Does Mike Trout Have a Chance at MVP?

It's scary, really. Mike Trout has spent 40-something games this year in civilian clothes with a torn ligament in his thumb. And he still might be the most valuable player in the league. 

In all of baseball, actually.

Per game played, Trout is out-performing the amazing Mike Trout. Consider the baseline for that statement. In his first five seasons he has been the best player in the league each season. (The writers have seen fit to bestow upon him the MVP just twice, but he's finished second three times.)

Yet this year, at the ripe old age of 25, he's surpassed even that level of accomplishment.

Trout leads baseball in on base percentage, the measure of how few outs he makes.

He leads baseball in slugging percentage, a measure of power. 

Obviously, he leads in OPS, the measure of all-around hitting prowess. He's hitting 91% better than the average batter. Not including pitchers. 

Trout has also stolen 21 of 25 bases and plays stellar defense in the most demanding outfield position. 

Trout is, by far, the game's best player. 

That is, among the greatest ballplayers on the planet, a collection of hitting and fielding savants whose talents are nearly unfathomable, Trout stands head and shoulders above the most elite of that group. He has been worth six wins above a replacement player in just 102 games. That's a rate of more than nine wins for the season.

That's the issue, though. Even if Trout plays in the Angels' remaining 14 games, he will have missed nearly two months of play. During that time, he contributed as much on the field as you have.

Jose Altuve has missed four games. During the other 42 that Trout was hurt, Altuve was Altuving. 

Altuve is no Trout because no one is. He's merely leading the league in batting, getting on base at a 40% clip and ripping 38 doubles and 23 homers. He's also swiped 31 of 37 bases and earned high marks for keystone defense. 

He's basically Trout light. Or short.

Altuve's performance has been worth seven wins above replacement to the Astros. That's far short of Trout's value per game, but nearly a full win more of raw value over the course of the season. 

We're talking about the Most Valuable Player award. It's Altuve's to lose and there isn't much time left for him to lose it. (I should mention here that Andrelton Simmons is close to Altuve in WAR, but much of that is defensive WAR, which we trust much less. Aaron Judge is a few non-significant ticks ahead of Trout also. Neither will out-poll Altuve.)

So Mike Trout will likely once again fail to win the MVP. At least he's got this: he's now the most valuable player in Angels' team history -- after six seasons. 

And early next season he'll pass David Ortiz's career mark. Just start carving that bust now.

Are the Yankees This Year's 2015 Royals?

Remember the World Champion Royals from 2015? They returned from a surprise appearance as the Wild Card in the 2014 World Series, 90 feet from being tied in Game Seven, to rout the Mets (remember them?) for the title in five games.

The Royals were an unconventional team, particularly for these times. They rode mediocre starting pitching and an offense built on low strikeout totals and speed, great outfield defense and lights-out relief to 95 regular season wins and the crown.

This year's Royals might be the Yankees.

They aren't an exact analog. NY's offense is all pop, not speed, with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Todd Frazier leading the power barrage.

Their defense isn't Royalsesque, though Baseball Prospectus rates them fourth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

And their starters are far more accomplished. KC hadn't anyone you would call an ace. The Yankees developed Luis Severino into one of the game's best hurlers; they acquired Sonny Gray as their Game 2 starter and CC Sabathia has enjoyed something of a Renaissance this year.

The Pen is Mighter
What really ties New York to the 2015 champs is that pen. Though Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances have had their struggles this season, they're still lighting up the Jugs guns and setting down the batters. Along with Chasen Shreve and Chad Green, the Yankees trot out a quintet of relievers who have fanned 307 batters in 203 innings.

But wait, there's more!

This is a franchise that scooped up David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle at the waiver deadline. The duo has combined to whiff 63 batters in 49 frames for New York, allowing a 1.84 ERA.

That's right, the Bombers have six closer-level firemen, each of them firing beebees.

They could conceivably bail out a starter after three innings without any of them tiring his arm. That is a huge strategic advantage in the playoffs, where the bullpen's value is multiplied.

