who cling tenaciously to the old numbers recognize in their hearts why on-base percentage and slugging percentage are more comprehensive and why RBIs don't tell a useful story.

Adding on base and slugging gave us OPS, the shorthand statistic of choice to seamheads in the seamheady early days of the sabremetric movement. But analysts cannot live by OPS alone; indeed, OPS and its close relations, like OPS+, now long in the tooth, have become something of an anachronism, rarely used to make anything but the crudest point. 

The reason is simple: not all OPS is equal. Seamheads have long known that OBP is more important than slugging, about 20% more when talking about run creation. So simply adding the two numbers devalues on-base percentage.

OPS is not park-adjusted, position-adjusted or competition-adjusted. The narrative it creates doesn't describe whether a batter hits same-handed pitchers or has to be platooned. It's also largely irrelevant when discussing leadoff hitters, whose OBP is invaluable and whose slugging is not very valuable at all.

OPS was good to the analysis community in its prime, but has lost a step and is now little more than a veteran presence off the bench, backing up starters TAv, WAR/WARP and their ilk. We thank OPS for its contributions, particularly for introducing fans to better ways to measure players. and wish it the best of luck in its future endeavors.


02 April 2014

Bryce Harper Isn't Good, And Don't Say He Is

In his brief Major League Baseball career, young Bryce Harper has averaged a .272 batting average with 21 home runs and 58 RBI, while scoring 85 runs. Add in some dynamic baserunning and defensive play and he's provided the Nationals with an average of 4.3 wins despite missing 23 and 44 games in his two seasons.

That is the resume of a good player -- an above-average starter on any team, but not quite an All-Star. 

But Bryce Harper is not a good player.

Bryce Harper is an all-time great player whose odds of making the Hall of Fame are somewhere in the vicinity of 50%, with the bad half of the equation due almost entirely to possible injuries down the road.

In the Minor Leagues, it makes a big difference whether a prospect is 19 or 21. A good high-Single-A hitter at 19 is an organizational star. At 21 he's a guy.

Bryce Harper has hung two big boy seasons on his MLB opponents before he could legally buy a drink. He's made adjustments, been adjusted to and made new adjustments, and he's still getting better -- and bigger and stronger. He boosted his OBP 28 points last year to .368 -- higher than Jacoby Ellsbury's -- and that was despite a knee damaged by a pair of outfield wall collisions.

To get real perspective on Harper, here is the thin air in which he flies: The most similar 20-year-olds to him are George Davis, Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Ty Cobb and Buddy Lewis. Alone outside the Hall, Lewis was a fine-hitting third baseman and outfielder who lost three critical years to WWII, but nonetheless hit .297/.348/.420 for his career. And he wasn't half the player at 19 and 20 that Bryce Harper has been.

Harper's five-tool talent and competitive fire are undeniably world class; the only question about him is whether he can harness his desire and remain on the field. And that's the profile of a great player.