Round Two of our foray into the off-season navel-gazing we're compelled to do unless we want to watch the Beef O'Brady Bowl showdown featuring East Cackalacky and Northern Midwest Rustbelt State Tech. Or read a book:
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
28 December 2013
26 December 2013
Questions To Ask Ourselves
With a flurry of trades and signings now in our wake, a couple of questions should be occurring to us as we contemplate which teams have improved and which are reeling.
Question: What do the Yankees know about Robinson Cano?
Explanation: The Bombers declined to pay Hall of Fame prospect Robby Cano $24 million for 10 years, but they shelled out $22 million for seven years of oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, who has produced OPS above league average twice since he began playing regularly in 2008.
The $97 million difference is nothing to sneeze at, even if you have the Yankees' immunity system. But these players are not equivalents. Cano's value to NY since '08 is roughly double Ellsbury's (36 wins against replacement versus 18), and though Cano is a year older and plays a less demanding defensive position, previous history suggests he will last at second base longer than Ellsbury will stay in center.
So why did the Yankees let Cano walk? Incumbent teams know more about their free agents than anyone else does. They know if he's a jerk in the clubhouse, if he's lazy or stupid or annoying, if he's distracted by a woman or if he'd be lost without his ailing mother. They know what nagging injuries he's been papering over and whether he's losing his mojo in the weight room.
When the home team waves off its own player it should give the signing team pause. So what do the Yankees know?
Question: What do the Red Sox know about Jacoby Ellsbury?
Explanation: Already sporting a natural center fielder (Curtis Granderson, a free agent himself) and speedsters in the outfield corners (Brett Gardner and Ichiro) the Yanks put $153 million and seven years on the table for Ellsbury, at least three years and $93 million more than they could have spent to keep the Grandy Man. (The Mets pledged $60 million over four years to Granderson.)
By letting Ellsbury go, Boston's already precarious outfield now features Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and a big question mark currently causing New Englanders to cringe at the answer "Jonny Gomes." Why would a championship-caliber team allow their outfield anchor to walk when the alternative is a giant hole?
It's not like the Red Sox went on a spending spree elsewhere. They forked over $8.25 million to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia with reliable A.J. Pierzynski and laid out $4.75 for reliever Edward Mujica, raising their 2013 payroll by roughly nothing. (Actually, Baseball-Reference.com projects the Sox' payroll will decline $13 million, an amazing result following a World Series parade.) So what do the Red Sox know?
Question: What does Philadelphia management know....period?
Explanation: Oh man is it going to hurt like a Mighty Mighty Bosstones concert in Philly this coming season. Like a hobo in a Brooks Brothers suit, the Phils will sport the second most expensive NL roster while battling Miami for relegation to Double-A. For $159 million, here's some of what the City of Brotherly Love gets:
Jimmy Rollins, 35 (.2 WAR in 2013) $11 million
Carlos Ruiz, 35 (1.7 WAR) $8.5 million
Chase Utley, 35 (3.5 WAR) $15 million
Jonathan Papelbon, 33 (1.5 WAR) $13 million
Mike Adams, 35 (.3 WAR) $7 million
and of course, Ryan Howard, 34 (.6 WAR) $25 million
That's $80 million for an eight-game edge on the bottom-feeding Astros. GM Ruben Amaro can expect a Valentine's Day card from (Washington GM) Mike Rizzo.
Question: What do the Kansas City Royals think they are?
Explanation: When they traded away the future (Wil Myers) for James Shields, they didn't realize they were relinquishing the present as well. They have Big Game James under contract for one more season following a Shields-infused 86-win campaign that had them in the Wild Card mix until the very end. That gives KC 2014 to make a real run at contention in the hopes that Cleveland was a fluke or Detroit stumbles without its Prince. (Better hope for the fluke...)
So what have the Royals done to prepare? They filled a gaping hole at second by signing Omar Infante to a four-year deal. He replaces replacement-level Chris Getz, adding two-three wins at the keystone. They flipped a below-replacement relief pitcher named Will Smith in the pursuit of happyness with rightfielder Norichika Aoki -- another two-three wins. And they inked lefty starter Jason Vargas -- another two wins -- to a four-year deal that displaces one of the Royals legion of fifth starters. While they lost a win or so by trading right-field defensive specialist David Lough, they strengthened third base by acquiring right-swinging Danny Valencia, who will platoon with southpaw-challenged Mike Moustakis.
That's a string of small but significant under-the-radar moves, but the Royals still lack power (Alex Gordon's 20 dingers paced the club) and starting pitching behind Shields (they'll not get 24 wins again out of Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie). If they have visions of playoff plums dancing in their heads they need to swing at least one more deal. Otherwise they're stuck in the middle lane, unable to turn right into rebuilding or left into contention.
Question: Are the Pirates standing pat because they think they're good enough to repeat or because they realize 2014 won't be their year?
Explanation: If Pittsburgh GM Neil Huntington is honest with himself, he realizes that the patron saint of lost causes had to be smiling down on PNC Park for the Bucs' surprise party to come off so swimmingly in 2013. In 2014, Jeff Locke's not slipping a 3.52 ERA into their drink. Mark Melancon's not doing the 1.39 ERA hustle or the 8.75 K/BB tango, at least not for 71innings. Justin Morneau won't be back for a .370 OBP surprise. Andrew McCutchen can't possibly top last year's party favors. And the team won't outplay their fundamentals by six wins. So if they want to avoid starting a new streak, he'll need to start inviting some different folks to his 2014 party.
Instead, the Pirates made 1B Garret Jones (.289 OBP) walk the plank, watched Morneau jump ship, brought back on board SS Clint Barmes's invisible bat (.211/.249/.309) and SP Charlie Morton's inconsistent quality (two years below-3.84 ERA, two years above-6.14 ERA), and welcomed hurler Edinson Volquez (4.94 ERA since 2009) to serve as fifth mate. That's a whole lot of Nobody McNobodywicz, and it leaves Pittsburgh, at 85 wins of quality, steering an even more middle course than Kansas City.
The Buccos may say "Aaaargh" to big name free agents, but they need to bid "Ahoy" to some improvements or it's going to look ugly as an eye-patch. The roster cries out for a league-average starter and an outfield bat; a lefty platoon-mate for Gaby Sanchez (200 points worse OPS against righties) would even be parrot-on-the-shoulder. Absent that, don't say you weren't warned.
Question: What do the Yankees know about Robinson Cano?
Explanation: The Bombers declined to pay Hall of Fame prospect Robby Cano $24 million for 10 years, but they shelled out $22 million for seven years of oft-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, who has produced OPS above league average twice since he began playing regularly in 2008.
The $97 million difference is nothing to sneeze at, even if you have the Yankees' immunity system. But these players are not equivalents. Cano's value to NY since '08 is roughly double Ellsbury's (36 wins against replacement versus 18), and though Cano is a year older and plays a less demanding defensive position, previous history suggests he will last at second base longer than Ellsbury will stay in center.
So why did the Yankees let Cano walk? Incumbent teams know more about their free agents than anyone else does. They know if he's a jerk in the clubhouse, if he's lazy or stupid or annoying, if he's distracted by a woman or if he'd be lost without his ailing mother. They know what nagging injuries he's been papering over and whether he's losing his mojo in the weight room.
When the home team waves off its own player it should give the signing team pause. So what do the Yankees know?
Question: What do the Red Sox know about Jacoby Ellsbury?
Explanation: Already sporting a natural center fielder (Curtis Granderson, a free agent himself) and speedsters in the outfield corners (Brett Gardner and Ichiro) the Yanks put $153 million and seven years on the table for Ellsbury, at least three years and $93 million more than they could have spent to keep the Grandy Man. (The Mets pledged $60 million over four years to Granderson.)
By letting Ellsbury go, Boston's already precarious outfield now features Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and a big question mark currently causing New Englanders to cringe at the answer "Jonny Gomes." Why would a championship-caliber team allow their outfield anchor to walk when the alternative is a giant hole?
It's not like the Red Sox went on a spending spree elsewhere. They forked over $8.25 million to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia with reliable A.J. Pierzynski and laid out $4.75 for reliever Edward Mujica, raising their 2013 payroll by roughly nothing. (Actually, Baseball-Reference.com projects the Sox' payroll will decline $13 million, an amazing result following a World Series parade.) So what do the Red Sox know?
Question: What does Philadelphia management know....period?
Explanation: Oh man is it going to hurt like a Mighty Mighty Bosstones concert in Philly this coming season. Like a hobo in a Brooks Brothers suit, the Phils will sport the second most expensive NL roster while battling Miami for relegation to Double-A. For $159 million, here's some of what the City of Brotherly Love gets:
Jimmy Rollins, 35 (.2 WAR in 2013) $11 million
Carlos Ruiz, 35 (1.7 WAR) $8.5 million
Chase Utley, 35 (3.5 WAR) $15 million
Jonathan Papelbon, 33 (1.5 WAR) $13 million
Mike Adams, 35 (.3 WAR) $7 million
and of course, Ryan Howard, 34 (.6 WAR) $25 million
That's $80 million for an eight-game edge on the bottom-feeding Astros. GM Ruben Amaro can expect a Valentine's Day card from (Washington GM) Mike Rizzo.
Question: What do the Kansas City Royals think they are?
Explanation: When they traded away the future (Wil Myers) for James Shields, they didn't realize they were relinquishing the present as well. They have Big Game James under contract for one more season following a Shields-infused 86-win campaign that had them in the Wild Card mix until the very end. That gives KC 2014 to make a real run at contention in the hopes that Cleveland was a fluke or Detroit stumbles without its Prince. (Better hope for the fluke...)
So what have the Royals done to prepare? They filled a gaping hole at second by signing Omar Infante to a four-year deal. He replaces replacement-level Chris Getz, adding two-three wins at the keystone. They flipped a below-replacement relief pitcher named Will Smith in the pursuit of happyness with rightfielder Norichika Aoki -- another two-three wins. And they inked lefty starter Jason Vargas -- another two wins -- to a four-year deal that displaces one of the Royals legion of fifth starters. While they lost a win or so by trading right-field defensive specialist David Lough, they strengthened third base by acquiring right-swinging Danny Valencia, who will platoon with southpaw-challenged Mike Moustakis.
That's a string of small but significant under-the-radar moves, but the Royals still lack power (Alex Gordon's 20 dingers paced the club) and starting pitching behind Shields (they'll not get 24 wins again out of Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie). If they have visions of playoff plums dancing in their heads they need to swing at least one more deal. Otherwise they're stuck in the middle lane, unable to turn right into rebuilding or left into contention.
Question: Are the Pirates standing pat because they think they're good enough to repeat or because they realize 2014 won't be their year?
Explanation: If Pittsburgh GM Neil Huntington is honest with himself, he realizes that the patron saint of lost causes had to be smiling down on PNC Park for the Bucs' surprise party to come off so swimmingly in 2013. In 2014, Jeff Locke's not slipping a 3.52 ERA into their drink. Mark Melancon's not doing the 1.39 ERA hustle or the 8.75 K/BB tango, at least not for 71innings. Justin Morneau won't be back for a .370 OBP surprise. Andrew McCutchen can't possibly top last year's party favors. And the team won't outplay their fundamentals by six wins. So if they want to avoid starting a new streak, he'll need to start inviting some different folks to his 2014 party.
