Runs, Hits and Errors: Chapter One

Facts, absolute in the abstract, are often twisted like pretzels when they refuse to conform to preconceptions. How else to explain the invasion of Iraq or the Occupy movement?

After a year of reporting the facts -- as I see them -- it's time to turn towards Cooperstown and reflect upon a year of blogging. The philosophy here is to swing hard in case you make contact, which provides for some entertaining whiffs.

Let's fire up the Wayback Machine and reprise the first three months of 2011:

Grand slams deserve a tip of the cap, but the colossal stupidity of Anaheim's Mike Napoli-Vernon Wells  trade was a hanging curve that Ron Kovic could have doubled off. Still, a win's a win, so forgive me for mentioning once again how I called this one back in January. (Synopsis: the Angels sent Toronto a better player in exchange for Vernon Wells and the worst contract in Major League history, a deal so bad it literally cost Anaheim the division.) Okay, okay, so did every other multi-celled organism not named Arte Moreno.

On the other hand, I might have been alone hitting into this ninth-inning double-play with the bases loaded. In his previous 13-year career, Adrian Beltre had rolled out the cannons on two conspicuous occasions -- both in contract years. A prescription for one- or two-year contract, right? When the Rangers dropped 96 large on Beltre for six seasons, I dropped 96 large bric-a-brats on the deal and predicted performance regression in the area of Bank of America stock. I'm not sure .296 batting with 33 homers and Gold Glove defense is quite what I had in mind. The Beltre signing may yet come back to haunt the Rangers, but not the way I suggested.

I was just the messenger, a suspicious one at that, but it's nonetheless instructive to review the sabermetric projections for Royals second-year first-baseman Kila Ka’aihue. The Baseball Prospectus abacus pegged the otherwise nondescript Hawaiian at .262/.387/.473 with 25 homers and as much value as Ryan Howard in 2011. Well, Howard's decline continued, but still left him four wins clear of Ka'aihue, who played just 23 games and batted .195. Thhhhppppp!

I used up valuable Internet space to document the utter futility of Brandon Wood with a bat in his hand and wondered why the Angels would allow him to keep a roster spot. Well, they didn't for long, shipping the lumber-impaired infielder to the waiver wire, and thence to Pittsburgh, where, unburdened by the need to deliver, he didn't. But he was less worse than usual. In the most plate appearances of his career, Wood slugged .216/.270/.340, a 228-point upswing in his OPS and a mere half win below replacement level. Wood has the valuable ability to not hit at three infield positions, but he's arbitration-eligible this year. I see a minor league jersey in his immediate future.

You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll never forget this post from March in which I touted a fascinating new pitcher measuring tool called SIERA. If you bought any shares, you went bust, because the stat monkeys who gave SIERA life took it away, arguing that no matter how they tweaked it, its projections failed to outperform existing tools.

In a nutshell, SIERA proposed to replace a pitcher's actual ERA with the ERA he had earned based on the way he pitched, stripping out defense, park factors, luck and other elements out of his control. Other metrics claim to do the same -- FIP (fielding-independent pitching), FRA (fair run average) and their ilk -- so SIERA was retired during its rookie year. Frankly, they all add marginal value and not much more at this early stage of their development.

This, of course, is not a failure but a spectacular success, as I mentioned in a subsequent post. Creative destruction is not just a free market phenomenon; it marks the world of scientific research. Rather than hang on defensively to an outdated or counter-productive theory, SIERA's inventors admitted noble defeat and consolidated their lessons learned.

SIERA did leave us a legacy, as noted in the blog post under discussion. SIERA suggested that four luck-challenged pitchers from 2010 would rebound in 2011 -- Aaron Harang, Dan Haren, Brandon Morrow and Josh Beckett. You can see for yourself how Harang, Haren and Beckett fulfilled their prescribed destiny, but Morrow hiccupped. Morrow remains a fascinating case in that he pitched more innings in 2011 with more quality starts and an even better WHIP and K/BB ratio, yet his ERA continued to rise. Something is going on there (too many home runs, for one) that is eluding SIERA (and FIP and FRA, for that matter) and may suggest a common hole in all these accounting systems.

Another March post from the mountaintop espied the dreck clogging the backstop position in NY and Boston after a decade of excellence and noted how the mighty had fallen. It was true that neither Jason Varitek nor Jorge Posada donned the gear much last year (indeed, Posada did just once), pressing Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Russell Martin into service. Each delivered about what you might expect: Salty, .235/.288/.450 for the Sox  and Martin a Jekyll-and-Hyde .237/.324/.408 in which he lit up April and August and fizzled the rest of the season.

With the expiration of Posada's four-year, $52 million contract, an inability to catch and an almost complete lack of value as a DH, it would seem 2011 was his unfortunate swan song. Any re-signing by the Yankees would be an act of charity; it's inconceivable that anyone else would offer him a uniform. A Hall of Excellence receiver for championship teams, Posada would make a great coach and goodwill ambassador in the Yankee system.

Speaking of which, it said right here that Derek Jeter might bounce back at the plate in 2011 and flirt with .300 even as his fielding continued to deteriorate. Naysayer that you are, you snickered at his slow start, hooted for his retirement, and panned his All Star no-show. How many teams would like a shortstop whose stick is good for .297/.355/.389, including .327/.383/.428 in the second half? Snicker now, while I take my victory lap. The post also advised that you write off the Yankees and their pitching woes at your peril. They won 97 games, smart guy.

Those are the runs, hits and errors of the first three months of 2011. Next installment we'll examine last spring's blog posts while we contemplate the spring that awaits us, devoid just yet of those pesky . . . facts.
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The Future Is Never

In the spirit of declaring their intentions for 2012 and beyond, the Oakland A's have once again cast their lot with the future. The A's are the team of the future and have been for a decade, I'm afraid.

Billy Beane's franchise is hamstrung, playing in an anachronistic multi-use stadium in a demographically-challenged city on the wrong side of the Bay. Perpetually cash-strapped, Oakland brass have made a habit of shipping out their studs as they approach market cost for the next strata of studs from other teams' minor league systems.

The problem with this approach is that it means the A's are constantly sacrificing the present for the future. As soon as the future arrives it becomes the present and the team strips down again. Lather, rinse, repeat . . . and never get out of the shower.

All this follows a pair of trades that cost Oakland accomplished young starters Trevor Cahill (30-22, 3.57 in 404 innings over the last two years) and Gio Gonzalez (31-21, 3.18 in 403 innings over the last two years) for a gaggle of prized farmhands.

Beane was once master of this universe, before a great shift in the stat-scout continuum altered conditions. For one thing, The Athletics had better players to trade and a better team remaining then. The likes of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder et. al. yielded proven Major Leaguers like Dan Haren, Rich Harden, etc. And those new players inherited a playoff squad that boasted talents like Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada.

Maybe more impactful was the loss of Beane's sabermetric edge. Where once he could lord over his GM counterparts with superior understanding of the value of OBP, the fungibility of closers, the effect of BABIP on performance, and so on, that information is now standard issue in every front office in baseball. The gaping chasm in insight that Beane once enjoyed no longer exists. Even marginal advantages are difficult to come by, fleeting in nature and a mere pittance in impact compared to Oakland's serious lack of revenue.

The A's have been posturing for a new ballpark -- most likely a Cisco Systems-sponsored field in downtown San Jose -- since the Clinton Administration. Beane may be banking on that finally coming to fruition by 2015, with its attendant boost in attendance and revenues, possibly coinciding with the emergence of a stable of top prospects. It's all conjecture at this point, but  A's management likely knows something we don't.

