Not As Close As You Think

The standings say the Rays have a 5.5 game lead in the AL East. Likewise the Cubs, a 4.5 game lead in the NL Central. With regard to their playoff chances though, the Rays actually have an 8.5 game head start over Minnesota and the Cubs are 10 clear of the Phils.

With 26 games left to play, it sure sounds a lot more like a sure thing now, doesn't it?

There is no discernible difference between making the playoffs with the best record in baseball or the Wild Card. The Marlins won two titles without winning their division. The Red Sox, Tigers and Rockies won berths in the last three World Series as Wild Cards.

So it's really not germane, from a post-season standpoint, whether the Cubs or Rays cede their division leads as long as they maintain their playoff positions. In that regard, the Rays aren't fending off the Red Sox, but the Twins. And the Cubs have little to worry about from the Brewers; it's the Phils they need keep at bay.

(Of course, the White Sox in the AL and the Mets in the NL might turn out to be the teams to beat for the Wild Card. Those teams would have to lose ground to be in that position. The Cards might also push their way into Wild Card contention, but they're even further back than Philly.)

With those kinds of leads, neither the Rays nor Cubs is going to lose its playoff spot unless the other teams take it from them. Even if the Cubs go 10-16 in their last 26 games, they still cruise into the post-season unless Philadelphia wins 20 of 26 games. It could happen, but it's only slightly more likely than a Nader presidency.

And for you Yankee haters out there -- (I'm talking to me) -- the news is equally good. The Yanks have to overtake Boston and Minnesota, which means they can't count on a Red Sox collapse to win the Wild Card. Down seven games with 26 left, they'd need a Rockiesque streak even to have a chance. Were they the Yankees who entered the season, that would be plausible, but there is little about the remaining collection that suggests they're capable.

Now Yankees, don't make me regret my words...