The Truth About Seamheads

A visit to New York gave me an opportunity to watch the terrific Met TV broadcast team of Gary Cohen, Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling for the first time.

(Full disclosure: Cohen was a college broadcast partner and is a longtime friend. Darling was a subject of a couple of those broadcasts. My friend Mitch has a brother named Keith.)

They talk constantly of on base percentage. Hernandez stresses plate discipline. They seem to understand the massive role of luck. And yet even they -- Hernandez particularly -- (sorry, Mitch's brother) repeated constantly some old shibboleths about new analysis.

Here are some common misconceptions, some of which gained currency on the telecast I saw and others that I hear regularly.

1. "Moneyball" represents stat guys.

Moneyball was a book written by Michael Lewis (not Billy Beane) and a movie sort-of depicting the book. It's about the GM of the small-market A's exploiting inefficiencies in the baseball labor market, particularly with respect to on base percentage. Beyond that, the book and movie (which took the kinds of liberties with the facts that get new head football coaches fired) have no relationship with new baseball analytics.  Calling the work of new analysis "Moneyball" suggests ignorance right from the get-go.

2. Seamheads don't care about batting average.

Batting average is the apple in apple pie. The pie is on-base percentage, which includes other important ingredients, like walks, the crust of the pie.  Carlos Pena can bat .198 and have the same on base percentage as Ichiro, batting .320. In that case, batting average isn't very telling. But if Pena could hit .250, he'd be a star. When Ichiro hits .280, he's a scrub. You need the apples and the crust to make a good pie, and if you ignore the crust, you're not getting the full pie.

3. Stat guys don't like stolen bases.

How can anyone not like stolen bases? Moving a runner from first to second is precious. Stat guys don't like caught stealings. Giving up an out is way more precious. So if you're going to break for second, make sure you've first paid homage to the patron saint of thievery.

Beyond that, even stat guys realize that always playing by the book makes a team predictable, assuming the other team has the same book. (They do. It's on their Nook.) Teams have to bluff ocassionally lest they become transparent.

4. Sabermetricians think they have all the answers.

All the seamheads I read recognize that most of the game is invisible. Hell, R.A. Dickey is 10-1. Dodger backstop A.J. Ellis has a .436 on base percentage. Twins rookie Scott Diamond from Binghamton University has a 2.13 ERA and a 5-1 K/BB ratio. Who had that parlay?

5. The new analysts think the whole game can be reduced to numbers.

What new analysis has shown us is exactly what can and what can't be quantified. Many old schoolers believe RBIs demonstrate how "clutch" a player is. The new analysis proved that "clutchness" is hard to quantify, and however it might be, RBIs are completely unsuited to the task.
 
6. Stat dufuses (the plural of dufus) think they can measure fielding even when their conclusions are contradicted by observation.

Hidebound traditionalists don't realize when they are observing with their hearts. Sometimes the new defensive measures help us to see that. But in 2012, that area of research is still in its adolescence and should not be trusted with the car keys. Right now, the defensive metrics are a tool to help us check our work, but they can't completely replace our eyes, even with all our inherent bias.

7. Seamheads never played the game. They can't possibly know as much as guys who did.

You've obviously never listened to the profound insights of Rob Dibble. Why should a monosyllabic cretin with a live arm see the inner workings of the game more clearly than someone who studies it?

8. The stat goobers don't understand the value of team chemistry.

Maybe the traditionalists can quantify it for the rest of us. Maybe they can explain how the squabbling 1972 A's won the World Series. And then repeated in '73. While they're at it, they might want to do the same for Billy Martin's dysfunctional '77 Yankees and the same primadonnas under Bob Lemon in '78. Those '62 Mets and 2003 Tigers had more good chemistry than Brad Pitt's high school reunion. How'd that work out for them? (NY and Detroit, not the reunion.)

No workplace functions as well when employees prefer splenectomies to each other's company. I wouldn't sign Manny Ramirez to my team with Jamie Dimon's money. But chemistry doesn't replace talent. If you want Veteran Presence and Clubhouse Leadership, hire good coaches.

9. Even with all their numbers, the sabermetrics numbskulls aren't any better at predicting who will succed in the Majors than the teams themselves.

