Achievement of Omission

You probably didn't notice that the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Washington Capitals 2-1 in game 7 of their opening round (i.e., there are rounds to go before we can even start calling them names, like quarterfinals) series. 

You didn't notice because, let's face it, who can keep track of the hundreds of hockey playoff games?

You can also be forgiven for failing to notice that the Habs were the bottom seed in the tournament and the Caps were the top seed. You'd think that would be back page news, right?

Ha! Nearly one-third of the match-ups between the best team in the conference during the regular season and some below .500 also-ran goes to the mediocrity. Eight seeds are 9 of 32 in these series over the 16 years they've existed.

Of course, this makes you wonder the point of the regular season in the NHL. Thank you Major League Baseball for your omission in that regard.

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Antiques Roadshow In Philadelphia

My wife loves watching Antiques Roadshow, a TV program whose star is stuff. Experts estimate the value of goods carted in by ordinary people, often in the six figure range. The items selected for the small screen are, of course, mostly the outliers highly prized by collectors and others bulging with disposable income.

Often the priceless items in question have little function and no aesthetic value (to me), but are “worth” stacks of large denominations to someone. Their “value” is determined by whatever someone will pay for them.

At the risk of comparing Ryan Howard to a Qing Dynasty vase, and the Philadelphia Phillies to a Saudi prince, the same dynamics seem to be in place in the case of yesterday’s five-year, $125 million contract extension. Already working under a deal that will pay him $19 this year and $20 million next year, Howard’s services at first base have been secured until he’s 37 years old.

Is this a good deal? In one sense, of course. The Phillies will retain one of their stars through his productive playing days. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t jump at the chance to write a name into their everyday lineup that could reliably deliver 40 dingers and 130 RBI.

In a market sense, no. Ryan Howard, affable though he is, is a one-dimensional star who can’t hit southpaws, gets around the bases like a Yugo, flashes iron in the field and is on course to join the Mo Vaughn Aging Club when he hits his mid-30s. Beasts of his magnitude are often one one-hundredth of a second of reaction time away from DHing for an NL club. By 2015, the Phils are likely to be paying ARod money for David Ortiz, circa 2010. Is there a GM so utterly unhinged as to offer Howard vast riches for five years starting at age 32, when he reaches free agency?

The answer is: yes, there is one. Ruben Amaro, GM of the Phils, and not because he’s suddenly contracted drunken sailor syndrome. Howard has value to Philly beyond his market prospects because he’s part of a core of players who’ve catapulted the club to the championship series two years running and still have an open window of opportunity. Howard’s a Philly icon, a known-quantity, a clubhouse-energizer and a high-character franchise enhancer. Keeping him might be the difference between the World Series and the playoffs, or between the playoffs and a quiet October of leaf-peeping in Vermont. There’s a ton of marginal value there.

Moreover, with a newish ballpark and two pennants flying, the Phils have the cash to ink deals with the rest of the core. This is not the Oakland A’s, for whom every signing represents a tradeoff.

Also worth noting is that human beings are not roulette wheels whose odds of producing desired outcomes are known and unchangeable. Howard improved his conditioning and his defense last year and demonstrated that despite the hale-fellow demeanor, he’s prepared to work for greatness. He’s much more agile afield now, indicating to the Phils that he’s a better bet than some of his comparables.

So the Phillies may have spent too far into the future for success in the next three or four years, but if you’re a fan, you’re reaching for a malt beverage. Just hope the league doesn’t start loading up lefties against your lineup.

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Fait Accompli and Other Stories

The 2010 Major League Baseball season has an NBA aura about it this year. 

In the NBA, they played a whole season, and have begun their two months of playoffs, basically to determine who will face the Lakers in the finals. It has this interminable air of inevitability.

The MLB season feels the same way. Just 1/8th of the way through the schedule, the season feels like an exercise in determining whom the Yankees will oppose in the World Series. They've got the best hitting, starting pitching, bench, relief pitching, depth, resources and organization in baseball. They've added speed and defense to a championship club this year. They have no David Ortiz-sized question marks. 