Instead, the Pirates made 1B Garret Jones (.289 OBP) walk the plank, watched Morneau jump ship, brought back on board SS Clint Barmes's invisible bat (.211/.249/.309) and SP Charlie Morton's inconsistent quality (two years below-3.84 ERA, two years above-6.14 ERA), and welcomed hurler Edinson Volquez (4.94 ERA since 2009) to serve as fifth mate. That's a whole lot of Nobody McNobodywicz, and it leaves Pittsburgh, at 85 wins of quality, steering an even more middle course than Kansas City.
The Buccos may say "Aaaargh" to big name free agents, but they need to bid "Ahoy" to some improvements or it's going to look ugly as an eye-patch. The roster cries out for a league-average starter and an outfield bat; a lefty platoon-mate for Gaby Sanchez (200 points worse OPS against righties) would even be parrot-on-the-shoulder. Absent that, don't say you weren't warned.
24 December 2013
The Wild Wild (AL) West
Like the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic, it's not clear that after all the dust has settled in the wake of GDP-sized signings and multi-team swaps that anything much has changed in the AL West.
The Texas Rangers, in effect swapped Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder and Shin-soo Choo in order to free up this year's model, Jurickson Profar, to play second base. If nothing else, the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle fit better now. Fielder is an upgrade on Cruz, especially the Cruz who got himself docked for a third of the season. Choo fills Cruz's spot in the outfield and fills the bases in Kinsler's place, while 21-year-old Profar provides the Rangers an opportunity to sport enviable youth in the middle infield alongside 25-year-old Elvis Andrus.
Texas still has the issue of perennial late-season wilting, which might be a function of Dallas heat, but until Fielder eats his way out of stardom the dealing keeps them around the top of the division.
The Seattle Mariners signed the best keystoner in the game and continue to wave American legal tender at free agents in a futile attempt to acquire enough hitting to keep King Felix above .500. As of now, their lock on the cellar (Houston not withstanding) remains uncontested as Cano pushes them five wins closer to mediocrity. If Cano is simply the opening salvo in their free agent push, that seven-year deal might pay off starting in years two or three. Seattle is said to have one of baseball's best farms.
The Los Angeheim Angels will attempt once again to parlay a trio of superstars into something better than third place. They'll need the real Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols to stand up in support of Mike Trout's to-scale imitation of Willie Mays. They have spent the off-season flipping a statuesque corner outfielder (Mark Trumbo) for a pair of promising starting pitchers and swapping center speedster Peter Bourjos for hot cornerman David Friese. That leaves the Halos secure at the corner but one short in the outfield, all of which is window-dressing unless Hamilton and Pujols move away from the kryptonite.
The Houston Astros are also allowed to play in this division as they claw their way back from the Minors. The Spacemen inked one average player (pitcher Scott Feldman) and traded for another (outfielder Dexter Fowler) who will instantly become the team's two stars. Wait 'til three years ago!
Finally there is the Oakland A's, the Soviet Union of this era. They remain a riddle wrapped in an enigma whose best hitter (Josh Donaldson) knocked in 35 runs in his career prior to 2013. Their best pitcher was an overweight 40-year-old (Bartolo Colon) coming off a steroid conviction. Their best player was a center fielder who notched his career year at age 33 (Coco Crisp) in the worst-hitting park he's ever called home. Their 2013 payroll, third lowest in the league, is projected to rise three whopping percent in 2014. Divesting themselves of Colon and their closer (Grant Balfour, 2.56 ERA, 38 saves) and retaining just seven players beyond arbitration helps keep the cost down, though the head-scratcher signing of perpetual puzzle Scott Kazmir (11% worse than average since 2005) to a two-year, $22 million bank breaker offsets some of that.
In any case, the A's will once again project to 83 wins before again leapfrogging Texas for the division title at year's end. Because that's what the Wild Wild AL West does.
The Texas Rangers, in effect swapped Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder and Shin-soo Choo in order to free up this year's model, Jurickson Profar, to play second base. If nothing else, the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle fit better now. Fielder is an upgrade on Cruz, especially the Cruz who got himself docked for a third of the season. Choo fills Cruz's spot in the outfield and fills the bases in Kinsler's place, while 21-year-old Profar provides the Rangers an opportunity to sport enviable youth in the middle infield alongside 25-year-old Elvis Andrus.
Texas still has the issue of perennial late-season wilting, which might be a function of Dallas heat, but until Fielder eats his way out of stardom the dealing keeps them around the top of the division.
The Seattle Mariners signed the best keystoner in the game and continue to wave American legal tender at free agents in a futile attempt to acquire enough hitting to keep King Felix above .500. As of now, their lock on the cellar (Houston not withstanding) remains uncontested as Cano pushes them five wins closer to mediocrity. If Cano is simply the opening salvo in their free agent push, that seven-year deal might pay off starting in years two or three. Seattle is said to have one of baseball's best farms.
The Los Angeheim Angels will attempt once again to parlay a trio of superstars into something better than third place. They'll need the real Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols to stand up in support of Mike Trout's to-scale imitation of Willie Mays. They have spent the off-season flipping a statuesque corner outfielder (Mark Trumbo) for a pair of promising starting pitchers and swapping center speedster Peter Bourjos for hot cornerman David Friese. That leaves the Halos secure at the corner but one short in the outfield, all of which is window-dressing unless Hamilton and Pujols move away from the kryptonite.
The Houston Astros are also allowed to play in this division as they claw their way back from the Minors. The Spacemen inked one average player (pitcher Scott Feldman) and traded for another (outfielder Dexter Fowler) who will instantly become the team's two stars. Wait 'til three years ago!
Finally there is the Oakland A's, the Soviet Union of this era. They remain a riddle wrapped in an enigma whose best hitter (Josh Donaldson) knocked in 35 runs in his career prior to 2013. Their best pitcher was an overweight 40-year-old (Bartolo Colon) coming off a steroid conviction. Their best player was a center fielder who notched his career year at age 33 (Coco Crisp) in the worst-hitting park he's ever called home. Their 2013 payroll, third lowest in the league, is projected to rise three whopping percent in 2014. Divesting themselves of Colon and their closer (Grant Balfour, 2.56 ERA, 38 saves) and retaining just seven players beyond arbitration helps keep the cost down, though the head-scratcher signing of perpetual puzzle Scott Kazmir (11% worse than average since 2005) to a two-year, $22 million bank breaker offsets some of that.
In any case, the A's will once again project to 83 wins before again leapfrogging Texas for the division title at year's end. Because that's what the Wild Wild AL West does.
16 December 2013
A Conspiracy of Willful Amnesia
It was a rainy day in Charleston so I settled in to watch some footballs. With three games left in the NFL's regular season there were several near-elimination contests whose outcomes really mattered. For sure Fox and CBS would show the Dallas-Green Bay showdown whose loser would be in deep playoff purgatory or the Miami-New England contest critical to the Dolphins ' playoff push.
After all, making the post-season tournament is all that matters. As anyone who's followed the NFL even casually knows all too well, any team can hoist the trophy once they qualify for the tournament. Last year, the 10-6 Baltimore Ravens played three games, two on the road, on their way to Super Bowl victory. The year before, the 9-7 NY Giants ran the same gauntlet. In 2010, the 10-6 Green Bay Packers slipped in on a Wild Card and swept three road games en route to the championship. And so on.
In other words, every player, coach, GM, owner, writer, broadcaster and fan knows that seeding is irrelevant. Home field confers as much advantage as the return from injury of a flanker. A first-round bye guarantees passage into the second round -- and nothing more.
So what game did I see? That riveting Seattle-Giants affair, a Seahawk whitewashing that had utterly no relevance in the standings. Seattle had already clinched. New Jersey was already eliminated. Why on Earth would Fox show this desultory affair? It's not like I live in the Pacific Northwest or the teeming metropolis.
Then, adding insult to injury, the announcers on the Seahawks-Giants fiasco mentioned the high drama taking place in Miami. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Dolphins led New England by four points with Tom Brady poised a few yards from the end zone as the final seconds ticked down. And my television continued to show a meaningless 23-0 egg-laying.
You'd never know of my contest's irrelevance from the network description. According to them, Seattle was battling to maintain their home field playoff edge. The Seahawks, they said, were in a dogfight with New Orleans for that coveted one-seed and needed to defeat today's foe.
The next day, a national sports talk show asked its four hyperbolic panelists if Miami gained more than New England lost. This tripe was presented as a matter of opinion, as if New England's playoff seeding were as momentous as Miami's uphill climb into the postseason.
There are only two possibilities here: everyone involved in the game is lying through their teeth or there is a conspiracy of willful amnesia. The constant talk of seeding as if it correlates with playoff success requires that all the analysts, observers and fans squeeze their eyes shut so tight that they momentarily forget that most of these games don't matter.
We see this in sports all the time. The talk about NBA playoff seeding is so totally laughable it goes beyond amnesia to schizophrenia. Fans of the sport are so paralyzed by grief for any drama in the season that they remain stuck in its first stage -- denial. College pigskin fans work themselves into a lather every season fretting about multiple-undefeated-team scenarios that never pan out. And, of course, all sports fans invoke "momentum" as if it's a guarantor of future events rather than a description of the past.
Wake up everyone, so on a rainy day I can watch a game that has some meaning.
After all, making the post-season tournament is all that matters. As anyone who's followed the NFL even casually knows all too well, any team can hoist the trophy once they qualify for the tournament. Last year, the 10-6 Baltimore Ravens played three games, two on the road, on their way to Super Bowl victory. The year before, the 9-7 NY Giants ran the same gauntlet. In 2010, the 10-6 Green Bay Packers slipped in on a Wild Card and swept three road games en route to the championship. And so on.
In other words, every player, coach, GM, owner, writer, broadcaster and fan knows that seeding is irrelevant. Home field confers as much advantage as the return from injury of a flanker. A first-round bye guarantees passage into the second round -- and nothing more.
So what game did I see? That riveting Seattle-Giants affair, a Seahawk whitewashing that had utterly no relevance in the standings. Seattle had already clinched. New Jersey was already eliminated. Why on Earth would Fox show this desultory affair? It's not like I live in the Pacific Northwest or the teeming metropolis.
Then, adding insult to injury, the announcers on the Seahawks-Giants fiasco mentioned the high drama taking place in Miami. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Dolphins led New England by four points with Tom Brady poised a few yards from the end zone as the final seconds ticked down. And my television continued to show a meaningless 23-0 egg-laying.
You'd never know of my contest's irrelevance from the network description. According to them, Seattle was battling to maintain their home field playoff edge. The Seahawks, they said, were in a dogfight with New Orleans for that coveted one-seed and needed to defeat today's foe.
The next day, a national sports talk show asked its four hyperbolic panelists if Miami gained more than New England lost. This tripe was presented as a matter of opinion, as if New England's playoff seeding were as momentous as Miami's uphill climb into the postseason.
There are only two possibilities here: everyone involved in the game is lying through their teeth or there is a conspiracy of willful amnesia. The constant talk of seeding as if it correlates with playoff success requires that all the analysts, observers and fans squeeze their eyes shut so tight that they momentarily forget that most of these games don't matter.
We see this in sports all the time. The talk about NBA playoff seeding is so totally laughable it goes beyond amnesia to schizophrenia. Fans of the sport are so paralyzed by grief for any drama in the season that they remain stuck in its first stage -- denial. College pigskin fans work themselves into a lather every season fretting about multiple-undefeated-team scenarios that never pan out. And, of course, all sports fans invoke "momentum" as if it's a guarantor of future events rather than a description of the past.
