26 August 2011

The Illogic of Justin Verlander


I took a course in logic when I was in college. It was in the philosophy department. I was good at it because it was basically the rules of arithmetic. The concepts seemed intuitive to me, but it was Swahili to many of my classmates.

They couldn't understand that "nothing is good" is not the same as "not everything is good." They couldn't understand that if every Saturday we wash the car, and we've washed the car, that doesn't necessarily mean it's Saturday. They couldn't understand that a sample size of one does not constitute a scientific proof. They couldn't understand that just because every time A happens, so does B, that does not mean that A causes B.

These were smart people. Consequently, I conclude that most people are failures at logic. (This may be illogical.) This explains much of what I hear on sports talk radio, and that's before anyone calls in.

I heard an intelligent and respected sports talk radio host assert that Justin Verlander is the AL MVP because the Tigers are 20-8 when he's on the mound and .500 when he's not, thus, he's the reason they will win their division.

Did you count the flaws in logic there? I found five on a quick fly-by. All told, this reasoning is utter nonsense, yet I'll bet that neither the host nor anyone else involved in the broadcast is even vaguely aware that what he said makes no sense. Because most liberal arts majors don't learn how to think in college, reporters are generally ill-equipped to deal with questions of logic like this one. Let's examine it.

First, let's stipulate that Justin Verlander is a certified stud. He's led the league in innings and strikeouts twice and his ERA is 23% better than average over his six-year career, during which time he's 102-57, 3.55. This year, he's the leading Cy Young candidate, 19-5, 2.28 with 212 strikeouts, fewer baserunners than innings and a K/BB ratio nearing five. Yowzah. Certainly, he's helped the Tigers amass a winning record.

But Verlander isn't even the most valuable Tiger. That would be catcher Alex Avila, who plays everyday at a key position, hits like a left fielder (.304/.397/.529), handles the backstop well and has added 5.5 wins to the club. Miguel Cabrera (.965 OPS), Jhonny Peralta (.863 OPS at short), Victor Martinez (.815) and Brennan Boesch (.799) have added all-star quality batting lines. The rest of the lineup has also furnished some runs, so that Detroit has the fifth best offense in the American League. Justin Verlander hasn't contributed a wink to that.

Detroit pitching is another story, ranking 10th of 14 AL mound staffs. No other Tiger starter has delivered even an average performance this year, yet the next three members of the rotation sport a 33-24 record. In other words, the Tigers are a very good hitting club with lousy pitching. If they had a few good starters, they'd be challenging for the league's best record. When they do put their one outstanding pitcher on the hill, the results are, well, outstanding.

So let's review the logical flaws:
1. The Tigers are 20-8 when he's on the mound, therefore he's great. But as we've seen, much of any pitcher's record is a function of the hitting (and fielding) behind him.
2. The team is only .500 when everyone else pitches, so Verlander must be the main reason the Tigers win. As we've seen, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penney have a combined .578 winning percentage. In fact, most of the problem is the record of fifth starter Phil Coke (2-8) and the relief corps.
3. The Tigers succeed when Verlander pitches, therefore he's the reason for their success. It happens that there is a great deal of truth here, but correlation is not causation. Lots of bad pitchers have good records.
4. Because Verlander is the difference between a .500 team and a division winner, he's more valuable than other players whose contributions don't alter the standings. Even ignoring that the premise is false, and that the Tigers would still lead their division right now with a .500 record, the conclusion makes no sense. Does the speaker suggest that if Verlander were 28-0 with a zero ERA and 400 strikeouts but the Tigers were otherwise winless he'd be less of an MVP candidate?
5. The same conclusion fails another logical test. If the same Detroit contingent played in the AL East, where a 71-59 record would leave them battling for third place, would the same Verlander performance be less valuable? 