One of Oakland's trading partners, the Washington Nationals, have loudly declared their commitment to the present. The acquisition of Gonzalez gives the Nats an intriguing big three in the rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Gonzalez. Backing them is a lineup with some assets, if not a coherent whole. Breakout first baseman Mike Morse, free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, homegrown star Ryan Zimmerman and a couple of solid middle infielders in Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond suggest the former-Expos are just a couple of key parts away from contention.

In some ways, the Nats offer the widest spread in possible outcomes in 2012. Strasburg is coming off a missed year and could be anything from still-rehabbing to again-dominating. Morse enters his age-30 season with just one full year -- last -- under his belt. Werth hopes to rebound from a .232/.330/.389 flop after signing a superstar contract. Hope springs eternal on a team whose best players boast youthful exuberance, if not a long curriculum vitae of success.

Washington's biggest problem may be the competition in the NL East. The Phillies are measurably better than the Nats going into the season, the Braves remain a daunting challenge and Miami has forefully demonstrated the same now-focused intentions as the Nats. With a second slot for also-rans in 2012, it may be the time to make that bold move.

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Inhabiting the Right Orbit

In Days of Yore, back when the Goliaths of the Game ruled the land and the players were mere pawns, teams rosters endured (or enjoyed, depending on your perspective) a certain stasis. Unless one franchise could bamboozle another out of an under-valued player by trade, the only route from the bottom of the pile to the top was to develop young talent.

These days, free agency has wreaked havoc, not only by exposing talent to a bidding war in which any franchise may participate, but also by distorting the salary structure so that teams have the right to control players and pay them vastly beneath their market value until their seventh year of service, when the cost of that labor, and the number of suitors for it, may spike.

One unintended consequence of this is that teams now act like electrons, inhabiting one of several states, including the states of contention, dilapidation, rebuilding, reloading and austerity. By their off-season actions, we can deduce the state each franchise believes it has entered.

A great case in point is the Brewers, who last year demonstrated clearly that they were damning the torpedoes and steaming ahead full speed with contention in the short term. They traded big parts of their minor league system for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum in the hopes of dominating the NL Central for the year Prince Fielder was on board and maybe for a couple more years hence. The strategy has worked so far, with the Brews winning 96 games and the division in 2011, their first playoff appearance since 1982.

Two teams involved in a trade yesterday announced what orbit they plan to occupy in 2012, and if you're a fan of either you probably want to rub your hands together in glee. Recognizing that Milwaukee and St. Louis will be stung by the defection of their slugging first-baggers and that Chicago and Houston are too far down the food chain to take advantage, the Cincinnati Reds flipped a handful of spare parts for Padre starter Mat Latos. (Most of those traded were being blocked in the Reds lineup.) Teaming with Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake, this could give the Redlegs a competitive rotation to complement a potent lineup, led by Joey Votto, that finished second in the NL last season in runs scored.

Latos's curriculum vitae includes three years of a 3.37 ERA with half the starts at Petco Park, the stadium that defense built. Even on the road, Latos sported a spiffy 3.57 mark and to boot he's just 24 years old. Cincy may keep him for four more seasons, the first of them at a deep discount (before arbitration kicks in.)

On the other side of the equation, San Diego finally decided to inhabit the space already suggested by the team's record. They are rebuilding, or just plain building, because while their pitching and defense are spot-on, their offense has been offensive. San Diego's top slugger, backstop Nick Hundley, pounded nine home runs in half a season in 2011. The player who consumed the most plate appearances, shortstop Jason Bartlett, made Sandy Koufax look like Albert Pujols -- .245/.308/.307. The team's most valuable hitter, center fielder Cameron Maybin, posted a .264/.323/.399 slash line. It's worse than it looks due to Petco, but it's still nothing to write home about, even if home is an offensively-challenged locale like Seattle.

Latos was a fancy bauble to relinquish, but he's off the roster a year before his cost becomes too rich for Padre blood. In return, the Friars received minor leaguers at first base, catcher and relief, each a former first-round pick, along with Edinson Volquez, who delivered 17-6 3.21 in 196 frames in '08 before Tommy John surgery and a steroid suspension ripped up 2009-2011. When he did take the mound last year, he pitched below replacement level, so this is a leap of faith for S.D.

That's what rebuilding is all about, though, trading the present for a shot at the future. This could easily turn into a win-win deal if Latos helps lead Cincinnati to a division title and any one of the four prospects pays off down the road for San Diego.

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Mr. Juggs Gun, Shake Hands With Mr. Eye Shade

The False Dichotomy is one of the classic errors of logic. It bares its fangs relentlessly in politics, domestic life and sports. "Do you support our troops or are you opposed to the war?" is the Mac Daddy of all False Dichotomies because not only is the dichotomy false, the premise is also. But that's another discussion.

The quintessential False Dichotomy in baseball is this: Stats or scouts? Below is an example of how badly that dichotomy is begging to be put out of its misery.

Man on first, none out, bottom of the seventh inning of a tie game. Should you bunt? The answer, transparently, is that it depends. New baseball research tells us that, on average, trading an out for a base is a bad swap. Over the history of baseball, you can expect to score 28% fewer runs from a man-on-second, one-out scenario than from a man-on-first, no out situation.

That suggests that, generally, many teams bunt way too often. Recently, some franchises have recognized this and altered their strategic approach. The saber-savvy A's and Red Sox both bunt pretty rarely.

But few situations are average. If your pitcher is up, a bunt is probably a good idea. If a .300 OBP batter is at the plate and a .400 OBP guy waits on deck, a bunt might also make sense. If the two opposing hurlers are aces shutting down the offenses, you might be playing for one run. New research shows that on average, there's virtually no difference in the frequency of scoring a single run between the man-on-second, one-out versus man-on-first, no out circumstances. In that case, a seamhead would shrug his shoulders, but a manager could tip the balance one way or the other with his soft skills.

Imagine that the manager knows his on-deck hitter, a .400 OBP guy, is ailing. Or struggles against side-arming lefties, like the fellow now on the mound. Or is going through a rough patch at home that's distracting him. The skipper might decide in that case to swing away with the .300 OBP guy in that case, odds be damned.

Managers and their staffs bring massive amounts of useful information to every game, or at least we hope they do. Simply playing the odds would eliminate the manager's value-add. That's as backward as ignoring the statistical research. The two have to be synthesized for the best decision-making. Smart franchises use numerical analysis to create frameworks of decision-making, but leave specific situational decisions to the men in uniform.

Besides, if a team always plays the odds, it's totally predictable. Sometimes, a card player has to bluff just to keep his opponents off-balance. A good field staff understands that they are managing their players for the best results over 162 games, which isn't always the same as managing for the best results in any single game. Harkening to the discussion above, the manager might want to provide his players some practice bunting in real-game situations so that they're more proficient by September, even if doing so slightly reduces his odds of winning any one game in May.

The point is that scouting and stats aren't opposite sides of a coin; they're complimentary heuristic tools. Sometimes they point in different directions, but an unbiased user can weight the information they provide appropriately and come to a well-supported conclusion.

One last thing about decision-making: one outcome does not vindicate or repudiate a decision. Sometimes the bonehead decision turns out well, or the smart move backfires. Even when the odds favor our choice, there is a non-zero chance that an ill wind will blow. The reverse is true too as evinced by the blind squirrel and the broken clock. 

As the saying goes, the battle doesn't always go to the strong, nor the race to the swift. But that's the way to bet."

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"All I Know Is, He Wins"

18-10-38-17-17-16-35-13.

