26 April 2009

Ciao, Papi!

Take a power-hitting DH who runs like molasses going uphill. Turn over the odometer and expand the BMI. Throw in a wrist injury -- the very kind that puts the brakes on bat speed. Stir in a big contract. What you have is a career that's over, but doesn't know it.

You have David Ortiz.

Ortiz is done like burned meatloaf. It's not just that he hasn't hit a home run in April or that he's batting .217. It's not that his compadre Manny is gone or that last season was his worst with Boston. It's that the careers of big fellas like him fall off the table when their time comes and you can see it when he bats.

Ortiz can't get around on fastballs. He's got to start his swing earlier, making him more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Pitchers are no longer afraid of him, particularly in Boston's densely-packed lineup, and are throwing more pitches in the zone. When a player without speed or defense loses walks, home runs and hits, all he's got is his sunny disposition. As Leo Durocher famously observed, you don't win pennants with those.

Perhaps Ortiz is still recovering from last year's ouchies and will rev it up when the weather warms. We certainly saw Carlos Delgado find another gear in the second half of last year after it appeared that he was ready for his parting gifts. But Delgado is a better athlete than Ortiz. I'm betting that Big Papi is this year's Mo Vaughn.

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25 April 2009

Stop the Bailout

Let's hear one for the sensible natures of New Yorkers. (Did I just say that?) As you've no doubt read, Big Apple baseball clubs can't seem to sell out Citi Field and Yankee Stadium, particularly the high end seats, because their prices are -- I believe the word is -- insane. Frankly, the prices would keep me from coming more than once or twice a year if I lived in the metro area, and I'm a rabid fan (of the game, not of the teams).

Call me cheap, but each contest in the two NYC cathedrals counts for .07% of the team's final record, yet the Steinbrenners expect a family of four to purchase tickets three sections up between first base and right field -- in other words, nowhere in particular -- for $600. For one game! (Similar seats at Citi are a mere $276 for the same family.) That's before the outrageous Ticketmaster scam is added on top of it, before the $12 parking charge and before the $50 in hamburgers. And those aren't the deluxe model, cushioned seats: those babies go for $300 and up per ticket at Yankee Stadium.

It is my fervent hope that attendance in these two parks lags badly and that the franchises suffer financially. NYers should not reward their franchises for investments in fan stupidity, gullibility and slavishness. They need to learn that there is a severe limit on what the market will bear, and the same lesson must be made clear to their cousins across the country.

If cities are going to be stupid enough to devote finite resources (and lending authority, which is often pitched disingenuously as no cost to taxpayers) to build these edifices for companies that provide nearly no local employment and few concrete financial benefits, the teams could at least avoid the temptation to price their product as monopolists. I recommend this book to anyone who thinks that sports teams provide an economic contribution to their host cities, or that their abstract benefits somehow convey some financial gain to the metro area.

Or, you could come visit us here in Charleston, SC. Our mid-level single-A team notwithstanding, the Holy City has a thriving tourist economy based on real tourist attractions, not on sports, and we're doing fine. It costs six bucks to go to a RiverDogs game, the hot dogs are two dollars and everyone can see the field. You don't want to miss any of the action when the sumo wrestlers come out between innings in their inflatable suits.

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Sanity In An Insane World

As usual, Fox subjected me again this Saturday to the Yankees, without whom apparently baseball would not exist. I live 750 miles from NY, but get the Yankees telecast probably half the time. Add in the Mets and Braves (ostensibly my home team) and you have nearly 100% of the games we digital box users get to see.

In any case, the Yankees once again held their opponent to under four touchdowns, limiting the Red Sox to 16 runs. Of course, being the home team, Boston didn't bat in the 9th and since they failed to get out of the gate against AJ Burnett in the first four innings, they tallied all 16 scores from the 5th through 8th frames. The game exposed the Yankees' two major weaknesses: utterly no bench and worse relief than Srebrenica. Because he's forced to carry 13 pitchers, Joe Girardi is out of options after he pinch hits twice.

**

It was fun to note how fickle this game is. Reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia committed a costly baserunning gaffe with a man on third to extinguish an inning and then Bucknered an inning-ending grounder into a two-run, game tying error. Meanwhile reputed gamer Derek Jeter fanned in a critical situation. (I believe there was second and third with one out in a one-run game.) Even Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, who by their own on-air admission stifle orgasms everytime they mention Jeter's name, were forced to admit that it was the biggest at-bat in the contest up to that point.

