Several readers have asked why no diatribe about the award choices. The answer: I'm still recovering from shock. Writers managed to get all six major awards right. What's to say?
It doesn't hurt that the choices for all but AL MVP were Yale locks. Would anyone really argue that Geovanny Soto wasn't the NL Rookie of the Year? (Well, yes. Three so-called expert baseball writers cast ballots for Edinson Volquez, who didn't qualify for rookie status. Good thing we limit the voting to the people who follow the game daily.) Or that Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the Senior Circuit?
In the AL MVP race, there were two best choices and the BBWAA chose one of them. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.
I could quibble over the large minority of voters who think Ryan Howard, he of the .339 OBP and miserable fielding, is his league's most valuable. I still shake my head over writers' mancrush on Justin Morneau, whose major accomplishment seems to be hitting behind Joe Mauer. But really, down-ballot debates are for geeks, obssessives and childless...um, uh, well I just don't want to engage in them.
Notice that I haven't mentioned the Manager of the Year Award. The truth is, there is no such award. There is simply an award for the manager whose team most out-performed expectations. I don't believe that anyone knows who is having a "good year" or "bad year" managing, short of an outright mutiny by the players. And the proof is that managers never repeat, even though it's fair to assume that whoever is the best manager in baseball is probably the best several years running. The reason is that once a team achieves success, they can't be a surprise the next year.
So bravo for a year in which the deserving were acknowledged. Don't count on it happening again. Blind squirrels don't generally regain their sight.
26 November 2008
Wither the Bombers?
It's going to be a very interesting off-season for the New York Yankees. Not since the early 90s has the team been in such flux.
At 89-73 in '08, the Yankees could be said to be at the precipice of playoff contention, except they're not. They are old, slow, defensively creaky and getting more of each. Their best pitcher from last year retired and another veteran hurler is either joining him or poised to continue his career downslide. They have four DHs, no first basemen and an outfield of noodle arms and rubber legs.
That's the bad news for pinstripe partisans. The good news is that they still have some great assets, including the best hitting shortstop-thirdbaseman combination in the league -- maybe even in history. They have $75 million in bad contracts coming off the books and some delicious free agent possibilities. Dismissing Jason Giambi was the right move because his defensive liabilities limit him to a DH role that render him redundant on this team. He'll find employment on a younger, weaker-hitting lineup.
The obvious apple of the Big Apple's eye is Mark Teixeira. Tex is two players in one -- a peak-of-career banger who draws walks and a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman. He fills an open spot on the diamond and his presence would mitigate some of the infield's defensive deficiencies while his bat delivers RBIs in clumps. With a reasonable expectation of some resurgence from Robby Cano at second base, the Yankees would sport a spiffy infield. Of course, the Teixeira option will come at a nine-figure cost, with warm regards from Scott Boras.
Jorge Posada returns, but at 37 and coming off shoulder surgery he'll need an apprentice. Similarly age-enhanced Ivan Rodriguez and talent-challenged Jose Molina don't qualify. Adios amigos! Ring in the new!
The Yankees should re-sign Bobby Abreu despite his age. Both his patience at the plate and his speed are valuable assets to the Bombers and he'll be needed to fill that decrepit patchwork outfield. Among the now-brittle Matsui, Damon and Abreu there'll never be more than two healthy players, and one of these lefties will be needed to platoon with Xavier Nady against righties. Nick Swisher is an adequate stopgap centerfield option, allowing the Yankees the luxury of not relying on Melky Cabrera's unlikely bounceback. One of Damon, Matsui and Posada can DH while Brett Gardner serves as an everyday defensive replacement.
This arrangement allows for the foreseeable breakdown in bodies over 162 games and will give the front office another year to fertilize the farm system or fish for a unheralded studs.
In the rotation, NY would be well-served by signing an average or better lefty starter. Wang and Joba are locks, and the Potential Twins -- Hughes and Kennedy -- will get their chance. Figuring one of them succeeds sufficiently to be a #3 starter, that leaves the rotation one good pitcher short. (Every team needs a better fifth starter; if the fifth starter was a star he wouldn't be a fifth starter.) Banking on Andy Pettitte's return is a fool's errand, but so is banking on a CC signing. He's going to cost an arm and a stomach; the latter is frighteningly prodigious and the former has thrown 700 innings in three years. This will be the most important move the Yankees make.
Bullpens are always fluid entities and this one is no exception. The 39-year-old Panamanian could lose 10% of his effectiveness and still anchor the pen. Beyond him, a couple of lefty-righty options ought to be available from the scrap heap if Brian Cashman is vigilant.
If Cahsman turn the dial a little towards younger, faster and better defense, the Yankees will be able to reload as they compete with the Red Sox and talent-stuffed Rays. If not, the pinstriped machine will lose worn-out parts as the season progresses and grind to a halt in the dust of Boston, Tampa and even Toronto.
At 89-73 in '08, the Yankees could be said to be at the precipice of playoff contention, except they're not. They are old, slow, defensively creaky and getting more of each. Their best pitcher from last year retired and another veteran hurler is either joining him or poised to continue his career downslide. They have four DHs, no first basemen and an outfield of noodle arms and rubber legs.
