I got a chuckle today when someone on a sports radio talk show asked his guest his choice for World Series match-up -- Astros and Dodgers or the field.
Here's how I would have answered it:
Let's change the question to 1927 Yankees or the field? The field.
2001 Mariners or the field? The field.
A collection of All-Stars or the field? The field.
God and Satan or the field? The field.
To his credit, the guest correctly pointed out that too much could happen to sidetrack what appears at the moment to be the best team in each league reaching the Series. Besides injuries, poor play, and trades that improve opponents, there's the randomness of playoff baseball.
We knew last July who would meet in the NBA finals the following June. But baseball isn't basketball.
Thankfully.
In case you hadn't noticed, relief pitchers are hot commodities around trade deadline these days. Consider the haul the Yankees made off with for a few months of Aroldis Chapman last season. Or what Washington had to relinquish just a week ago for two good-but-not-great bullpen arms.
Now consider Tommy Kahnle, formerly of the White Sox. In 36 innings this season he has walked 7 and whiffed 60. He hasn't allowed a homer in three years (102 innings). Advanced defensive stats say his 2.50 ERA vastly understates his actual value.
Finally, consider that the team controls Kahnle at below-market rates until 2020. That's quite an asset right?
Here's what the White Sox received in return for sending him to the Yankees:
- The #30 prospect, now at Low-A ball (here in Charleston). Not the Yankees' top prospect, whom they received as part of the package for Chapman.
- Two other guys.
Seems a little light, right? I mean, the contenders all need bullpen help. There's lots of demand for someone like Kahnle. He's good and cheap and will stick around for awhile. And Chicago let him go for three guys who might never sniff the Majors.
But that's not the big problem with this trade.
The big problem is that Kahnle isn't even the best player in the deal. He accompanied the closer he'd been setting up in Chicago, David Robertson. Robertson, the former Yankee closer, owns 123 saves the last 3+ seasons and is signed through next year.
For these three Minor leaguers, only one of whom is really anything to look at, the Yankees didn't just get one top-of-the-line bullpen arm. They got two.
But wait, it gets worse.
Chicago also picked up the albatross contract of Tyler Clippard, owed about $6 million more this season before he becomes a free agent. Clippard has no value to the rebuilding White Sox and was thrown in as a salary dump for the Yankees.
So on top of giving away two first-rate relievers in high demand on the trade market for very little return, White Sox brass also did Yankee brass a $6 million favor.
This sounds like the worst deal since Lincoln agreed to those free theater tickets.
And it just gets worse.
You've probably heard that Greg Bird is out for the season. The flotsam and jetsam the Yankees have inserted at first have left them with the worst performance at that position in the AL. If they're going to make any kind of playoff run, they need someone to play first.
So the White Sox sweetened a sugar-coated deal by adding Todd Frazier to the mix. Frazier doesn't hit for average, but he's a Jersey guy who walks plenty and socks home runs and can slide over to third when Joe Girardi gets tired of watching Chase Headley not hit.
So to recap:
- The Yankees received a closer everyone was after.
- The Yankees received a set-up guy who could be an incredible asset for three years after this one.
- The Yankees received salary relief by dumping Tyler Clippard and his 4.95 ERA out of the pen.
- The Yankees filled a desperate need at first with the acquisition of Todd Frazier.
- The White Sox received New York's 2016 first-round draft pick.
- The White Sox received some organization filler who might possibly turn into something but probably won't.
The days of stupid GMs left us with the firing of Ed Wade in 2005. In fact, most GMs have a GM as their boss, often called a president of baseball operations, and they make decisions as a team using a combination of scouting and advanced statistical analysis. So the White Sox front office must know something I don't. But on the surface, this appears to be significantly less return than Chicago could have received elsewhere, or by swapping out these assets separately.
Finally, consider one more thing, the Yankees' bullpen:
Tommy Kahnle
Adam Warren
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman
I know the bullpen has struggled in the Bronx in recent weeks, but holy smokes that's a lot of heat. C.C. Sabathia never has to pitch another sixth inning again.
Since 2015, the Detroit Tigers have been perched on the canyon of crushed dreams. Though they won 86 games last year, it has been clear that their aging core and financial inflexibility were going to lead to ruin.
