30 August 2016

Kansas City: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

If there's one thing you have to admire about the people who cut the checks for Kansas City's baseball club, it's their patience. For years they let Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Luke Hochevar marinate until they were ready to contribute. 

Two years ago, they doubled down on their personnel's strengths, focusing on contact, speed, defense and relief pitching, and flipping strikeout-prone Wil Myers for a dubious return (it seemed at the time) that catapulted them to a pair of World Series.

Yet baseballdom seemed taken aback when GM Dayton Moore stayed the course at the Trade Deadline following a 7-19 July that pushed the Royals to the edge of extinction for the season. What Moore knew was that the snake bites that crippled his team -- including a freak collision that put Moustakas and Gordon simultaneously on the shelf -- would mend itself in time for the team to bounce back.

Yost is the Most
KC has the perfect manager for just such a task. Ned Yost is no strategic savant, to be kind, but he keeps a steady hand on the till and maintains faith in his players, faith that has repeatedly been vindicated. Sure enough, a 20-9 August has the Royals back in the muddled Wild Card race.

"Dayton said he wasn't going to make any deals unless it made us better now or in the future," Yost said. "So, we just weren't going to sell off players. We both talked about it. This was the same group we liked out of Spring Training. And we both felt like we had the ability to get it turned around.

To Yost's credit, he doesn't subscribe to any of the silly chatter you hear from the buffoonosphere about one daring act transforming the team.

"You don't spur turnarounds. If you could spur turnarounds, then what were we doing in July?" he said. 

The Sweet Sound of Smart
When you hear that kind of talk from a manager, you know your nine is in good hands. The Royals are one of seven teams battling for just two Wild Card berths, anchored down by near-worst on base and slugging percentages, and four key pitchers on the DL. 

But if anyone can pull a rabbit out of their baseball caps it's the two-time AL champions. They can thank a general manager and a field general who know that sometimes just waiting is the best strategy.

24 August 2016

This Guy Seager? No His Brother. He's Not Too Bad.

Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager has now played 148 games between his 2015 call-up and the first 121 games of this season. In that time, he has begun authoring history.

Playing in a pitcher's stadium; facing the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Zack Grienke and Petco Park; and staffing the middle infield, Seager has pummeled NL pitching. His 26 homes and 47 doubles/triples make him one of the league's top sluggers -- at age 22. He's produced 52% better than the average batter and earned more than seven wins against replacement. 

Seager, the younger brother of Mariner star third baseman Kyle, was born the same year ARod began his career -- 1994. Less than a calendar year into his career, he's the Dodgers' best everyday player, despite a roster of multi-millionaires, and he's beginning to climb some impressive lists, many of which go beyond rookie status.

Seager is now the most homerific shortstop in Dodger history. He's the youngest shortstop in history to wallop three homers in one game. He's the first Dodger ever with a three-homer game and a three-double game in the same season. He owns the L.A. rookie record for doubles, with more than a month left in the season. He leads the Dodgers in WAR and most everything else that's good, batting .326/.387/.547 to start his career.

Here's the thing: even if you've heard of him, he's not top of mind, even among the plethora of young stars in the game. For a first-round draft pick playing in Hollywood, he generates a minimum of buzz.

That will end soon. The Dodgers are playoff-bound again, and a longer stay will finally put him in the spotlight. Even absent that, Seager is a cinch to win the Rookie of the Year and is in the conversation for MVP.

Go ahead and ignore him. The record books are already noticing.

21 August 2016

Ryan Lochte's "Apology" Will Cost Him Millions

You've perhaps heard of Ryan Lochte now. Lochte is the unfortunate lad who has swum in Michael Phelps' wake for the last 12 years, the world's best swimmer except for the guy setting all the records.

Now Lochte is famous for being an idiot and for sparking an international incident, mostly with his mouth.

Once the story began unraveling and the merda hit the fan, Lochte's PR team went into full Ryan Braun mode.

The Legalistic Non-apology
You've heard the non-apology, non-acceptance of responsibility in which Lochte used the words "apology" and "I accept responsibility" both in his Instagram post and in an interview on national television with Matt Lauer.

Here's his Instagram apology:
"I want to apologize for my behavior last weekend. I'm sorry for not being more careful and candid in how I described the events of that early morning."