The Royals showed baseball what an unprecedented triple-headed monster could do out of the pen. The Yankees have now doubled that. 

Is this a brilliant strategic move or have they taken the Royals to their illogical extreme. Stay tuned.

Rhys Hoskins and the Power of Recency Bias

Quick, which is more impressive:

The Phillies' rookie Rhys Hoskins socking 18 homers faster than anyone in baseball history.

Or

Giancarlo Stanton threatening the 60 home run mark, which only two players have met unsupported by chemical enhancement?

This question was actually raised on an ESPN broadcast. 

Please.

What Rhys Hoskins is doing is interesting. It's impressive. It's unprecedented (obviously). But if he goes a week without a homer it will cease to be any of those things. 

And if he returns to Earth, or even to the average slugger's planet, it will fade into a moment in time, like Eric Thames' early season run. 

Flashes of greatness are pretty common. Do you remember:

• Shane Spencer
• Mark Fidrych
• Bob Hamlin
• Hurricane Bob Hazle
• Joe Cowley
• Joe Charbonneau
• Bobo Holloman
• Chris Shelton
• ...takes a deep breath...
• and many many more?

Each of them had their Rhys Hoskins moment.

Sustained greatness is sweeter by far. Giancarlo Stanton is a world class slugger. He has proven that over the years. This season is the culmination of that. Or maybe it isn't. Maybe there is even more of this to come.

In any case, a full season of greatness outweighs a flash in the pan -- even one of epic proportions.

And a career of greatness, well, that is truly remarkable.

What the Hell Happened to the Dodgers?

'Tis a puzzlement: how does a 91-36 team lose 11 in a row and 15 of 16 games?

No 90-win team had ever lost that many.

No team had ever lost 15 of 16 in the same year they had won 15 of 16.

The 11-game losing streak is the worst in baseball this season -- and it was "accomplished" by the best team.

Wha-what?

After 127 games, the Dodgers were on a record-tying 116-win pace. They held a 12-game lead over...everyone. Their entire starting lineup was above average at the plate. Their backup catcher was hitting .300 with power. They employed the best starting pitcher and the best reliever in baseball. Their fourth starter was 11-4, 3.77.

Then, good God. They became the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. Their hitting was not just the worst in baseball during those two-plus weeks; it was about half as good as the average team offense. 

Every starter but Justin Turner became a below average hitter. Neither Clayton Kershaw not Yu Darvish could get through the fifth inning of a start. The bullpen gakked up close games. 

The entire team fell off the cliff together.

Baseball is unpredictable. That is part of its allure. MVP-level players can suddenly lose their mojo. But for 25 teammates at once to suddenly slump, that's unprecedented. 

After 400,000 games of Major League Baseball, it's never happened before.

So which Dodgers are the 2017 Dodgers? Are they the 91-36 team or the 1-15 team? Or are they the 93-52 team that represents their record as of this writing?

Bill Parcels said you are what your record says you are. That's probably right for L.A. this season. 

I Have a Theory... 
that explains how a historically great team could be historically terrible for an extended period.

Here goes:

They've assembled an awesome roster in L.A. this year. Talented players all producing career-type seasons, particularly on offense. Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Austin Barnes even Justin Turner had never before done quite this. The entire roster was playing over its head.

The game always wins in the end. A player can only take from Baseball for so long before he has to pay the tab. Payback came to each Dodger player at the same time. The whole team outperformed its talent for 127 games and then fell to earth together.

On other teams, players heat up and slump on their own schedules. The team record reflects that. They get to their win total in fits and starts. Not the Dodgers.

What does that mean for tomorrow? It means nothing. They're still a great team. They won't lose 15 of 16. They probably won't win at their previous .716 clip either. Some guys will cook again. Others will remain mired. Still others will bounce halfway back.

What does it mean for the playoffs? Even less. There's no relationship between how well a team plays in September and how well they play in October. 

So let's just enjoy seeing something that has never happened before in 131 years of Major League Baseball.

There's No Crying in Baseball!