Wake up everyone, so on a rainy day I can watch a game that has some meaning.
14 December 2013
Adam Dunn's Nose Runs and His Feet Smell
If you want a bust in Cooperstown, either dominate the game for six or seven years, or compete at a high level for 20. You might call these the Sandy Koufax and Don Sutton methods, respectively.
But this isn't about the Hall of Fame at all. It's about Adam Dunn.
One method of determining with numerical analysis whether a contender is Hall-worthy is to measure his peak value -- the value he added to his team over some arbitrary number of his best years. In his six transcendent seasons, Koufax posted 46.6 wins against replacement. That's all the more astonishing because his total career value is only 53.2 WAR.
That's because the six seasons in which his performance looked like this -- 25-5, 1.88 -- followed six seasons that looked like this -- 11-11, 4.48. His career was a deep valley bordering a high mountain.
Wait til you hear about Adam Dunn.
Sutton, on the other hand, was more like a mesa, a high, flat plain. His peak six seasons only produced 31 wins against replacement for the Dodgers but his career mark of 68.7 outshines Koufax's. Sutton's best season, 1972 (19-9, 2.08), didn't look extraordinarily different from a below average season, say 1982 (13-8, 3.00).
Which brings us, mercifully, to Adam Dunn. The Big Donkey will see himself in Cooperstown only after purchasing admittance and looking in the bathroom mirror. What makes him special is his peak and career value.
Dunn is one of the very few players in baseball history whose peak value is higher than his career value. Dunn's top seven seasons (that's the number chosen for peak value by the respected JAWS system, developed by and named for former Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe) produced 16.5 wins. In his salad days, Dunn's batting average hovered around .250, he walked 100+ times and he socked 38 or more homers eight times. That was enough to overcome the face plant he did in the field.
In his six worst seasons, Dunn has been an albatross, most notably in 2011, when he batted .159 with 11 homers in 496 plate appearances that made women and children weep. He cost the White Sox three wins that year compared to a Triple-A DH/left-fielder.
Adam Dunn is no stranger to nose-run/feet-smell kinds of results. Five times in his career (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012) Dunn has compiled more extra base hits than singles. As of last year, only five players in baseball history with 1000+ plate appearances had more extra base hits than singles for their career, including Dunn. Sadly, he fell of the list in 2013 by banging just 49 of his 115 hits for multiple bases. (Giancarlo Stanton also exited the august group, which means the list is down to three.)
Here's another Escher drawing of Dunn's career: in 2011, Dunn walked more often than he hit safely. (In 2008 he walked exactly as often.) In the last 40 years, that has been accomplished just 23 times (minimum 450 plate appearances), most notably by Barry Bonds, six times between '01 and '07.
Here's one that very possibly stands alone in the annals of the game. In 2009, the giant righty slugged 38 home runs for the Washington Nationals, got on base just under 40% of the time, produced an OPS 44% above league average and added four wins of value at the plate. And produced below-replacement value overall. How hard is that? He stole no bases, needed a triple to advance from first to second, and displayed all the defensive range of a cactus. For his career, Adam Dunn has cost his teams 28 wins in the field, despite DHing the last three years.
We'll not see quite the likes of Adam Dunn again. This is a ballplayer who made the All-Star team one year while batting .204 (yet nonetheless producing an above-average on base percentage). He slammed 206 homers over five years and never finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. He racked up 58 extra base hits in 2002 but only 75 RBI. He's walked, fanned or homered -- in other words did not put the ball in play -- more than half the time in his nearly 8,000 career plate appearances.
Funn with Dunn. Enjoy it while you can.
But this isn't about the Hall of Fame at all. It's about Adam Dunn.
One method of determining with numerical analysis whether a contender is Hall-worthy is to measure his peak value -- the value he added to his team over some arbitrary number of his best years. In his six transcendent seasons, Koufax posted 46.6 wins against replacement. That's all the more astonishing because his total career value is only 53.2 WAR.
That's because the six seasons in which his performance looked like this -- 25-5, 1.88 -- followed six seasons that looked like this -- 11-11, 4.48. His career was a deep valley bordering a high mountain.
Wait til you hear about Adam Dunn.
Sutton, on the other hand, was more like a mesa, a high, flat plain. His peak six seasons only produced 31 wins against replacement for the Dodgers but his career mark of 68.7 outshines Koufax's. Sutton's best season, 1972 (19-9, 2.08), didn't look extraordinarily different from a below average season, say 1982 (13-8, 3.00).
Which brings us, mercifully, to Adam Dunn. The Big Donkey will see himself in Cooperstown only after purchasing admittance and looking in the bathroom mirror. What makes him special is his peak and career value.
Dunn is one of the very few players in baseball history whose peak value is higher than his career value. Dunn's top seven seasons (that's the number chosen for peak value by the respected JAWS system, developed by and named for former Baseball Prospectus writer Jay Jaffe) produced 16.5 wins. In his salad days, Dunn's batting average hovered around .250, he walked 100+ times and he socked 38 or more homers eight times. That was enough to overcome the face plant he did in the field.
In his six worst seasons, Dunn has been an albatross, most notably in 2011, when he batted .159 with 11 homers in 496 plate appearances that made women and children weep. He cost the White Sox three wins that year compared to a Triple-A DH/left-fielder.
Adam Dunn is no stranger to nose-run/feet-smell kinds of results. Five times in his career (2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012) Dunn has compiled more extra base hits than singles. As of last year, only five players in baseball history with 1000+ plate appearances had more extra base hits than singles for their career, including Dunn. Sadly, he fell of the list in 2013 by banging just 49 of his 115 hits for multiple bases. (Giancarlo Stanton also exited the august group, which means the list is down to three.)
Here's another Escher drawing of Dunn's career: in 2011, Dunn walked more often than he hit safely. (In 2008 he walked exactly as often.) In the last 40 years, that has been accomplished just 23 times (minimum 450 plate appearances), most notably by Barry Bonds, six times between '01 and '07.
Here's one that very possibly stands alone in the annals of the game. In 2009, the giant righty slugged 38 home runs for the Washington Nationals, got on base just under 40% of the time, produced an OPS 44% above league average and added four wins of value at the plate. And produced below-replacement value overall. How hard is that? He stole no bases, needed a triple to advance from first to second, and displayed all the defensive range of a cactus. For his career, Adam Dunn has cost his teams 28 wins in the field, despite DHing the last three years.
We'll not see quite the likes of Adam Dunn again. This is a ballplayer who made the All-Star team one year while batting .204 (yet nonetheless producing an above-average on base percentage). He slammed 206 homers over five years and never finished in the top 25 in MVP voting. He racked up 58 extra base hits in 2002 but only 75 RBI. He's walked, fanned or homered -- in other words did not put the ball in play -- more than half the time in his nearly 8,000 career plate appearances.
Funn with Dunn. Enjoy it while you can.
13 December 2013
See, I Told You So
Here in Charleston, SC, we attend to hurricane forecasts as if our lives depend on them -- because they do. About every three years a big gust rattles our cages and about every 50 years a Biblical-style storm levels everything in its path along the coast, much like Albert Pujols' contract.
So when the National Hurricane Center in Boulder, CO pronounces an active hurricane season upcoming, non-perishables fly out of supermarkets and plywood sales spike. What folks in these parts don't seem to notice is how utterly, thoroughly, completely and consistently their forecasts are wildly off the mark. Even mid-season, when the Hurricane Center updates its prediction, it nonetheless manages to swing and miss like Adam Dunn facing R.A. Dickey. People here would be well-advised to act upon the opposite of the forecast.
So much for experts. The same could be said about the people who cover, follow and even sometimes work in baseball: they're so often misinformed that any third-rate blogger from a minor league city can feast on the carcass of their predictions. As Father Time rolls out the tarp on 2013 it's a good time to look back and see how often a little Braindrizzling out-guessed the experts.
Let's start with last December, when the Mariners signed Jason Bay and Philadelphia inked Michael Young to contracts. We offered a big raspberry to both teams for aging without grace. Here's the Bay post, which suggested his signing was redundant on a team that already couldn't hit. Sure enough, in a platoon designed to hide his deficiencies, Bay batted .204.
Young hit much better, as was expected, but he was still 36. His third base defense was so putrid he graded out below replacement. The post suggested the creaky Phils would finish fourth in the East. They obliged.
The same month, Braindrizzling exploited its last opportunity to pile on Jeff Francoeur, scratching the metaphorical head about the Royals' continued employment of potential that never was. Francoeur posted a .238 on base percentage en route to employment in another field.
A week before Christmas, a bewildering trade between Tampa and Kansas City sent #2 starter James Shields and swingman Wade Davis to the Royals for a grab bag of Minor Leaguers including phenom Wil Myers. We called it the "Gift of the Magi" trade because the developing team sacrificed the future for a present that didn't exist while the contenders relinquished a current asset for a future star right when the division seemed theirs for the taking. That's not quite how it worked out.
Shields was his usual brilliant self (13-9, 3.15 and leading the league in innings pitched) and helped KC come closer than ever to contention. (Davis, not so much.) Still, KC finished third in the division, six games out of the Wild Card. And now Shields gets expensive in '14 in his last season before free agency.
The trade did work out for the Rays though. Myers was all that and a box of Oreos, earning Rookie of the Year honors with his .293/.354/.478 body of work. His mid-season promotion coincided with Tampa Bay's lurch into the Wild Card. Myers helped solidify a lower-middle tier offense while he pitching starts were divided nearly equally among six quality hurlers even without Big Game James. The lesson: if Rays GM Andrew Friedman does something mystifying, assume he's up to something.
Seattle GM Jack Zdurencik gets no such benefits of the doubt. He signed 41-year-old Raul Ibanez to complement Jason Bay in an inconceivable outfield platoon and lit up this blog post, which called the combination a punch line. Ibanez defied the hourglass for awhile, hitting .267 with 24 home runs in the first half while butchering left field. With Seattle hopelessly out of contention, Zdurencik failed to cash in his new asset for some farm help and watched Ibanez turn into a pumpkin (.203, five homers) in the second half.
On New Year's Eve, Braindrizzling picked a fight with the venerable Bill James, godfather of Sabermetrics. Bill had it coming for projecting Josh Hamilton would play 147 games and hit .289/.356/.540 with 35 home runs. We called that "exceedingly generous" which was an exceedingly generous description. Hamilton managed to stay upright for 151 games, but that wasn't necessarily good news as he slumped to .250/.307/.432 and 21 homers.
Outfoxing Bill James is just dumb luck; outsmarting the Royals, Mariners and Phillies, well, that's like shooting fish in a barrel. We'll examine the success rate of in-season prognostications in a subsequent post.
So when the National Hurricane Center in Boulder, CO pronounces an active hurricane season upcoming, non-perishables fly out of supermarkets and plywood sales spike. What folks in these parts don't seem to notice is how utterly, thoroughly, completely and consistently their forecasts are wildly off the mark. Even mid-season, when the Hurricane Center updates its prediction, it nonetheless manages to swing and miss like Adam Dunn facing R.A. Dickey. People here would be well-advised to act upon the opposite of the forecast.
So much for experts. The same could be said about the people who cover, follow and even sometimes work in baseball: they're so often misinformed that any third-rate blogger from a minor league city can feast on the carcass of their predictions. As Father Time rolls out the tarp on 2013 it's a good time to look back and see how often a little Braindrizzling out-guessed the experts.