The Chicago White Sox are less in decline than in continued misery. Lousy since 2011, management finally accepted the inevitable and began selling off parts after last season.
This season, both rosters have been for sale. The White Sox, a stars and scrubs outfit, have auctioned off all their best veterans and stockpiled one of the best farm systems. Detroit is another story.
The Tigers, like the city that hosts them, are stuck. Their roster is fat with aging veterans on regrettable contracts.
- The great Miguel Cabrera, reduced to 13% above average at the plate but lacking a position on the field, is guaranteed $180 million after this season.
- Justin Verlander has a 4.66 ERA and $56 million coming to him.
- Jordan Zimmermann is a sixth starter due $74 million.
- The Victor Martinez ship has sailed and left behind an $18 million bill for next year.
In other words, the best players in Detroit would not be assets to trade partners. Even if the Tigers eat the bulk of the contracts, the combined value in 2017 of these four players has been one win.
While the White Sox convert assets like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana into top prospects, the Tigers are stranded. They probably need to endure this pain for another two years before VMart and Verlander come off the books. They've cashed in J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton might still entice some interest, but the clock can't yet begin on their future.
When I was in high school, the Ford Administration declined to bail out New York City from its undisciplined and profligate spending.
On the day of the President's decision, the Daily News, then in a battle royale against the even more brazen NY Post for readers, ran the headline, "Ford to City, Drop Dead."
It was a blatantly sensationalist and utterly unwarranted headline.
Which brings us to this post, whose headline is also mildly sensationalist.
The point is this: The Cubs' acquisition of pitcher Jose Quintana at the expense of top prospect, Eloy Jimenez; a top pitching prospect; and two other farmhands; marks a seminal moment for the team in their adventure to dynasty status.
When the feckless Cubs were dropped into the care of Curse-killer Theo Epstein in 2011, his first task was a gut job of the existing foundation. He auctioned off every artifact of present value, like Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, in return for future value that turned into the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Jake Arrieta.
Combining high draft picks and strong development, Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer built, brick by brick, the incredibly talented and youthful Cubs we have today.
By 2015 it was becoming clear that the rebuild was complete and it was time to decorate. The Cubs signed Jon Lester, flipped highly-prized Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, and turned potential star Jorge Soler into reliable closer Wade Davis. Epstein and Hoyer were using their incredible minor league stash to fashion a World Series champion.
With Quintana's addition, that phase is now complete. The Cubs' farm system is now deflowered, with all their prospects on the 40-man roster. If they are going to produce multiple World Series championships, it will be with this group.
For the next five years, for better or worse, these are the Cubs. There will be no more uber-talented teenagers to crash the party and suggest championships into the unforeseeable future.
That has huge implications for 2017. With the team floundering at .500, 4.5 games behind Milwaukee, the future is in the hands of the present. The cavalry will not ride in from the Minors. There's nothing of trade value down below to dangle in exchange for a missing piece. Either Kris Bryant, Kyle Scharber and John Lackey play better or they will miss the playoffs.
And the same for next year. And the year after that. As of this week, we have seen the end of the build in Chicago.
Well, that was quite a ride from April through half of July. A record home run pace, a record strikeout pace, some unbelievable performances by individuals and teams, even a classic All-Star contest. Let's take a look at what the next 75 games portend.
Biggest Surprise, Team Edition -- Chicago Cubs, no question. We were all penciling them in for dynasty status and here they are laying an egg in year Champ+1. They returned essentially the same team, traded a spare part for a proven closer, added Kyle Schwarber for a full season and they're on pace for 24 fewer wins.
Biggest Surprise, Dude Edition -- So many to choose from, but since I knew nothing of Yank Aaron before the season, Mr. Judge would be the answer. Lifetime .223 hitter Justin Smoak gets the nod among veterans.
Second Half Come-upance Award, Team Edition -- The Brewers and Rockies have to be thinking playoffs right now, so if either fails to earn a slot, they "win" this particular recognition. Unless, of course, someone like Boston or Cleveland topples in the second half. That would be catastrophic and outweigh any pretender's fall. But it's also about as likely as real health care reform.