What don't they have? Matt Kemp is the best-looking player in baseball. So that's one for the Dodgers. Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Anaheim have the nicest stadiums. The Phillies may clinch by Flag Day. After that, it's the English Premier League -- Manchester United vying with whoever else might be hot this year.

Sigh.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's 2010, right? MLB includes OPS in its summaries. ESPN lists on-base percentage on its broadcasts. Does everyone at Fox live in a cave and watch only reality shows?

Comparing Mark Teixeira to Kendry Morales, the player who replaced him in Anaheim, Joe Buck and Eric Karros noted that the latter was a perfect generic knock-off at a GDP-sized discount. It's a valid point and a worthwhile discussion. (To his credit, Karros added that Teixeira is a more accomplished fielder.)

Buck pointed out that Morales "hit better" because Morales hit .306, Teixeira, .292. Tex also coaxed 40 more walks and posted a .383 OBP compared to .355 for Morales. Their power numbers were nearly identical, which is to say, Tex "hit better."

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It's a small point in this discussion and doesn't change the underlying theme, but isn't it time that people paid millions of dollars to talk about baseball get within a generation of the times? I mean, where's the beef?

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Hi-oh Silva!

Check out these two pitchers:

Guy One: 4-18, 7.03 RA; 1.4H/IP; 1.8 K/BB; 1.22 HR/9; 3.89 K/9

Dude Two: 2-0, 1.90 RA; .52H/IP; 6.0 K/BB; .47 HR/9; 5.7 K/9

Fellow #1 is a soft-tosser whom hitters have figured out like Monday's crossword puzzle. The opposition's taking him all over the yard, and out of it, because he's fooling a batter every third inning -- which could simply be the opposing pitcher. He's like Sarah Palin -- the opposition is begging to face him.

Fellow #2 has a much better clue. His pinpoint control is helping him keep people off base and inside the park. He's Bobby Jindal -- the other team doesn't want to reckon with him.

If you're never alone with a schizophrenic, Carlos Silva always has a friend. The first line is his last two years in Seattle. The second line is his 2010 so far for the Cubs. 

As you can see, past results are no guarantee of future earnings. Nor should we assume his hot start is a predictor going forward. The NL hasn't seen the 6'4" Venezuelan before and may take a few turns through the circuit before they start treating him like the Hacky Sack so beloved by AL batters and their agents. In addition, Silva has moved to a weaker league that sends a non-Major League hitter to the plate every ninth turn. 

Nonetheless, that's quite a transformation -- so far -- for a guy whose fastest pitches the last two years were clocked going in the other direction.

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Ouch!

Good news for the long relievers on the Nationals this year: Jason Marquis is a starter. Job Security!

Last night, Marquis faced seven batters and retired only himself. Four singles, two hit batsmen and a walk later, Marquis headed for the showers. Well, in a manner of speaking. How much do you sweat on a spring day in D.C. before most fans have settled into their seats?

Miguel Batista munched up five innings in relief, but saved his best for first, relinquishing a grand slam to slugger Craig Counsel (40 home runs in 15 Major League seasons) that capped Marquis's day. Zero innings, four hits, seven runs, all earned, one walk and no strikeouts. De-licious! Marquis is now 0-3 with a 20.52 ERA. In three starts he's completed eight innings. But this is the Nationals, so he'll get a fourth start.

Marquis's outing was simply a diversionary tactic for Gavin Floyd, the 6'6" White Sox righty who allowed a home run, double, four singles and four walks, threw a wild pitch and surrendered seven Cleveland runs before he could record the game's fourth out. Four Chicago relievers pitched seven scoreless innings behind him on two hits, striking out eight. Dear Ozzie: next time, start with the relievers.

In a way, it's worse for the Sox. Washington has the same chance of success this season as the opposition party in North Korea, regardless of Jason Marquis's exploits. On the South Side, though, they have delusions of adequacy this year, especially in the wide open AL Central. They are counting on Floyd to help anchor a strong pitching staff that boasts Mark Buherle, John Danks, Freddy Garcia and Jake Peavy, with Bobby Jenks out of the pen. 

