29 September 2011

EPIC!


Last night was either the greatest day in baseball history or the worst, depending on your heart's proximity to New England or Georgia. The double-barreled collapse of the Braves and the best team in baseball prior to the recent unpleasantness was so unlikely that no one alive today can expect their great-grandchildren to live through the next one.

Behold: 
  • The Yankees had not blown a 7-run eighth inning lead since 1950. 
  • Dan Johnson was batting .119 and hadn't homered since April when he connected off Corey Wade with two strikes and two outs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game for the Rays. 
  • The Red Sox hadn't lost a lead entering the ninth all year. 
  • Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel had not surrendered a run in 37.7 innings prior to September, but surrendered the tying run in the ninth. 
  • The Braves scored three runs in the first three frames against the Phils and then went 10 scoreless innings before succumbing 4-3 in 13.
  • Adrian Gonzalez has now played on three teams in five years that lost a playoff berth on the last game of the season.
  • Carl Crawford took a bounty to bolt Tampa Bay for Boston, then gakked up the season, then fanned in centerfield on the hit that dashed Boston's hopes.
The Red Sox and Braves both had 99%+ chances of making the playoffs entering September, according to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds calculator. That means the odds of both teams missing the post-season is at least one in 10,000. 

Indeed, the Sox were in first place after a slow start and were deemed the odds-on favorite to win their division. What the playoff calculator didn't know was that Beckett and Buccholz would get hurt, Wakefield's arm would retire before the official announcement and John Lackey would play as ugly as his face, leaving Terry Francona without any viable rotation options. That's despite roster spots for Daisuke Matsuzaka, Eric Bedard and Andrew Miller.

The Red Sox are another data point on the proof that you can never have too much pitching. You certainly can't blame the manager or GM for not stocking the pitching pantry. Everything just went bad once summer ended.

This epic bi-collapse also recalls the historic Met failures of 2007 and 2008. So, what's going on? Four of the six or so worst dis-semblings in baseball history occurred in a four-year span? The only weak theory I can propose is that the advent of the Wild Card and six divisions means that good teams, rather than excellent ones, are being watched, and lacking excellence, they're more likely to collapse. But Boston was the best team in the world entering September. Clearly, that's not the whole explanation.

It is a cautionary tale, though. Last amazing night would not have been possible with Bud Selig's two Wild Card system. The Cards and Rays would have clinched the last spot over the Giants and Angels a week ago. A 10-team postseason this year would have left just two (and a half) .500+ teams outside looking in (Anaheim and S.F. The Dodgers finished 81-80 with one contest canceled. Count them if you like.) 

In any case, last night was one to savor. America forgets about baseball in September most years, but for one shining night, people gathered 'round the tube to watch two pitching-rich teams choke on their missing arms.
b

24 September 2011

Stretch Run Observations


Lance Berkman evidently likes playing in St. Louis. The one-year, $12 million deal he signed with the Cards last week would make Scott Boras's spleen spasm. The 35-year-old outfielder-first baseman is posting a .301/.415/.552 season worth nearly five wins. On the open market,  Berkman could command a three-year deal worth something like $45 million. So why didn't he?

Apparently the Rice grad wants to have a life -- the kind that being a professional baseballer does not afford. As Kirk Gibson noted when he retired, he was choosing to be traded to his family. (They flipped him back to Arizona this year for a pennant to be named later.) 

This is particularly touching given Berkman's Hall of Fame-vicinity career. His .296/.406/.546 lifetime line with 358 homers and 1190 RBI, most of it in Houston's challenging parks, could use three more years to burnish a Hall of Fame case. After $94 million lifetime earnings, he certainly doesn't need another $45 million, but it couldn't hurt. In any case, Berkman gave the Cards a deal.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Which brings us to the curious case of Albert Pujols. Prince Albert may have fallen to #2 on the slugging free agent first baseman depth chart this year with his injury and a sub-superhuman performance -- .304/.372/.554 with a league-leading 37 homers. All but the home runs are the lowest of his career.

Now that Pujols appears merely to be a carbon-based life form, his price may have come down sufficiently for the Redbirds to consider re-signing him. With Berkman, Matt Holliday and Chris Carpenter lined up again for 2012, and the possibility of Adam Wainwright's return next season from TJ surgery, Pujols will have loyalty, a contending club, a first-rate organization and the best fans in MLB to consider in addition to the hundreds of millions of greenbacks. 
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Was it the injury-enforced rest? The three-day All-Star break? The dis-engagement from Minka Kelly? Whatever it was, Derek Jeter is spry again.

