Humans like to ascribe causes to effects. We like to connect meaning to events. We're loath to admit how much of life is simply dumb luck, and how often it is not simply "the residue of design."
That's why mis-employing statistics in baseball can really distort our perspective on actual performance.
I'm watching the Braves-Mets game in Atlanta. (Take I-26 west to Columbia for 100 miles and then west on I-20 for about 150 miles.) One out in inning two and Tim Hudson's pitch entices Carlos Delgado's left hip and right elbow to snap in opposite directions. The result is a puff ball that bubbles just to the right of second base. Shortstop Yunel Escobar gets a late jump and the ball scoots under his glove.
"Renteria would have had that," I noted to Tater, who doesn't seem to remember who played short for the '07 Braves.
Rightfielder Ryan Church follows that by grounding one under the mis-timed dive of second-baseman Martin Prado. Delgado rumbles safely to third when Chipper Jones goes to the wrong side of the runner on Jeff Francouer's throw.
"That kind of defense," I mutter to Tater, "is going to inflate Brave ERAs." She seems more focused on the ongoing petting.
Angel Pagan bats with first and third and smacks a double-play ball right at Escobar. He flips to Prado who fumbles the transfer, allowing Delgado to score and the inning to continue.
So Tim Hudson, a groundball pitcher, lures three consecutive batters into hitting groundballs, every one of which should have been an out. Instead, he's given up two hits and an earned run. Pagan, who did the only thing he had to avoid gets an RBI. Delgado, who was fooled worse than a Mugabe supporter, is credited with a hit and a run scored despite a semi-sorta-slide into third that would embarrass a Little Leaguer.
Multiply that by 162 games, and it's easy to see how much of a role luck can play in team results and personal statistics alike.
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