Both these guys have long resumes of thoroughly middling Major League service. A disastrous start or three may or may not mean a thing. In Chicago, it actually matters.

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Not Close To A Perfect Game

Thank you, Ubaldo Jimenez.

At the very moment I was expressing my disdain for the no-hitter, Jimenez was finishing off a paradigm for my argument.

Jimenez and his blazing speedball registered the first no-no in Rockie history last night in a 4-0 whitewash of the Braves. Complete game shutouts are accomplishments in and of themselves. That Atlanta didn't reach safely via a hit is really just statistical noise, noteworthy only because we note it.

It's not as if Jimenez set the Braves down in order for nine innings -- far from it. He surrendered six walks. (He also balked a runner to second.) He certainly had to be a little lucky that none of them crossed the plate. Moreover, he also needed some defensive heroics to keep the Braves out of the hit column.

Jimenez's achievement will go into the record books for posterity to admire, but was his performance  even the best of the day? How would you compare it to the work of Roy Oswalt, who shut down the Cubs in Wrigley on five hits in seven innings while walking none and striking out six? I'd give Jimenez the edge, but only because he gave relievers the night off. How about Jaime Garcia, who goose-egged the Mets on two walks and one single in seven innings? Or Johan Santana, whose seven innings against the Cards included just four hits and one walk, but nine strikeouts? Or Livan Hernandez, a complete game, four-hit shutout winner over Milwaukee, who walked two and struck out three? In terms of total bases per inning, Garcia outclasses Jimenez. For runners on base per nine, Hernandez takes the trophy. In terms of domination, Santana's strikeout per frame give him the best mark.

Regardless, the fact that we can name four pitchers who pitched about as well as Jimenez on the same day indicates that there was nothing extraordinary about his performance. As Einstein pointed out, not everything that's counted, counts.

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A short addendum to the Mets-Cards extravaganza, won by NY 2-1 in 20. The star-studded Mets lineup not only shot blanks through 17 turns at bat, but managed just two runs in the last three frames against non-major league pitching. It's one game -- really two-plus -- but it does not bode well for the Metropolitans.

On the other hand, Tony LaRussa is sometimes too clever by half. He pulled relief pitchers in mid-inning with no one in scoring position four times after the ninth in order to leverage a small lefty-right advantage, leaving himself out of professional pitching three innings before the end of the game. By the time shortstop Felipe Lopez tossed the 18th and Kyle Lohse staffed left field, LaRussa had reduced the red birds' chances of winning to near zero.

The Cardinals are the popular choice for Central division champs, and I wouldn't bet against this franchise, but they'd better find another hitter after Superman and Matt Holliday. I guess Ryan Ludwick, a .271/340/.489 lifetime hitter with 59 homers the last two seasons, provides some pop, but beyond him the back seat in this road trip looks mostly empty. That's exactly the stars and scrubs approach that landed the Mets in doggy-poo last year.

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Notes From A Snoreless Tie

Notes after watching the Mets and Cards play 15 16 17 18 19 20 innings of snoreless baseball...

Jose Reyes is not himself. His plate coverage is compromised, his eye is off and his confidence is shot. He can't run down grounders that he used to gobble up. He's just another base runner. He's bereft of the joie de vive that made him such a fan favorite.

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A taut, low-scoring, extra-inning affair in July is nerve-wracking. A listless, scoreless, April reliever-eater in which pitchers bat with the bases loaded, sluggers take the double collar and infielders pitch in crucial situations is downright insomnia-curing.

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Albert Pujols has hit more home runs than anyone in baseball history in his first 10 years. Prince Albert has 371, just ahead of Eddie Matthews (370), Ralph Kiner (369), Ken Griffey Jr. (350) and Alex Rodriguez (345). Did you catch that? Pujols has only played nine years. This is number 10. So he'll own the record by 35 blasts when the season's over.