Let's start with last December, when the Mariners signed Jason Bay and Philadelphia inked Michael Young to contracts. We offered a big raspberry to both teams for aging without grace. Here's the Bay post, which suggested his signing was redundant on a team that already couldn't hit. Sure enough, in a platoon designed to hide his deficiencies, Bay batted .204.
Young hit much better, as was expected, but he was still 36. His third base defense was so putrid he graded out below replacement. The post suggested the creaky Phils would finish fourth in the East. They obliged.
The same month, Braindrizzling exploited its last opportunity to pile on Jeff Francoeur, scratching the metaphorical head about the Royals' continued employment of potential that never was. Francoeur posted a .238 on base percentage en route to employment in another field.
A week before Christmas, a bewildering trade between Tampa and Kansas City sent #2 starter James Shields and swingman Wade Davis to the Royals for a grab bag of Minor Leaguers including phenom Wil Myers. We called it the "Gift of the Magi" trade because the developing team sacrificed the future for a present that didn't exist while the contenders relinquished a current asset for a future star right when the division seemed theirs for the taking. That's not quite how it worked out.
Shields was his usual brilliant self (13-9, 3.15 and leading the league in innings pitched) and helped KC come closer than ever to contention. (Davis, not so much.) Still, KC finished third in the division, six games out of the Wild Card. And now Shields gets expensive in '14 in his last season before free agency.
The trade did work out for the Rays though. Myers was all that and a box of Oreos, earning Rookie of the Year honors with his .293/.354/.478 body of work. His mid-season promotion coincided with Tampa Bay's lurch into the Wild Card. Myers helped solidify a lower-middle tier offense while he pitching starts were divided nearly equally among six quality hurlers even without Big Game James. The lesson: if Rays GM Andrew Friedman does something mystifying, assume he's up to something.
Seattle GM Jack Zdurencik gets no such benefits of the doubt. He signed 41-year-old Raul Ibanez to complement Jason Bay in an inconceivable outfield platoon and lit up this blog post, which called the combination a punch line. Ibanez defied the hourglass for awhile, hitting .267 with 24 home runs in the first half while butchering left field. With Seattle hopelessly out of contention, Zdurencik failed to cash in his new asset for some farm help and watched Ibanez turn into a pumpkin (.203, five homers) in the second half.
On New Year's Eve, Braindrizzling picked a fight with the venerable Bill James, godfather of Sabermetrics. Bill had it coming for projecting Josh Hamilton would play 147 games and hit .289/.356/.540 with 35 home runs. We called that "exceedingly generous" which was an exceedingly generous description. Hamilton managed to stay upright for 151 games, but that wasn't necessarily good news as he slumped to .250/.307/.432 and 21 homers.
Outfoxing Bill James is just dumb luck; outsmarting the Royals, Mariners and Phillies, well, that's like shooting fish in a barrel. We'll examine the success rate of in-season prognostications in a subsequent post.
12 December 2013
The Curious Case of Andruw Jones
What do you think of these two players and their annual performance:
Player A - .267/.345/.505, 31 HR, 28 D, 93 RBI, 9 Gold Gloves, 5.3 WAR, all for one team
Player B - .214/.314/.420, 15 HR, 13 D, 44 RBI 1 Gold Glove, 0.8 WAR for five different teams
The first guy is a borderline Hall of Famer. The second guy is a scrub.
You're never alone with a schizophrenic. Both players are Andruw Jones.
The first Andruw Jones is under 30. Jones entered the Majors with the Braves in 1996 at the age of 19. By 21 he hitting .271, pounding 31 homers and establishing himself as the premier defensive centerfielder in the game. At age 28 he slammed 51 bombs and finished second in the MVP balloting.
Then, in 2007, a terrible thing happened to the Curacao Kid. He turned 30. And with his 20s went his skills. Down like a sack of potatoes.
He slumped to .222/.311/.413 and 26 jacks in his final year in Atlanta. The Dodgers took a two-year, $36 million flyer on him and he rewarded them by batting .158 with three homers in 238 plate appearances. He even lost his defensive chops. L.A. released him and ate $18 million in salary.
The following four years he bounced from Texas to the White Sox to the Yankees, never again an asset in the field, never batting .250 even in a platoon. He continued to hit for power and even improved his walk rate, but by age 35 he was kaput as a Major Leaguer. This past season he took his waning skills to Japan where he delivered a solid performance that's nonetheless unlikely to resuscitate his MLB career.
What's particularly curious is that an examination of Jones in 2006 would have projected a few more peak-variety seasons, a long, slow decline and a Hall of Fame case. Great glove men in premium positions equipped with generous foot speed tend to age supremely well. They tend to be in great shape to begin with, as opposed to, say, lumbering first basemen.They can remain defensive assets by moving to easier positions -- corner outfield in Andruw's case. Their running ability ebbs more gradually than their swing.
None of that protected Andruw Jones. Some have attributed his cliff dive to added weight, others to injuries. Four franchises had the opportunity to diagnose and repair his ballplaying abilities and none unlocked the secret. Jones long ago cashed in his Cooperstown card. His notable membership now will be in the Hall of Head Scratchers.
Player A - .267/.345/.505, 31 HR, 28 D, 93 RBI, 9 Gold Gloves, 5.3 WAR, all for one team
Player B - .214/.314/.420, 15 HR, 13 D, 44 RBI 1 Gold Glove, 0.8 WAR for five different teams
The first guy is a borderline Hall of Famer. The second guy is a scrub.
You're never alone with a schizophrenic. Both players are Andruw Jones.
The first Andruw Jones is under 30. Jones entered the Majors with the Braves in 1996 at the age of 19. By 21 he hitting .271, pounding 31 homers and establishing himself as the premier defensive centerfielder in the game. At age 28 he slammed 51 bombs and finished second in the MVP balloting.
Then, in 2007, a terrible thing happened to the Curacao Kid. He turned 30. And with his 20s went his skills. Down like a sack of potatoes.
He slumped to .222/.311/.413 and 26 jacks in his final year in Atlanta. The Dodgers took a two-year, $36 million flyer on him and he rewarded them by batting .158 with three homers in 238 plate appearances. He even lost his defensive chops. L.A. released him and ate $18 million in salary.
The following four years he bounced from Texas to the White Sox to the Yankees, never again an asset in the field, never batting .250 even in a platoon. He continued to hit for power and even improved his walk rate, but by age 35 he was kaput as a Major Leaguer. This past season he took his waning skills to Japan where he delivered a solid performance that's nonetheless unlikely to resuscitate his MLB career.
What's particularly curious is that an examination of Jones in 2006 would have projected a few more peak-variety seasons, a long, slow decline and a Hall of Fame case. Great glove men in premium positions equipped with generous foot speed tend to age supremely well. They tend to be in great shape to begin with, as opposed to, say, lumbering first basemen.They can remain defensive assets by moving to easier positions -- corner outfield in Andruw's case. Their running ability ebbs more gradually than their swing.
None of that protected Andruw Jones. Some have attributed his cliff dive to added weight, others to injuries. Four franchises had the opportunity to diagnose and repair his ballplaying abilities and none unlocked the secret. Jones long ago cashed in his Cooperstown card. His notable membership now will be in the Hall of Head Scratchers.
11 December 2013
Roy Hallafame?
By hanging up his cleats at the age of 36, Roy Halladay has set in motion a good, old-fashioned brouhaha over his Cooperstown credentials.
Halladay is credited with winning just 203 games, rarely enough to secure a bust in the august Hall. Bill James established the inadequacy of measuring pitcher wins in 1979, when Jimmy Carter was president, but word hasn't yet reached everyone just 34 years later. Communication is instantaneous in 2013, but only if received.
The shortage of wins are a symptom of a different problem facing Halladay's Hall candidacy. He pitched sporadically for four years until age 25 and threw only 62 innings because of shoulder woes at age 36. In between, he had only 11 years to make his case. That he got close enough to incite debate is a testament to how dominant Roy Halladay was.
Over a 10 year period (2002-2011) the gangly right-hander was the best moundsman in the game. He led the Majors four times in innings pitched, seven times in complete games, twice in wins and five times in K/BB ratio. His .697 winning percentage, for what it's worth, paced the Majors, and his 2.97 ERA trumped league average by a whopping 48%. He captured a Cy Young on merit in each league and finished in the top five of voting seven times.
The obvious comparison for anyone making a short career case for a pitcher is Sandy Koufax. Koufax was far more dominant over his best six years but nowhere near as dominant over 10.
The difference is that Koufax retired at the height of his powers. We mentally extrapolate his career and wonder how long he could have continued frustrating hitters. No need to wonder about Roy Halladay: he was done. His career denouement of 4-5, 6.82 with more walks and home runs allowed in 62 innings than in all of 2011's 233 frames followed his worst season in a decade. Together, they speak to the trajectory of Halladay's pitching skills. At 37 next season, even a bounce-back wouldn't likely last more than a season or two.
And so, Roy Halladay's final wins against replacement tally comes up 42nd all-time among pitchers, squarely borderline in a Hall of Fame currently comprising 70 hurlers. Were he electing to retire with the same accomplishments at age 34, or coming off another stellar season, we could reasonably grant him three or four more seasons of respectability sufficient to inflate his career numbers to middling Hall of Fame territory. That, unfortunately, is not the case.
A Hall vote for Halladay five years hence would certainly be defensible. But without any reasonable expectation that he could bolster his resume, he appears to come up short.
Halladay is credited with winning just 203 games, rarely enough to secure a bust in the august Hall. Bill James established the inadequacy of measuring pitcher wins in 1979, when Jimmy Carter was president, but word hasn't yet reached everyone just 34 years later. Communication is instantaneous in 2013, but only if received.
The shortage of wins are a symptom of a different problem facing Halladay's Hall candidacy. He pitched sporadically for four years until age 25 and threw only 62 innings because of shoulder woes at age 36. In between, he had only 11 years to make his case. That he got close enough to incite debate is a testament to how dominant Roy Halladay was.
Over a 10 year period (2002-2011) the gangly right-hander was the best moundsman in the game. He led the Majors four times in innings pitched, seven times in complete games, twice in wins and five times in K/BB ratio. His .697 winning percentage, for what it's worth, paced the Majors, and his 2.97 ERA trumped league average by a whopping 48%. He captured a Cy Young on merit in each league and finished in the top five of voting seven times.
The obvious comparison for anyone making a short career case for a pitcher is Sandy Koufax. Koufax was far more dominant over his best six years but nowhere near as dominant over 10.
The difference is that Koufax retired at the height of his powers. We mentally extrapolate his career and wonder how long he could have continued frustrating hitters. No need to wonder about Roy Halladay: he was done. His career denouement of 4-5, 6.82 with more walks and home runs allowed in 62 innings than in all of 2011's 233 frames followed his worst season in a decade. Together, they speak to the trajectory of Halladay's pitching skills. At 37 next season, even a bounce-back wouldn't likely last more than a season or two.
And so, Roy Halladay's final wins against replacement tally comes up 42nd all-time among pitchers, squarely borderline in a Hall of Fame currently comprising 70 hurlers. Were he electing to retire with the same accomplishments at age 34, or coming off another stellar season, we could reasonably grant him three or four more seasons of respectability sufficient to inflate his career numbers to middling Hall of Fame territory. That, unfortunately, is not the case.