Meanwhile, AJ Burnett cruised through the first four innings and then coughed up a hairball in the fifth, serving up a bases-juiced tater to former Major Leaguer Jason Varitek. ( You may be too young to remember when he could hit.) For Mike Lowell, on the other hand, it was a moral victory if he could just make contact against Burnett in the first five innings; he ended up with a homer, a double and six RBIs.

**

Though he was ineffective for the first five innings, Josh Beckett found himself staked to an 8-6 lead heading into the top of the 6th. At that point, McCarver opined that Terry Francona is a moron. Well, he didn't say it quite that way; what he said was that Francona was sending Beckett back into the fray so he could get the win. If Terry Francona is managing so that his players can compile personal statistics -- meaningless ones at that -- he is mentally retarded. I say this with all due respect to people with mental retardation, and I think we can all agree that no such person should be the field manager of a $100 million enterprise. Based on that comment, I guess we can include Mr. McCarver. (Also worth noting: Beckett was already positioned to chalk up the W.)

Fortunately for Saux Nation, Francona did no such thing. He sent out Beckett either because he thought the right-hander had found his way in the scoreless 5th or because his bullpen was worn out from the previous night's 11-inning affair. As it turned out, Beckett surrendered two more runs without recording an out and was long gone by the time Hideki Okajima was "credited" with the win.

Okajima "earned" the win by getting an out to end the seventh inning, watching his team score three runs in the bottom of the frame to provide a two-run cushion, and then sitting on the bench and admiring the work of Ramon Ramirez, who shut down the Yankees in the 8th. This was highly necessary after Okajima allowed half the lead to disappear when he grooved one to Robby Cano, who redirected it some 400 feet in the other direction. Of course, on an afternoon when Beckett and Burnett each pitched five innings, gave up eight runs and avoided being charged with a loss, Okajima's performance appeared win-worthy.

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23 April 2009

Hold This Stat

Every election, reporters -- particularly broadcast reporters -- dutifully relate how much money has been raised by candidates for everything from city council to president. Is this information relevant? Elections suggest it is not. Both Barak Obama and George Bush raised hundreds of millions of dollars and thumbed their noses at federal campaign limits. Is this information interesting? Do you really want to hear a list of candidates and how much they've raised?

So why is this information reported during each election cycle? Because it's so easy to obtain and understand that even a broadcast reporter can dig it up and spit it out.

And that, my friends, is why the Associated Press is now including the Hold in its baseball box scores, even though there is not a baseball fan this side of the Andromeda galaxy who puts any stock in this statistic.

Of all the many useful new measurements that could actually increase readers' understanding of the game -- VORP, BABIP, EQA, Win Shares -- the AP has decided to identify holds because any innumerate, third-rate intern on the overnight shift can figure it out while monitoring Sports Center and scanning the police blotter. VORP, on the other hand, requires a working knowledge of multiplication's profound complexities and division's subtle nuances.

Any reliever who comes in with a lead of three runs or less and doesn't blow it gets a hold. And I mean any. Thus, a right-handed 29-year-old gentleman named Bobby Korecky, despite a generally unimpressive 5.31 ERA, 11 walks and six strikeouts in 20.7 innings of MLB experience, can brag to his homeys that he was credited by the baseball world for "holding" the Rockies during his brief stint in the Diamondbacks' game on April 22, 2009. What Korecky did in unofficial terms was "stink," though fortunately for him Elias Sports Bureau records no such evaluation.

Here is a snapshot of Korecky's performance: He entered the game in the sixth inning with a 6-3 Arizona lead and managed to retire two batters before being run out of the game on a hit and two walks, two runs scored and the beginning of the rally that led to a 9-6 Colorado win. Way to hold 'em, Bobby!

Maybe I have it wrong. Perhaps publishing the hold is part of a diabolical AP plot to enhance the perceived value of the save. Only in comparison to the utterly worthless hold does the generally useless save vindicate its existence. Bwa-ha-ha-ha. It's a Machiavellian scheme by the evil geniuses at AP, I tell you!

Save us!

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22 April 2009

Coupla Quick Hits

How good is Roy Halladay? The box score in my newspaper says the accomplished Texas offense "roughed him up" last night by scoring five times. Okay, but Halladay pitched eight innings, surrendered eight hits, walked nobody and struck out nine. If that's roughing him up, your team is doomed if he has a mediocre start against you.