That's not all. Hitting home runs isn't Albert's primary skill. He's the best hitter for average on that list, takes a walk with the game's best and has a mantle filled with gold gloves. We need some new superlatives for this guy.

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Johan Santana has pitched three games this year effectively but for one disastrous frame. Look out. The Venezuelan southpaw is an oil well ready to gush. Dude had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow six months ago and hasn't yet recovered all of his zing or snapped off a patented Santana slider. Nonetheless, he's relinquished a total of two runs in 17 of his 18 innings. Come summer, hide the women and children; he's going to be a beast.

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It's a sign of the apocalypse when a TV commercial showing a guy jump out his third story window onto the top of a speeding beer truck has to scroll the warning "Professional stuntman. Do not attempt." It seems to me that Darwin would very much approve of someone who requires that warning attempting the stunt. Are people who need to be dissuaded from it capable of reading in the first place?

Streaking on the Diamond

As Goobers' third baseman Dickie Sunog y Mino steps to the plate, play-by-play announcer J.P. Bagel intones that the switch-hitting veteran has opened the season by singling on a 2-2 pitch in each of his first nine games. "Hmmm," you think.

Next up, left fielder Anders Golland. Color analyst Alex Nobelprize notes that the D.C. native knocked a single in his first game, a double in his next, a triple in his third, a homer in his fourth, and then repeated the pattern in his next four games. No one else has ever started a season that way, he adds. "Wow, that's interesting," you say to yourself.

Batting third is Ray Rothenberg, the rookie catcher. Bagel reminds his listeners that the young backstop has walked and scored in each game so far this season. "That's good," you figure.

It's easy to see that each of these occurrences is more statistical quirk than accomplishment. Even in the case of the number two hitter, while six extra base hits in eight games is laudable, accumulating them in a particular pattern is random and not particularly noteworthy. With respect to the third batter, walking is a good outcome that helps lead to a score, but the combined result generally requires significant contributions from teammates.

It's been encouraging therefore, that the baseball media has given as scant attention to Jorge Cantu's nine game streak of hitting safely and knocking in a run as political analysts give to the actual issues. Maybe it was the relatively short duration of the streak that prevented a critical mass of hype from building, but then again, maybe it was the recognition that a nine-game hitting streak isn't unusual and an RBI is a team event. Pushing across a run with a base hit requires no less cooperation from others as scoring after a walk does. 

In fact, a hitting streak is a kind of hollow accomplishment that is two parts luck for every one part skill. The reasons are obvious if you're a baseball fan; it's worth mentioning that a player who is intentionally walked three times and lays down a critical sac bunt in his other plate appearance is penalized, but a guy who goes one-for-five on a squibbler past the mound keeps the streak alive. 

For some reason, ordinary fans and media seem to understand the randomness of the no-hitter, hitting for the cycle and Cantu's streak. It seems to me a baby step to understanding the semi-randomness of RBIs.

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Pitcher, Deconstructed

In the first wave of sabermetrics, back in the days when pencil-necks with bad skin and no friends wiled away their solitary existences knee deep in notebooks, calculators and newspaper sports sections, the emphasis was on deconstructing the statistics we were familiar with -- e.g., RBIs, batting average and pitcher wins -- and demonstrating their unworthiness.

In the next wave, a growing cadre of socially-adjusting statheads examined context, recognizing that a home run hit in Dodger Stadium, or in 1968, or in a tie game, is worth more than a home run hit in Denver, or in 2002, or in a six-run game.

The third sabermetric epoch, which persists, is focused on the deconstruction of each individual play, which is now recorded for posterity in atomized detail for everyone to see instantly and simultaneously, in order to assess credit and blame for every result. How much responsibility do the batter, the pitcher, the shortstop, the centerfielder and dumb luck have for a given play. Clearly, the two fielders bear no responsibility for a home run, walk, strikeout or hit by pitch. But even those bear scrutiny between the hurler and hitter.