A Hall vote for Halladay five years hence would certainly be defensible. But without any reasonable expectation that he could bolster his resume, he appears to come up short.
10 December 2013
Hall Monitor: The Veterans Committee Hates Credibility
The Veteran's Committee voted three managers into Baseball's Hall of Fame this week. They passed on the man who made all three rich -- Marvin Miller.
The managers, Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa, skippered eight World Champs and led their teams to more than 7,500 victories. Voters like wins and like to attribute them to individuals.
Marvin Miller skippered the players' union out of the Dark Ages and into the Modern Era when players have rights and earn their fair share of skyrocketing revenues. Since he took over the union and won the right to free agency, average salaries have leaped roughly 4,000 percent. Voters liked the Dark Ages and don't like high player salaries.
The three managers captained their teams to 37 losing seasons combined. Voters aren't real interested in inconvenient facts.
Marvin Miller never seemed to lose a single battle with Baseball's establishment. In fact, the main criticism against him is that he won too much power for his constituents. Voters don't like it when guys who aren't as smart as they are make a lot more money.
Tony LaRussa is credited with some innovations that have affected the game long-term, such as the ninth-inning specialist, the LOOGY (left-handed, one-out guy) and the good-hitting pitcher batting eighth. Voters like innovation. Cox and Torre, despite their years of managerial success, are not known for any strategic innovations and are not likely to have long-term impact on the game. Voters like innovation but they like wins better. Wins are easy to count.
Marvin Miller's hot brand is stamped on every Major League game, every Major League team, every Major League player, every Major League front office and every baseball fan literally every single day. His impact is ubiquitous every day and will last as long as Major League Baseball does. Voters who are writers are upset that their own union has no teeth. Voters who were players think they earned their millions on their own.
Miller's critics argue that he went too far and corrupted the game with money. They preferred when owners kept their millions and treated players like indentured servants. How're those same people enjoying the endless pitching changes that are Tony LaRussa's legacy?
Joe Torre had a losing record until he inherited Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Tino Martinez, Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Andy Pettitte, Kenny Rogers, Jimmy Key, Paul O'Neil, John Wetteland, Mariano Rivera, Roger Clemens, David Cone, Jorge Posada, David Wells, Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Mussina, El Duque, Johnny Damon, Chien-Ming Wang and Alex Rodriguez. Does anyone really know how much of Joe Torre's managerial success resulted from great managing and how much from historically great talent?
In his first nine years of managing, Bobby Cox's teams won six more games than they lost before he inherited Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Chipper and Andruw Jones, et. al. There's somewhat more evidence of his aptitude inasmuch as the general manager who brought those players to the team was the very same Bobby Cox. In addition, many fewer of Cox's charges than Torre's arrived with pedigrees already established. Nonetheless, can we really be sure that Hall of Fame team leadership was the key to sustained excellence in Fulton County?
One cannot credibly dispute that Marvin Miller is the greatest sports union chief of all time. One can credibly dispute the aptitude of almost any manager, particularly Joe Torre and Bobby Cox, whose skippering brilliance just happened to coincide with the accumulation of Hall of Fame players.
The Veterans Committee doesn't like credibility.
The managers, Bobby Cox, Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa, skippered eight World Champs and led their teams to more than 7,500 victories. Voters like wins and like to attribute them to individuals.
Marvin Miller skippered the players' union out of the Dark Ages and into the Modern Era when players have rights and earn their fair share of skyrocketing revenues. Since he took over the union and won the right to free agency, average salaries have leaped roughly 4,000 percent. Voters liked the Dark Ages and don't like high player salaries.
The three managers captained their teams to 37 losing seasons combined. Voters aren't real interested in inconvenient facts.
Marvin Miller never seemed to lose a single battle with Baseball's establishment. In fact, the main criticism against him is that he won too much power for his constituents. Voters don't like it when guys who aren't as smart as they are make a lot more money.
Tony LaRussa is credited with some innovations that have affected the game long-term, such as the ninth-inning specialist, the LOOGY (left-handed, one-out guy) and the good-hitting pitcher batting eighth. Voters like innovation. Cox and Torre, despite their years of managerial success, are not known for any strategic innovations and are not likely to have long-term impact on the game. Voters like innovation but they like wins better. Wins are easy to count.
Marvin Miller's hot brand is stamped on every Major League game, every Major League team, every Major League player, every Major League front office and every baseball fan literally every single day. His impact is ubiquitous every day and will last as long as Major League Baseball does. Voters who are writers are upset that their own union has no teeth. Voters who were players think they earned their millions on their own.
Miller's critics argue that he went too far and corrupted the game with money. They preferred when owners kept their millions and treated players like indentured servants. How're those same people enjoying the endless pitching changes that are Tony LaRussa's legacy?
Joe Torre had a losing record until he inherited Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Tino Martinez, Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Andy Pettitte, Kenny Rogers, Jimmy Key, Paul O'Neil, John Wetteland, Mariano Rivera, Roger Clemens, David Cone, Jorge Posada, David Wells, Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Mussina, El Duque, Johnny Damon, Chien-Ming Wang and Alex Rodriguez. Does anyone really know how much of Joe Torre's managerial success resulted from great managing and how much from historically great talent?
In his first nine years of managing, Bobby Cox's teams won six more games than they lost before he inherited Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Chipper and Andruw Jones, et. al. There's somewhat more evidence of his aptitude inasmuch as the general manager who brought those players to the team was the very same Bobby Cox. In addition, many fewer of Cox's charges than Torre's arrived with pedigrees already established. Nonetheless, can we really be sure that Hall of Fame team leadership was the key to sustained excellence in Fulton County?
One cannot credibly dispute that Marvin Miller is the greatest sports union chief of all time. One can credibly dispute the aptitude of almost any manager, particularly Joe Torre and Bobby Cox, whose skippering brilliance just happened to coincide with the accumulation of Hall of Fame players.
The Veterans Committee doesn't like credibility.
03 December 2013
Fister Bump for Washington
While Democrats and Republicans in the legislative and executive branches continue their largely successful effort to promote the merits of a Chinese-style dictatorship, there is one man, at least, in the District of Columbia who has demonstrated the ability to deal effectively with adversaries.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn't even need his ATM card to wrangle #2-level starter Doug Fister from the Tigers for a trio of farmhands whom the experts say are more likely roster-filler than prospects.
It seems to be an artifact of positional glut that teams with one too many (name your position, in this case starting pitcher) often fail to demand equal value in trade. They seem to be settling for the value that the redundant player represented for them, rather than the value he would bring to his new team. The Tigers, flush with the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world, found themselves with six healthy starters and five starter slots.
Perhaps Detroit knows something about Fister that none of the rest of us does and was willing to flip him and the $20 million or so he'll command in his last two years of arbitration for some spare parts. (Or perhaps GM Dave Dombrowski needed to unload 20 big stacks in order to sign closer Joe Nathan.) But one would think the rest of Major League Baseball could use 200 innings of top-shelf righthandedness to complement whatever currently constitutes their rotation. It boggles the mind that no one else offered a real package for Fister. Instead, Washington adds to its embarrassment of mound riches -- Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler and now Fister. Yowzah.
You may be wondering what all the fuss is about. For a guy standing six-foot-eight, Fister has largely hidden from view of the average fan these past three years. In 2011, his Seattle teammates saddled him with a 3-12 record despite an ERA 13% better than league average and a nearly 3-1 K/BB rate. The W-L record improved to 8-1 after a mid-season trade to Detroit, which Fister followed in 2012 by rocking a 3.7-1 K/BB rate, battling injuries and continuing to pitch well in Justin Verlander's shadow. This past year, he again topped 200 innings of good command, kept his ERA 15% below league average and trailed in Max Scherzer's wake.
The result is that Doug Fister is a top 20 hurler and now he goes to the weaker league without a DH, where he has dominated batters to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. Hope you enjoyed your playoff run, Braves!
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The woeful Twins, they of 96 losses fully earned in 2013, have at least begun moving in the right direction. Of course, that's hard not to do when your team's primary attributes are lousy hitting and abysmal pitching.
Said by the cognoscenti to possess MLB's best farm, including a pair of pitchers due for The Show in the next 500 days, the team went shopping for a pair of league-average innings eaters to bolster the studs when they arrive. GM Terry Ryan landed Ricky Nolasco for 4/$60 Million, about the going rate, and then headed to the discount rack for Phil Hughes, 3/$24 Million.
Before you gack up breakfast over a 4-14, 5.19 choker coaxing 24 million guaranteed, consider this: As a flyball righty, Phil Hughes was uniquely qualified to suck in Yankee Stadium, where the rightfield fences beckon, and to succeed at spacious Target Field. Looking deeper at the peripherals, Hughes delivered in his misery-plagued 2013 a nearly identical performance to his All-Star 2010 season when he "won" 18 games. If a handful fewer balls had fallen in for hits last season, he'd be his own twin.
And now he is a Twin. And Minnesota can expect the league-average results Hughes was providing to the Yankees while fans were bamboozled by his W-L record. But those league-average results, worth $15 million-a-year to ink Ricky Nolasco, will cost the franchise just $8 million-a-year on Hughes, thanks to that 4-14, 5.19.
The Twins could still use, well, just about anything but a catcher. Signing a pair of ordinary pitchers with digestible contracts is necessary but insufficient. But as the Buddha said, even a thousand mile journey begins with a single step.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn't even need his ATM card to wrangle #2-level starter Doug Fister from the Tigers for a trio of farmhands whom the experts say are more likely roster-filler than prospects.
It seems to be an artifact of positional glut that teams with one too many (name your position, in this case starting pitcher) often fail to demand equal value in trade. They seem to be settling for the value that the redundant player represented for them, rather than the value he would bring to his new team. The Tigers, flush with the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world, found themselves with six healthy starters and five starter slots.
Perhaps Detroit knows something about Fister that none of the rest of us does and was willing to flip him and the $20 million or so he'll command in his last two years of arbitration for some spare parts. (Or perhaps GM Dave Dombrowski needed to unload 20 big stacks in order to sign closer Joe Nathan.) But one would think the rest of Major League Baseball could use 200 innings of top-shelf righthandedness to complement whatever currently constitutes their rotation. It boggles the mind that no one else offered a real package for Fister. Instead, Washington adds to its embarrassment of mound riches -- Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler and now Fister. Yowzah.
You may be wondering what all the fuss is about. For a guy standing six-foot-eight, Fister has largely hidden from view of the average fan these past three years. In 2011, his Seattle teammates saddled him with a 3-12 record despite an ERA 13% better than league average and a nearly 3-1 K/BB rate. The W-L record improved to 8-1 after a mid-season trade to Detroit, which Fister followed in 2012 by rocking a 3.7-1 K/BB rate, battling injuries and continuing to pitch well in Justin Verlander's shadow. This past year, he again topped 200 innings of good command, kept his ERA 15% below league average and trailed in Max Scherzer's wake.
The result is that Doug Fister is a top 20 hurler and now he goes to the weaker league without a DH, where he has dominated batters to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. Hope you enjoyed your playoff run, Braves!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The woeful Twins, they of 96 losses fully earned in 2013, have at least begun moving in the right direction. Of course, that's hard not to do when your team's primary attributes are lousy hitting and abysmal pitching.