Jeter looked spent in the first half of the season, but has turned it on since mid-July, slashing .329/.383/.420. Today, Jeter blasted a back-breaking three-run homer against Jon Lester after flashing leather in the top of the inning. He charged into the hole, scooped up a ball that was past him and fired on the run to first. They did not look like 37-year-old legs.

This has still not been a stellar year overall for the captain. He'll finish the season with the fewest home runs of any year in his career. His mediocre 71% SB rate is his worst since age 23. His defense continues to lag most shortstops. Last year was the worst of his career, earning about 13 runs of value over a replacement level player. This year, he's at about five. (Both figures according to Baseball Reference, combine offensive and defensive value.)

Nonetheless, great players finish well, and that's what Jeter is doing. If he helps the Yankees win the World Series, his miserable first half won't matter.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

And now it's time for a Doug Fister update. When last we considered Fister's plight, he was languishing in Seattle with a 3-12 record despite a 3.33 ERA and three complete games. Fister left six different games down 1-0, absorbing the loss in five of them.

Since his trade to the hitting-rich Tigers, Fister has coincidentally learned how to win. Funny how that works. He's pitching better too, at 7-1, 2.02 with a lower WHIP and three times the K/BB ratio. Fister has ascended to Detroit's #2 starter behind Cy Young lock Justin Verlander and will have the pleasure of showing off his skills to a national TV audience once the playoffs begin. 

_________________________________________________________________________________________

It's been heartening to hear the baseball universe focus on the Red Sox' pitching woes as they limp in the general direction of the playoffs and not on their poor finish or lack of momentum or lost chemistry or some other shibboleth more common in olden days. The Red Sox, if they manage to stumble into the post-season, will not be an easy out because they lack momentum; they will be an easy out because they don't have a single reliable starter. Not one.
And if the Sox, in fact, are not an easy out, it will be because Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and/or Clay Buchholz re-discovered at least a soupcon of their regular season mojo.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Matt Kemp currently leads the NL in home runs and RBI and is four points behind Jose Reyes for the batting title, yet because he toils for a .500 club -- owned by a laughingstock, he is garnering little support for MVP. Forget that he is a center fielder or that half his games take place in high-gravity Chavez Ravine.

If Kemp adds four points to his batting average, does the Triple Crown guarantee his MVP selection? If so, how does anyone justify that? Going 3-for-3 tomorrow catapults him from also-ran to MVP? If not, how does another everyday player out-poll the Triple Crown winner?

In fact, the triple crown is Kemp's weakest argument. He's actually fourth in the league in the more important OBP, second in SLG, and first in the two combined. Ryan Braun, another legitimate candidate, is fifth in on-base and first in slugging. The two have nearly identical OPS. (Kemp is seven points ahead -- today.) They both steal bases like felons -- Kemp 40 of 51; Braun 36 of 41.

But if you can't see the difference you need Lasik surgery. Braun is a dreadful left fielder playing in Milwaukee with the world's sluggingest vegetarian hitting behind him. Kemp gracefully grazes L.A.'s giant center field and bats in a wasteland of a lineup. 

It's just another example of how the argument that the MVP has to play on a good team is just transparent nonsense -- if you understand logic.
b

18 September 2011

Random Bits of Brain Matter


Mariano Rivera is now the all-time saves leader, but he's been the greatest closer of all-time for what, six years? That was 265 saves ago. In the 310 innings since 2005, Rivera has surrendered about two runs per nine and he's allowed fewer baserunners than innings pitched. In those six years, he's whiffed seven times as many batters as he's walked. 

Dude is 41, throws one pitch and still dominates.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Braves phenom Freddy Freeman leads all NL rookies in batting average, home runs and RBI, writes poetry with his glove at first ... and hasn't a chance to sniff the Rookie of the Year award. His teammate, Craig Kimbrel, has a lock on that hardware.

Kimbrel earned a save Saturday by fanning David Wright, Lucas Duda and Jason Bay in order in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game. He did allow a weakly hit foul ball.

Kimbrel has turned the best hitters in the world into Phyllis Diller. (I.e., ugly.) In 75 innings, Kimbrel has more saves than hits allowed (45 in 51 chances, compared to 44 hits). He's fanned 129. Wait 'til he gets some experience.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Phillies are 28-4 when Brian Schneider starts at catcher. His batting line makes you wonder what he does with the other arm: .171/.238/.261. All the cosmos' dark mysteries combined lack sufficient intangibles to make a .499 OPS hitter an asset to his team.