For years, we assigned blame to pitchers for walks and offered little, if any, kudos to the batter, who after all, simply lallygagged at the plate with the bat on his shoulders. We have since discovered that batters have very different abilities in that area and deserve vastly more credit for "earning" a free pass. (We've also come to realize that walks are enormously important.)

What about other kinds of plays that involve base runners and multiple fielders? Except for recording errors, the box score gives little notice to the defensive unit, and makes no effort at all to acknowledge luck. But recent research has demonstrated that defense and luck are big parts of the game. In fact, this generation of statheads -- Ivy League literature majors who run marathons and gather around the nation by the hundreds -- has found methods of analyzing every kind of batted ball (e.g., fly balls, line drives, grounders, pop-ups, etc.) and applying 100 years of past performance to determine how many of them should, on average and adjusted for ballpark and era, turn into hits. They then compare defensive units to the average and compute their defensive efficiency. 

Here's where it gets fun. Consider a ground ball hit with medium velocity between first and second. If the second-sacker is a slacker, the ball trickles into right field and the batter gets a hit that the pitcher surrenders. Suppose instead that the keystoner reads the swing and breaks to the ball, snares it, and flips to first for the out. Lousy at-bat, good pitching, even though the interaction was exactly the same.

Over the course of a game, and certainly a season, some infields will turn more of those grounders into outs than other will. Some outfields will run down more apparent gappers than others will. And some pitchers will be the beneficiaries while others will watch their ERAs balloon. Hence a recent development: defense-independent pitching statistics. Sabermetricians have attempted to glean the pitchers' responsibility from things like defense.

We still haven't accounted for luck. If the ground ball is six feet to the left, any second baseman makes the play. Three feet to the right, none does. Batters generally can't (absent the occasional Ichiro) so finely deliver their hits and pitchers are simply passive actors in those sorts of plays.

The recently discovered truth is that pitchers have a limited amount of control over what happens to balls put into play (that does not include fly balls that clear the fences), which is another way of saying that defense and luck are vastly under-appreciated (by the fans, but no longer by front offices, which have teams of SABR members crunching these sorts of numbers into nubby granules.) They've also discovered that since pitchers control home runs, walks and strikeouts (and HBP, for what little it's worth), that measuring those occurrences only is often more descriptive of a pitcher's performance. The math is stultifying, particularly if you're flummoxed by the profound complexities of single-digit addition, but suffice to say that if you want to predict which starter will pitch well this year, find a guy with a high strikeout-walk ratio and few home runs allowed last year, and ignore his W-L record and even his ERA.

Let's take the example of Tim Hudson's five and two-third inning outing against San Diego for the victorious Braves last night. The veteran righty recorded the win, surrendering just two runs, for an ERA of a 3.18. Bobby Cox is happy, no? Well, Hudson walked five batters, fanned no one and served up a dinger. He also got relief help from Kris Medlen when he ran into trouble in the sixth inning, and more bullpen support over the last three innings to preserve the win. He certainly wasn't fooling anyone, and Padre batters managed to hit safely at just a .261 rate on balls in play, much lower than the league average of .300 or so.

It's likely that Hudson benefited from some combination of strong defense behind him and good luck. He allowed 11 baserunners, including a double and home run, and probably should have relinquished another safety or two. The five free passes and the inability to strike anyone out has got to agitate Cox's digestive juices; he certainly can't be counting on a season of .261 BABIP against Hudson.

So? We still haven't completely divorced pitching results from all the extraneous factors at work in a game or a season, and much of the defensive measuring is still guesswork's second cousin. But scientific gains are made slowly and incrementally, and the information we have now about pitcher value is more illuminating than wins and ERA ever were.

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A Winning Argument

A quick refresher course for people who still count pitcher wins.

Yesterday, Chris Carpenter wobbled through five innings against the Brewers, surrendering seven runs on three jacks. He was awarded no decision, as his Cardinals tallied five runs in the last three innings before succumbing in the ninth.