That's the bad news for pinstripe partisans. The good news is that they still have some great assets, including the best hitting shortstop-thirdbaseman combination in the league -- maybe even in history. They have $75 million in bad contracts coming off the books and some delicious free agent possibilities. Dismissing Jason Giambi was the right move because his defensive liabilities limit him to a DH role that render him redundant on this team. He'll find employment on a younger, weaker-hitting lineup.
The obvious apple of the Big Apple's eye is Mark Teixeira. Tex is two players in one -- a peak-of-career banger who draws walks and a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman. He fills an open spot on the diamond and his presence would mitigate some of the infield's defensive deficiencies while his bat delivers RBIs in clumps. With a reasonable expectation of some resurgence from Robby Cano at second base, the Yankees would sport a spiffy infield. Of course, the Teixeira option will come at a nine-figure cost, with warm regards from Scott Boras.
Jorge Posada returns, but at 37 and coming off shoulder surgery he'll need an apprentice. Similarly age-enhanced Ivan Rodriguez and talent-challenged Jose Molina don't qualify. Adios amigos! Ring in the new!
The Yankees should re-sign Bobby Abreu despite his age. Both his patience at the plate and his speed are valuable assets to the Bombers and he'll be needed to fill that decrepit patchwork outfield. Among the now-brittle Matsui, Damon and Abreu there'll never be more than two healthy players, and one of these lefties will be needed to platoon with Xavier Nady against righties. Nick Swisher is an adequate stopgap centerfield option, allowing the Yankees the luxury of not relying on Melky Cabrera's unlikely bounceback. One of Damon, Matsui and Posada can DH while Brett Gardner serves as an everyday defensive replacement.
This arrangement allows for the foreseeable breakdown in bodies over 162 games and will give the front office another year to fertilize the farm system or fish for a unheralded studs.
In the rotation, NY would be well-served by signing an average or better lefty starter. Wang and Joba are locks, and the Potential Twins -- Hughes and Kennedy -- will get their chance. Figuring one of them succeeds sufficiently to be a #3 starter, that leaves the rotation one good pitcher short. (Every team needs a better fifth starter; if the fifth starter was a star he wouldn't be a fifth starter.) Banking on Andy Pettitte's return is a fool's errand, but so is banking on a CC signing. He's going to cost an arm and a stomach; the latter is frighteningly prodigious and the former has thrown 700 innings in three years. This will be the most important move the Yankees make.
Bullpens are always fluid entities and this one is no exception. The 39-year-old Panamanian could lose 10% of his effectiveness and still anchor the pen. Beyond him, a couple of lefty-righty options ought to be available from the scrap heap if Brian Cashman is vigilant.
If Cahsman turn the dial a little towards younger, faster and better defense, the Yankees will be able to reload as they compete with the Red Sox and talent-stuffed Rays. If not, the pinstriped machine will lose worn-out parts as the season progresses and grind to a halt in the dust of Boston, Tampa and even Toronto.
15 November 2008
Worse Prospects Than Chief Seattle
Pity poor Jack Zduriencik. It's bad enough no one outside Wroclaw (pronounced: Vrots-waff) can identify him correctly within three consonants. The Seattle Mariners GM now has the unenviable task of trying to build a contender against an improving division without the minor benefit of cash or talent.
Last year when the M's picked up Eric Bedard and his medical chart, I questioned whether they had enough lumber to contend even with him. Ha! This team hasn't even a sapling.
The peak of Marinerdom is an aging Ichiro, who, without the support of power or walks, is fast approaching offensive irrelevance. Other than his base stealing proficiency, he's an empty .310 hitter.
Oh, but wait, Raul Ibanez is a nice player. Yup, and for someone else in 2009. He's a free agent, and unless he loves coffee, rain and the Space Needle, he'll skedaddle to a team that has a snowball's chance in hell to contend, like anyone else in the Majors.
After that, there's Adrian Beltre, a free agent after '09, Jose Lopez, a second-baseman with one good year tucked in his belt, and a sucking black hole on offense. Besides these four, the entire rest of the team was 30 runs worse than a team of Triple-A players. Put another way, Mets back-up outfielder Angel Pagan, who batted .275 with no homers and 12 RBI in 105 plate appearances, was alone worth three more wins to his team, than the entire Mariners roster combined outside the aforementioned quartet.
Seattle might have a reasonable rotation next year. And it might not. Felix Hernandez should continue to excel. Jarrod Washburn may or may not defy predictions that he's over like Hootie and the Blowfish. Bedard might make more than 15 starts. And Carlos Silva might suddenly learn how to miss bats, but that would be counting on a guy with a 6.46 ERA and four strikeouts a game in '08.
The Mariners could decide to convert effective relievers like Ryan Rowland-Smith and Brandon Morrow into starters, but that would deplete the only asset the team has. Still, given the team's utter hopelessness, it's probably worth the risk.
Here's the real problem: former GM Bill Bavasi sunk $80 million into this pile of flotsam and jetsam, leaving Zduriencik with little room to maneuver. He could swap out Beltre and Washburn for some young players and hope the largely barren farm sprouts some tasty treats real fast. But it's looking as if the long, dreary winter in Seattle will last all the way through next Fall.
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