That's because the sabermetrics numbskulls and the teams are one and the same. Every team in the league uses sabermetrics (in addition to scouting) to evaluate talent and avoid losing ground to everyone else using sabermetrics.

10. SABR monkeys don't put much stock in saves, pitching wins, RBIs and other traditional statistics.

Whoops, that one's true. Research shows those statistics correlate poorly with what they are attempting to measure.

There are almost certainly more of these, but I'm on the way to a Met game.
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Nailing Down That Win

Now that he's part of baseball history, Seattle reliever Stephen Pryor knows how Ringo Starr felt.

Pryor was the third of six pitchers in the Mariners' combined no-hitter of the Dodgers, set up by Kevin Milwood's six sharp innings of work. After the 16-year veteran injured his groin, Seattle manager Eric Wedge played the  match-up game, employing five relievers -- Charlie Furbush, Pryor, Lucas Luetge, Brandon League and Tom Wilhelmsen -- to get the last nine outs.

Following Pryor, who recorded the last out of the seventh, Seattle pushed across the only run of the game, giving the rookie right-hander his first Major League win.

Pryor earned the win by contributing the worst outing of the six Mariner pitchers. He entered the game with two outs in the seventh and proceeded to walk two batters before getting his one out. Even Dodger starter Nathan Eovaldi far eclipsed that effort with six innings of shutout ball.

Six pitchers combine to make history, the least among them gets the win. Pitching wins: whatever. Obladi, oblada, life goes on.

Votto Hitter

"Can you believe all the money Joey Votto got?" asked a friend, a Braves fan. "Joey Votto! Is he really that good?"

I can understand his confusion. Votto's traditional stats sing a nice little ditty, but not an aria worthy of the bouquet of Benjamins the Reds have bestowed upon him. Last season, Votto hit .309 with 29 HR and 103 RBI. That's not superstar yo.

This year, Votto is hitting .360, but he's only got 10 HR and 38 RBI. Is that any better than, say, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, who's at .318, 14 HR 45 RBI?

Well, my Toyota Yaris and a Lexus both have four wheels. The Lexis has more headroom but my Yaris gets better gas mileage. So they're about even in quality, right?

Seeking better information yields more accurate answers. Votto leads the NL with 25 doubles, 46 walks, a .480 on base percentage and a .640 slugging percentage (compared to an estimable .383 and .599 for CarGo.) According to Baseball-Reference, Votto is the best hitter in MLB so far, leading baseball in OPS, OPS+, batting runs added, batting wins added, offensive wining percentage, wins above replacement and so on.

That's because the ability to achieve safe passage to first base via plate discipline travels in the blind spot of batting average. Doubles and triples hide behind the curtains in home runs' room. And RBIs -- need we flog that horse carcass again? They're as relevant as a vice president.

It was less dramatic last year, but Votto still led the league in walks and on base percentage, and hit 56% better than average. And of course, he was so good in 2010 that even the baseball writers voted him MVP. On top of that, he's a Gold Glove quality fielder.

So yeah, Joey Votto's really that good. Just don't ask the Triple Crown stats to tell you that.

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A Walk In the Park

The Cubs and Giants squared off yesterday in a Monday matinee for the benefit of sabermetricians everywhere.

Each team posted eight hits, including one double. The Cubs added a stolen base. They also recorded a double play on defense and their pitchers fanned eight to the Giants' five. They strung together their hits better too, with four singles from five batters in the two-run second inning.

Advantage Chicago.

Except.

Five Bearcub hurlers issued seven free passes (to none by San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt), four of them to Buster Posey. That's right, every time Posey came to the plate, he took first base without making an out. To the batting average counters, the star catcher accomplished nothing, but Posey forced Chicago pitchers to throw at least 16 unproductive pitches that failed to record a single out He also created a base runner each time he batted. 

Without an official at bat, Posey scored two of the Giants' three runs, including the game-winner. His batting average didn't rise, he didn't hit a home run, or even a double or triple, he didn't steal a base, he didn't knock in a run. He didn't do anything that would awaken your average sportswriter from his 30-year slumber.

He was just the star of the game.

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In Blind AL Central Can One-Eyed Tigers Be King?