Justin Verlander got yanked after five innings and one batter, behind 6-1 to Cleveland. Because Tiger bats thereafter exploded for nine runs, he was off the hook.

Tom Gorzelanny of the Cubs also recorded no decision for his 6.3 innings of work. Unlike Carpenter and Verlander, he gave up only one unearned run on four hits and struck out seven.

The Orioles’ Kevin Millwood would have appreciated a no-decision. He absorbed the loss against Toronto despite yielding just one earned run in 7.7 innings, walking no one and fanning six.

The same for Roy Oswalt, whose six-inning, two-run, eight-strikeout performance was overshadowed by the opposing pitcher – Roy Halladay’s – complete game gem. Count that loss against Oswalt’s career stats.

Trevor Hoffman got a win, though, for his brilliant inning of work holding St. Louis to three runs -– including two long balls -- before his Milwaukee teammates bailed him out in the bottom of the frame.

In summary, when we determine this year’s Cy Young candidates, win counters will credit Hoffman for his performance, debit Oswalt’s and Milwood’s accounts and wonder why, if Tom Gorzelanny is such a good pitcher, he hasn’t won any games.
The correct answer, of course, to those baseball writers who still pose those kinds of questions is, “you’re an idiot.”
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A Good Start Is A Good Start

There's some good news out of Detroit, and I don't mean that people are buying Fords again. At the risk of over-analyzing one week of play, two key Tigers have brought smiles to the Comerica faithful.

Miguel Cabrera hit .323 with 33 homers in his first campaign with Detroit last year, but was seen as lackadaisical about his play and his conditioning, brought to a head when he was arrested for extremely drunk driving at 5 a.m. late in the season when every game was critical. Detroit lost a one-game playoff for the division title.

Cabrera was also picked up for a domestic incident, though charges were never filed. Tiger management -- most notably task-master manager Jim Leyland -- reportedly delivered to him a verbal spanking in private and challenged him to demonstrate in 2010 that he is worth his $153 million contract.

Cabrera reportedly arrived in camp in better shape, and so far -- sure, it's just four games -- is hitting .471/.526./834 with a couple of homers. Cabrera can hit in his sleep, even when his sleep ends with a hangover, so that's not necessarily a sign that he's unusually fit. But the arrow is pointing in the right direction, and adding his talent with some new focus is scary.

Similarly, Dontrelle Willis has made but one start. Nonetheless, he looked better than he has anytime in the last two years, when he combined for a 1-6, 8.22 mark in just 53 innings, with 35 strikeouts and a miserable 63 walks. At 28, this is it for the amiable lefty, and he has responded with a resurgent spring training and six innings of two-run ball in his opener, punctuated by four strikeouts and just two walks. "His WHIP with Detroit is over 2. His confidence had fallen to zero," wrote Sports Illustrated columnist Jon Heyman.

Indeed, D-Train suffered Social Anxiety Disorder after his trade from Florida --along with Cabrera -- for whom he earned Rookie of the Year status in 2003. Reports from camp in Lakeland indicated that his spirits and velocity had returned to high levels. His first start was a good start, which is a good start and nothing more, but it's still better than a bad start.

If Cabrera can play like an MVP and Willis can deliver even .500 quality in the #5 slot of the rotation, Detroit's title hopes take a giant step forward. In a division that might be had with 86 wins, that's really good news for a city that hasn't had much lately.

Plus, the Ford Fiesta hatchback is pretty cool.
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You Mean They Won't Show the Yankees for Two Weeks?

It's nice to see that the Fox Northeast Baseball Network is back in action this year. On today's inaugural over-the-air broadcast -- Yankees-Rays, natch -- they announced the lineup for the next couple of weeks. Joe Buck and Tim McCarver will be bringing their Yankee love to the following games in April:

Mets-Phils
Yankees-Red Sox
Red Sox-Yankees
Phils-Braves
Mets-Yankees

We can extrapolate that May and June will look like this:

Phils-Red Sox
Red Sox-Braves
Yankees-someone or other
Some other team-Yankees
Red Sox-whatever
Phils-Mets
Yankees-who really cares?
Yankees-Washington Generals
Indians-White Sox (Ha! Just kidding! Can you imagine?!)