The same host dismissed Jose Bautista's candidacy because Joey Bats' Blue Jay pitching teammates rank in the bottom third of baseball. Bautista leads all of baseball in home runs, on base percentage, slugging, OPS, True Average, Value Over Replacement Player (at the position that features the best hitters) and Wins Against Replacement, all (except homers) by wide margins. Because he takes the field every day, Bautista ranks 82% more valuable to his team than Justin Verlander. That doesn't even account for the credible case you could make that if Toronto had an AL Central schedule while Michigan had to face NY, Boston and Tampa 18 times each, their records might be reversed.

The old saying about never arguing with a fool applies to illogical people, as Adlai Stevenson pointed out. There is no way to explain to a logically-deficient person that they're making no sense because they lack the tools to comprehend it. It's like advertising a great TV picture on TV. So reporters, talk show hosts and others with soapboxes from which to opine about baseball but without the requisite logic skills will continue to make these kinds of statements. And there's not much the rest of us can do about it but try to become a majority.
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21 August 2011

Catching Up


As if to put a fine point on my post about the San Francisco Giants, they lost a weekend series to the Astros. The Astros. With all due respect to the denizens of our fourth largest city, that is a minor league team. 

Having dispersed whatever bargaining chips they could (Michael Bourne, Hunter Pence, Jeff Keppinger) for prospects, the Astros are down to four Major League players: first baseman Carlos Lee and three pitchers, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and closer Mark Melancon. Lee is 35 and Rodriguez is 32 and will be again residing in Panama and the Dominican respectively the next time this team is relevant.

Houston is on pace to lose 107 games, but probably aren't even that good, since some of the wins they've banked are attributable to the play of the now-jettisoned trio named above. For the World Champs to succumb to this sorry squad suggests something is really rotten by the Bay. It's not too late for the Giants to regain their footing, but it's going to take a resurgence from Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Andres Torres, the parts that injected the critical offense last year but who have this year simply been offensive.

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The losingest franchise in baseball history is the first team to reach 81 wins this year and guarantee itself at least a .500 season. Here's what else the Phillies have achieved:

Over the last six years, the first team to 81 wins has ascended to the World Series five times and brought home the trophy three times. My first reaction was surprise at how well a team's record correlated with playoff success. But of course, that's not it at all. We're not talking about final records here, just records over the first 130 or 140 games.

What that statistic says, unless it's simply a quirk, is that the best team over the course of the season, regardless of their final record, is most likely to win playoff series. It gives further lie to the old saw about entering the playoffs on a tear. In fact, it's better to have the best three-quarters of the season and then coast the rest of the way. Align your rotation, rest your nicked-up regulars and don't worry about your final record or even the minuscule home field advantage.

The Red Sox and Yankees already know this, which is why you will not see a fight to the finish in the AL East. Whoever wins the division, c'est la vie. Both teams have bigger fish to fry.

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Just six of the 16 NL teams have winning records this year. Part of that is the AL's 131-121 inter-league advantage. Part is the hegemony of Philly, Atlanta and Milwaukee, all playing .590+ baseball. That every team within five games of .500 is below -- Washington, NY and Cincinnati -- is another piece of the puzzle.

Then there's one more piece. There should be one more team around .500. The Padres have outscored opponents this year ... and have won 12 fewer games than they've lost. Often that's a sign that your relief pitching is wanting, but Heath Bell is money and Mike Adams -- before he was traded -- was gold bullion.

Another explanation is a poor record in close games. San Diego has dropped 10 of 14 games in extra frames and 26 of 43 one-run games, while posting a winning record (14-13) in blowouts. A lack of depth could could be the culprit, as could a lack of professionalism. Padre batters turn into Madres in "late and close" situations, posting a putrid .228/.316/.304 line, while Padre hurlers are least effective (though still above average)in tie games.

Look for things to even out the rest of the way, particularly as minor league journeyman Jesus Guzman gets more starts at third. In his first 150 at bats this year he's smacked .333/.375/.547 and is already third on the team in home runs. 