No team has suffered more going from paper to the field this year than the Detroit Tigers. Currently four games under .500, Detroit looked like a mortal lock to win the AL Central after cruising last season and then adding the longball stylings of Prince Fielder in the off-season.

Baseball, even baseball, a game composed largely of combined individual efforts, is more than the sum of its parts. Because the Tigers' holes were evident and large enough to drive Miguel Cabrera through, their miseries were predictable, at least to a degree, and may very well be permanent. It is noteworthy that a blog obsessed with caveats about a long season is turning on this team so quickly. Here's why:

Verlander and the Seven Dwarves -- After the league's ace, who's the second-best starter on this team? Doug Fister had a magical 2011, but he's already missed five starts. The rest of the rotation is inconsistent, except when it's consistently bad. Add to that, Verlander's guaranteed regression to the mean. It's quite a mean, but Verlander can't possibly repeat his Cy Young/MVP season.

Valverde the Arsonist -- Detroit closer Jose Valverde set himself up for a fall in 2012 by delivering on all 45 save opportunities last year. Not only did he blow his first save opp this year, he can't find the plate, walking 15 in 21 innings and looking lost. He's regressed nearly to meaningless.

Ruling with an Iron Mitt -- If you've seen the Tigers play, you know what a circus they are defensively, particularly on the infield. They're immobile on the corners, can't keep a second baseman and have 220 pounds of Jhonny Peralta at short. Yesterday, third-string backstop Omir Santos provided a piquant demonstration of why teams should carry two catchers. He couldn't reach second with his throws on steal attempts and stumbled around like a drunken fawn before missing a foul pop. Other than that, he was great. Besides, at least he can't hit.

This is probably the crux of the matter. Defense is hard to measure; nonetheless, it's important. The Tigers give way runs everyday, and that makes the record a lot worse than the batting averages and home runs suggest.

Lousy rotation + closer implosion + bumbling with the leather = Hmmmm. Detroit is 11th of 14 AL teams in runs allowed.

The Keystone -- Ryan Raburn claimed second base because of his bat, which slugged .432 last year. This year his .209/.211/.165 was a reasonable preview of his replacements as he headed to Toledo. For example, top fill-in Danny Worth has chipped in .209/.293/.229. Detroit has the second worst performance from the keystone in baseball.

The Tigers have assets, of course, particularly at the plate, but so does every team. Does this sound like the profile of a championship contender? I suspect we've seen the real Tigers, whose only chance at the playoffs is as one-eyed man in a division of blind men.

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Hits and Misses

Jo-Yawn

Ending a 51-year drought in anything is noteworthy; my alma mater winning a league title in football would set the herald angels to singing and serve as muse to decades of nostalgic poets.

So bravo for fans of the Flushing Nine who finally got to witness a no-hitter by the blue and orange. The achievement, notched appropriately by Johan Santana, the best hurler to wear a Met uniform since Tom Seaver, was instantly denigrated by the pop group Mr. Obvious and the Contrarians. 

It's true that Santana needed a defensive gem in left field and a bad call on a Beltran double, but all no-hitters require a matrix of defensive mastery and luck.True also: Santana wasn't dominating. He walked five, fanned eight and got scorched a couple of times.

That no-hitters are just lucky seven-hitters is cliche, and long ago stripped them of their glossy finish. A novelty is not worth regretful eruptions. Santana has surely pitched more impressive games during his illustrious career. The blown call was a good turn of luck, but in a sport that is 30% luck, railing against it is as railing against the day turning to night.

What's scary, as the Mets' adept manager Terry Collins noted, is that Santana's shoulder, a year removed from major surgery, endured 134 pitches in order to notch the no-no. Collins was fighting the demons of history, but he'll deeply regret the accomplishment if Santana can't life a beer mug to his lips a week from now.

Panic At the Disco

Remember that awful start by the Red Sox? They're two out of first place despite the loss of Pedroia and Ellsbury. The day the Yankees were in last place? They're a game out and awaiting the return of their best middle reliever and their top speed threat. Reports of the decline and fall of the Phillies' empire? They're over .500. The scorching start in St. Louis? Third place. Cleveland's pennant hopes? 2-5 last week.