That's the point total for the Denver Broncos since Tim Tebow took the reins at quarterback.

If you're keeping score, that's two good games and six bad ones.

Tebow unquestionably possesses leadership qualities. He has poise and bonhomie and courage and self-confidence. He is tenacious and persistent. He has comes alive with the game on the line. Otherwise, not so much.

"All I know is, he wins." That's a common refrain in sports. It's the dumbest one too. Tim Tebow is the most important player on the Broncos, but not the only one. He doesn't kick field goals or punt or return kicks. He doesn't play defense or run block or catch passes. He is a running back, which certainly adds to his value. But Tebow alone doesn't win games.

In fact, the stout Bronco defense has. Here are the opponent scores for Tebow's games:

15-45-24-10-13-13-32-10

That's five wins and one loss entirely attributable to the defense.

You might recall that Vince Young led Tennessee to low-scoring wins his first two seasons. The football cognoscenti were dazzled by the "W's" and failed to notice Young's mediocre performances, including 21 TD and 30 INT. The bloom eventually came off the rose and Young is now a poorly-regarded backup.

Tebow may yet have a successful career as a QB. Let's just wait for him to string together a couple of good games before we anoint him the great paradigm shifter. And let's get beyond that utterly fatuous argument about individuals "winning" in team sports.

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Breathing A Sigh In St. Louis

Remember that year the St. Louis Cardinals stunk up the joint? Yeah, me either. The last time the team won fewer games than it lost was 12 years ago. The last time St. Louis fans endured consecutive (full) losing seasons -- 1958-59. The last time the Cards lost 100 games -- 1908, the year of the Cubs' last World Series. The Cardinals' Missouri neighbors, the Kansas City Royals, have lost 100 games four times -- in the last 10 seasons.

So when team owner Bill Dewitt Jr. begs forgiveness as the best player in a generation slips through his hands, we should be inclined to oblige. Dewitt claims the team's offer came up $30 million short, at 10 years and roughly $225 million.

In the aftermath, Dewitt and GM John Mozeliak may be breathing an arch-sized sigh of relief. A quarter of a billion dollars may be considered an "investment" to a team in Southern California, but it could sink the Redbird ship even if it pays off. Because Pujols was already a Cardinal, and because fans already pack Busch Stadium, it wasn't as if the franchise could spin his arrival into enough gold to cover part of the deal's cost. The Cards are already maximizing revenues, thanks to their politely rabid Midwest fans.

With Matt Holliday signed through '16 at $17 mil per, the middle and back ends of a 10-year Pujols contract could have gummed up team finances even if Albert delivered as expected. No team can win a World Series on the backs of an outfielder and a first baseman; it needs sufficient disposable income to purchase a pitching staff and other offensive assets. It's not clear that the #18 market can support a consistently $100+ million payroll.

Dewitt and Mozeliak had to make a creditable play for their superstar if for no other reason than to placate the fans. The original nine-year, $198 million offer rejected by Pujols prior to the season's start might have seemed to them the last edge of prudence, so that going an extra year and $56 million further was beyond it. Given that the Pujols of the next 10 years is highly unlikely to be much more than a shadow of the player he's been in the previous 11, they probably made the right decision.

Folks in St. Louis are now wondering how the Cardinals will spread the unused $200 million in Albert's absence. They should not hold their breath. The windfall here is just the $14.5 million he'd been earning the last three years, for which even in his worst season he delivered five-six wins of value. Arbitration eligibility, payroll escalators and free agent defections that must be replaced are expected to boost the payroll by roughly $12 million even not withstanding Pujols. That's because the Cards have yet to fill their shortstop, back-up catcher and several relief pitcher positions as contracts run out on the incumbents.

St. Louis brass is going to look foremost to Allen Craig to fill the value gap as Lance Berkman slots in at first and he fills the vacancy in right. In parts of two seasons, Craig has delivered a respectable .290/.339/.503 at the plate with reasonable defense at a $450,000 salary. Projected out, that's about four wins of value over a full season, but "projected out" are two of the dumbest words in sports. It's fair to say that given what we've seen so far, Craig may reasonably be expected to replace a chunk of Pujols' value to the team, but by no means all.

The world isn't static, though, and the Cardinals slipped into the post-season by the barest of margins as a wild card, so they may need to improve in 2012. Fortunately for them, their main rival right now is about to lose their own slugging first baseman and two of the remaining teams in the division are in no position -- even if they were to sign Prince Fielder -- to contend. Adam Wainwright can be expected to provide a boost as he returns to the field after missing all last year to TJ surgery, but it's not unreasonable to expect that the loss of Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa might offset some of that.

My guess is that once they secure a shortstop, St. Louis will enter the 2012 season with a roster not every different from its current constitution. If contention smiles upon them, and the fans continue to fill the seats, they could acquire an asset at mid-season to further strengthen the club. By then, both Prince Albert, and his unspent salary, will be distant memories in St. Louis.

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The Ghost of Christmas Past

The thing is, past performance does not guarantee future returns. It would be nice when, investing a quarter of a billion dollars, one could expect some kind of certainty, but the only certainty with a 32-year-old (at least!) athlete who has a history of back and elbow injuries is uncertainty.

The Angels, of course, are paying for past results. In just 11 years, Albert Pujols produced more lifetime value for the Cardinals than all but four first basemen in history, according to Baseball Prospectus. (Lou Gerhig [17 seasons], Jimmie Foxx [20 seasons], Cap Anson [forever]). An "average" Pujols year in 2012 would put Albert at the top of the list.

Notice that? "Average" is retrospective, representing ages 21-31. Prince Albert won't be scooping throws for Anaheim during those years; they only get his ages 32-41 seasons. They have purchased an outline of a player in the hopes that it won't be the chalk variety.

We may look back on Pujols's 2011 bemused by the anomalous dip in his production. He had by far the worst season of his career at the plate, with the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, true average and VORP and the fewest hits, doubles, walks, total bases and RBIs of his career. (He's come to the plate fewer times twice in his career.)

Or we may peer down the slope that began its downward vector in 2010, much as we could see the sine curve of Ken Griffey Jr.'s career. In that case, the Angels are paying for some large fraction of the 90 WARP (wins against replacement player) of Albert's first half but receiving Kent Hrbek instead. That's an asset, for sure, but it's only one-third the payoff, which at $254 million, is a loss of $169 mil. That's a dickens of a return on the ghost of Christmas past.

Fortunately for Anaheim management, tools exist to measure the risk and color inside the lines a bit. They suggest -- assuming Pujols really is his stated age (hrrrumph) -- a partial bounce back in 2012 and then a slow, steady decline over the next few years. The last three or four chapters of the contract are likely to be more about stat-padding than contributions to the team, but it does matter to ownership if a 41-year-old Albert swats his 764th home run while in a Halo uniform. That might not help them directly to win a pennant, but if it puts buttocks in the seats, the extra cash might pay for a critical part that will.

That Mrs. Pujols and the Pujols progeny are promised $25 million in 2019, and then again in 2020 and even in 2021 nearly guarantees that dear ol' dad will still be lugging his lunch bucket to Angel Stadium even if he's barely more than a splinter collector. That, in turn, increases the likelihood that he'll be chasing some big-time records and co-habitating with the royalty of the sport, if not pushing them all down the charts one notch. 

In that sense, the signing might benefit baseball fans in general, especially those who don't cotton to steroid-tinged records, whether owned by Mr. Bonds or Mr. Rodriguez.
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Binge & Purge In Little Havana

Which team would you rather root for?