Correlation is not causation.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Earlier in the season, you could have made a case that pitching would propel the Red Sox and Braves into the World Series. Today, pitching is the reason they're losing ground.

The Braves have lost Jair Jurrjens (2.96 ERA) to the DL for the season. Tommy Hanson (3.60 ERA) may join him. Derek Lowe (4.94 ERA; 10.13 in the last two weeks) might as well. That leaves Brandon Beachy and his 26 career starts as the number two starter behind Tim Hudson, and a who's who of Triple-A stars filling the rotation. That's not the pitching staff you want to send against Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart in the playoffs.

For Red Sox Nation, a playoff appearance would count as a small victory. Boston has frittered away nine games of an 11-game lead over Tampa Bay for the Wild Card, thanks to a tattered mound corps. Tim Wakefield (5.13 ERA) ran out of pitching utility 15 starts and two wins ago. Likewise John Lackey (6.13 ERA) the day he signed his contract. At least Dice-K had the good form to get hurt earlier in the season. Josh Beckett (2.50) and Clay Buchholz (3.48) liked that idea so much, they decided to join Dice-K despite excellent seasons. Both are back, but are their ankle and back ready? The only sure arm for Boston is Jon Lester (3.15 ERA).

If the Sox' answer to any question is Andrew Miller or Eric Bedard, the Yankees, Tigers and Rangers would like to raise their hands. The Rays may be the ones calling on them.
b

A Brief Respite


A brief respite for a moment from the sublime beauty of baseball and other entertainment.

On Tuesday, the state of Georgia is preparing to execute a man whom the governor, parole board, numerous courts and district attorney all know is probably innocent of the shooting death for which he was convicted.  The word for this execution is murder -- unfathomable, preventable, state-sponsored first-degree murder.

So I'm asking you to join millions of other Americans in attempting to prevent this travesty by visiting here and signing a petition.

There was no physical evidence linking Troy Davis to the killing of police officer Mark MacPhail in 1991. He was convicted entirely on the testimony of nine people, seven of whom have since recanted, some of them alleging police coercion. The remaining two witnesses are the main suspects in Officer MacPhail's murder.

The main argument in favor of Davis's execution is that he got a fair trial. Does anyone truly believe this should be the standard by which we execute human beings? 

This is not a referendum on capital punishment except in the sense that if capital punishment includes executing people whom we know are likely innocent then we can probably all agree that it must be abolished. That's a subject for another day. For now, let's prevent the murder of Troy Davis.

Please take the minute and add your voice.

11 September 2011

Sacrificial Lambs


The Bucaneers of Charleston Southern University play football in the 1-AA Big South conference against the likes of Gardner-Webb and Liberty. Their out-of-conference games includes D-3 powerhouse Wesley College. A perennial also-ran, the Bucs finished their normal 4-8 (2-5) last year.

The small Baptist school loves Jesus and football, but mostly it loves money, and lots of it. So the student athletes of the CSU football team started their season at Central Florida and Florida State, absorbing losses by a combined 124-10 score. CSU didn't complete a pass or gain a first down against FSU's regulars in the first half.

They came home with a trophy, though, besides the punishment they endured at the hands of bigger, stronger, faster athletes, besides the welt and the bruises and the breaks, tears and strains. They returned with a big fat check for half the gate proceeds, or whatever deal they worked out. Well, they didn't, of course; the school, not the players, gets the half-million dollar paydays.

The CSU coach told the media afterward how proud he was that his players continued to compete no matter the score and how they will take their lessons learned into their Big South schedule. But there is no education in having your head kicked in repeatedly by someone who outweighs you by 60 pounds. The only lesson for the players comes off the field: you're a pawn in the never-ending effort to turn pigskin into a revenue stream.

Charleston Southern is a small-time school without championship dreams, yet even it uses its gridiron program as a profit center. It beggars credibility to say that Division 1 college football is an amateur endeavor involving student athletes, which is why the NCAA and its Byzantine rules also beggar credibility. Someone tell me why the poor cannon fodder of the Charleston Southern football team shouldn't get a few quid for all the blood they spill.
b

A Quick Pigskin Volley


The big ongoing debate in the NFL is which quarterback is better, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. I sense that most people support Brady because of the dumbest line in sports: "He has three rings."