The same paper celebrates the "surging" Pirates following its win over Florida...its second in a row. If that's a surge, I can leave my computer plugged in during a lightning storm. In case you're wondering, Pittsburgh is 6-4 in its last 10. Look out respectability!

There's a larger point here: there are no trends in the first 15 games of the season, so you can stop looking for them. They haven't even played one-tenth of the season. Today's team looks very different than the one that ends the campaign, whether because of injuries, performance, trades, call-ups or some combination of all of them.

More importantly, it's way too early for conclusions. If a team wins 22 of 30, okay, that's a trend. A couple in a row -- against the same team? C'mon.

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19 April 2009

Notes From the Bleacher Seats

Mid-April, a time in baseball to ignore your fantasy team so that you don't make any rash decisions. Folks, the Blue Jays will not lead the AL in runs scored, so take a deep breath and just enjoy America's pastime without jumping to any conclusions.

A few observations, on the other hand, are in order:

Just What They're Looking For
This is how the Met brain trust drew it up, at least on one side of the ball. Johan Santana strikes out seven in as many shutout innings, J.J. Putz and KRod fan four in two innings of one-hit ball, and a solid defensive lineup clamps down the Brewers.

Expect To See More of This
Tim Lincecum shakes off a couple of rough starts and blanks Arizona for eight innings without walking a batter for the Giants . He also whiffs 13 Diamondbacks. Great. San Francisco, whose cleanup hitter is Bengie Molina, loses 2-0. Get used to it.

Same script for the Mariners, another team with the hit-making ability of Dexys Midnight Runers. Eric Bedard, still healthy after two full weeks, pitches six solid innings, but Seattle's bats remain quiet against the vaunted Detroit mound corps, which prevails 2-0. With the AL West up for grabs, look for Anaheim, Texas and Oakland to circle every Seattle series on their calendars.

Manny Ramirez smacks two home runs and drops a fly ball, as the Dodgers maintain their hold on first place in the NL West. That's the trade-off you make with Manny and it usually accrues to his team's advantage. But it's got to play havoc with the mellow head Joe Torre's been cultivating in L.A.

Enjoy It While You Can
With a second straight come-from-behind win, this time off a closer who hadn't blown a save in 18 months, the Padres beat the World Champs and improved their record to 9-3. Don't believe the hype. San Diego is a dreadful team. Sixteen runs in two games not withstanding, they have no offense to complement their lack of pitching.

Buyer Beware
The Marlins are an intriguing young team, but let's not throw a playoff party for them just yet. Remember that they've been playing the Nationals, whose management seems to share their host city's good judgment and fiscal discipline. If chronic poor performance is reason for a bailout, this team needs to have a talk with Tim Geithner. Think you can name three members of the Washington pitching staff? You're officially a baseball geek.

There May Actually Be A God
It's fun watching the Yankees self-destruct, if only for one day. It wasn't just Chien-Ming Wang's inability to keep the ball below hitters' navels, but the March of the Penguins behind him that is supposed to be the NY bullpen. The Yanks aren't going to lose a lot of 22-4 games; in fact, they may not lose a lot of games period, but it was nice to see the team's deficiencies showcased on national TV. Their defense-first center fielder dropping a fly ball, their slowing shortstop failing to get to any bouncing ball in his vicinity, their complete lack of a bench -- no wonder they spent the GDP of Botswana for three good players. It's hard to imagine this team beating Boston without some mid-season superstar repurchase program provided by a rebuilding team. Note to Brian Cashman: crappy pitching staffs aren't improved by bringing in more bad pitchers. Carrying 13 pitchers leaves Joe Girardi without options in the field, especially with four DHs in the lineup. For all their stars, this is one of the most poorly constructed teams in baseball.

Twenty-four more glorious weeks of this...and then the playoffs!

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10 April 2009

The Lessons of Nick Adenhart & Friends

Words are utterly insufficient when contemplating the avoidable loss of three young lives. Shaking our heads, whispering prayers, stopping for a moment to contemplate the tragedy -- none of that makes the untimely deaths of Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart and two friends any more sensible. Smarter people than I have tried and failed to capture the scope of the tragedy.

Preliminary reports indicate that the driver who caused the accident was drunk, had driven drunk before, was driving with a suspended license and fled the scene. I think there is broad agreement across the nation that such a person has committed murder and deserves severe punishment.