Team      Year 1     Year 2    Year 3   Year 4     Year 5     Total Wins

Team A:  85-77     85-77     85-77     85-77     85-77     425

Team B:  97-65     97-65     97-65     65-97     65-97     421

Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria understands that pennants fly forever, which is why he prefers option 2. That's the only way to explain his recent Christmas shopping binge for shortstop Jose Reyes, closer Heath Bell and starter Mark Buehrle at the low-low price of $191 million, and his offer to leverage all of South Beach for first baseman Albert Pujols.

Loria is trying to recreate the binge and purge Marlins of 1997 and 2003, who won the World Series with gargantuan payrolls that were promptly jettisoned. During that same period, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros had consistently good teams at reasonable prices, but nothing to show for it.

On the face of it, these contracts are all too rich for too long. Miami will be paying Mark Buehrle ace money ($14.5 million/year) until he's 37. The six year, $106 million contract for Jose Reyes covers at least four DL stints. Giving any closer not named Mariano three years is folly, particularly one coming off a 34% dip in his strikeout rate.

What's really folly, though, is worrying about your team's record in five years when there's a World Series to be won the very next season. With Reyes scampering and Pujols, Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez swatting big flies, the Marlins will offer fans at their new downtown ballpark a wholesome helping of runs to back a rotation of Josh Johnson, Buehrle, Anibel Sanchez, Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco, along with Bell in the pen.  

There are plenty of question marks in that starting staff; most notably, Johnson, the ace, missed most of 2011 with shoulder issues; Vazquez finished the season as Dr. Jekyll (8-3, 2.15) after a first half of Mr. Hyde-your-eyes (5-8, 5.23). But what team doesn't have mound concerns? The '11 Red Sox crammed six good starters onto their roster and couldn't find two live arms as their season slipped into oblivion.

So Loria and his staff are punting years four, five and six for three solid shots at late October games under New Marlins Ballpark's retractable roof. There will be hell to pay when the team is shelling out 32 extra large for a hobbled shortstop and a defunct 37-year-old lefty after that, but the last of it will  come off the books following the '17 season and then the good people of Miami can hold their breath while management dives in again.
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A Little Hot Stove One-Liner

I read that Manny wants back in. Unless there's a 40-foot pole lying around, I don't see anyone touching that without some serious smoke inhalation. 

A team wants to get its manager fired that badly can find a less painful way to do it. Like root canal without anesthesia.

Quick Note

Quick college football note: 

If (the semi-professional athletes representing the state university in) Alabama defeat(s) (the semi-professional athletes representing the state university of) LSU in a close championship game, the two teams would have split a pair, one at Alabama's home and one on a semi-neutral field. LSU would have played a tougher schedule, won one more game, and won more convincingly overall.

Wouldn't that make LSU the best team? Shouldn't they then be crowed the champion? Might not the AP, which is not obliged to accept the BCS verdict, select LSU as national champs?

The potential for a muddled decision  and endless argument is why most people hate the BCS. And why I love it.

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Hark, Ye Anaheim Angels Sing

In the epic movie, "It's A Wonderful Baseball Life," Clarence tells George Bailey that every time an American League team in Southern California signs a catcher who can hit, it means an Angel has just gotten his wings. 

That would be new general manager Jerry DiPoto, who quickly went about undoing the single stroke by former GM Tony Reagins (or engineered by manager Mike Scioscia, it's not clear) that cost Anaheim the West in 2011.

Last winter, Reagins/Scioscia jettisoned catcher Mike Napoli, who had bashed .260/.350/.500 with awful backstop defense in his first five years. Scioscia, a former catcher himself, couldn't abide the tradeoff. So they traded Napoli off to Toronto with Juan Rivera for the stinking carcass of Vernon Wells' five-year, $105 million contract, a swap universally reviled as among the worst in history. Many pundits agreed with the pronouncement of this space that any team willing to accept Wells' albatross of a contract should have been receiving players as a price of their largesse, not relinquishing a receiver, and one of the league's best-hitting ones at that.

The Jays then flipped Napoli to Anaheim's main rival, Texas, for reliever Frank Francisco, allowing Scioscia to enjoy the other side of the Napoli relationship. And here's how it went: like watching your ex-girlfriend hook up immediately with the former star quarterback who now owns all the local car dealerships.

Napoli got busy tearing up AL pitching (.320/.414/.631) and banking five wins of value to the pennant-fated Rangers. His replacements in Anaheim -- whoops! we're supposed to have replacements? -- managed a putrid .192/.252/.302, costing the Angels a couple of losses. In short, that trade flipped the Rangers and Angels in the standings. For icing on the cake, Wells clogged up an outfield spot with his .218/.248/.412 and at $26+ million probably prevented the team from acquiring a Major League catcher.

Evidently, DiPoto, who was hired after Reagins abruptly quit following the season, was paying attention. Job one: landing Chris Ianetta, the Rockies' offense-first catcher. Ianetta (.235/.357/.439) is no Napoli behind or beside the plate, so maybe Scioscia will stomach him better. In any case, he's 230 points of OPS better than the sludge that oozed behind the plate for Anaheim after Napoli's departure.

The upgrade cost DiPoto a fungible arm -- rookie long reliever Tyler Chatwood. All of which means things are looking up for Orange County during that time of year when Angels are purported most often to sing.

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Jim Boeheim: You're Not Done

This is more important than sports. It's more important than a coach or a player or a team. It's the most important post you'll read in this space.

The best man at my wedding has been my best friend since first grade. He is a kind and generous man, a loving husband and a doting father. He is loyal and hard-working and cares about other people. I have loved him my whole life.

And if a young adult came forward claiming my best friend had raped him as a boy, I could not unequivocally refute the charge. I could attest to my friend's character and note that the charge is totally inconsistent with the man I know. But I don't live inside his skin and observe his daily demons.

This evidently is news to Syracuse University basketball coach Jim Boeheim. Confronted with allegations of abuse against his top assistant, Boeheim vehemently denied the charges. As I mentioned to everyone around me at the time: his denial was ipso facto a lie. He could not possibly know their veracity.

Had that been all, we could forgive his outburst as the misdirected defense of a friend. But Boeheim committed a sin that undermined the cause of sexual abuse victims everywhere. He publicly called the alleged victims liars. The most critical factor in whether an abuse victim reports the crime is whether they think they will be believed. Jim Boeheim gave millions of past and future victims another reason to curl up and suffer instead.

Maddeningly, it gets worse. How did Boeheim know that the alleged victims were lying? Because there was no corroborating evidence. Good God: that is the hallmark of nearly every sexual assault. That assertion casts doubt on virtually every rape and molestation case there has ever been.

On the day of his remarks, I observed to friends that the Syracuse PR department had to be admonishing Boeheim to clamp his piehole immediately. All it would take is one more victim to come forward with a similar claim to illustrate how despicably Boeheim had acted.

And sure enough, nary a week passed before that very thing -- and then some -- transpired, forcing the school to fire the assistant coach. Boeheim, to his credit, admitted his mistake and apologized.

That was a good first step, but it isn't nearly sufficient. Jim Boeheim abused his considerable power to pour scorn on alleged sexual abuse victims. His words will make it harder to prosecute rapists and harder to convict them. His words cast a lengthening shadow over every abuse victim in Central NY and beyond.

Jim Boeheim must make a very public and quite considerable monetary contribution to an organization aiding rape victims and fighting against sexual abuse. During the public proceedings, he must elucidate exactly what he did wrong and state categorically how all reports of sexual abuse must be treated with respect and the assumption of truth.