No doubt, Brady is a great quarterback. He's also a cog in the best-oiled wheel in the NFL (apologies to Pittsburgh.) Manning is the closest thing to a one-man show.

Brady missed a whole season and his team went 11-5 with a backup who'd never started a game in the pros or college.

When the Indy brass announced that Manning would miss the opening game of the 2011 season, the line went from Colts -1 to Colts +8. His backup was a guy with 40,000 passing yards, 206 TDs and a Super Bowl appearance. The Colts were throttled.

This has never been a contest in my mind. Tom Brady looks great wrapped in the fur coat of New England Patriots football. Manning looks just as good in a dirty rag. 

Don't take my word for it. The oddsmakers in Vegas say it's Manning by a touchdown.
b

08 September 2011

Addition By Subtraction


So it comes down to the Rangers and Angels. That's the only playoff race left in baseball, despite eight playoff slots. How did we come to this lamentable result?

We came to to this lamentable result because there are eight playoff slots. Duh.

This is the unintended consequence of Wild Cards. Carmakers developed four-wheel drive cars with traction control and anti-lock brakes, with the unintended consequence that people who buy them drive with impunity in snow storms and crash by the mini-van load. Designed to increase late season drama, the Wild Card has anti-locked the pennant race while halving the value of making the post-season.

Imagine if we returned to the days of two divisions in each league. The annual chewing of the nails could commence in full force in the Northeast for the AL East Battle Royale between New York and Boston. Assuming that Detroit and Cleveland would head East, the current AL West dogfight would be unchanged. Sorry Tigers, no contention for you. Does that mean Justin Verlander is no longer an MVP candidate? (Good luck defending that argument.)

In the NL, Philly has turned the competition to mush, so it wouldn't matter that Cincinnati, Chicago and St. Louis would go east. Milwaukee and Arizona could scrap for the West title where the Giants have faded into batlessness.

The result, three playoff races instead of one, each of which leaves the victor four wins from the World Series. It would be a bummer for fans in Detroit and Atlanta this year, but a gargantuan net gain for baseball. In the current environment, September games are losing the TV rating wars to Wheel of Fortune re-runs and -- God help us -- presidential addresses. Even Yankee-Red Sox tilts have been drained of their zing.

On top of that, a shorter playoff schedule would eliminate November World Series nightmares, reducing the likelihood -- now 100% -- of flurries, freezing rain and hard frost during the Fall Classic. Which brings us back around to the playoff races, which this year have devolved into a hard frost themselves.
b

05 September 2011

Amazing But True


Get Derrek Lee an eye patch. He slumbered through 85 games for the Orioles at below replacement-level and enough leather work for half a win of value. In seven games with the Pirates, he's smacked three home runs and a triple, batting .407, and he's already accumulated half a win of value at the plate. 

Fun with extrapolation: if he only keeps that up for the rest of the month, he'll hit .407 with 81 homers, 27 triples and 243 RBI. (It would also include 135 strikeouts but not a single walk!) His 1.234 OPS would be aided by 27 HBP.

********************************************************************************************************************************

Remember how Javier Vazquez flamed out for the Yankees last year and appeared cooked in the first half with the Marlins? It appeared his heater had lost its steam but it's warmed up with the weather. In the last two months Vazquez's ERA is 2.79 with a 4.8 K/BB ratio and nearly a whiff per inning. I wonder what Melky Cabrera's up to these days.

*******************************************************************************************************************************
I Left My Bat In San Francisco: The last time Buster Posey played a game, you hadn't yet fired up the grill for your Memorial Day cookout. The night after your Labor Day cookout, Posey is still fourth on his team in hitting value. Keep in mind, his hitting value for three months has been zero. Buster Posey and I have been equals on the field since June.

********************************************************************************************************************************
The Dodgers are making a run at .500, going 11-2 in their last 13 games. They haven't gained an inch on the Diamondbacks, who had the good fortune to play the World Champs.

*********************************************************************************************************************************
You might be aware that Adam Dunn is "scuffling" as DH for the White Sox. (This is a euphemism on par with "passed away" for people who are brutally murdered.) His .163/.289/.288 screams "Done!" not "Dunn!" 

Fun With Extremes: Dunn's hit a home run every 39.6 plate appearances, exactly half his career worst. Thank goodness for his four HBP and two sacrifice flies; without them his OBP would be 32 points lower. Against southpaws, Dunn is Sandy Koufax. The hitter. His .037 batting average doesn't include an extra base hit. At least he's raking .199/.314/.359 against righties.