Yeah, it's a long season.

An 82-Game Pre-season

Last year, the Washington Nationals finished a game under .500. The L.A. Angels claimed sixth in the AL with an 86-76 record. Had they faced off in the World Series, they would have eliminated five teams with 95+ wins and seven others that had out-performed them during the season. Are you ready for some football?

That's the Stanley Cup Finals this year, except that the L.A. Kings weren't even as accomplished as the Nats. When the #6 seed plays the last seed for the championship, the question is begged: why play a regular season?

It's too bad, because the playoffs have been scintillating and the Kings are crisper than Pringles.

Babes In the Hall

After Sammy Sosa hit .233/.282/.404 with 15 homers in his third season in the majors, eight percent below average, stat guru Bill James wrote that history suggested greatness. "Below average" for a 21-year-old at the world's top level suggests prodigy-level skills. James' research showed Sosa had roughly a one-in-three chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Age is the fulcrum here; in the early years, each year earlier a player holds his own against Majo0r League pitching adds logarithmically to his projected performance. A 24-year-old is much older in baseball terms than a 21-year-old, who is as much older compared to a 20-year-old.

Which brings us to 20-year-old Mike Trout of the Angels and 19-year-old Bryce Harper of Washington. If Harper's .274/.357/.504 (31% above average) and Trout's .309/.370/.537 (53% above average) are representative of their abilities -- and scouts vibrate like an oboe reed when discussing these two -- at least one of them is Hall-bound.

A third of a season is a short resume (Trout actually got a 40-game rehearsal last year with mixed results), but the early returns, combined with minor league domination, support the greatness thesis for these two outfielders. Both demonstrate power, speed, a good batting eye, strong defense and maybe most of all, an ability to learn and adjust.

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Inflicting Pain With the Leather

Don't blame Prince Fielder.

The Big Vegetarian is scoffing down collard greens in Detroit these days, but that's not the reason his former team, last season's NL Central Division champs, is being lapped by the pretenders in Houston and Pittsburgh.

The Milwaukee Brewers deserve the 18-26 spanking they've received from Major League Baseball this year, after wining 94 a year ago. Despite the off-season departure of 275 pounds of slugging, the Brewers continue to rake, tallying 4.34 runs per game, fifth in the senior circuit.

The problem with the Brewers is the pitching. Check out these two high-priced noodle-arms in the rotation:

Shaun Marcum: 2-3, 3.93 ERA 19BB/49K

Zack Greinke: 5-1, 2.70 ERA 12BB/59/K

Whoops! Looks like those two are delivering like email. But the rest of the rotation is pure spam. Consider these in a 3.95 ERA league:

Yovani Gallardo: 2-4, 4.62 ERA 25BB/48K

Randy Wolf  2-4, 6.02 ERA  21BB/29K

Marco Estrada  0-3, 4.50 ERA  7BB/34K

The bullpen is even worse, leaving the team with a 4.48 ERA. That's nearly a full run worse than last year. You can't blame the former first baseman for that. 

You can't blame Fielder for the decline in Fielding either. He contributed less than the racing kielbasa on defense last season. (You never sausage a lousy glove man.)

 

In just 44 games, the Beermakers have cost themselves 27 runs afield, according to Baseball-Reference's Zone Fielding metric. That's about three losses on the defense alone, compared to two wins in 2011. Since the team is third in the Majors in avoiding errors, that can only mean they have all the mobility of a derrick crane. Can't blame Cecil's kid for that. The tatooed first basespheroid actually cost the team six runs with the leather in 2011.

Milwaukee gave up a lot of future talent for Greinke and Marcum, but they can't do it alone. They need some defensive help -- in the field, behind them in the rotation and after them in late innings. They proved last season that they have the talent; they just need to begin showing it before the woebegone Cubs catch them.

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A Fly On the Wall in Cleveland

Cleveland Indians closer, Chris Perez: Um, Mr. Shapiro, you wanted to see me?

Cleveland Indians GM Mark Shapiro: Hey Chris, thanks for stopping by. Have a seat.

Perez: Did you want to congratulate me for striking out the side Saturday?

Shapiro: Uh, no, though that was great. 