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The race for the NL MVP seems locked up in my mind, with Matt Kemp lapping the field. Shortstops Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki have been outstanding, but Reyes hasn't been on the field enough and Tulo's combination of average  and power -- .371 OBP, 25 HR and 34 D, pales compared to Kemp's (.393 with 28 homers) in a tougher park. Ryan Braun, .398 with 24 HR, also combines power and average, but a butcher in left field needs to make up a lot of ground against an average center fielder.

The numbers seem even more definitive in the AL, but I'm not totally convinced. Toronto third baseman/right fielder Jose Bautista has been all-world this season at the plate, .316/.457/.639. with 35 home runs. But the numbers rankle me a bit.

First, Bautista did much of his damage in April and May, blasting 20 of his homers. In the last three months, he's hitting .280 with 15 home runs. Moreover, much of his value has come on walks. Since May, he's got more walks than hits.

Walks are important and under-rated in baseball, but they have diminishing returns. When your top slugger walks all the time, he's not slugging. It leaves other, less accomplished, hitters to drive him in. I don't begrudge Bautista his Bondsian OBP, but it doesn't seem quite as valuable as it otherwise might.

All this would be irrelevant if Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Adrain Gonzalez weren't killing it. The Grandy Man roams center, gets on base and hits moonshots at nearly Joey Bats' rate. He also runs like the wind, as does Ellsbury, whose 22 HR, 33 steals and stellar center field play warrant MVP attention. Gonzalez, .343/.403/.538, was an early threat, but he's hit two homers in six weeks and plays the least important defensive position.

All this is the long way of saying that Bautista and his remarkable 1.096 OPS remains the runaway leader, but I felt a lot more positive about him two months ago.
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20 August 2011

A Foundation of Hypocrisy


There's been a Hurricane of discussion about cheating in college athletics following a report, complete with documentation, that the entire city of Coral Gables has been consorting with a professional scumbag and violating NCAA rules -- not to mention the bounds of good taste -- for most of the last decade. 

These allegations are not shocking; they are inevitable. Major Division 1 sports programs make seven- and eight-figure profits on their men's football and basketball teams, not to mention the millions in alumni support that follows. In addition, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of lackeys, hangers-on wannabes and of course TV networks with opportunities to participate in the monetary orgy by spreading their largess advantageously.

That there has been massive cheating recently in revenue sports, that there is now and that there will be in the future is as mundane as old slippers. We'd better not hear any self-righteousness from any other BCS-level sports program. Their time will come.

Sports talk radio has been abuzz with solutions for the NCAA to implement, but they are all about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The NCAA is the problem. 

The simple, underlying truth is this: The entire structure of the student-athlete industrial complex in men's basketball and football is built on a foundation of hypocrisy. Division 1 men's football and basketball programs are not extracurricular activities; they are for-profit minor-league sports arms of their universities. Their sole purpose is to fund other activities at their schools and to drum up alumni support. As long as the NCAA -- or anyone else -- attempts to regulate revenue sports as if they are merely part of the fabric of the schools for which they raise money, they will continue to fail utterly.

In case you doubt that revenue sports are simply for-profit minor league sports franchises whose purpose is to generate profits for their sponsoring institutions -- does anyone still? -- ask yourself these questions: Why are college football and basketball coaches the highest paid state employees in most states? How do college-age athletes who can hardly read, but who make quarterbacks weep, get into some of the great universities in our country? Why do football and basketball seasons overlap into Christmas break, final exams week and even beyond the academic year? If football and basketball players aren't employees of their teams, why can't they hold jobs while they are undergraduates? (They are often the students most in need of paying jobs.)

Like someone in psychotherapy, the first step to change for the NCAA is to admit the problem. The very instant universities acknowledge that they are running for-profit minor league sports franchises their issues go away. The players can work as minor league athletes without falsifying transcripts, attending phony classes, paying stand-ins to take tests or generally acting like the scholars they aren't. The exchange of money will move above the table, draining it of its corruptive abilities. Boosters and other human annoyances will be free to throw around their coercions with reckless abandon and no once will care.