Oh, Adam Dunn began the year batting third in the Chicago lineup.

*******************************************************************************************************************************

Remember how Derek Jeter was ripped for passing on the All-Star game. He claimed he needed the rest, even though he'd returned to the lineup from an injury before the ASG.

Apparently he needed the rest. Since the break, he's hitting .343/.397/.448.

Oh, and for you "clutch" fans, Jeter has been lousy with runners in scoring position even after the comeback.

******************************************************************************************************************************
Thanks to Beyond the Box Score for the leads.
b

Lee-ving Up To Expectations


We thought history might be made by the muscled-up Phillies rotation this year. They lassoed Cliff Lee in the off-season after pinching Roy Oswalt from the crumbling Astros before the trade deadline last year. Combined with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, yowzah. Joe Blanton, a #2 starter in pitching-rich Oakland, lost his tenuous fifth starter grasp in Philly.

So, as NYC mayor Ed Koch used to ask, "How'm I doin'?"

Here's how they've done: Oswalt has scuffled when he's been healthy, Joe Blanton has missed most of the season, Cliff Lee got raked for six homers and a 4.91 ERA in July and rookie Vance Worley has been pressed into 104 innings of duty.

The result: as advertised.

Lee's strapped it on in August -- 5-0, 0.45. Halladay's the leading Cy Young candidate. (16-5, 2.49, 7 complete games, 7.5K/BB ratio.) Hamels paces the league in baserunner stinginess with a .98 WHIP. (13-7, 2.63.) Worley's been a revelation. (10-1, 2.85.)

Even with Oswalt's mediocrity, (7-8, 3.80) and Blanton's struggles (1-2, 5.50) the starting staff has an ERA of 2.92, 34% better than league average. Despite Citizens Bank, the ballpark that hitters patronize for high rates, the Phils lead MLB in runs allowed. 

Consider this domination: Halladay is the best pitcher in the NL, Cliff Lee is the best #2 starter. Cole Hamels is the best #3 starter. You can argue about Oswalt, though when healthy he's superior to any #4. And no #5 has been Vance Worley's equal.

How does their mound corps compare historically? How about the great Dodger staffs of the '60s? The best of them, the '65 World Series winners featuring Koufax and Drysdale posted an ERA 26% better than the league in offense-dampening Chavez Ravine. The 104-win Braves of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Avery in 1993? The same 34% above average as the '11 Phils, but in an offense-neutral home field. When you're playing in that sandbox, you're bringing a really big pail.

Come the playoffs, it's an inner ring of hell for opponents. Because Halladay and Lee are horses, Charlie Manuel will never have to write anyone else's name after Hamels. With the Giants gone, the Phils lap the rest of the playoff field - in either league -- when it comes to starting rotations.
b

04 September 2011

How On Earth Did Buzz Capra Win the ERA Crown?


If the sabermetric movement could be condensed into one sentence it would be this: We have better ways to analyze the performance of players and teams, and better ways to predict their future value, than the traditional statistics.

New research demonstrates how nearly useless one year of batting average and ERA are in revealing a player's actual ability. Bill Petti of Beyond the Box Score looked at every player year in baseball history to determine how well one year's number correlate with the following year's. In other words, if Braves rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman hits .291/.352/.461 this year, what are the odds that he's roughly a .291/.352/.461 hitter, and not a .261/.312/.398 hitter getting good breaks or a .325/.398/.517 hitter getting bad ones?

The answer is that batting average correlates pretty poorly from year to year, largely because BABIP, which is a key component of batting average, correlates even worse from year to year. On base percentage, which combines batting average and walk rate, correlates about 50% better year-to-year than batting average because walk rate doesn't change much year-to-year. Slugging and OPS are about the same as OBP when it comes to year-to-year consistency.

In other words, Freddie may or may not be a .291 hitter, but whatever he hits, add about 60 points to get his on-base percentage and about 170 points to get his slugging percentage. (A .354 BABIP and a 3-1 K/BB rate suggest regression next year, though he's just a rookie, so natural improvement may  offset some of that decline.)


