"Alas, alack!" say the experts. With the young Rays poised for a 100-win season, why are so many Tampa Bay diehards dressing up as empty seats for games in St. Petersburg? The Rays will likely wear the AL East crown this year before fewer than 1.7 million fans? Why oh why?! Disaster! Catastrophe! Why isn't the government doing something?
Silly wabbits. Had any of those experts actually been paying attention anytime during the past 100 years, they might have noticed something: it's always like this.
Teams don't draw well the year they suddenly burst into contention. That bump comes the following year, regardless of their performance then. Apparently people make attendance decisions before the season begins. They buy their tickets in advance...or they don't.
Don't believe it? I looked up four teams roughly at random that came out of nowhere to contend or actually win the World Series recently. Here's what happened:
The 1985 Royals drew 2.1 million fans in 1985 when they won their only World Series. The following year they went 76-86...and drew 200,000 more fans.
The Oakland A's entered the 2000 season with a recent history of incompetence. That they earned a playoff spot is mostly a rumor in the East Bay: only 1.4 million fans saw it in person. But 3.3 million of them witnessed a reprise in 2001.
The Anaheim Angels, coming off a 75-87 year attracted 2.3 million customers while winning the World Series in 2002. Three million paid to see them lose 82 games the following year.
Roughly 2.3 million Chicagolanders saw the White Sox play their way to World Series supremecy in 2005. It was worth 700,000 rotations of the turnstiles the following year.
There may be some inherent barriers to ever attracting fans in large numbers to the Trop. There's lots to do in Tampa Bay; the stadium has the look, and charm, of a tissue box; and the population is on the other side of the bay. (Beyond that, Scott Kazmir, the people of Tampa Bay don't owe you a thing. If they're not buying your product, make it better; don't cry about their loyalty.) But the sky is not falling just because no one's coming out this year. And the baseball media would know that...if they knew anything about baseball.
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