Some complain that under a more honest system, the richest schools will pay the highest wages and get all the best players. Pish. The richest schools already pay the highest wages and get all the best players. The payments are either under the table or in non-monetary form: peak athletic instruction, pipelines to professional sports rosters, TV exposure, bowl game travel, top quality training facilities, shiny new stadiums and arenas, etc. 

Others bemoan the demise of the student athlete. But nothing about this system prevents schools from providing college scholarships as part of the package. Nothing prevents them from agreeing to limit practices to non-class hours. 

The bottom line is that the current system doesn't work because it's a gigantic, steaming pungent pile of lies. Admitting the truth would make all of the corruption disappear. Poof! In revenue sports, as in most of the rest of life, honesty is the best policy.
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What, No Shutout?


Righthander Matt Cain pumps mid-90s heat, slider, change-up and a 12-6 Charlie to ERAs of 2.89, 3.14 and 2.86 the last three years.  Fat lot of good it's doing him.

Cain pitches in San Francisco, in front of the worst offense in the National League, and as a result he's only 10-9 this year and was only 13-11 last year. Through 26 starts in 2011, feckless Giant swingers have provided him with two runs or fewer in 12, three runs in five more, and more than three just nine times. 

For context, the Red Sox average more than five runs per. In his 27 lifetime starts, Ivan Nova's run support has topped two runs 23 times. In other words, Cain is absolutely snakebit, which is a good description of a Giants team that falls farther behind the Diamondback in the standings.

The reason is obvious: Scott Cousins. The Marlins' utility outfielder broke Buster Posey's leg in a home plate collision earlier this season, robbing the Giants of a goodly portion of their offense. Besides Posey and Pablo Sandoval (.308/.350/.512), the Giant lineup rattles in a paper cup. Their three top-paid regulars sport OBPs of .274 .284. and .298. Trade deadline coup Carlos Beltran went directly to the DL without passing GO, contributing exactly three extra base hits to his team, or the same number as pitcher Madison Bumgarner.

Speaking of Bumgarner, he's continued tearing up NL batters this year as part of the manly rotation the includes Cain, Tim Lincecum, Walter Johnson posing as Ryan Vogelsong, and Jonathan Sanchez. Alas, Bumgarner's 3.49 ERA and 4-1 K-BB ratio are not getting the job done with this sorry batting order. With sub-three run support in 11 of his 25 starts this season, his 7-11 record is hardly surprising. Nor is Tim Lincecum's 2.53 ERA and 10 Ks per game. The Freak sports an 11-10 record thanks to two-or-fewer runs of support in 12 of his 26 starts.

Giant brass can lament the parade of DL visits visited upon them, but it's not like much quality has been lost to injury beyond Posey and Kung Fu Panda's lost six weeks early in the season. Moreover, the franchise made a conscious decision not to seek a replacement for their broken backstop and the result has been a pair of backups vying to become the dictionary definition for offensive futility (225/.300/.352 from Eli Whiteside and .216/.286/.294 from backup Chris Stewart.)

The Big'uns recently snapped a record streak of 21 solo homers over five weeks, which was surprising only in that they had mustered that many big flies in 30 games. The team is on pace to finish 2011 without a single 20-HR hitter. Or 30 doubles. Or 20 steals. Or two wins above replacement, other than Sandoval.
The bottom line is that the World Champs have managed to under-score their competition despite the second best pitching in baseball and one of the best mound corps in Major League history. An amazing starting staff bolstered by a solid relief corps starring Brian Wilson (3.19 ERA), Sergio Romo (1.67) and Ramon Ramirez (2.89) should be lapping the feckless NL West. Instead, they've shifted into reverse and are now breathing Diamondback exhaust. If Tim Lincecum isn't in the playoffs this year, he and his pitching mates will know exactly whom to blame.
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13 August 2011

Who Are These D-backs and What Are They Doing To Our World Champs?


Stop the season right now and roll this around on your tongue: the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

Say what?