Sexual abuse of children is an adult problem that can only be solved by adults. Jim Boeheim added to the problem and must now make amends. Anything less is immoral. If he refuses to do so, he should be summarily fired and universally reviled.

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Things To Be Thankful For

If your favorite sport is hockey or basketball, I shed a tear for you. Your top professional leagues are turkeys. Baseball fans have much for which to give thanks:

• God's blessing on 90 feet. Not one foot more or less.
• No clock to kill. A team can never win by quitting before the game ends.
• Ever fresh enlightenment. Thank you Bill James, Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Keith Law, Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Analysts, Baseball Think Factory, Baseball Reference and many others. Maybe most of all, the sweet swing of Joe Poz.
• Green waves of grass, dirt diamonds with a bump in the middle like a screw top, stirrup socks, giant scoreboards with real time scores, cityscapes beyond the outfield walls.
• The Designated Hitter. Anything that prevents pitching changes is a good thing.
• St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, NY Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, (St. Louis Cardinals) Chicago White Sox, (Boston Red Sox), Florida Marlins, Anaheim Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks. Nine teams have won the last 11 World Series. 
• Albert Pujols, this generation's Stan Musial. 
• The Hot Stove League. It keeps us warm through the long, cold winter.
• The Green Monster; the Monuments; Eutaw Street, Boog's BBQ and the warehouse; the rightfield pool; ivy; retractable roofs; and other distinct elements that make each stadium unique.
• A three-two count with the bases loaded and two outs in a one-run game.
• The people who bring the games to life for us. Especially Vin Scully, John Sciambi, Jon Miller, Dave Campbell, Bob Uecker, Gary Cohen, Charlie Steiner, Sean McDonough. 
• The sounds: of bat on ball, of ball in mitt. "Whomp!"  Of vendors. "Hat dawg!" Of the crowd.
• We're never more than 150 days from big league games.
• Best of all: sitting in the ballpark, watching the game, with my dad.

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Woe Unto He Who Signs the Best Free-Agent Pitcher

The Yankees have wisely locked up CC Sabathia through 2018 for the GDP of Cote D'ivoire, but woe unto the franchise that wins the C.J. Wilson sweepstakes.

It's a thin market for quality starters this winter, leaving the Rangers' worm-killing ground ball specialist as the prize mound offering. The market appears poised to present the 31-year-old lefty with something like a six-year contract worth in the vicinity of $90 million. This could work out well. The roulette ball could land on 17. Neither is the way to bet.

First, let's review recent large, long-term contracts: CC Sabathia ($161 million), Johan Santana ($137.5 million), Barry Zito ($126 million), Mike Hampton ($121 million), Cliff Lee ($120 million), Kevin Brown ($105 million), Carlos Zambrano ($91.5 million), Mike Mussina ($88.5 million), John Lackey and A.J. Burnett ($82.5 million). Smell anything there?

That's 10 mega-contracts with two successes (Mussina and Sabathia's first contract with NY) and one that remains to be seen (Lee). All but one of the remaining deals face-planted like a drunken klutz. (That Santana has returned just 14.4 wins against replacement over the first four years of his Mets tenure at the cost of $78 million is due entirely to missing 45 starts over the last three years. He's owed at least $55.5 million over the next two years, which will really determine the efficacy of his signing.)

With the exception of Burnett, all the pitchers above had long track records of ace-level performance. Their new teams celebrated their contract negotiating "victory." D'Oh!

C.J. Wilson does not have a long track record of success; indeed, he has just two years as a starter on his resume. He has impressively delivered nearly 10 wins against replacement in those two seasons while toiling 200+ innings. His ERAs of 3.35 and 2.94 are all the more impressive coming in a hitter's park. On the other hand, he delivered up-and-down performances as a reliever in the five seasons prior.

Wilson is also older than most of the pitchers named above. A six-year deal brings him to age 36. Wilson's age worries me less -- what with just 708 career innings -- than the increased uncertainty attendant to each added year of a contract. A $90 million outlay requires 20 wins above replacement to pay off. That's three MVP-level seasons, four or five All Star-level seasons or six very good seasons of work, a taller order than Wilson is likely to measure up to.

There's one more pretty serious demerit on Wilson's balance sheet: the Rangers don't appear particularly eager to sign him to a market deal. Research shows that teams fare better when they re-sign incumbent free agents, presumably because they know more about the labor being offered. That the Rangers are skeptical should signal to other clubs that a similar attitude is in order.

Nolan Ryan and Braindrizzling seem to agree: caveat emptor on C.J. Wilson.

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Taking A Page From MLB

Dear Congress,

You probably haven't paid too much attention to Major League Baseball recently. Denied the opportunity to grandstand on steroid use (oh, the children!), you've been busy with other things, like failing to fix Social Security. And failing to fix Medicaid. And Medicare. And the budget deficit and the debt and every other problem before you.

You might want to check in with the National Pastime again. See, the Republicans and Democrats of baseball -- owners and players -- have been experimenting with a novel formula. They've been cooperating. I mean with each other. They've decided that the good of the game is more important than which side wins in a false dichotomy showdown.

This year, without a speck of fanfare, the two side inked a five-year deal that will keep the industry humming like a beehive. Players agreed to be HGH-tested and to play in the All-Star game unless truly injured. The owners agreed to improve safety measures and to further level the playing field among teams. They -- choke -- compromised.

As a constituent of the game, I didn't get everything I want. The HGH testing won't occur during the season. The revenue sharing is still sub-optimal. The extra playoffs violate my religion. But on balance, it's an agreement everyone can live with. No animals were harmed in the creation of this compact. (Well, actually, the gloves are leather...)

There may be crackpots on both sides bellyaching about the deal. Fringe nutcases on the owners side who want to hold out for a salary cap. Left-wing loonies in uniform who believe their bodily fluids are inviolable. But those people have been sufficiently sidelined to achieve five more years of peace and prosperity.

Which brings us back to you, Congress. You've been acting like the NBA, what with the ideologues on both sides ruling the day. See where that's gotten us? Your "super" committee has delivered the equivalent of a lockout and cancellation of all games. 

Maybe you'd like to tinker with the baseball formula. Maybe you'd like to mix together some of the good ideas on one side (pay our bills!) with some of the good ideas on the other (stay out of unnecessary wars!) and find some accommodation that we can all live with.

Well, maybe we can't all live with it. The fringe nutcases and the left-wing loonies will have to be sacrificed, like Manny was. The Tea Party Being the Tea Party. Occupy Sanity. For the non-Mannys among us, five years of peace and prosperity would be a good thing. C'mon Congress, take a page from Commissioner Bud and Executive Director Michael Weiner. 

Less NBA; more MLB!

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Why I Love the BCS

I'm the guy. The one guy in America who loves the BCS. The one guy who thinks it's fair and that it works and that it's better than whatever system you're proposing.

And the evidence is all around you. 

Right now, LSU is undefeated. One of its vanquished, Alabama, sits in second place, awaiting an LSU stumble. The Tigers have yet to defeat #3 Arkansas and #13 Georgia to remain in the title hunt. (This is irrational, of course. The voters have no understanding of the concept of a game-and-a-half lead. LSU should be free to lose one of its games and remain #1, since it would have the same number of losses as its closest competitors, but against a more impressive schedule. But that's a fight for another day.)

In other words, despite slaying every foe that's challenged them, including two top 10 opponents, the Tigers are still in must-win mode. Why? Because the BCS is just a two-team playoff.