That's it. No acknowledgement of what he did, that he lied and embarrassed a nation, that he acted like a drunken moron in someone else's country. ln a statement apologizing for a lack of candor, Lochte lacked candor.

Reading From a Script
For icing on an already sour cake, there's the Lauer interview. (That is, setting aside Lochte's repeated use of the redundant "over-exaggerated".) Lochte attempted a samba in which he appeared contrite and apologetic without ever admitting any of the details of his lie. He even suggested that his bald-faced lie about having a gun at his temple could be a matter of interpretation.

Pressed repeatedly by Lauer to admit the truth, Lochte's PR training kicked in. Looking ever earnest, he simply re-read from the script without ever answering Lauer's questions. He repeatedly claimed to accept responsibility while attempting to evade it. It's understandable, because actually answering the questions would have required Lochte to admit he had lied. On the other hand, a genuine, apology would have humanized him and put a cap on the dramatics.

I knew nothing of, and had no opinion of Lochte. the person, prior to this incident. I have an opinion now: he's a lying, conniving, contemptible, disingenuous jackass, not because he got drunk and destroyed a bathroom, not even because he originally lied about the incident. 

Goodbye Cheerios...and Everyone Else
Lochte loses my respect because he hasn't the common decency to stand up and admit what is transparent to the world anyway. He's hiding behind a PR strategy, presumably to save millions in endorsements.

Well, I've got bad news for Ryan and his PR dopes. The cover-up was worse than the crime. He'll lose those endorsements not because he acted like a knucklehead and wove a tall tail afterwards, but because of his lack of candor and refusal to accept responsibility once the story blew up.

I wonder how much he's paying to get really terrible advice.

12 August 2016

And Now A Word From Our Sponsor


In case you're wondering why the Olympic coverage seems oddly unsatisfying, here's 20 minutes of your life you can never get back:

Following Michael Phelps' dramatic gold medal performance in the 200 IM, NBC offered you four minutes of commercials you'd already seen ad nauseum. 

They followed that with the playing of the U.S. National Anthem. Note to NBC: we've heard the national anthem before.

Then four more minutes of commercials, including promos for shows that are comedies, ironically, only because they think they are.

Then several minutes of showing Phelps meandering around the pool waiting for his next event with a clock ticking off the minutes since his last competition. Evidently NBC was oblivious to the fact that it was also cataloging the time since its audience had last seen any action.

Then an interview with Ryan Lochte, who had finished fifth in the event and had, like all the other media-savvy swimmers, nothing to say.

Followed by four minutes of commercials

Or at least I assume it was four minutes. I turned off the TV at that point and read a book -- without commercial interruption.

Alex Rodriguez's Baseball Eulogy


And so, one of the most spectacular, infamous, intriguing, exasperating baseball careers comes to a close exactly the opposite of how you would expect. It fizzles to an ending without a conclusion.

Unless he perks up for his last game, Alex Rodriguez's last RBI will come on an 0-4 day in which he grounded out weakly with the bases loaded. Contrast that with Derek Jeter's last at bat. Contrasting with Derek Jeter will always be ARod's fate, which is why he will always be remembered as both a phenomenon and tragedy.

Today, Alex Rodriguez will play his last game, a shadow of a shell of anything he ever was on the diamond. A sub-Mendoza DH over the last calendar year, ARod may have been removed from the field by the Yankees, but it's hardly as if they had a choice. He has nothing to offer them but the lost opportunity of exposing a prospect to MLB pitching.

There is talk of ARod playing elsewhere to bolster attendance, but this seems like nonsense. The hometown Marlins? An NL team in a playoff race? Fans are not going to pay for the possibility that ARod might pinch hit. 

Sure, Rodriguez could carry on to reach 700 home runs, something only three others have ever done. But it is clear the tank is empty. It could take more than the 48 games remaining for him to reach the mark, during which time he would be dragging down all his other accomplishments.