Biggest End of Season Laugh Based on His All-Star Status -- When Kris Bryant's name starts showing up on MVP ballots at season's end, we'll be scratching our heads about how he was passed up for an All-Star berth. We'll see how long Zack Cozart's bonafides are All-Star worthy, particularly considering his new donkey-caring responsibilities.
Aaron Judge's Final Homer Total (now at 30) -- 48
Cody Bellinger's Final Homer Total (now at 24) -- 35
Avisail Garcia's Final Batting Average (now at .310) -- .284, the exact midpoint between his lifetime average prior to now and his first half average.
2017 World Series Matchup -- The AL and NL playoff teams that win the two (or three) tossup series necessary for the pennant. Bet against the Padres and A's.
Best (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Too many to name, like Cubs-Red Sox, Cubs-Indians repeat, Nationals/Dodgers-Red Sox/Indians (Scherzer/Kershaw-Sale/Kluber), Diamondbacks-Rays (no weather issues), and so on. No matter how compelling the match-up, none involving the Yankees is aesthetically pleasing, just because.
Worst (Plausible) 2017 World Series Matchup -- Rockies-Indians would be baseball's first Ice Bowl series.
Most Impactful Second-Half Addition -- Easiest question ever. Mike Trout to Angels.
Most Impactful Second-Half Acquisition, wise guy -- White Sox' Jose Quintana, wherever he goes, because he has two years left on his contract.
Dumbest Second Half Controversy -- Wasn't it amazing how little debate there was about Erick Aybar's attempt to bunt in the 8th inning of Justin Verlander's no-hitter? The score was 3-0, so the baserunner mattered. Verlander did piss and moan about Unwritten Rule 6.A., subsection L, but there has been relatively little public chatter about it.
Perhaps that's because the bunt got Aybar aboard on an error, the no-no dissolved that inning and the Angels tallied twice to force Verlander out and send the game to extras. Perhaps it's because the sporting public hasn't read the Unwritten Rulebook and doesn't give a rat's ass about it. Perhaps we're all coming to our senses. The evidence doesn't support that last one.
You might have noticed that all this is an obfuscation, that I have evaded the subject at hand. I don't do "dumbest." There's too much of that in America today. If you're intent on learning more about "dumbest," check out Twitter.
Is the All-Star Game better or worse now that it doesn't count again? -- That all depends: can you handle an ASG tie? Because avoiding the "travesty" of the 2002 tie was the only reason to shoehorn some phony gravity into it. Instead, you saw a 2017 version that was fun, carefree and absent the hypocrisy of previous editions. Score one for Rob Manfred.
Highest Floor Award -- Literally, the team in Denver, of course. But figuratively, the Dodgers and Nationals have to make the World Series to consider 2017 a success. The Cubs have their flag, the Astros have next year, Boston has the Patriots and Cleveland's just happy to have a team that doesn't suck.
Lowest Ceiling Award -- At this point, the Phillies have to be hoping just to trip on their own shoelaces a little less in August and September. Improvement among the youngsters irrespective of your final record is not exactly pennant aspirations.
The White Sox' fervent desire to trade off anything of value gives the players the rest of the season off, so that's aiming quite low too
And I suppose "try to avoid the cellar" is a pretty low bar, so here's to Oakland and San Diego.
The first half of the season set the bar high for entertainment. Let's hope the stretch run lives up to it.
You have more questions! I'm not done making up answers!
Q. Why couldn't you answer all these questions in the last post?
A. Like this one? You didn't ask it until now.
Q. Two years ago, the metrics said Jonathan Lucroy was the best
framer in baseball, and one of the best ever. Today he's the worst in
baseball. Can that be? Is he really worse at a skill that doesn't
require much athletic activity? Or are the numbers just wrong?
A. Yes.
Something
you said is correct; we just don't know which. Research has found that
Lucroy's targets are set a few inches higher now than a couple of years
ago and that might affect low strike calls.
We know that Lucroy was
catching better pitchers than he is today, and that could be reducing
the number of balls he gets called strikes.
And we know that framing is a
young metric that might need to be taken with a grain of salt just yet.