Said by the cognoscenti to possess MLB's best farm, including a pair of pitchers due for The Show in the next 500 days, the team went shopping for a pair of league-average innings eaters to bolster the studs when they arrive. GM Terry Ryan landed Ricky Nolasco for 4/$60 Million, about the going rate, and then headed to the discount rack for Phil Hughes, 3/$24 Million.
Before you gack up breakfast over a 4-14, 5.19 choker coaxing 24 million guaranteed, consider this: As a flyball righty, Phil Hughes was uniquely qualified to suck in Yankee Stadium, where the rightfield fences beckon, and to succeed at spacious Target Field. Looking deeper at the peripherals, Hughes delivered in his misery-plagued 2013 a nearly identical performance to his All-Star 2010 season when he "won" 18 games. If a handful fewer balls had fallen in for hits last season, he'd be his own twin.
And now he is a Twin. And Minnesota can expect the league-average results Hughes was providing to the Yankees while fans were bamboozled by his W-L record. But those league-average results, worth $15 million-a-year to ink Ricky Nolasco, will cost the franchise just $8 million-a-year on Hughes, thanks to that 4-14, 5.19.
The Twins could still use, well, just about anything but a catcher. Signing a pair of ordinary pitchers with digestible contracts is necessary but insufficient. But as the Buddha said, even a thousand mile journey begins with a single step.
30 November 2013
Stuffed Turkey of a Hall of Fame Ballot
The Hall of Fame ballot for 2014 has been released, in much the way hounds are released in a wild goose hunt, with 17 legitimate candidates on the list. With only 10 lines on the ballot, voters are going to be doing some triage.
Players on the ballot fall into five categories. The easy two are those who have earned shoo-in status to the Hall and those who merely played with guys who earned shoo-in status. (That's not to say that anyone actually is a shoo-ins; there's no accounting for taste and the ignorance of baseball writers.) We'll call them the "Lou Gehrig" division and the "Chico Ruiz" division. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Tim Raines and Craig Biggio comprise the former group, about which no further discussion is really necessary. They're Famers.
Names such as Armando Benitez, J.T. Snow, Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, Jacque Jones and Richie Sexson populate the list of merely good Major Leaguers. They will have to console themselves with fame, fortune and a boatload of frequent flyer miles.
Next we have the "Pete Rose" division: players whose membership in the Gehrig clan has been revoked because of drug use. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire could almost create their own wing in Cooperstown along with Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson. I would vote for all of these except Palmeiro, who failed a drug test. The rest were so unquestionably spectacular that our suspicions (not to mention a fair bit of evidence) might be overwhelmed the heft of their greatness. It's understandable that voters would exclude all or some of these, though it's not clear what the point of a Hall of Fame without Bonds and Clemens would be.
Then there's the "Sammy Sosa" division, whose members are: Sammy Sosa. Sosa probably took steroids, definitely corked his back and not withstanding all that might be a Hall of Famer. Mix up that witches' brew and there probably won't be much support for his candidacy.
The most taxing decisions concern those players whose numbers don't reflect how we felt about them. This is the "Bobby Grich" division. The advanced stats testify that Alan Trammel was a great-fielding shortstop with a highly respectable .285/.352/.415 slash line, 1200+ runs scored and an MVP season, worth 64 wins against replacement over a 20-year career. Certainly he was a good hitter for a shortstop but most of his career value grades out on the field, about which it's very hard not to be dubious.
Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.525 with 383 home runs and 1311 RBI. He also won Gold Gloves, though the number crunchers can't find any justification for them. On paper, that's a walk-through, but in Coors, there are a lot of questions. In Montreal, Walker was Clark Kent, climbing the corporate ladder slowly but surely with smart reporting and solid management skills. In the thin air of Denver, Walker became Superman, saving the world with his super-strength, flying cape and x-ray vision. In the six years between 1997 and 2002, he posted five amazing seasons, averaging .351/.439/.639. He's credited with 69 wins against replacement, which ordinarily is enough to buy real estate in Cooperstown. It's just that Coors turned Andres Galarraga and Dante Bichette into stars.
By any second-base standards, Jeff Kent was a great hitter. He also wasn't a second baseman. But by first base standards, he was just another guy, posting a .290/.356/.500 line and smacking 377 home runs, including a string of 11 years with 20+ home runs. He knew that his only ticket to the Hall was remaining at the keystone even if his defense was handcuffing his teams. So Kent finished with 57 wins against replacement and a strong argument for inclusion. He makes my ballot with reservations.
On the flip side, Don Mattingly was an awesome hitter until his back began biting into his power. He finished with numbers insufficient for a first baseman to win election, tallying just 41 wins against replacement. Fred McGriff's 493 homers, .377 on base percentage and cool nickname should be enough to vault him to baseball immortality. He smacked 30+ big flies 10 different times. He also DH'd, did nothing on the bases and changed teams six times. The seamheads peg him at 57 wins against replacement, and that might have felt like enough if he'd played most of his career for one or two teams.
So here's my ballot, ignoring the 10-candidate limit, in roughly the order of their greatness:
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Frank Thomas
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Tom Glavine
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent*
Alan Trammel**
Fred McGriff**
Larry Walker**
Jack Morris***
*probably
**not now but I could be persuaded
***shut up
Players on the ballot fall into five categories. The easy two are those who have earned shoo-in status to the Hall and those who merely played with guys who earned shoo-in status. (That's not to say that anyone actually is a shoo-ins; there's no accounting for taste and the ignorance of baseball writers.) We'll call them the "Lou Gehrig" division and the "Chico Ruiz" division. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Tim Raines and Craig Biggio comprise the former group, about which no further discussion is really necessary. They're Famers.
Names such as Armando Benitez, J.T. Snow, Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, Jacque Jones and Richie Sexson populate the list of merely good Major Leaguers. They will have to console themselves with fame, fortune and a boatload of frequent flyer miles.
Next we have the "Pete Rose" division: players whose membership in the Gehrig clan has been revoked because of drug use. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire could almost create their own wing in Cooperstown along with Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson. I would vote for all of these except Palmeiro, who failed a drug test. The rest were so unquestionably spectacular that our suspicions (not to mention a fair bit of evidence) might be overwhelmed the heft of their greatness. It's understandable that voters would exclude all or some of these, though it's not clear what the point of a Hall of Fame without Bonds and Clemens would be.
Then there's the "Sammy Sosa" division, whose members are: Sammy Sosa. Sosa probably took steroids, definitely corked his back and not withstanding all that might be a Hall of Famer. Mix up that witches' brew and there probably won't be much support for his candidacy.
The most taxing decisions concern those players whose numbers don't reflect how we felt about them. This is the "Bobby Grich" division. The advanced stats testify that Alan Trammel was a great-fielding shortstop with a highly respectable .285/.352/.415 slash line, 1200+ runs scored and an MVP season, worth 64 wins against replacement over a 20-year career. Certainly he was a good hitter for a shortstop but most of his career value grades out on the field, about which it's very hard not to be dubious.
Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.525 with 383 home runs and 1311 RBI. He also won Gold Gloves, though the number crunchers can't find any justification for them. On paper, that's a walk-through, but in Coors, there are a lot of questions. In Montreal, Walker was Clark Kent, climbing the corporate ladder slowly but surely with smart reporting and solid management skills. In the thin air of Denver, Walker became Superman, saving the world with his super-strength, flying cape and x-ray vision. In the six years between 1997 and 2002, he posted five amazing seasons, averaging .351/.439/.639. He's credited with 69 wins against replacement, which ordinarily is enough to buy real estate in Cooperstown. It's just that Coors turned Andres Galarraga and Dante Bichette into stars.
By any second-base standards, Jeff Kent was a great hitter. He also wasn't a second baseman. But by first base standards, he was just another guy, posting a .290/.356/.500 line and smacking 377 home runs, including a string of 11 years with 20+ home runs. He knew that his only ticket to the Hall was remaining at the keystone even if his defense was handcuffing his teams. So Kent finished with 57 wins against replacement and a strong argument for inclusion. He makes my ballot with reservations.
On the flip side, Don Mattingly was an awesome hitter until his back began biting into his power. He finished with numbers insufficient for a first baseman to win election, tallying just 41 wins against replacement. Fred McGriff's 493 homers, .377 on base percentage and cool nickname should be enough to vault him to baseball immortality. He smacked 30+ big flies 10 different times. He also DH'd, did nothing on the bases and changed teams six times. The seamheads peg him at 57 wins against replacement, and that might have felt like enough if he'd played most of his career for one or two teams.
So here's my ballot, ignoring the 10-candidate limit, in roughly the order of their greatness:
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Frank Thomas
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Tom Glavine
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent*
Alan Trammel**
Fred McGriff**
Larry Walker**
Jack Morris***
*probably
**not now but I could be persuaded
***shut up
29 November 2013
Lifting the Veil of Luck
It's appropriate on the weekend of Black Friday to discuss shopping frenzies. To some extent, every team is in one now as they kick the tires on free agents who might help them win in 2014 and beyond.
One of the most important advances in the world of baseball analytics is the ability of franchise brass to evaluate personnel realistically. When baseball GMs determine which free agents might help their teams in 2014, they will view 37-year-old Bruce Chen with a jaundiced eye.
Teams will know that Chen's 9-4, 3.27 effort for Kansas City in 2013 was a chimera. Nothing in his pitching profile suggested that he had a special season except the ultimate results. In 121 innings he fanned just 78. He relinquished just 107 hits, primarily because opponents batted only .255 on balls in play (BABIP) against him, 25 points lower than his career rate and 40 notches lower than league average. The chasm opens wider when examining only Chen's 15 starts; he made 19 relief appearances to begin the season before the Royals summoned him back into the rotation.
In addition, Chen stranded 78% of runners who reached base against him, significantly above his lifetime and league average rates. Strand rates are rarely a matter of skill. Finally, an unusually low percentage of fly balls against him left the park, often a sign that a pitcher got lucky with wind, field configuration, and the like. Taken together, the snapshot of Chen's results provides strong evidence that regression troops are arraying on the border and preparing to attack next season. Caveat emptor.
Likewise, Cubs brass won't be relying on Travis Wood to deliver another stellar (literally: he made the All-Star team) 3.29 ERA season in 2014. Wood also enjoyed a low BABIP (.248), high strand rate (77%) and low fly ball/HR ratio. Advanced statistical models suggest his actual performance looked more like a 4.50 ERA.
Instead, Cubs management might hope for bounce-back from Edwin Jackson. Despite an 8-18, 4.98 campaign in '13, Jackson was actually a strong performer. A .322 BABIP against and a frighteningly low (63%) strand rate conspired to denigrate his work. Fangraphs estimates Jackson was worth two wins above replacement, something an ERA of nearly-five would not suggest.
And don't look now, but 2014's Tiger pitching phenom could be Rick Porcello. The 25-year-old righty managed a 13-8, 4.32 line when everything was going against him; it'll be interesting to see what happens when he basks in the sunshine of serendipity. Like Jackson, Porcello suffered a high BABIP and low strand rate in '13, but big flies are what really did him in. One of every seven balls in the air against him cleared the fences, a miserable rate for which he might not be completely responsible. Fangraphs thinks Porcello was more like a 3.50 ERA hurler who was worth 3.5 wins last year.
Over the last four years, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen while his walk rate has held steady. If he can keep the ball in the park just a little better he has a chance to to some damage in 2014.
Remember, regression is a trend, not a guarantee. Jackson could stink up the joint again and Wood could again leave the bases full of runners. It's just not the way to bet.
