11 August 2008

Buddy Can You Spare $5 Million

On the off-chance that you happen to have a few million dollars to invest, I have a great stock for you to buy.

This stock used to be one of the top performers, like Google, or all of China. Recently its returns have been strong and steady, though paling compared to those of its heady days. The comparison to those unsustainable rates has inured some to the excellence of its performance recently. Some analysts wonder if this stock's time has passed, but you could make a lot of money with this stock, particularly if it's part of an already balanced portfolio.

Many people believe that there has been a cooking of the books recently. There has been a lot of circumstantial evidence, but not enough to prosecute. In any case, the public disdains this stock, except in Silicon Valley, where it has enjoyed more support.

If you run a business in some other high tech town -- Seattle and Tampa jump to mind -- you might be very well served taking a majority position in this stock. Whereas it used to require $100 million and a long-term commitment, you could probably win the bidding now with a $3-$5 million one-year commitment.

Many fund managers are wary of this stock for reasons that are overblown: It'll imbalance your portfolio, it'll scare off other investors, it invites too much public scrutiny. Many observers over-emphasize the stock's recent defensive position, ignoring the fact that many other great stocks have much poorer defensive strategies in their markets. In fact, the highest performing IPO in 2007 demonstrated very poor defensive strategies, but it is still rated a "buy" by most observers.

Look at the fundamentals of the stock in question; they are all still incredibly strong. With some one-time charges against profits last year, the stock is poised to deliver strong results this year for its lucky owner.

The stock in question is not a stock, of course, but a Bonds. In 126 games last year -- all in the field -- he posted a 1.045 OPS. He hit 28 homers and stole all five bases he attempted. He's still one of the five or 10 best hitters in baseball and could really help the right team -- of which there are many more than you probably think.

Were I an owner with visions of wild cards dancing in my head, I would sit down with Barry Bonds and have a chat. Make sure he's willing to be just one of the guys. Ask him to mentor the younger players. Write a contract that indemnifies me if his legal issues require his absence from baseball. Offer him a few million bucks to walk 150 times and bring my next best hitter to the plate with guys on base. Even playing the field, even playing part time, even on the woeful Giants, Barry Bonds added seven wins to his team last year.

My team could use seven extra wins. How about yours?

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