The Diamondwho? Can you name a single player on this squad? If Fox were to feature their game on a telecast (ha!), how would they promote the desert denizens? "Matt Kemp and the Dodgers face, uh, Chris Young and the Dbacks? in a desultory NL West showdown..."

The Snakes are the quintessential mystery/riddle/enigma outfitted in a uni. They've charged to 66 wins and a two game lead over the Giants by barely outscoring their opponents. They have the league's third best scoring offense without a star player -- or even many above-average hitters. Despite four decent starters and two reliable closers, their pitching has surrendered the fourth most runs in the league.

Not withstanding their best player -- outfielder Justin Upton -- there isn't a single player on the team with a .360 OBP or a .450 SLG. For context, a mediocre outfielder hits .340/.440. Upton is also the only player with more than 18 homers or more than 60 RBI. Their second best offensive threat has been third baseman Ryan Roberts -- (me either) -- who, at 30, has amassed 862 at bats while kicking around three organizations over six years. Roberts has stitched together a little of everything -- 51 walks, 15 taters, 14 steals -- for an offensive performance that's 17% above average.

And then, that's pretty much it. Others have contributed singular skills, like outfielder Gerardo Parra's seven of eight steals, Kelly Johnson's 18 bombs from the keystone and Brandon Allen's trio of homers in 29 at bats, but each is accompanied by debilitating deficiencies, like Johnson's .291 OBP.

Even the Amazing Kreskin must wonder how, playing in the balljack-friendly Bank One Ballpark, this motley crew can outscore all but two teams and rank sixth in the league in offensive VORP. 

At the same time, former Yankee first-rounder Ian Kennedy fronts a starting rotation that seems to be performing admirably, particularly in that park. Kennedy (15-3, 3.16); Daniel Hudson (11-8, 3.83); rookie Josh Collmenter (7-7, 3.48) and lefty Joe Saunders (8-9, 3.76) all sport ERAs that beat league average even without factoring in the neighborhood. 

Closer J.J. Putz is keeping runners off base (WHIP = 1.04) and in the park (.8 HR per 9 innings) while whiffing his share of batters (8.1 per nine). His go-to guy, rotund David Hernandez, boasts a 2.89 ERA, 5.6 hits per nine and a shiny 10.4 Ks per nine. (An abundance of walks is all that separates him from greatness.) An assortment of good, bad and indifferent populate the rest of the pen. All told, the pitching checks out sixth best in the NL in VORP, which takes the BoB into account.

So the sixth best offense and the sixth best defense produces the fourth best record in the National League. But the talent level doesn't support the results. I wouldn't bet against San Francisco's all-world rotation passing the D-backs in the last 40 games. Until then, the no-name Slitherers are making life difficult by the Bay and polishing manager Kirk Gibson's bonafides. If they win the division, we may have trouble believing what we just saw.
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06 August 2011

Miracle on 161st Street


They entered the season with only three reliable starting pitchers, one of whom would miss much of the 2011 campaign. Their star shortstop and catcher are getting creaky. Their roster includes more retreads than a used car lot. The dessicated remains of Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez actually get playing time, despite 3.7 wins above replacement combined over the last four years. Their superstar cornerman is dinged and running from the MLB law. Their huge free agent reliever walked six batters a game before pulling up lame. All 700 pounds of Bartolo Freakin' Colon has 18 starts for them already this year.
They play in the toughest division in baseball and they didn't make a single trade deadline deal for the first time since the Paleolithic Era.* So the Yankees are toast, right?

Kudos to Joe Girardi, Brian Cashman and team management in the Bronx. Two-thirds of the way through a lost season they're tied for the best record in the American League with a starting rotation right out of 2001. They've managed to spin Colon, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova into gold. They stuck with David Robertson out of the pen and he's rewarded them with a 1.44 ERA, no home runs allowed and 14 strikeouts per nine. Somehow this squad ranks second in the circuit in ERA ... and that's their weakness.

