Not Bloody Likely

The baseball press has been all atwitter about the shocking state of affairs that has the two Florida teams moonwalking atop their respective Eastern divisions.

The Rays (nee Devil Rays) have taken five of six from the vaunted Yankees and the Marlins have clawed their way over favorites New York, Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Could it...? I mean actually...?

Well, far be it for me to get into the standings prediction business. But the sad truth is, it's not bloody likely.

The baseball media can't be expected to write articles explaining that it's just May. That any team can build a nice sand castle during low tide. That we've seen it all before and forgotten it two months later. That's it would be much ado about nothing if we were ignorant enough to make ado. After all, they have column inches to fill.

Some of you may recall the juggernaut that was the 2005 Baltimore Orioles, which spent two months as Kings of the AL East. Unfortunately for the good people of Charm City, those months were not August and September. By those late summer months, the swoon was old news, the manager was history and the disgrace of the star first baseman -- a former future Hall of Famer -- was soon to be current events.

Tampa Bay is undoubtedly an improved team with a future that crackles with potential. I suspect that potential will be fulfilled in some other year, perhaps a double-digit member of the 21st century.

Miami's entrant, on the other hand, while an even more compelling story, having traded away their superstar third baseman and their signature (though barely adequate) pitcher, smacks of a charlatan. Consider that the Marlins have nearly one-third of their wins against my beloved bottom feeders from the nation's capital and another four victories over San Diego, the team with the worst record in the NL.

Consider also how the Marlins are winning. Don't go measuring their starting rotation of Scott Olsen, Mark Hendrickson, Ricky Nolasco, Burke Badenhop and Andrew Miller for busts just yet. The latter three have been about what you would have expected, unless you were banking on Miller coming over from Detroit and lighting up the National League.

Hendrickson and Olsen, on the other hand, have been aces, with ERAs of 3.56 and 2.63 respectively. But a closer look shows that combined they walk as many batters as they strike out, which is a recipe for disaster. Their performance virtually guarantees regression, and right quick.

And just as they become a movable object, here come the irresistible forces. Having cashed in all their good karma at season's commencement, the Fish start next week with Arizona, (SF), Mets, Philly and Atlanta. If Mark Hendrickson walks Chipper Jones three times, Mark Texeira's going to make him pay. If Scott Olsen grooves a 3-0 straighty to David Wright, he's going to need a new ball.

But if the pitchers keep it real and Josh Willingham and Dan Uggla still have OPS over 1020 in July, let the baseball writers have at it. Just...it's not bloody likely.