No doubt, I will see Franco Cervelli, Brett Gardner and Manny Delcarmen on TV many more times this year than I'll see Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum and Miguel Cabrera combined. I guess I can always catch those guys when they make their Hall of Fame acceptance speeches.
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The Season In A Nutshell

Thanks for coming everybody; I think we have enough information.

Did you see the results of Opening Day? (The full day, not the Boston preview.) Here's what we learned:

1. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the NL.

2. Jason Heyward is the NL Rookie of the Year.

3. Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum will vie for the NL Cy Young.

4. The Phils are awesome.

5. Mark Buehrle wins the Gold Glove and the AL Cy Young.

6. Jorge Posada, Adam Lind, Vernon Wells and Kevin Youklis are really good hitters.

Beyond that, take a look at the game results:

Tigers beat Royals; Rangers beat Blue Jays; White Sox beat Indians; Angels beat Twins, Mariners beat A's; Cards beat Reds; Rockies beat Brewers; D'backs beat Padres; Giants beat Astros; Mets beat Marlins; Braves beat Cubs; Phillies crush Nats.

That's pretty much a plausible162-game schedule condensed to one game. Other than the Pirates' superiority over the Dodgers, the standing look exactly as we expect them to.

We think of baseball as a sport of tremendous variability that only reveals itself over an entire six-month season, a game in which a .230 hitter can knock four hits and a superstar can take the collar on any given day. But for Opening Day 2010, most everything went exactly according to the script.

Somehow I missed Nick Johnson going on the DL...

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Almost Got To Opening Day Without Mentioning Sox-Yanks

Though I'd hesitate to call it Opening Day, the 2010 MLB season kicks off tonight at Fenway with the Yankees in town. Baseball is hoping to emulate NASCAR, which fires off the season with its biggest race. Given what a miserable anti-climax the World Series has become, it's fitting, if not inspiring.

While most teams ponder the question marks, the two behemoths in battle tonight ponder where first they'll plunder for further talent monopolization. The big question for New York is, at which position will they fail to place an All-Star. (Answer: outfield.) In Boston, there actually are three interesting side stories that may help determine how much of a fight they can muster.

The first two questions are variations on a theme: What of...? Daisuke Matsuzaka and David Ortiz.  Daisuke has played in the States for three seasons, and presented to America three different Daisukes. Version 1, the "rookie," was a strikeout machine who logged 200+ innings of 4.40 RA ball. Capital.

2008's Daisuke v.2 was an odd duck. His spectacular 18-3, 3.11 RA line masked many problems. He walked five batters a game and burned himself out by the fifth inning, forcing the deep Bosox pen to bail him out constantly. That they did put a beautiful facade on a structurally unsound foundation, which we saw last year when his arm fell off. Daisuke v.3 was painful: just 12 starts and a 5.76 RA with 10 homers in 60 innings. 

All things being equal (which they aren't; how can all things be equal?), Matsuzaka is something between the lucky drunk of 2008 and the (World Baseball Classic-induced?) basket case of 2009. The stathead projection systems, which are taking account of his DL stint to open the season, see him pitching around 150 innings this year with an ERA back around 4.20, good for about two wins a year compared to a fifth starter off the trash heap. That's good third or fourth starter quality.

Two versions of David Ortiz showed up last year, the aging slugger who couldn't hit a pumpkin before the All-Star break and the 27 home runs post-ASB. Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field.

Which brings us to the epic saga of Mike Lowell. Any other team thanks their lucky stars for a slick-fielding hot cornerman with an .811 OPS and hopes his hip is hippie-dippie in '10. The Sox, they can't afford to hope. So they bring aboard Adrian Beltre, which leaves them with two viable third basemen, three first basemen (Youklis, Lowell and Victor Martinez), two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and no space to fill at DH. This is a good thing, especially in the AL Beast.