Suppose we had an eight-team playoff instead -- as many BCS-haters demand. Where would the intrigue be now? LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Oregon, Stanford and Boise State would have locked up spots in the playoff. The LSU-Arkansas tussle (and the LSU-Alabama showdown before it) would be irrelevant. Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State wins this weekend would pretty much cement the field. You could attempt to make a desultory case for undefeated Houston (signature win: a four-point home decision over UCLA) ahead of Oregon, but that's at least a four-beer argument. ZZZzzzzz.

The uncertainty and excitement fomented by a two-team playoff based on the whims of voters is vastly more fun. And it trickles down. I can tell you firsthand that the prospect of the home state Clemson Tigers being one ACC win from the Orange Bowl is mouth-watering here in South Cackalacky. (Don't worry: they'll Clemson it up.) I'm sure the possibility of BCS bowl appearances for traditional also-rans like Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, Boise State, Stanford and Oklahoma State are thrilling the hometown crowds.

So hooray for the BCS, the ignorant voters, the mis-programmed computers, the lack of head-to-head action. When every regular season game feels like a playoff, you've got the right formula.

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Pirates Get Closer to Playoffs

Think back to the searing excitement of the Dayton play-in games that blast off the NCAA basketball tournament. Remember how you wore out the edge of your seat awaiting the winner of the Northern Southeast Idaho Ag & Tech-Mildred P. McGillicutty game.

Great news! Baseball has just recreated the same heart-stopping sudden death format for its playoffs.

Starting next year, another Wild Card team will be added, so that after 162 games, a one-game tournament will determine who goes on to face a division-winner in the league division series.

The good news is that failing to win a division will have its consequences.

The bad news is that a yet-lesser team gets into the playoffs. The bad news is that the postseason gets yet another day longer. The bad news is that the Yankees and Red Sox become that much more likely to earn a berth every year. The bad news is that a team with a seven-game Wild Card edge can be ousted from contention by a vastly inferior opponent after one game. The bad news is that the more common a postseason berth, the less valued. The bad news is that this makes the baseball playoffs even less interesting and the regular season even less urgent.

The bad news is that on balance, this is bad news.

Halladay Cheer for Clayton Kershaw

D'Oh! The baseball writers have already crowned their NL pitcher of the year, tabbing Clayton Kershaw over Roy Halladay. It's never too late to critique it.

In a nutshell, this is a two-horse race and it's a photo finish. The two men pitched the same number of innings. Halladay relinquished two more earned runs, one run fewer overall. They had similar records, though a 12-1,1.31 second half gave Kershaw the shinier numbers. Halladay walked 54% fewer batters; Kershaw whiffed 13% more. Kerhsaw allowed one less baserunner every two games.

I can't fault anyone for giving Kershaw the trophy, though I would have selected Halladay. Chavez Ravine is a Cy Young machine, and Kershaw gets to pitch regularly against the weenie bats of San Francisco and San Diego. On the other hand, the 23-year-old southpaw went mano-a-mano with Tim Lincecum four times and beat him 2-1 in three of them -- and 1-0 once.

Halladay greetings might include a BABIP reference, with Kershaw's an unusually low .274. (Halladay's was a more typical .305.) But the .274 mark is par for the course with Kershaw, and can't be chalked up just to chance.

So take your pick. A majority of the BBWAA picked Kershaw; I'd pick Halladay; but either way, you've got a worthy winner.

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Least Valuable Player Is A Dunn Deal

In the midst of the discussion of MLB's best, a brief respite is in order to consider the worst player in the game in 2011.

In one sense, it's a short discussion. Hanging on the noose of a four-year, $56 million contract, the White Sox had no choice but to continue playing Adam Dunn in the hope that he could rediscover some semblance of the player who boomed 38 or more big flies and posted .850+ OPS in each of the past seven seasons. 

Evidently, Dunn was hiding better than they thought. Despite batting .159 with 11 home runs, Dunn continued to collect plate appearances -- 496 in all. He cost the Sox 22 runs at the plate compared to a replacement player, and despite DHing most of the season, subtracted another couple of runs in the field. His .159/.292/.277 reflects only one positive accomplishment -- the ability to coax 75 walks. Alas, the guy runs like molasses going uphill.

Dunn was beyond awful, of course, and shockingly so, but much of his wretchedness lies in his continued presence in the batting order.

For pure, unadulterated stinkbomb, there's Tampa first-sacker Dan Johnson. In 90 plate appearances, Johnson accumulated seven singles, six walks, two home runs and a double, and got himself plunked once (woo-hoo!). He made 74 outs. His slash stats are not for the eyes of young children or those with pacemakers: .119/.187/.202, costing the Rays nearly 10 runs in parts of just 31 games.

In the world of "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately," Johnson will go down as a . . . hero. Johnson's last at-bat erased a season of wanton dreadfulness. Down 7-6 in the ninth inning of Game 162, Johnson crashed a two-out, two-strike pitch from NYY reliever Corey Wade into the foul pole to keep Tampa's season alive. They won in the 12th to slip into the playoffs.

Rays fans will recall Johnson fondly, but in a very real sense, he was the worst player in the majors this year.

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NL MVP: Like Pizza for Thanksgiving

I have two words for you on the NL MVP race: context matters. 

If it didn't, the 2011 resumes of Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun would be nearly indistinguishable. Consider them side by side:

Braun: .332/.397/.597, 33 homers and 33 of 39 steals. 

Kemp: .324/.399/.586, 39 homers and 40 of 51 steals.

Now consider the context:

1. Braun plays in a neutral park for hitting. Kemp plays in a ravine.
2. Braun is cocooned in the batting order in front of the #3 MVP candidate, Prince Fielder (.981 OPS) and slugger Corey Hart (.868 OPS), and behind Rickie Weeks  (.818). Kemp swims alone in a vast ocean. There's not another .800 OPS wearing blue, and besides Andre Ethier, no one's even close.

In context, Kemp was a slightly better offensive force in 2011. That might not be enough for some voters to compensate for Braun's role as best player on a division-winning team. But here are two more words:

Defense matters.

Here's two more:

A lot.

Matt Kemp is a good fielder in the most critical outfield position, centerfield. Ryan Braun is not just a butcher, but a baker and candlestick maker in left field -- or wherever the Brews attempt to hide him. He reminds me of a woman on my co-ed softball team named Judy K. We called her Special K and played her behind the right fielder in an attempt to make her invisible. It wasn't necessary -- whenever the ball flew her way she vacated the space.

So Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun were both timed at 10 seconds in their leg of the 4x100-meter dash, but Kemp had to cover an extra five meters into a headwind and never drops the baton. It's kind of a chasm. Baseball Reference, which is actually pretty kind to Braun defensively, says Kemp was worth 10 wins compared to a replacement player; Braun was worth 7.7 wins. Two-point-three wins is a huge difference -- just ask the Braves and Red Sox. It surpasses the entire value of the Cubs' Carlos Pena, who pounded 28 jacks and had an .819 OPS.

Matt Kemp is the NL MVP regardless of how middling was the team around him or that he led the NL in RBIs. Braun, Fielder, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki all merit consideration -- in the same way that pizza merits consideration on Thanksgiving. It's a delicious choice generally speaking, but not in this case.
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Fifty Million Cheese Steaks

The stathead universe is all atwitter (in some cases literally) over Ruben Amaro's latest contract monstrosity. The Phillies GM has thrown 50 million cheese steaks at Jonathan Papelbon for four years of closing. 