I suspect all three are conspiring to drag him down.
The
real question is, why does MLB accept a situation in which catchers
routinely confuse umpires into making the wrong call? If we went to
automated ball-strike calls, there would be no catcher framing. Problem
solved.
Q. Who was the biggest snub of the All-Star selections?
A.
They're not snubs; they're just different ways to split hairs. Of the
guys left off the original team, it's a shame that there wasn't enough
room for the bonanza of great NL third basemen -- Justin Turner and Kris
Bryant particularly. Elvis Andrus and Xander Boegarts were also worthy
of AL shortstop slots.
Alex Wood is having a great
year pitching for the Dodgers. Tommy Kahnle's been superb in relief for
the White Sox, though I love Terry Francona's decision to choose mostly
starters for his pitching staff. They deserve most of the slots.
The good news is that with all the injury defections, everyone I named will probably end up in Miami.
As
for the fan selections, I thought they did a great job. I would quibble
with Zack Cozart over Corey Seager for NL shortstop only because I
don't choose an All-Star based solely on half a season of work. Seager
is far more likely to maintain the pace than Cozart, which is why I
voted for him even if Cozart enjoys a slight edge so far in 2017.
Q. I know this isn't a baseball question, but what do you make of the controversy surrounding John McEnroe's comments about Serena Williams?
A. What controversy? McEnroe called Serena the greatest women's tennis player of all time but declined to anoint her the best without qualification because she couldn't compete on the men's tour.
McEnroe was simply stating a self-evident fact of biology. For example, the women's record for running the mile is 4:12:56. Five hundred six male high schoolers have run faster than that. There is nothing sexist about McEnroe's statement, though I would have added that in her realm, Serena is the greatest ever. She has dominated women's tennis more and for longer than any man has dominated men's tennis.
Q. What can baseball do to return the All-Star game to its former grandeur?
A. Eliminate half a century of improvements and innovations, like cable television. A more useful advance would be for old-timey baseball fans to recognize that the All-Star game will never again bring the nation to a halt.
Q. You said last time that Adrian Beltre is going to the Hall of Fame. No way. He's only made four All-Star teams.
A. Babe Ruth never made an All-Star team. We should yank him from the Hall.
All-Star teams are half-season rewards. They are meaningless when it comes to Hall resumes. In his 20-year MLB career, which is still going strong, Beltre has 91 wins against replacement (fourth all-time among third basemen), 450 home runs (third) and will secure his 3000th hit this season. He is a stellar fielder with 27 defensive WAR. Althon Sports and ESPN both rate him the eighth best hot cornerman in history. His top 10 similar players include eight HOFers and a future HOFer (Carlos Beltran). Guy is a lock.
Q. You seem to be selling the Milwaukee Brewers short. Can't they win the NL Central?
A. Sure they can; it's just highly unlikely. The race isn't always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. The Cubs just have too much talent, and the Brewers too little pitching, for the status quo to continue for 162 games. But who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Q. The Rockies seem to be drowning and now their Wild Card lead isn't so formidable. Do they still make the playoffs?
A. If I knew that for sure I would be tanning on a Tahitian beach or camera-hunting wild nyala on an African safari right now. I'd rather start the second half with a six-game cushion than deficit, and I'd rather put my money on a team 12 games over .500 than another two under. But who knows? It would be really strange if all of today's leaders made the playoffs.
Q. Name one player in for major regression in the second half and one who will rebound.
A. Anyone who follows baseball can compare a player's first half performance to his career norms and predict a return to them. That would mean second-half leaps for Manny Machado, Hunter Pence, Jonathan Lucroy, David Price and Carlos Gonzalez, to name a few. Conversely, it would tab Yonder Alonso, Avisail Garcia, Zack Cozart, Jason Vargas and all the rookie sensations for decline.
I don't have any insight into which guy has changed his profile and which guy is headed for a fall/rebound, though Price and Lucroy have been trending this way since last year.
Q. What changes do you expect now that the All-Star game is back to an exhibition without impact on the post-season?
A. We've already seen it: Tito named deserving starters to the AL squad, rather than loading up on relievers who are accustomed to entering games midway through.