Varitek and Lowell will start the season talking old times on the bench, but they could be significant -- if expensive -- spare parts if injuries strike. Because Terry Francona has so many above-average permutations at his disposal, a sprain here and tear there won't cause much dislocation in the lineup. Don't assume the Red Sox want to trade Lowell just because he's not a first-stringer. Mark my word: he'll get more than half a season's at bats.

The media has done a good job covering Boston management's new-found romance with pitching and defense, but what they're really banking on is depth. With Lowell on the bench and Matsuzaka as the sixth starter (for now), the Sox are 2010's anti-Mets. Let's hope (as we Yankee-despisers are wont to do) that's enough to beat NY's other team.

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Missed It By Tha-a-a-t Much

I've been thinking recently whether Jorge Posada's bronze likeness has a future in Cooperstown and if not, how much more he has to save for the secret decoder ring. 

It's an apt question because while Posada has demonstrated remarkable consistency for a backstop, he can't have many more squats left in him at 39. There are also two strikes against him: 1. The Yankees won't Biggio an albatross just so he can reach a milestone like 300 homers or 1,000 RBIs. 2. The class of surefire Famers with eligibility concurrent to Posada's (and therefore competing with him) will likely be impressive.

But first, the preliminaries. Jorge Posada has been a very good catcher for a long time. Every season since he became a regular in '97 he's been an above-average hitter, substantially so whenever healthy. His lifetime .379/.480 OBP/SLG includes 20-30 home runs and 60-100 walks every year. That's a good-hitting left-fielder; it's commendable out of the squat. The defensive metrics, of which I have always been a little dubious, say he's an above-average catcher even as he approaches grizzledom.

What hurts the switch-hitting Puerto Rican is the lack of a keystone season. Posada has posted three spectacular seasons like 2000's .287/.417/.527 with 28 dingers and 35 doubles, but he's hit .300 just once, knocked in 100 runs just once, never scored 100 and never figured real high in the MVP tally.

Clearly, Posada is not in league with the all-time greats like Bench, Berra, Piazza, Carter, Dickey and Rodriguez. Baseball Prospectus rates him roughly the 12th best ever (not including Joe Mauer, who is already 2/3rds of the way to passing him), just behind Mickey Cochrane and just ahead of Ted Simmons. Cochrane was a no-doubt-about-it selection; Simmons was a Posada-type with a long, productive career lacking a spectacular peak.

One finger tipping the scales in Posada's favor is his affiliation with a dynasty. Because HOF voting is still in the hands of people ordering off the wrong menu, he will get credit for his post-season exploits, which are remarkable mostly for their volume. Regardless, I think he will lack the votes based on his current curriculum vitae.

Posada is on year three of a four-year deal and it's hard to imagine the Yankees extending him beyond age 40, particularly when their top minor league prospect, Jesus Montero, is a catcher (for now.) What can he do to stick his nose into the HOF tent between now and then? Two more seasons like 2007 would boost his overall bona fides considerably and catapult him over 1,000 runs and RBIs. (It would also probably induce someone to sign him for another year or two, if he's so inclined.) 

The problem is that the effects of his wrinkle cream have to wear off eventually and age 39 is as good a time as any. The stathead projection systems have him at around .260/.350/.450 with 16-18 homers this year, which made Brad Ausmus wet his pajamas when he dreamed of it, but isn't moving Posada any closer to the Hall.

If he comes up short, there's no shame in being one of the 15 greatest ever to don the shin pads, flashing a championship ring on each finger of his throwing hand and earning $116 million over his career. He can visit Cooperstown for free when he accompanies Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for their induction ceremonies.

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If My Mother Were A Raisin, I'd Be A Grape

Hey, wouldja look at that? Eric Bedard has managed to get himself named to the coveted Disabled List again this year...AND THE SEASON HASN'T EVEN STARTED! 

He might be the greatest Disabled List pitcher of all time.

If Bedard is healthy, the Mariners win the division. If Kim Jong Il spontaneously combusts, North Korea is a democracy.

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