11 August 2008

The Trouble With High Expectations

Last night was a disaster for Cleveland righty Cliff Lee. Failing to notch a win, he doubled his yearly walk output and dropped his K/BB rate in half.

That's right, he issued two free passes during his nine-inning stint while fanning only five. His seven-hit shutout was insufficient for victory as the Blue Jays tallied three times in the 10th for a 3-0 win.

Such is life with a 0.81 ERA and a 39/2 K/BB record. While Lee's indulgent two-walk night still leaves him with 44K to 4BB, failing to return to the mound for extra frames prevented him from lowering his ERA beyond 0.67.

But as close followers of baseball analytics understand, limiting our consideration to earned runs can hide a pitcher's real difficulties. After all, Lee has also surrendered an unearned run this year, driving his run responsibility back up to 0.83. And he's uncorked a wild pitch. Heck, he's even once been the victim of a home run.

So let's not get crazy about his historic command and control, his unhittability and his unblemished won-loss mark. Anyday now he might lose all control and hit someone with a pitch.

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