Congratulations to Matt Chapman, Juan Graterol and CC Sabathia,for sharing this week's Jimmy Duggan Award. Each of them gets a certified MLB hankie to wipe his eyes and blow his nose, which is clearly out of joint.

Sabathia earns his piece of this prestigious prize for whining about how the Red Sox' Eduardo Nunez successfully bunted on him. 

As you might be aware, Sabathia is a fat tub of goo who is disadvantaged in his ability to run, bend over and stand straight, all of which is necessary in the fielding of bunts. Kinda makes you wonder why teams don't just lay down one bunt after another on him.

Graterol deserves the honor for boo-hooing about Oakland batters peaking at his signs from the catcher's box. 

Give Graterol credit: his .434 OPS suggests this might constitute the peak of his fame. If this is the best Anaheim can produce at the backstop position, then they might be well-served reaching high dudgeon about sign stealing since they can't bank on remaining in the Wild Card race.

Chapman might have a greater claim than Graterol to the award. He took strong exception to the Angels' catcher glaring at him. 

"It's not a very comfortable feeling having the catcher stare at you when you're digging into the box," he complained. 

Heaven forbid the opposition make you uncomfortable! Next thing you know, they'll throw pitches that curve!

Since when did Major League Baseball start playing its games in the obstetrics unit? Waaa!

Zigging When Everyone Else Zags

The story of the 2017 MLB season is the launch angle. Batters have discovered that swinging hard, and upwards, yields a few more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.

And so we have record numbers of both.

The result? Forty MLB batters sport SLG percentages of .500 or better, double the number two years ago. Nineteen sluggers blasted 30+ homers in 2015. We've got 35 this year with 28 or more and three weeks left in the season.

Twenty-plus home run hitters this season include such luminaries as:

Javier Baez,
Nick Castellanos,
Didi Gregorious (pictured left),
Marwin Gonzalez,
Scooter Gennett,
Brett Gardner,
Tim Beckham,
Ryon Healy,
Francisco Lindor
Yonder Alonso,
Travis Shaw.
Not to mention a host of rookies.


The 30+ club includes Steven Souza and Justin Smoak.

This is a collection of middle infielders, speed merchants, fourth outfielders and guys who never hit 20 homers in their entire Minor League careers. 

And bucking this trend are two veteran sluggers having among the best seasons of their careers.

First. let's take Colorado Rockies' cornerman Mark Reynolds. If ever a player was designed for Denver, it's this big fly wind machine. Reynolds has been a three true outcomes hitter his whole career, hitting 30+ home runs in his full seasons while fanning more than 200 times.

As his batting average dipped into Mendoza territory 2013-2015, Reynolds' batting prowess slipped below average, a bad place for a fielder whose best position is DH. In Denver, it stood to reason that all the fly balling would pay off.

Au contraire, mon ami.  With the Rockies, Reynolds has reduced his flyball tendencies by 20% and hit 11% more ground balls, just as the league has switched tactics. The result: he has goosed his batting average by 60 points while adding back a few walks.

Make no mistake, Mark Reynolds is still a slugger. His slammed his 29th today, a grand slam that kept the Rockies three games ahead in the NL Wild Card race. He's just less of an all-or-nothing hitter.

Vottomatic
Joey Votto never had to worry about all that. One of the game's most intellectual and effective hitters, Votto has five times led the NL in OBP, with a .427 lifetime mark. Votto possesses Hall of Fame-caliber power, average and plate discipline, but evidently decided this year that swinging too hard was robbing him of results. His OPS sank all the way down to .985 last season.

So in 2017, Votto has cut down on his swing, particularly with two strikes. It's bizarre to watch a 6'2", 220-pound slugger grip the bat mid-tape, particularly in this all-or-nothing era, but the results speak for themselves: he's reduced his strikeout rate nearly in half.  Better yet, it doesn't appear Joey is any less Vottomatic, as his 34 homers attest.

Going against the grain has probably saved Mark Reynolds' starting job and kept Joey Votto in the MVP discussion. It will be interesting to see how many batters take a page from either of their books next year.