Clearly, this kind of fiscal frivolity is a sign of the apocalypse. No relief pitcher is "worth" $50 million for pitching 60 innings-a-year, even 60 high leverage innings. Moreover, there is no more fickle bird than the closer. The Phillies know this all too well, having spotted Brad Lidge $38 million for three years during a stellar 2008 season only to watch him disassemble in '09 and '10. Over the contract's three years, Lidge rewarded the Phillies with a 1-11, 5.08 RA and 59 saves in 124 innings, with four trips to the DL as a special bonus.

Papelbon has been the second or third best closer in the majors over the last five years (16-16, 1.88 RA and 184 saves in 268 innings, plus a sterling 5.3 K/BB ratio). He's 31, the same age at which Lidge began his figurative journey south, but a different kind of pitcher who can withstand losing a tick or two on his fastball without heinous damage.

The larger point is that the Phils are all in for 2012 and maybe 2013. There's no point in crashing one of baseball's all-time great starting staffs on the shoals of Antonio Bastardo closing. (Man, that name is the gift that keeps on giving.) Inasmuch as every team over-values closers, the market has been set around where the Phils paid, so if they want a great closer, that's what it takes.

Could someone else -- say the A's -- produce a nearly-equal closer out of smoke for a-tenth of the price? Sure, but the Phils don't want the best value. They want the best player. They want a World Championship. That's why they eschewed a $44 million deal with Ryan Madson, the incumbent Philadelphia closer.

That's what separates the big revenue teams from the small ones. Small revenue teams set a spending limit and recognize that there's an opportunity cost to each acquisition. Teams like NYY, Boston and Philly pay what it costs to assemble the best club. And that's what Rueben Amaro is trying to do.

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AL MVP: Pay No Attention to Runs Scored and RBIs

One of the meaty questions entering the 2011 season was how much of his 2010 slugging value Jose Bautista could maintain. The 31-year-old Dominican went from '02 Hyundai to '11 Lexus in his seventh Major League season, pacing the majors with 54 home runs and leaving the Blue Jays to wonder whether a bucket of bolts or a racing car would return for the following year.

Bautista answered that by losing 11 home runs, 21 RBIs . . . and playing even better. He again led the circuit with 43 dingers, raised his batting average 45 points to .305, reached safely a Bondsian 44.7% of the time and terrified the opposition into a league-leading 24 intentional walks. His MLB-tops 1.055 OPS was impressive even for a right-fielder, but Bautista also spotted up at his natural position -- third base -- for 25 games.

Some will cluck at the Blue Jays' win total and Bautista's relatively subdued R and RBI totals (105 and 103), but all three depend on teammates. Bautista knocked himself in more times than anyone else, and he contributed no less to his team's pitching efforts (Toronto was 25th in the majors) than any other everyday player on the MVP ballot. Baseball Reference says Joey Bats provided 8.1 offensive wins, decent defense, and some lineup flexibility because of his aptitude at two positions.

The only real knock against Bautista is that he committed all his mayhem in the first half, tapping out just 12 home runs and a .442 SLG in the final 81 games.

Bautista's top competitor with the bat is Miguel Cabrera. Miggy led the league in hitting (.344) and OBP (.448), and posted a second-best OPS of 1.033, but had all the mobility of a beanbag chair on the bases and at the least-important defensive position. Tie goes to the good-glove third baseman, and it's not even a tie. Baseball Reference says Cabrera's within half a win of offensive value to Bautista, but drops another win behind when considering defense.

Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury is also worth mentioning. After an injury-riddled 2010 and deep concerns about his centerfield defense, the 27-year-old Oregonian nearly doubled his career totals in doubles and RBI and smashed 32 home runs, 12 more than in his previous four years combined. His .321/.376/.552 can't hold a candle to the above-mentioned, but at his position, Ellsbury was nearly as irreplaceable. Nevertheless, even accounting for his position and his refined glovework (much better routes on flyballs), Ellsbury is an honorable mention candidate.

(Ironically, Ellsbury's best season by far came at the price of his greatest gift. After swiping 136 bases in 3+ seasons and failing just 24 times, an 85% success rate, his steals total dropped in 2011 to 39 at a 72% rate.)

Two other candidates will be named by the ignorenti. Curtis Granderson posted gaudy runs scored and RBI totals thanks to a stacked Yankee lineup, and his team won the division. He plays a fair center field too. But at .262/.364/.552, the Grandy Man might not even be the MVP of his team (that honor might belong to Robby Cano).

Then there's the elephant in the room: Justin Verlander. I've already paid homage to the AL King of the Hill, but pitchers have their own award and comparing them to everyday players is an apples-to-giraffes enterprise. That explains why the seamheads can't get their stories straight on the Bautista-Verlander matchup: Baseball Reference says it's a tossup; Baseball Prospectus rates Bautista more than two wins better. 

There's another player who merits mention, even though he's not an MVP candidate. The World Series brought Mike Napoli into national focus, but he smacked the ball around all season.  In just 113 games, the C/1B/DH/ pounded 25 doubles and 30 homers, batted .320 and posted a 1.045 OPS. He presented himself at the plate just 432 times, but still managed to accrue six wins of value. He accomplished all this pillowed in the comfort of the Rangers' lineup and The Ballpark in Arlington, so take it all with a grain of salt, but a full season of that would have inserted him into the MVP discussion.

Bottom line: give the Cy to Verlander and the MVP to Bautista and all's right with the American League.

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Royals Win First of the Year

The Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants consummated a trade this week in which, not withstanding the relocation of a minor leaguer, each relinquished and received the exact same thing. But the Royals won the trade.

KC sent centerfielder Melky Cabrera to the Bay for fireballer Jonathan Sanchez. Both players enter their walk years. Each will be easily replaced by the club that sent him packing -- Cabrera by a ripe prospect and Sanchez by a stacked rotation. Each has mad skills but frustrated managers.

Cabrera, at 27, comes off his best year thanks mostly to a .305 batting average. Sanchez, 29 comes off another confounding season in which his high heat was too high nearly as often as it was too hot. Each has been a below average performer most of his career, but has shown one season's flash of excellence.

Here's the difference: hitters tend to be what they are, only more so as they reach their late 20s/early 30s. With pitchers, the career arc is so much less predictable. Sanchez is more likely to flame out than Cabrera, but he's also more likely to find himself and hurl KC up the ladder to mediocrity. Which would you rather have: a fourth outfielder (on a team of fourth outfielders) who's two clicks above replacement level or a pitcher who's equally likely to be tossed mid-season as to mow down batters Cy Young-style?

That's not to say that SF GM Brian Sabean shouldn't have made the deal. He got something of non-zero value for an expendable part. But his KC counterpart, Dayton Moore, lived up to his surname.

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In the Land of Ver, the Three-Armed Man is Runner-up

It will come as no surprise to you, nor even to the nation's baseball writers association, that Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the American League this year.

Verlander pitched more innings, won more games, had a better winning percentage, threw more quality starts, had a lower ERA, struck out more batters, had a better K/BB ratio, allowed a lower WHIP, produced a higher VORP & WARP, contributed more good sound bites and helped more little old ladies across the street than any other Junior Circuit hurler. According to Baseball Reference, Verlander was worth 30% more to the Tigers (8.6 wins against replacement) than the league's next best pitcher (Jered Weaver) was to the Angels (6.6 WARP).

The baseball writers could not have an easier choice unless Michele Bachmann squares off against my cat for president. (Tater in '12!)

This yawning chasm is no affront to Weaver. A marvelous performer with an 82-47, 3.31 lifetime line for the Halos, Weaver delivered 58% better results than league average this year, accumulating an 18-8, 2.41 line. He whiffed three-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked, and held opponents to seven hits per game. 