So while his career droops to an anti-climax, let's just remind ourselves what an all-time great, inner-circle Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez was:

  • He won the batting title, hitting .358/.414/.631 at age 20.
  • He hit 33 homers the year he turned 40.
  • He led his league in HR five times, in runs scored five times and in slugging four times.
  • He topped 1.000 OPS six times.
  • He slugged 150 HR for three different teams, which no one else has done.
  • He slugged 250 HR from two different positions, which no one else has done.
  • He slammed 696 HR and stole 329 bases. Only Barry Bonds has more of both.
  • His 435 home runs was the most in the 2000s.
  • He hit 35+ home runs for 11 straight seasons.
  • He topped 8 WAR -- the benchmark for an MVP season -- in 8 different seasons.
  • He dragged the Yankees to the playoffs almost singlehandedly in 2007, hitting .314-54-156 and leading the league with a 1.096 OPS -- one of his three MVP seasons.
  • He batted .365/.456/.801 in the 2009 playoffs, leading the Yankees to their last World Series title.
  • He played shortstop! Shortstop! When you think of all the other modern all-time great offensive players -- Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr. -- they all played the outfield, not the most important defensive position behind the pitcher.
Alex Rodriguez will evidently begin employing his prodigious coaching and speaking talents going forward, and it's a good bet he will perform admirably and become an ambassador for the game he once sued. Let's hope he finds some peace in his life now that he's no longer chasing expectations on the field. If he does, he might soften some hearts hardened against him and repair some of his legacy. Because after all is said and done, he was one of the greatest who ever donned a uniform.

06 August 2016

...And Talk About Irrelevant -- There's Olympic Basketball


It beggars the imagination how any American can manufacture excitement about the Olympic men's basketball "competition."

There are 12 players on each team. The American squad fits entirely among the 15 best players competing, meaning the tournament has all the intrigue of Russia's invasion of Crimea.

The US team of NBA stars will oppose the amateurs from China and Venezuela during the tournament. It's hard to believe a single American will watch these debacles and cheer for "their" team.

It's hard to believe this is even an Olympic sport. It's really just embarrassing.

Are 77 Million Paying Customers Irrelevant?


I have a lot of opportunity to listen to sports talk radio -- not that I do, just that I have the opportunity. For one thing, there's no such thing as sports talk radio anymore; there's 24/7 NFL radio with an NBA side dish and some miscellaneous dessert. Around this time golf and Olympics comprise the postprandial offerings. 

In the process, baseball, hockey and all other sports have been relegated to sports talk Siberia. Someone should inform Mike, and also Mike, that Major League baseball games are actually being played during the summer, whereas there is absolutely nothing happening in pro football and basketball, save the verbal diarrhea that pours out across the airwaves about an irrelevant tweet, arrest or contract dispute.

Which brings me to the main point here: how utterly preposterous NBA talk is until the second round of the playoffs in May. Consider this:
  • Today is August 6.
  • The NBA finals take place in June, 2017, 10 months from now.
  • We can agree with nearly 100% certainty that the Cleveland Cavaliers will play in the NBA finals in 2017 unless LeBron James gets hurt.
  • We can agree with nearly 100% certainty that if the Cavs don't advance, the East representative will get shellacked in the finals.
  • We can agree with nearly 100% certainty that the Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs will represent the West in the NBA finals.
  • No other team has any reasonable hope of vying for the title.
And yet, there have been several times more NBA talk on the radio than baseball talk the last two weeks -- even during the run-up to the trade deadline and while the pennant races are shaping up. Actually, that undersells the discrepancy because there was essentially no baseball talk despite the flurry of trade activity.

I understand that football and basketball are young fans' universe, though with supply-side pressure like that, how could they not be? But more than twice as many people attended MLB games last year than NBA and NFL games -- combined

So if 77 million people paid hard-earned American legal tender to enjoy ballgames, doesn't it stand to reason that a few of them, occasionally, would rather hear about baseball games actually being played than about some off-season hypotheticals in a league whose first meaningful contests are months away?

04 August 2016

To Err Is Human; To Acknowledge is Preller




The story of redemption is as old as, well, stories. It's even more compelling than the story of success, because of the added intrigue of the fall.



If A.J. Preller's signing and trading binge preceding the 2015 season had catapulted the San Diego Padres to the playoffs, that would have been noteworthy: A "small market" team with a history of mediocrity (or worse) opens the vault and imports a division title.

Instead, what Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Cashner, James Shields and Derek Norris delivered was the familiar stench of ineptitude, three games worse than the previous year's 85-loss season.

The recent head-scratching trade of Matt Kemp to Atlanta for Hector Olivera -- a 31-year-old washout with a domestic abuse suspension -- amounts to the final unconditional surrender following that brief episode, which unraveled less than halfway through its first season. With Kemp's departure -- a pure salary dump; Olivera was designated for assignment immediately -- and not withstanding the continued employment in SoCal of catcher Norris and his .191 BA, the slate has been wiped clean.

