House of Horrors

Dickie from Clifton Park, NY writes in about Mark Reynolds, the Diamondback third-sacker who has clouted seven home runs and whiffed 38 times in just 98 at-bats this season, a continuation of his rookie year performance.

Can a guy like this have any value if he has middling speed and an adequate glove? The answer is yes, but there's incredibly little room for error.

The good news for Reynolds is that as long as he keeps clubbing the ball -- on those occasions when his bat actually meets it -- his hits far outweigh his misses. Research shows that a strikeout is only infinitesimally more harmful than other kinds of outs, on average, but home runs are -- hold onto your seats now -- a really swell thing.

If Reynolds keeps up the current pace, he'll account for 42 home runs and 228 strikeouts in 588 at bats. His 32 doubles and 78 walks will not be anything to sneeze at either. At that rate, his stick will be worth about four wins to his team over a replacement level player. That's not MVP territory, but a team full of clones would win the pennant handily.

Here's why Reynolds can't keep it up. When you strike out 38% of the time, you only have 62% of your at bats available for positive achievement. (I've ignored walks, which deserve better, but I'm simplifying things for those of you who think presidential races ought to be about lapel pins.) To finish the season with even a mediocre .250 batting average, Reynolds needs to hit.408 when he makes contact. Since the average batter hits between .300 and .330 on balls in play, that's a pretty unsustainable rate over a season.

Moreover, to maintain his current home run clip, he would have to blast three out of every 10 of his hits into the bleachers. That's off the charts.

Imagine instead, that Reynolds is more like his baseball brethren and hits .350 when he makes contact and only two of every 10 of his hits find the cheap seats. Then he's a .214 hitter with 25 home runs. That kind of performance will get him traded to the Pirates who will sign him to a multi-year deal.

Guys like Reynolds are amusement park rides -- fun to watch because anything can happen. But unless he lightens up on the wind current creation, his whirlygig will be spinning in Tuscon before the year is out.