One of the most important advances in the world of baseball analytics is the ability of franchise brass to evaluate personnel realistically. When baseball GMs determine which free agents might help their teams in 2014, they will view 37-year-old Bruce Chen with a jaundiced eye.
Teams will know that Chen's 9-4, 3.27 effort for Kansas City in 2013 was a chimera. Nothing in his pitching profile suggested that he had a special season except the ultimate results. In 121 innings he fanned just 78. He relinquished just 107 hits, primarily because opponents batted only .255 on balls in play (BABIP) against him, 25 points lower than his career rate and 40 notches lower than league average. The chasm opens wider when examining only Chen's 15 starts; he made 19 relief appearances to begin the season before the Royals summoned him back into the rotation.
In addition, Chen stranded 78% of runners who reached base against him, significantly above his lifetime and league average rates. Strand rates are rarely a matter of skill. Finally, an unusually low percentage of fly balls against him left the park, often a sign that a pitcher got lucky with wind, field configuration, and the like. Taken together, the snapshot of Chen's results provides strong evidence that regression troops are arraying on the border and preparing to attack next season. Caveat emptor.
Likewise, Cubs brass won't be relying on Travis Wood to deliver another stellar (literally: he made the All-Star team) 3.29 ERA season in 2014. Wood also enjoyed a low BABIP (.248), high strand rate (77%) and low fly ball/HR ratio. Advanced statistical models suggest his actual performance looked more like a 4.50 ERA.
Instead, Cubs management might hope for bounce-back from Edwin Jackson. Despite an 8-18, 4.98 campaign in '13, Jackson was actually a strong performer. A .322 BABIP against and a frighteningly low (63%) strand rate conspired to denigrate his work. Fangraphs estimates Jackson was worth two wins above replacement, something an ERA of nearly-five would not suggest.
And don't look now, but 2014's Tiger pitching phenom could be Rick Porcello. The 25-year-old righty managed a 13-8, 4.32 line when everything was going against him; it'll be interesting to see what happens when he basks in the sunshine of serendipity. Like Jackson, Porcello suffered a high BABIP and low strand rate in '13, but big flies are what really did him in. One of every seven balls in the air against him cleared the fences, a miserable rate for which he might not be completely responsible. Fangraphs thinks Porcello was more like a 3.50 ERA hurler who was worth 3.5 wins last year.
Over the last four years, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen while his walk rate has held steady. If he can keep the ball in the park just a little better he has a chance to to some damage in 2014.
Remember, regression is a trend, not a guarantee. Jackson could stink up the joint again and Wood could again leave the bases full of runners. It's just not the way to bet.
28 November 2013
Translating Ryan Braun's News Conference
Admitted liar Ryan Braun made his first public appearance yesterday, serving himself up to reporters while collecting food for needy families in an attempt to whitewash his tattered image. In the wake of his inept non-apology following acceptance of a 65-game suspension for PED use that he had previously denied with self-righteous indignation, Braun's team of lawyers and PR people evidently have devised a new strategy: do nominally good acts and politely decline to discuss the matter in the hopes that reporters will give up asking about it and people will cease to care.
It's a master stroke, because more apologizing, even sincere apologies that acknowledge the breadth and depth of his duplicity and accept total responsibility for it, won't change anyone's mind. Brewer fans will forget Braun's sins as soon as he makes his first appearance in their team's uniform. Like fans everywhere, they care less about morality and ethics than they do about their own desires, and if a former MVP can help them win, that overrides all other considerations.
Don't make that face, Giants fans. You cheered Barry Bonds to the end. Quit chuckling, Florida State followers. You're more concerned that charges against Jameis Winston will affect the Seminoles' championship run than that an innocent young woman might have been raped.
Settle down Baltimorons. You worship Ray Lewis to this day, willfully ignorant that, at the very least, he got away with impeding a double-murder investigation, at worst, he was complicit in the stabbing deaths of two men, and most likely, something in between that warrants punishment and recrimination that he never endured.
For the majority of baseball fans who don't follow Milwaukee's team, the details of Braun's hypocrisy will evaporate to a hazy film and they will forgive him for cheating as they've done for many others. Of course, cheating is the least of Braun's sins.
The rest of us, those paying attention to the cover-up as well as the crime, are deaf to any apologies. Had he not been caught with unassailable proof against him, it is indisputable that Ryan Braun would still be cheating, issuing sanctimonious denials and exploiting his disproportionate power and wealth to crush anyone who might reveal his lies.
To what appears to be his credit, Braun stopped to face reporters at the food drive. "I'm happy to answer your questions," he said. He then spent 15 minutes evading their queries. As a public service, Braindrizzling offers this translated partial transcript of the news conference.
Reporter: Ryan, why did you lie about PEDs?
Braun: As you know, I've been through a lot and as I expressed in my statement...I got into a lot of details at that point and I'm not going to go into further details.
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions but I'm not going to answer them! C'mon, do I look like an idiot? No, in fact I look like a movie star and it doesn't hurt that I'm articulate too. So the good people of Wisconsin will see me politely facing my accusers and won't dwell on the actual verbal content. Yea, me!
Reporter: What do you have to say to the Little Leaguers who really have worshiped the ground you walked on?
Braun: I made a mistake, a huge mistake that's obviously been very difficult to deal with...we all deal with adversity, we all deal with challenges in life and you can take the opportunity to view them as an obstacle or an opportunity to grow from, to learn from and to help others to learn from and that's what I intend to do.
Translation: Little Fucking Leaguers? How about me? I have to endure questions like these from low-life reporters merely for being a scumbag. I'm the victim here! Look at the adversity I have to deal with. Woe is me!
Reporter: In your opinion was the bigger sin using the PEDs or lying about it after the fact?
Braun: As I stated, the goal for me is just being able to move forward. I'm not really going to get into too many specific about what happened except to say I'm extremely remorseful...
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions.
Reporter: Ryan, what was the injury that you referred to in your statement that you took the products for?
Braun: Again, I'm not going to get into specifics and continue to go backward. I'm moving forward...
Translation: My pants are on fire.
Reporter: Don't you think you owe everybody who wants to talk about the specifics and tell us exactly what happened?
Braun: I completely understand and respect where you guys are coming from and that part of your job is to ask those questions but I hope you guys can understand and respect the fact that in an effort to move forward I'm not going to continue to discuss this stuff.
Translation: See, if I keep saying that I won't continue to discuss this stuff people will forget that I never discussed it in the first place and that "this stuff" is cheating my way to an MVP and lying relentlessly for two years to your faces. Do I have the best PR team or what!
Reporter: Ryan, what about the 2011 MVP award? Does this revelation invalidate that award?
Braun: As I said, I'm just going to move forward. I think that's all I can do. I'm not going to go back and discuss things that happened in the past...
Translation: Possession is nine-tenths of the law, suckers! So the trophy is mine as long as I maintain an unbroken chain of custody. In conclusion, I'd like to offer my sincere apology and remorse and also my middle finger to the good people of Milwaukee and all of Major League Baseball and with the help of my vast wealth, my lawyers and my truth spinners, I hope I can outlast everyone's indignation, which I assume will continue unabated for many minutes to come.
It's a master stroke, because more apologizing, even sincere apologies that acknowledge the breadth and depth of his duplicity and accept total responsibility for it, won't change anyone's mind. Brewer fans will forget Braun's sins as soon as he makes his first appearance in their team's uniform. Like fans everywhere, they care less about morality and ethics than they do about their own desires, and if a former MVP can help them win, that overrides all other considerations.
Don't make that face, Giants fans. You cheered Barry Bonds to the end. Quit chuckling, Florida State followers. You're more concerned that charges against Jameis Winston will affect the Seminoles' championship run than that an innocent young woman might have been raped.
Settle down Baltimorons. You worship Ray Lewis to this day, willfully ignorant that, at the very least, he got away with impeding a double-murder investigation, at worst, he was complicit in the stabbing deaths of two men, and most likely, something in between that warrants punishment and recrimination that he never endured.
For the majority of baseball fans who don't follow Milwaukee's team, the details of Braun's hypocrisy will evaporate to a hazy film and they will forgive him for cheating as they've done for many others. Of course, cheating is the least of Braun's sins.
The rest of us, those paying attention to the cover-up as well as the crime, are deaf to any apologies. Had he not been caught with unassailable proof against him, it is indisputable that Ryan Braun would still be cheating, issuing sanctimonious denials and exploiting his disproportionate power and wealth to crush anyone who might reveal his lies.
To what appears to be his credit, Braun stopped to face reporters at the food drive. "I'm happy to answer your questions," he said. He then spent 15 minutes evading their queries. As a public service, Braindrizzling offers this translated partial transcript of the news conference.
Reporter: Ryan, why did you lie about PEDs?
Braun: As you know, I've been through a lot and as I expressed in my statement...I got into a lot of details at that point and I'm not going to go into further details.
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions but I'm not going to answer them! C'mon, do I look like an idiot? No, in fact I look like a movie star and it doesn't hurt that I'm articulate too. So the good people of Wisconsin will see me politely facing my accusers and won't dwell on the actual verbal content. Yea, me!
Reporter: What do you have to say to the Little Leaguers who really have worshiped the ground you walked on?
Braun: I made a mistake, a huge mistake that's obviously been very difficult to deal with...we all deal with adversity, we all deal with challenges in life and you can take the opportunity to view them as an obstacle or an opportunity to grow from, to learn from and to help others to learn from and that's what I intend to do.
Translation: Little Fucking Leaguers? How about me? I have to endure questions like these from low-life reporters merely for being a scumbag. I'm the victim here! Look at the adversity I have to deal with. Woe is me!
Reporter: In your opinion was the bigger sin using the PEDs or lying about it after the fact?
Braun: As I stated, the goal for me is just being able to move forward. I'm not really going to get into too many specific about what happened except to say I'm extremely remorseful...
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions.
Reporter: Ryan, what was the injury that you referred to in your statement that you took the products for?
Braun: Again, I'm not going to get into specifics and continue to go backward. I'm moving forward...
Translation: My pants are on fire.
Reporter: Don't you think you owe everybody who wants to talk about the specifics and tell us exactly what happened?
Braun: I completely understand and respect where you guys are coming from and that part of your job is to ask those questions but I hope you guys can understand and respect the fact that in an effort to move forward I'm not going to continue to discuss this stuff.
Translation: See, if I keep saying that I won't continue to discuss this stuff people will forget that I never discussed it in the first place and that "this stuff" is cheating my way to an MVP and lying relentlessly for two years to your faces. Do I have the best PR team or what!
Reporter: Ryan, what about the 2011 MVP award? Does this revelation invalidate that award?
Braun: As I said, I'm just going to move forward. I think that's all I can do. I'm not going to go back and discuss things that happened in the past...
Translation: Possession is nine-tenths of the law, suckers! So the trophy is mine as long as I maintain an unbroken chain of custody. In conclusion, I'd like to offer my sincere apology and remorse and also my middle finger to the good people of Milwaukee and all of Major League Baseball and with the help of my vast wealth, my lawyers and my truth spinners, I hope I can outlast everyone's indignation, which I assume will continue unabated for many minutes to come.
27 November 2013
The NBA Exists As A Cautionary Tale for MLB
Commenting on the loss of star guard Derrick Rose, a leading NBA analyst asserted that the Chicago Bulls could no longer challenge for the Eastern Conference crown. He noted that despite a terrific coach and some very good players, Chicago could not compete with the two Eastern powers -- the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.
