No Icing Needed

Recent surgical developments may have mootified it -- yes, I made up that fine new word -- but Curt Schilling's Hall credentials have been the subject of much discussion the last few days.

The consensus on Schill seems to be that he's a marginal candidate pushed over the line by spectacular post-season performances. I find two semi-fallacies here.

Post-season performances are not irrelevant, particularly now that players upon whom fate, and Mr. Steinbrenner, smiles can do a year's worth of toil in the playoffs. (See Jeter, Derek - 495 AB; Pettitte, Andy - 35 starts.)

For all of his World Series ubiquity, Whitey Ford pitched in 22 post-season games. (The World Series and post-season were synonymous before 1969.) Schilling has pitched in 19 post-season games, most of them brilliantly.

Nonetheless, 19 games, no matter how transcendent, do not merit a sculpture. Were Schilling really a borderline candidate for the HOF, I would hardly be swayed by a bloody sock.

Here's the rub: This cake needs no icing. Curt Schilling is a Yale lock, not a borderline case. Forget the won-loss record, although at 216-142 it's nothing to sneeze at even in allergy season. Curt Schilling has had a remarkable career. Amassing 3,116 strikeouts against just 711 walks puts Schilling among the very elite in K/BB ratio. While that's a fairly esoteric statistic, it's most telling, because pitchers who make their own outs, keep guys off the bases and the ball in the park are great no matter who's defending behind them. (He has a good HR/game ratio too.)

Schilling's 3.46 ERA looks mediocre by Hall standards, but remember that context is everything. Making just 60 of his 438 career starts before 1994, his career encompasses a big offensive era. Compared to him, Don Sutton's 3.26 ERA pales (it translates to 4.23 in an average offensive park and era), as does Catfish Hunter's 3.26 (translates to 4.43) and even Juan Marichal's 2.89 (3.90).

In fact, let's compare Schilling to Sutton, a borderline HOFer; Marichal, a surefire HOFer; and Fergie Jenkins, another HOF lock. (I left out Hunter because he's in the Hall primarily because he played for great teams and had a cool nickname. Better pitchers than Catfish should be shut out.)

With a 324-256 record and 3,574 strikeouts, Sutton managed more wins and whiffs than Schill, but at the cost of double the walks and a far worse winning percentage. Moreover, comparing how they pitched relative to contemporary league average, Schilling was twice the pitcher Sutton was. Sutton makes up a lot of the difference with longevity.

Like Schilling, Marichal lacked the voluminous win total but prevailed in a noteworthy percentage of his decisions. His contextual ERA is higher and he struck out 1,000 fewer batters while issuing the same number of free passes. Relative measures have Schilling at nearly twice the value and for longer.

Versus Jenkins, it's more of a hash. The Canadian chalks up 70 more wins, the Alaskan 80 fewer losses. Their relative ERAs are similar, though Schilling has the edge. Jenkins fanned a few more batters; Schilling walked 180 fewer. Schilling finished in the top 10 in ERA nine times during his career; Jenkins eight times. Over their careers, Schilling is slightly more valuable per game, but because Jenkins ate innings, he amassed more total value.

By the way, while those 60s, 70s and 80s hurlers manned up for 300 innings a year, Curt Schilling is no wuss. He finished in the top three in the league in complete games nine times.

Better than Juan Marichal and even with Fergie Jenkins: is that a career that needs help getting in the door at Cooperstown? Post-season schmost-season. Put Curt Schilling, his sock, his mouth, his blog, and his fastball in a display case on the banks of the Otsego.