Q. Will Miguel Montero ever criticize his pitcher again?
A. Maybe once. But then, never again.
Q. How good was the play Dustin Pedroia made yesterday?
A. It was a heads-up play executed brilliantly. It was a lot like Derek Jeter's play cutting off the throw to the plate and nailing Jeremy Giambi in the playoffs, but because Dustin Pedroia isn't a vessel we pour all our goodness into, it will not be lauded for generations. Nonetheless, it was every bit as fine a piece of work.
Q. Do you believe that participating in the Home Run Derby messes up players' swings?
A. No evidence of that. Some sluggers might lose their dinger mojo following the derby, but correlation is not causation. Sluggers suffer power outages all the time.
Q. What is your favorite site for baseball analytics?
A. I read Fangraphs every day. Baseball Prospectus has become a fantasy site, of no use to me. MLB.com, SB Nation, The Ringer, The Hardball Times, 538.com and local team sites also provide lots of interesting material. Also, check out the blog Braindrizzling for brilliant insights and unequaled humility, particularly if you love Derek Jeter, Ryan Braun and Donald Trump.
Q. With the Cubs and Red Sox in the win column, which team do you think is the most overdue for a World Series?
A. Which is worse, Cleveland's last title coming 68 years ago or Houston's entire 54 years without a ring? Whichever you choose is the answer.
The Rangers are at 55 years as a franchise without a World Series title, but that includes 11 years in Washington, so that pain isn't borne by the Metroplex locals. The Padres have failed to win a championship in their 47 years as have the Brewers and Nationals if you include their time as the Pilots (one year) and Expos (35 years) respectively. Seattle has had the Mariners for 39 campaigns without even a World Series appearance. After that, you're looking at ordinary droughts of 37 years for the Pirates, 33 for the Orioles and 32 for the Tigers. The Rockies and Rays have also never won titles in their 24 and 19 seasons respectively.
Q. What is preventing the best baseball players from congregating on the same few teams the way NBA players do?
A. The Yankees were doing essentially this in the 80s and 90s. It was terrible for the game. Today, there are so many barriers to hording:
1. Teams control players for their first six seasons in the Bigs.
2. The salary cap is very punitive.
3. A team would need to sign five of the best starters and eight of the best everyday players to resemble the Golden State Warriors of horsehide.
4. The game is played in the summer, consequently, players aren't clamoring to avoid cold weather cities. Milwaukee and Toronto are probably more comfortable to play in than Dallas, Houston and Miami.
5. Baseball players aren't generally able to transcend the game the way hoopsters are. They can't be as dominant and don't play in their underwear.
6. Unlike the NBA, the season matters and the playoffs are a tossup, so assembling the best players only guarantees a post-season berth.
In short, it just isn't worth the trouble and cost, and wouldn't ensure a title.
Q. I have a bet with a friend who says a team of average players would be average. I say they would be better than average. What say you?
A. You win handily. By definition, most MLB players are below average. Above average players take the first few positions and below average players divide the remaining innings. After the first three starters, two relievers and five or six position players, the rest of an average 40-man roster is sub-median.
An all-average roster would win, I would guess, 84-88 games.
Q. Have baseball analytics come any closer to quantifying the value of a manager?
A. I doubt it ever will.
Q. Is it possible, with all the objective measurements, for someone to be "most under-rated" or "most over-rated?"
A. The margins are smaller, but yes. Ironically, as we do a better and better job of measuring what's on the field it's the intangibles that become more weighty in discussions of parsing player valuations. A guy like Jose Bautista might be over-rated because he galvanizes the opposition. (I don't know how true even the premise is there.) Maybe Yasiel Puig the same. A guy like Mike Napoli might be the reverse.
The one guy I'd like to mention is Ender Inciarte, a terrific all-around ballplayer who does a little of everything. He's a speedy outfielder with good instincts; he sets the table and runs the bases adroitly. He's not a big power guy but pitchers can't sleep on him. And guys seem to love playing with him. So maybe he's under-rated, though it could be that many baseball observers already knew what you just read.
And that's enough reading for you, young man or woman, as the case may be. Keep those questions coming...