At bat, it's no surprise that the Bombers are a juggernaut. They're second in scoring in the majors with 5.38 runs per game, led by three starters with .500+ SLG (and ARod is close). Derek Jeter at short and Russ Martin behind the plate are rebounding from awful starts, and  keeping Jorge Posada away from lefties (he's hitting .103 against them) short-circuits the only black hole in the home half of the inning. Absent Posada versus southpaws, every one of their hitters ranks above replacement value, which is a fancy way of saying their bench is solid too, They've even swiped 120 of 156 bases as a squad, a superb 77% rate.

To top it off, the Bronx brass refused to succumb to deadline deal extortion and instead let a flaccid trade market go untouched. The Yankees may have locked up the most productive trade deadline week by demonstrating disciplined restraint. Without sacrificing either of their catching uber-prospects, they got Soriano back from the DL last week and will welcome back Alex Rodriguez next week, Bud willing.

I'd still be a tad concerned, were I other than a Yankee-antagonist, about the pitchers they'll run out after Sabathia come playoff time. Garcia, Colon and Nova could turn into pumpkins any day now. But with Robertson, Rivera and perhaps Soriano locking up the late innings and a lineup that could scare Chuck Norris, they will once again be a force to be reckoned with once the post-season arrives.

*May be slight exaggeration.
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02 August 2011

Tripleheader of Yuks


Did you hear the one about the unwritten rule? Man, I love that joke!

The Tigers and Angels staged an impromptu amateur night at Comerica this weekend. Apparently, a Cy Young match-up of Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander and the playoff possibilities underlying the contest were insufficient to stir the passions of the opposing teams. So after Magglio Ordonez paused at the plate to see if his tater would stay fair, Weaver launched into the old "disrespect" chestnut.

"I had a lot of respect for those guys, but then they stand at the plate and do something like that. I felt disrespected by that."

Ho! That one never fails to crack me up. Weaver could have really gone for the big yuks by stamping his feet and whining, "quit making fun of me!"

Verlander could never had come up with that whopper. After all, he didn't allow any homers. Poor schmuck!

Well, the only thing funnier than a great comedy classic is the comic rejoinder. Here's that master of timing, Carlos Guillen: "Magglio has 14 years in the major leagues. You don't tell him to run."

Whoo-hoo! It's the old 14-year rule! If preening at the plate makes you a jerk, putting in 14 years of Major League service exempts you! Think of all the great things Tim Wakefield can do!

Following Ordonez, Guillen homered, showboating on his way around the bases. Let's let the Associated Press pick up the thread from there (with some edits for space): "Guillen flipped his bat, posed at the plate and skipped a few steps sideways, prompting Weaver to yell at him before Guillen rounded the bases. Sensing trouble was coming, plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt warned both benches. But Weaver threw the next pitch near (Alex) Avila's head and was quickly ejected along with Los Angeles manager Mike Scioscia."

Isn't that great? Weaver showed those stupid Tigers what respect is all about -- by throwing a baseball 90 mph at the head of a guy who hadn't bothered anyone. Why hasn't Chris Rock thought of this whopper?!

Not to be outdone, Justin Verlander staged this oldie-but-goodie when Erick Aybar attempted to bunt for a hit leading off the eighth. The big cat fireballer had a no-hitter at the time. "I know it was only 3-0, so I can understand there are arguments on both sides, but as a pitcher, we call that bush league."

I know! I hate it when the other team tries to get a hit! Imagine if they did that all the time.


Isn't it time we eliminated this sort of disrespect and subterfuge from baseball? No more high-fiving after a dinger. No more fist-pumping after a good play. No more cheering. No more expressions of excitement of any kind, That's disrespectful.


And no more of that bush league stuff. No more stolen bases, pickoff attempts, throwing behind the runner or other fakery. In fact, no more twisty pitches. Everything has to be straight, so batters know what's coming.


No only will that improve the game, it will add a jolt of excitement into the game. Thank you Jered Weaver, Carlos Guillen and Justin Verlander for showing us what a great game baseball truly could be. I hope you all have 14-year careers.
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