Blind Men and Elephants

The Mets paid the GDP of Belize for Johan Santana's services this year. Quick quiz: Are they getting their money's worth? Is Santana a Cy Young contender?

My guess is that you answered "no" to both questions. After all, Santana's middling 9-7 record attests to something less than dominance. He's been touched for more than a home run per full game and the league is putting 1.16 runners on base per inning, compared to .92 his first Cy Young year. It appears that the NL doesn't agree with him, right?

Not so much right. Santana is giving the Metropolitans everything they expected. He's averaging 6 2/3rds innings per start, with a 2.85 ERA, 44% better than league average. He's delivering way more free passes than usual for him, dropping his strikeout-to-walk ratio way down...to more than 3-1. He's still overmatching hitters, fanning nearly a batter an inning.

The problem has been the other 2 1/3rd innings. The bullpen has done more damage to this Venezuelan than Hugo Chavez, squandering leads in six of the Santana's starts. In all, Santana has eight no-decisions and he's allowed two runs or fewer in seven of them.

How different does Santana look with wins in those games where he limited the opposition to two runs or fewer? With a 16-7, 2.85 line he's a serious Cy Young candidate, right? How can that be; he hasn't done a thing different? Is the Cy Young Award dependent on the quality of a starter's relief pitching?

Well, if you're paying attention to a pitcher's record, the quality of relief pitching is only part of the problem. There's the defense behind the candidate and his offensive support as well. The truth is, if you don't account for context, you're a blind man examining an elephant.

Of course, you can't stop there. Santana makes half his starts in an offensive dead zone. When you adjust for his home park, his ERA ratchets up from great to very good. Then factor in the eight unearned runs and suddenly he's not competitive in the Cy Young race with guys like the Giants' Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren of Arizona.