It's just that in the land of Ver, that's the warm-up act. The Tiger righty went 25-4, 2.40, whiffed nearly four-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked and held opponents to six hits per game. He delivered 70% better results than league average.

So let's get this one out of the way first, because the AL Cy Young vote is more old-style Libyan than new style. The result is entirely predictable and the winner will get between 99% and 100% of the vote.

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If A Series Goes Extras and the TV is Off . . .

The 2011 World Series was one for the ages. 

At least that's what everyone tells me. Most of the drama happened after my bedtime.

That's probably why I was such a humbugger when it ended. When I hit the sack after the 7th inning of Game Six, the Rangers were up 7-4. I never saw the tying fireworks. Or the overtime heroics. Or the winning homer. Never heard Joe Buck's call for the ages.

Hearing about it later is no substitute. I didn't experience the drama. I went to work the next day rested, instead.

Absent that one night, STL-TEX isn't even noteworthy, much less among the great ones. 1960: Maz's home run. 1967: Gibson over the Red Sox, 1968: Lolich and the Tigers beat Gibson. 1975: Fisk's home run not enough. 1979: We Are Family comes back from 3-1. 1986: the Mets storm back. 1991: A 10-inning, 1-0 Game Seven caps the greatest World Series of all time. 2001: D-backs dramatically foil NY's 9/11 victory. (The great ones of the first 55 years escape my worldview.) Since so many of us didn't see the Game Six pyrotechnics, it really didn't feel all that special. Wait, sounds like humbugging again.

On the other hand, no manager has produced the post-Series drama Tony LaRussa uncorked this year. Good for him. His ticket to Cooperstown has 2016 written on it.

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On the Ep Swing

Dear, dear benighted Cub fans. Your ship has indeed come in. But don't expect the riches to disembark just yet.

Newly-hired team president Theo Epstein and his minions are the real deal. Freed from the shackles of penury, Jed Hoyer will provide a bonanza to Chicago. Whoever is hired, the new manager will share the winning philosophy that the Epstein team plants at Wrigley. Brains, patience and money are a potent combination and they are in abundance on the North side.

The challenge facing them, besides 29 other teams intent on success at their expense, is the current  team composition. Epstein takes over a franchise laden with useless baggage that can't be thrown overboard -- at least not at a dear cost. Previous owners and management signed outrageous deals with cartoon characters whose actual baseball value is nil or less.

Take Alfonso Soriano. Please. The previous Cub administration took one look at his speed and power, and his one good year in Washington (.277/.351/.560 with 41 of 58 steals and improved outfield defense) and bestowed upon him an eight-year $133 million contract that he wasn't worth even if paid in Monopoly money. That deal has $54 million left as Soriano enters his baseball dotage. He hasn't been a factor on the basepaths in three years, plays the outfield as if he's searching for a lost contact lens and has a .308 on-base percentage over the last three seasons. For their $57 million, the Cubs have gotten two wins over a replacement player total since 2009. And they're in for worse.

Soriano is emblematic of the Cubs' problem. Only two of their 2011 starters took more walks than Ironside. Their team on-base percentage was a meager .314, despite playing in the (hitter-) friendly confines. For $39 million, the Cubs got .262/.323/.418 out of their outfield trio of Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome. (They swapped Fuku to Cleveland for a pair of farmhands in July.) The new management team may preach patience at the plate, but 36-year-olds who earn 27 free passes in 500 at-bats aren't suddenly morphing into Jason Giambi.

For another $32+ million, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano delivered a combined ERA 20% worse than league average, plus a combined TTA (temper tantrums per annum) of 4.0. (No thanks to Dempster on that one.)

The Cubs are stuck with all of the above-mentioned, except Fuku, and will either lose their best player, Aramis Ramirez, to free agency, or empty the bank to keep him. First-baseman Carlos Pena's contract has also expired, conveniently paving the way for a big free agent signing splash. Epstein starts the Hot Stove season with a $93 million payroll before half the roster is filled. And without Fukudome, Ramirez and Pena, only two of the 11 remaining batters with 100 plate appearances had OBPs above .325, and none is above .350.

So the OBP problem will not be solved overnight. The flotsam and jetsam will take at least a year to clear out. Unless Big Z stands for Zoloft, he's going to continue to plague the clubhouse. And no matter the skipper, an organizational transformation takes more than one year. The immediate forecast is bleak, but have no doubt, the ship of state finally has a working navigation system and a captain and crew who know which way to steer.
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Bollocks to Moneyball

Upon his retirement, Tony LaRussa, a successful innovator and sure-fire Hall of Famer, "ridiculed 'Moneyball' and its emphasis on statistics over human scouting and observation" according to the Associated Press.

Critics have smiled on Moneyball, the movie, but LaRussa has described why I was uneasy about the book and have no plans to see the film.

Moneyball, the book, cast statheads as cowboys and scouts as Indians (feather, not dot or Cleveland varieties). The analogy is apt because the relationships are far more messy and complicated. Scouts, like seamheads, are necessary but insufficient for the proper functioning of a Major League baseball franchise.

The real debate was never between stats and scouts, it was between useful stats and misleading stats. That's why the St. Louis Cardinals employ number-crunchers, just as every MLB team does, to help reveal some of the game's hidden insights. Over the years, new analysis has exploded long-held myths, including Larussa's signature creation, the folly of saving your best reliever for ninth-inning mop-up when you could employ him to put out fires in other innings. Maybe that's why LaRussa is sore.

Or maybe he's sick of the false dichotomy. LaRussa knows better than Bill James' personal guru how Matt Holliday feels today or whether Chris Carpenter can go on short rest or if John Jay can be relied on to drop a bunt. Team number crunchers have a better handle on the general efficacy of a bunt in a given situation.

In fact, LaRussa has been most renowned for his pitching match-ups, a strategy fully infused with both scouting and stats. The guy with the binoculars on LaRussa's left shoulder whispers that the opposing batter hates the high heat thrown by the righty in the pen. The SABR dude on his right shoulder notes that the batter has a .650 OPS against southpaws in day games. LaRussa's particular genius was to be open to surprising information, synthesize it and act on it.

Moneyball correctly cast Billy Beane and his band of mavericks as explorers who had found new worlds and were benefiting from the small competitive advantages they conveyed. There is absolutely no question that statistical research can unlock mysteries and disprove old customs in the game, though those advantages are becoming more nuanced and less impactful as the practice has become widespread. Likewise, there's no doubt that observation can reveal nuances unnoticed by the statistics. But unlike stats, observation can be corrupted by human psychology -- things like confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance -- that has no power over the null hypothesis or a two-tailed test.

Here's a World Series example of the two at work: Mid-year, this blog noted the amazing performance of young Ranger starter Alexi Ogando, who twirled a 9-3, 2.92 line with a .591 OPS-against. Spectacular, but with a .241 BABIP and some other component statistics pointing the wrong way, I suggested a decline was in order. Furthermore, Ogando had reached his professional career high for innings by July. The Rangers  noted this, not to mention his 4-5, 4.48 performance in the second half, and downgraded him to the pen, where innings aren't so readily available.

A statmonger could guess that Ogando was gassed. I'm betting that keen observers like LaRussa and his staff could see it. In any case, the Cards feasted on Ogando for 14 baserunners and four runs in only seven outs. (To be fair, he was great in 9.2 innings of AL playoff service.)

The bottom line is that teams fare best when statisticians and scouts respect and rely on each other for confirmation of what they believe they've found. It's time to forget the false dichotomy perpetrated by Moneyball and just accept stats and scouts for what they are. 

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