11 August 2008

Second Half NL-Style

Pete Rozelle would have loved the 2008 National League. There's such parity that the Pirates
are having trouble figuring out how to lose consistently. Along with the Giants, a team that
could take full swings in the Lincoln bedroom without denting a wall, they are the most
surprising first-half NL performers.

The Midgets are 40-55, two-thirds of the way towards my prediction of 60 wins. Their top
home run hitter is -- I'm sure you saw this coming -- a young gentlemen named John Bowker.
Mr. Bowker averaged 14 big flies a year in his three seasons of Single- and Double-A
experience. As the big club's team leader, he has bagged nine round-trippers, five fewer
than Rockies' catcher and noted slugger, Chris Iannetta.

The Bucs, at 44-51 may be an even greater surprise, given the almost total uselessness of
their promising young starters Ian Snell and Zach Duke. They've been carried entirely by their
outfield contingent of Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Jason Bay and catcher-rightfielder Ryan
Doumit. The quartet has a .375/.539 on-base/slugging line, with 61 of the team's 98 long
balls and 18 steals in 21attempts.

The real surprise of the season so far, inasmuch as they might compete for a post-season
spot, is the Miami nine. It's a nice story and they certainly have some legitimate stars in
Ramirez, Uggla, et. al., but they have fewer worthwhile arms than the Mozambiquan army.
Clock strikes midnight for this Cinderella outfit very soon.

The Braves have been a disappointment given all their talent, but losing three-fifths of your
starting rotation to injuries can have that effect. Throw in their confounding inability to
win one-run games and voila! -- they're five games under. On the other hand, that stuff is
likely to even out, particularly when you consider that they've won a majority of two-run
games. A rebound by Jeff Francouer and some improvement from the back of the rotation
could re-inject Atlanta into the division mix.

That the Phillies improved their pitching by acquiring a guy with a 5-12, 4.96 line tells you all
you need to know about that offense-only squad. Though I would argue that Joe Blanton
pitched better than his record in the DH league, I'd also note that he's a flyball pitcher entering
Citizens Bomb Ballpark, where pop-ups grow up to be Big Flies. Among the Phils, Mets and
Braves, this one's a tossup.

And then there's the NL West, the worst division since the 1994 lockout mercifully put the AL
West out of its misery. If you want to know why the Dodgers have under-performed
expectations, allow me to introduce you to Andruw Jones and his eight-figure salary.
Andruw -- or as he's affectionately know in L.A., "Go back to Aruba you worthless piece of
shit!" -- is making an historic attempt to improve the legacies of the Biff Pocorobas of the
world. With more than twice as many strikeouts as hits and a slugging percentage of .248,
Andruw is essentially Sandy Koufax at the plate, without being Sandy Koufax, or even
Scott Proctor, on the mound.

It's not just Jones, though. Here's how inept the Dodgers are at the plate: Shortstop Rafael
Furcal has been the team's second most productive hitter, behind catcher Russ Martin, despite
missing half of the team's games. At the rate he's contributing, it will take Matt Kemp, the
team's third best batsman, 144 games to equal Furcal's total offensive contribution. In the
Weak Weak West, Dodger pitching might be enough to carry them to the division title, but
they sure could use a couple of bats before the trade deadline.

What's happened to the Diamondbacks? Are they the team that started the season like the
cops were chasing them, or the junker that's sputtered to .500? Like their neighbors to the
west, the Snakes are all pitching, but they have two edges on their rivals: The Haren-Webb
tandem and a young lineup that is more likely to improve in-season. If the Big Unit's back
eases up and one or two of the kids approaches his potential, the D-backs can hiss the rest
of the division goodbye.

The other NL surprise this year is St. Louis, a balanced club with solid starting pitching,
defense and enough hitting to carry a pair of glove-only middle-infielders. The Cards need
some relief help and a couple more bats off the bench, flaws that are sufficiently piddling to
warrant little concern in either of the other two divisions. The bad karma from their undeserved
'06 championship has the Redbirds playing in the division with the two best teams -- Chicago
and Milwaukee, and those shortcomings are probably too much to over-come in the Central.

It's going to be a wild 11 weeks in the Senior Circuit. In the meantime, go amuse yourself.

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