What correlates well year to year? Contact rate, patience metrics, strikeout rate and walks are the best. For what it's worth, line drive rate is the worst. Here's the whole chart:



.
Hitter MetricYear to Year Correlation
.
Contact %0.90
.
SwStr %0.89
.
Swing %0.84
.
K%0.84
.
Z-Swing %0.83
.
O-Contact %0.81
.
Z-Contact %0.80
.
BB%0.78
.
BUH0.77
.
GB/FB0.77
.
GB%0.76
.
O-Swing %0.75
.
ISO0.73
.
HR/FB0.73
.
FB%0.73
.
SLG0.63
.
OPS0.63
.
OBP0.62
.
wOBA0.61
.
IFH0.59
.
IFFB%0.56
.
F-Strike %0.56
.
Zone %0.52
.
IFH%0.44
.
Batting Average0.41
.
BABIP0.35
.
BUH%0.24
.
LD%0.22

It's worth repeating what Petti says in the article, that ERA has about the same correlation as batting average, which is why seamheads are working to derive fielding-independent statistics for pitchers. As it turns out, even in their relative infancy, those measures have a much better year-to-year correlation than ERA.

It explains how Red Sock Bill Mueller could lead the league in hitting in 2003 (.326) after batting .260 the year before and before hitting .283 the year after. And how Buzz Capra could lead the league in ERA for the Braves in 1974 (2.28) the year after sporting a 3.86 ERA and before posting a 4.25. (Capra started just 61 games in his seven-year career and, other than that one season, was a below-replacement level pitcher.)

All this can get ridiculously complicated, but even if you don't understand the underlying methodology you can appreciate the information. If you read that Jair Jurrjens has a 2.96 ERA so far this year, but a 3.96 FIP, that means he's been a 3.96 ERA pitcher with great fielding, relief support and/or luck and can be expected to tail off the rest of the way. (Of course, in Jurrjens' particular case, he's laid up, so no regression for him right now.)

This is useful data to general managers, fantasy owners, baseball obsessives and fans, in that order, and that is the order in which it has been embraced.
b

Trading Away A Division Title


The Los Angeles Angels -- or the Anaheim Angels, but not both -- have been nipping at the heels of the Texas Rangers for the last American League playoff spot. Currently they are 3.5 games shy of the division crown. Think they miss Mike Napoli now?

During the off-season, the Angels flipped their slugging backstop, along with fourth outfielder Juan Rivera, to Toronto for outfielder Vernon Wells. At the time I inveighed against the deal from the L.A. perspective, but I didn't know the half of it. Back then, the focus was on Wells' $126 million/seven-year contract, which was choking Toronto like a hippo in a snake. 

The Blue Jays were giddy simply to remove the last three years of Wells from their throat. That they got something useful in return was like winning a three-way parlay. That they got better players than Wells and shed payroll must have left even Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scratching his head. Here's what Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal aptly said about the deal at the time: “Most teams try to get younger, cheaper and better. The Angels got older, more expensive and possibly worse.”

Then Anthopoulos added insult and more injury to L.A. by using Napoli as a chip to improve his bullpen, sending Napoli to the Angels' arch-nemesis in Dallas for reliever Frank Francisco. And now the Rangers are riding Napoli's bat to beat the Angels for the division.

For his $18 million, Wells is hitting .221/.256/.398 and proving that he's no longer, at 32, a center fielder with the glove or an outfielder with the bat. At the same time, the catchers replacing Napoli (Jeff Mathis and rookie Hank Conger), are hitting at about a Double-A level, costing the team three runs relative to a replacement player. (Mathis has consumed more than half the plate appearances from the catching position and contributed .177/.227/.256 with more strikeouts than total bases.)

For his part, Napoli has delivered .289/.386/.572 and added nearly four wins to the Rangers while spending about half his time at first base and DH. Did you catch that? Napoli is plus four wins and his replacements on the Angels are minus a fraction. That's more than the difference between the two clubs' positions.

It's not that simple, of course. For one thing, the Angels didn't like Napoli's defense and didn't see a place for him at first or DH. They thought they had Kendry Morales at first base. Though he's hurt, Rookie of the Year candidate Mark Trumbo has filled in ably (.256/.296/.480) while Bobby Abreu has been the definition of adequacy (.252/.356/.355) at DH.

For another thing, Texas still could use the right-handed yumminess provided by Francisco, who's served as closer in Toronto this year. That takes back half a win or so on the Napoli deal.

But there's still this: $18 million for a fourth outfielder. The Angels will still owe Wells another $36 million of Arte Moreno's money over the next two years as his skills further decline.

All in all, the Wells deal was every bit the disaster for the Angels that any sentient fan could have predicted. At the very least, it's likely going to cost L.A. a playoff spot this year, and with a mound triumverate of Dan Haren, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana, they would have been a dangerous draw.
 b