So, 15 games into an 82-game marathon, 13 of 15 teams in the East are simply playing out the string with no hope of a championship. That notion is borne out by this: Miami and Indiana are the only two squads with more wins than losses in their conference, and they're 26-4 between them.
On the other side of the ledger, five teams have won two-thirds or more of their contests. The Western Conference appears to these inexpert eyes to be more wide open. Still, if the competition is merely among those five, as many suggest, 10 others are simply jockeying for draft position.
And yet, they will play 1000 more NBA regular-season games over four months and then begin an interminable playoff season, in which nine of the 16 contenders -- some two of whom must advance to the second round -- haven't a prayer.
That is why the NBA regular season, and the first round of their playoffs, are irrelevant, and can only be considered interesting by those willing to suspend disbelief about the futility facing most fan bases. It seems pretty clear that God put the NBA on this planet as a cautionary tale for Major League Baseball. I hope the next commissioner heeds it.
So, 15 games into an 82-game marathon, 13 of 15 teams in the East are simply playing out the string with no hope of a championship. That notion is borne out by this: Miami and Indiana are the only two squads with more wins than losses in their conference, and they're 26-4 between them.
On the other side of the ledger, five teams have won two-thirds or more of their contests. The Western Conference appears to these inexpert eyes to be more wide open. Still, if the competition is merely among those five, as many suggest, 10 others are simply jockeying for draft position.
And yet, they will play 1000 more NBA regular-season games over four months and then begin an interminable playoff season, in which nine of the 16 contenders -- some two of whom must advance to the second round -- haven't a prayer.
That is why the NBA regular season, and the first round of their playoffs, are irrelevant, and can only be considered interesting by those willing to suspend disbelief about the futility facing most fan bases. It seems pretty clear that God put the NBA on this planet as a cautionary tale for Major League Baseball. I hope the next commissioner heeds it.
24 November 2013
The 10 Best Ideas In Sports (Not!)
Conventional wisdom, like student-athletes, tends to be one and not the other. Below are the 10 greatest and most persistent ideas in sports that have somehow eluded punchline status.
1. How valuable can he be when his team wasn't any good? Let's flip this. How valuable could Ichiro Suzuki have been in 2001 when the Mariners swept the AL West by 14 games, and finished 31 games clear of the Wild Card? Seattle could undeniably have earned a playoff berth without him. Yet the writers who use this question to justify skipping over a league's best player voted Ichiro the MVP by a wide margin.
2. The team controls its own destiny. No one owns a dictionary anymore, I get that. But dictionary.com is one click away. Google is still on computers, last I checked. Is there some vast, worldwide conspiracy to not understand what destiny is? (Hint: see fate, kismet.) Next: the world's physicists discuss in which direction the sun revolves around the earth.
3. His team lost, so he's no longer the leading Heisman candidate. Because his six touchdowns demonstrated a lack of leadership.
4. Championships are all that matter. So being a fan of the Minnesota Twins was just as rewarding in the 1990s as being a fan of the Atlanta Braves, because each team celebrated one World Championship during the decade. The Twins averaged 67 victories, and notched two winning seasons, one division title and one pennant in that span. The Braves averaged 95 victories, and notched nine winning seasons, eight division titles and five pennants. But none of that matters; only championships do.
5. Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships. (Football corollary: offense wins games but defense wins championships.) Brilliant! Think about what this revolutionary concept says: If you hold your opponent to fewer runs (or points) than you score, you will win the title. But if you score more runs (points) than you allow, you won't win the title. This changes everything! It disproves the widely held belief that offense and defense are inversely linked: every run (point) the offense scores, the defense allows.
6. This is a big regular-season game because they're battling for the top seed . . . Sure, because the top seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round while on the other hand, the second seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round. Plus, if these same two teams make it through the post-season gauntlet to meet for the conference championship, the one-seed gets home field/court/ice advantage, which has been proven over the last 30 years to be utterly irrelevant. So they'll be slugging it out in this critically important regular season contest in which both combatants long ago clinched a playoff spot and would never think to rest their best players and protect them from injury. (Now on the radio: George Strait's "Ocean Front Property.")
7. I'm against instant replay because I believe in the human element. You got that right! And while we're at it, let's put the human element back in team travel. No more of these fancy aeroplanes. The teams should just walk from St. Louis to Cincinnati. And no more of this tel-o-visioning either. People should either come to the game or wait for the newspaper to report two days later the information they get from the teletype. And no more of them arthroscopes and other fancy medical doo-dads for injured athletes. Back to surgeons with saws and ether. Because, you know, the human element. We like a system that upholds game-deciding mistakes, which the entire world except the umpires can see replayed. If it's good enough for the Providence Grays, the Boston Beaneaters and the Cleveland Spiders, it's good enough for us.
8. If the team wins a third championship in three years, the quarterback has to get consideration for "greatest college football player of all time." (This one has been suggested specifically of A.J. McCarron, the QB of Alabama.) Wait, I thought defense wins championships. (McCarron's never even earned first team SEC, but 14 of his teammates over the three years have.)
9. He's an RBI guy. Some guys are base stealers. Others are LOOGYs. None is so revered as the man who bats behind the best hitters on his team and exploits his opportunities to plate runs by grounding out, flying out, bouncing into a double-play, sacrificing or other cunning methods. He is the RBI Guy. We never hear about his counterpart, the RS Guy, who walks, steals second, advances to third on a ground out and makes it possible for RBI Guy to knock him in.
10. All that counts is: how many rings does he have? Back-up shortstop Luis Soto is thrilled to hear this. By this accounting, he is one of the great players of all time. He won five championships with the Yankees and Toronto. He accrued a .650 lifetime OPS and earned four wins against replacement over a 13-year career. Whereas Walter Johnson and Ty Cobb combined for one title -- they probably didn't even get rings back in 1924 -- and all they did was enter the Hall of Fame with the first class. Why? Because they had the misfortune to play on bad teams? Pfff! It was because they lacked the will to win! And that's why they can never be the greatest of all time. Johnson, who in every other sense was the most accomplished hurler in baseball history, earned four times as many wins against replacement as Soto -- with his bat.
Go back 50 years and you find an even more spectacular winner than Soto. Third-string Yankee catcher Ralph Houk slugged seven extra base hits, including zero home runs, in his eight year career. He garnered one-tenth of a win against replacement for his entire Major League life. But he had the will to win, as his six World Series rings attest.
In basketball, the same honor goes to Robert Horry. His seven trophies -- two with Houston, three with the Lakers and two with San Antonio -- attest to his transcendence. He may have received some slight assistance from Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Shaquille O'Neill, Kobe Bryant, David Robinson and Tim Duncan.
Those 10 assertions continue to delight, years after their debunking. Long live the myths! (Not!)
1. How valuable can he be when his team wasn't any good? Let's flip this. How valuable could Ichiro Suzuki have been in 2001 when the Mariners swept the AL West by 14 games, and finished 31 games clear of the Wild Card? Seattle could undeniably have earned a playoff berth without him. Yet the writers who use this question to justify skipping over a league's best player voted Ichiro the MVP by a wide margin.
2. The team controls its own destiny. No one owns a dictionary anymore, I get that. But dictionary.com is one click away. Google is still on computers, last I checked. Is there some vast, worldwide conspiracy to not understand what destiny is? (Hint: see fate, kismet.) Next: the world's physicists discuss in which direction the sun revolves around the earth.
3. His team lost, so he's no longer the leading Heisman candidate. Because his six touchdowns demonstrated a lack of leadership.
4. Championships are all that matter. So being a fan of the Minnesota Twins was just as rewarding in the 1990s as being a fan of the Atlanta Braves, because each team celebrated one World Championship during the decade. The Twins averaged 67 victories, and notched two winning seasons, one division title and one pennant in that span. The Braves averaged 95 victories, and notched nine winning seasons, eight division titles and five pennants. But none of that matters; only championships do.
5. Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships. (Football corollary: offense wins games but defense wins championships.) Brilliant! Think about what this revolutionary concept says: If you hold your opponent to fewer runs (or points) than you score, you will win the title. But if you score more runs (points) than you allow, you won't win the title. This changes everything! It disproves the widely held belief that offense and defense are inversely linked: every run (point) the offense scores, the defense allows.
6. This is a big regular-season game because they're battling for the top seed . . . Sure, because the top seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round while on the other hand, the second seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round. Plus, if these same two teams make it through the post-season gauntlet to meet for the conference championship, the one-seed gets home field/court/ice advantage, which has been proven over the last 30 years to be utterly irrelevant. So they'll be slugging it out in this critically important regular season contest in which both combatants long ago clinched a playoff spot and would never think to rest their best players and protect them from injury. (Now on the radio: George Strait's "Ocean Front Property.")
7. I'm against instant replay because I believe in the human element. You got that right! And while we're at it, let's put the human element back in team travel. No more of these fancy aeroplanes. The teams should just walk from St. Louis to Cincinnati. And no more of this tel-o-visioning either. People should either come to the game or wait for the newspaper to report two days later the information they get from the teletype. And no more of them arthroscopes and other fancy medical doo-dads for injured athletes. Back to surgeons with saws and ether. Because, you know, the human element. We like a system that upholds game-deciding mistakes, which the entire world except the umpires can see replayed. If it's good enough for the Providence Grays, the Boston Beaneaters and the Cleveland Spiders, it's good enough for us.
8. If the team wins a third championship in three years, the quarterback has to get consideration for "greatest college football player of all time." (This one has been suggested specifically of A.J. McCarron, the QB of Alabama.) Wait, I thought defense wins championships. (McCarron's never even earned first team SEC, but 14 of his teammates over the three years have.)
9. He's an RBI guy. Some guys are base stealers. Others are LOOGYs. None is so revered as the man who bats behind the best hitters on his team and exploits his opportunities to plate runs by grounding out, flying out, bouncing into a double-play, sacrificing or other cunning methods. He is the RBI Guy. We never hear about his counterpart, the RS Guy, who walks, steals second, advances to third on a ground out and makes it possible for RBI Guy to knock him in.
10. All that counts is: how many rings does he have? Back-up shortstop Luis Soto is thrilled to hear this. By this accounting, he is one of the great players of all time. He won five championships with the Yankees and Toronto. He accrued a .650 lifetime OPS and earned four wins against replacement over a 13-year career. Whereas Walter Johnson and Ty Cobb combined for one title -- they probably didn't even get rings back in 1924 -- and all they did was enter the Hall of Fame with the first class. Why? Because they had the misfortune to play on bad teams? Pfff! It was because they lacked the will to win! And that's why they can never be the greatest of all time. Johnson, who in every other sense was the most accomplished hurler in baseball history, earned four times as many wins against replacement as Soto -- with his bat.
Go back 50 years and you find an even more spectacular winner than Soto. Third-string Yankee catcher Ralph Houk slugged seven extra base hits, including zero home runs, in his eight year career. He garnered one-tenth of a win against replacement for his entire Major League life. But he had the will to win, as his six World Series rings attest.
In basketball, the same honor goes to Robert Horry. His seven trophies -- two with Houston, three with the Lakers and two with San Antonio -- attest to his transcendence. He may have received some slight assistance from Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Shaquille O'Neill, Kobe Bryant, David Robinson and Tim Duncan.
Those 10 assertions continue to delight, years after their debunking. Long live the myths! (Not!)
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