The Padres have banked some prospects in the process, saved some cash to allocate elsewhere and continue their merry prance through the bottom of the NL West, 15 games under .500.

So the future is next year for the Padres, as it almost always has been, except for one thing: the speed with which GM Preller acknowledged the failure of his plan and pivoted to a new one. In the space of a year-and-a-half he has course-corrected 180 degrees. That demonstrates remarkable maturity and aptitude, even in a business where your successes and failures are displayed publicly in the standings every day.


02 August 2016

A Bad Ending To a Nice Story


Two unfortunate jammed thumbs in the same game have sent Trevor Story to the operating room to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and ended his rookie season.

View the sad video here.

Story had just eclipsed the home run record for rookie shortstops with his 27th when he lost his battles with the second base bag and the ground.

It's a shame for Story, for the surging Rockies and for all baseball fans, who were robbed on one of the greatest years by a first year middle infielder.

So to soften the blow, for at least those of us without a rooting interest, let's extrapolate his whole season and see what we get.

The 23-year-old Texan was batting .272 with 67 runs, 21 doubles, four triples, 27 home runs, 72 RBIs, 35 walks and eight stolen bases in 97 games (of 105) as a rookie. Entering Tuesday, his 27 home runs led the National League and his 72 RBIs were fifth in the NL.

So for the mythical full season, Trevor Story, as a 23-year-old rookie shortstop who flashed leather at that key position, batted .272/.341/.567, 20% better than the average NL batter. 

He contributed:
  • 42 home runs,
  • 32 doubles,
  • six triples,
  • 103 runs scored,
  • 111 RBIs,
  • 54 walks and
  • 325 total bases.

He's rated at 4.6 WAR by Baseball Reference, a number dampened by his home park.

Trevor Story won't win the Rookie of the Year award and he won't make the playoffs. And some rookie shortstop in the near future is going to crush his home run record.  Baseball is a cruel game.

01 August 2016

What To Do About A-Rod


Alex Rodriguez is over. Over like the Macarena, like Debby Boone, like Carrot Top (pictured right-- look away!)

ARod spent his 41st birthday on the bench -- for the fifth straight game -- and for good reason. He's as creaky as loose stairs. Two hip operations later, he can't play the field. He swings like a rusty gate and now he's dancing with Mario Mendoza's legacy at .206/.256/.364. His 227 plate appearances have cost the Yankees a win.

A-Rod could just retire but for the $42 million he's owed for this year and next. The Yankees could just jettison him but, well, you get the idea.

So there he is, taking up roster space on a team that's skidding sideways.

A great piece on Baseball Prospectus documents what good company ARod is keeping with players who posted abysmal OPS+ in their final or age 40 seasons. BP's research shows that no one who plays this poorly this late in his career bounces back.

Besides, what would Rodriguez bounce back to? After a torrid start to 2015, he hit .191/.300/.377 in the final two months.

The Yankees seem caught between ARod and a hard place with their former slugger. But I have a solution for them.

My ARod Plan
First, once the Yankees have acknowledged that they aren't winning a playoff spot this year, they should play ARod every day. Give him a chance to either produce or convince everyone the tank is empty. It also allows him to record his 700th home run, from which he stands four shy.

Then, after the last dregs are drug up, let Alex Rodriguez realize on his own that he needs to leave. Give him the space to approach the Yankees for a buyout -- what basically amounts to ransom. "Pay me a big pile of money and I won't clog up your roster."

If he fails that test, Brian Cashman can turn the tables and offer the buyout. The team would have some leverage too. They could offer a nice retirement package with a ceremony and a happy ending. Or, they could cut his sorry butt and let his checkered career end ingloriously. His choice.

But what if he foils the plan by beating the odds and playing well? Great! Same plan, but this time, offer him the opportunity to retire on top, like David Ortiz. Let him plausibly say it was his decision, to show one last time he could still bring it at 41, and then leave the game.

It's not a perfect solution, but such things have never existed with Alex Rodriguez. Despite the other-worldly talent, good looks, fame and fortune, there's never been an easy way with him, at least not since his Mariner days of the last century. So you take what you can get, which is a few million in savings and a roster spot for someone who can actually contribute.