I'm angry at that guy, just as you are. But I also recognize that he is probably an alcoholic. He has a paralyzing disease that makes him drink. And when he's drunk, he doesn't have the good judgment to avoid driving. That's not an excuse, but it's important to keep in mind when devising policy.

We need to stop social drinkers from driving and keep alcoholics away from cars altogether. We've done a pretty good job of the former, although our attitudes towards first-time offenders (see Tony LaRussa, Charles Barkley, Michael Phelps, et. al.) are way too lax and forgiving, particularly compared to our shrill, "reefer madness" response to casual marijuana use.

With respect to the latter, we have more work to do. People who drive drunk should lose their licenses for some period of time -- say a month -- that can demonstrate how inconvenient it would be to lose driving privileges altogether. They should be screened for abuse issues and sent to rehabilitation if they are alcoholic, and their licenses should not be returned until they demonstrate they are in remission.

Any subsequent DUI arrests should end driving careers more or less permanently. Perhaps cars should even be impounded. That way alcoholics don't have opportunities to get other people killed.

One thing is for sure: if you drive drunk on a suspended license, you're a felon and ought to be locked up for a long time. We need to protect our communities from one of the most lethal diseases in America, and prevent as many future Nick Adenharts as possible.

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MLB Staying True To The Game

The NBA and NHL are turning the ignition on their playoffs, which is always a good time for baseball. These two leagues have taken wonderful sports and diluted them to the point of irrelevance, a vivid contrast to baseball.

It's interesting too how basketball and hockey are so far apart on the playoff loop that they're in the same place. In the NBA, half the teams make the playoffs, but only four or five have any realistic chance of winning the championship. It makes the final weeks of the season and the first few rounds of the playoffs largely meaningless.

Hockey's just the opposite. There's little correlation between regular season performance and Stanley Cup results, meaning any team that makes the tournament has a realistic shot if its goalie gets hot. (The top regular season team in the league has never won the Cup in the expanded playoff format.) Since seeding is insignificant, so is most of the season. The only part of the regular season that matters in the NHL is the last two weeks as middle feeders battle for the final playoff spots. Ironically, the sports media seems to stop paying what little attention they give hockey at just that point.

As we inaugurate the baseball season, who's a playoff lock? The Yankees, Sox and Rays have to contend with each other. The Cubs look like a good bet, but so did Enron. And who's playing for honorable mention? The Pirates, Padres and Nationals to be sure, and I wouldn't want my life to depend on the Mariners, Orioles, Blue Jays or Astros either. Nonetheless, each of them has a better shot than the #8 seeds in the NBA playoffs, who have to beat Cleveland and L.A. respectively.

It's another feather to add to Bud Selig's hat. Most baseball fans think of him as Bozo the Commissioner, but there's a lot to be said for avoiding the temptation to rob Peter's regular season to pay Paul's playoffs. Have fun NBA and NHL, and let me know when you're done.

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07 April 2009

Audio Killed The Radio Star

Radio is dead, but MLB Audio is alive and humming through my computer for $14.95 a year. I can get the home and away broadcast of every single Major League game. That's 2,430 choices.

Yesterday I listened to the Rangers call of the Texas-Cleveland game while I worked. The Ranger announcers were balanced and unobtrusive. The spent a lot of time in a 9-1 game contrasting Cliff Lee's 2008 season with his 2009 debut. That's good insights about an opposing player.

At night I had the Astros-Cubs contest on my home computer. The Houston announcers are homers of the worst sort. Not only do they use first person references to the team and openly root for them, but they have almost nothing to say about the opposition. It's quite possible that Houson and Chicago will take up residence on opposite ends of the NL standings. Wouldn't Astro fans like to know something about the best team in the league?

I'm looking forward to getting Vin Scully and Jon Miller's calls and discovering some great announcers elsewhere. I'm hoping to wangle John Sciambi and Gary Cohen broadcasts, even though they do TV. I lack the bandwidth to buy the TV package; otherwise $79.95 to get the video feeds is a steal. (There are blackout rules, so if you're hung up on your local team you're probably out of luck.) Bravo for Major League Baseball for leading the way in alternative media, the proceeds of which are shared equally among the teams. Remember to credit Bud Selig for innovations like this when you denigrate his commissionership for a missed World Series and an All-Star game tie.

Heaven, man; I'm in heaven. It's baseball season. This afternoon, Royals and White Sox. After a beautiful wife, a healthy family and food on the table, what more could a man desire?

Running the Numbers

Great NY Times article on the use of computer simulations in baseball.

The main takeaway from it is this: there is no debate in baseball team offices about the value of advanced analytics: teams are spending millions on it to get an edge.

The article also mentions that steals, bunts and intentional walks are not necessarily good strategies. To clarify: all of them are good strategies when used judiciously.

It takes two swiped bases to offset a caught stealing, so you should rarely attempt a steal if there isn't a 70% chance of success. The out sacrificed to move a runner into scoring position reduces the average number of runs you'll subsequently score that inning, but with a pitcher at bat, or when one run is all you need, it may be an effective strategy. Intentional walks make sense in some situations that improve match-ups or where the added baserunner is irrelevant. Likely, all of these strategies are overused. It's no surprise that the two teams that employ them least -- the Saux and the A's -- are the most statistically savvy.

06 April 2009

Opening Night

What an Opening Night! Who would have imagined that the World Champs would be on pace to lose all their games?

Or that unheralded Jordan Schafer would run away with both Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, with an OBP of .750 and a SLG of 1.600?

Or that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley would bat .000, while Brian McCann slugged 162 homers and collected 324 RBI?

Or that Derek Lowe would win all 35 of his starts with a perfect ERA and an OBP against of .077, while Brett Myers would lose all of his while surrendering four homers per nine innings, as they're on pace to do?

Or how about the bizarre season that Mike Gonzalez is on pace for: no saves, an ERA of 9.00, a WHIP of 3.00, but 324 strikeouts.

The big question, of course, can they keep it up?

03 April 2009

A Random Thought

More on team previews.

What do Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman, Jake Peavy, Adam Dunn, Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton and Ichiro Suzuki have in common?

They're all really good players. And they all play for bad -- in some cases awful -- teams.

Baseball fans tend to count up the stars when evaluating teams' prospects, but it's more often the absence of holes that determines the final standings. Nearly every team has a trio of guys who can pound in the middle of the order and a couple of live arms at the top of the rotation. Most decent relievers can rack up saves. How hard is it to get three outs before the other team scores three runs?

The real measure of your favorite side is in the margins. Check the team's fourth starter, its number seven hitter, its second-best set-up man. How good is the fourth outfielder and the backup catcher? Their level of play tells you about the players in front of them as well as the team depth. That's where I look to determine a team's strength.

Preview Review

It's a beautiful time of year, when every publication this side of The Economist runs its baseball preview. (The editors of that august journal might find it less depressing these days to follow suit.) I've been gobbling them up and watching the needle on the Ignorance Meter pin the red end.

Take this from the Associated Press on the Cincinnati Reds:
"If Aaron Harang can bounce back from a down year, the rotation can be one of the league's best."

Well, I suppose it could, assuming a litany of other unlikely scenarios occurs contemporaneously. Harang would have to bounce back from a down year while at the same time Edinson Volquez would again have to pitch his brains out, Johnny Cueto would have to improve on his 4.81 ERA and someone would have to fill the fourth and fifth slots, and among the current someones is Josh Fogg, whose ERA of 7.58 from last season looks more like a good pitcher's pH.

In other words, if Mt. Everest fell down, K2 could be the world's highest peak. Don't hold your breath.

Here's another about the Phillies: "Raul Ibanez agreed to a $31.5 million, three-year contract to replace Pat Burrel in left field, making Philadelphia's already dangerous lineup even deeper. Ibanez is one of five outfielders to drive in at least 100 runs in each of the past three seasons."

By relying on the wrong metric, the AP has determined that bronze is more valuable than silver. Raul Ibanez has an .845 OPS over the last three years, Pat Burrel, .889. Raul Ibanez is 37, with an expiration date of about 39. Pat Burrel is 33. The Phillies got worse, not better, by signing Ibanez, and they paid a premium to do so. Burrel inked a two-year deal worth $2 million-a-year less.

Finally, there's this bit of chuckle inducement: "Houston got a boost in spring training when 13-time Gold Glove catcher Ivan Rodriguez agreed to a $1.5 million contract." I'm splitting hairs here, because Pudge is undoubtedly better than the black hole that was sucking matter into the backstop position before him. But the 'Stros are so lacking in talent after Berkman, Lee and Oswalt it's hard to see how the wretched refuse of Ivan Rodriguez's career, not to mention his AARP membership, can possibly help this sorry ship sail. More than a catcher, the Astros need an overhaul.