Perez: Are you pissed about the walk and hit I gave up on Thursday?

Shapiro: No, no. We won anyway, so that's good.

Perez: We're in first place, though you'd hardly know it from the attendance.

Shapiro: Yeah, that's what I want to discuss. Um, Chris? The thing is, see, uh, shut the fuck up.

Perez: What?

Shapiro: Look, I appreciate that we're 24-18 and in first place, yet we're last in baseball in attendance.

Perez: See what I'm saying?

Shapiro: Sure, and I appreciate that you're 14 for 15 in save opportunities.

Perez: And no one's coming out to see them.

Shapiro: Right, and I'm sure that's frustrating. But see Chris, here's the thing. We're the freakin' Indians. Okay? We haven't delivered on a promise since Carlos Baerga turned to lard in 1996. So it's not like the fans owe us anything. It's their money and they get to decide what to do with it, particularly when it costs 200 bucks to take the family to 1/162nd of the season. Besides that, we play in Cleveland, which means that our fans have to be residents of Cleveland. You see what I'm saying? They've pretty much pinned the suffering meter over the years, particularly with the whole LeBron thing.

Perez: Now that was funny. At least we're not Detroit.

Shapiro: Right, who'd want to be Detroit? Detroit made the World Series a few years ago and won our division last year. And remember, we were 31-16 on May 23 last season and had a seven game lead.

Perez: And we still didn't draw two million people.

Shapiro: ...because we went 49-66 the rest of the way and finished 15 games out. We drew 1.8 million from a city full of people who are in school through June and then leave this godforsaken place during the summer.

Perez: But what about all those years that we sold out?

Shapiro: We didn't suck then! We went 100-44. We made the World Series twice. The fans are smarting from all our late season bed-wetting and waiting for us to prove that we're real before they pour back into the Jake.

Perez: You mean Progressive Field?

Shapiro: Didn't I tell you to shut the fuck up?

Perez: But we are for real. 

Shapiro: Yeah, as real as Kim Kardashian. We've been outscored in our first 45 games. We've played 15 games against the White Sox and Royals, and just three against the Rangers, Yankees and Rays. We've played six more games at home than on the road. We've won nine of 11 one-run games, in part thanks to you and in part because we've been lucky.

Perez: But we're 24-18...

Shapiro: ...and Justin freakin' Masterson is our #2 starter. Casey Kotchman is the best we can do at first base. You know what a slugger he is? He's pounded 62 home runs in his nine year career. That's almost as many as our DH hit in two years ... back when he could hit.

Perez: So you want me to apologize to the fans for dissing them for not showing up?

Shapiro: Hell no. We want you to stand by your comments unapologetically.

Perez: I don't get it.

Shapiro: ...so we can throw you under the bus. The team is going to run from your comments like Wilma Rudolph. We're going to suck up to our potential customers like a nerd to the prom queen. And then, if Derek Lowe keeps pitching out of his mind, and if Jack Hanrahan remains blissfully unaware that he's Jack Hanrahan, and if the Tigers continue to play with holes in their mitts, and if we continue to play teams just as they go cold, well, maybe we'll last through the All-Star break and the fans will peak in, at least out of curiosity.

Perez: And maybe we can win the division!

Shapiro: Sure Chris. And maybe Democrats can balance budgets.

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Houston: We Don't Have a Problem

"Low expectations are the key to happiness."

-- A wise man

The New York Yankees are two games over .500 and Big Apple sports talk airwaves are atwitter -- as is Twitter itself -- with doomsday rhetoric. Manager Joe Girardi has to keep his resume fresh.

In their final season in the National League, the Houston Astros are 18-22 and inducing -- if not glee, then at least gratification. Manager Brad Mills may soon find himself being fitted for a bronze likeness. Thank goodness for low expectations.

Following a dismal 56-106 season in which they finally converted high-priced veterans into batches of prospects, the 'Stros were tabbed for a 2012 as ugly as diaper rash. Las Vegas put the over-under on 98.5 losses. Baseball Prospectus's million pre-season simulations averaged 100 losses for Houston.

Having clung for half-a-decade to a mediocrity-or-bust philosophy featuring aging veterans far beyond their expiration dates, it finally all went sour for the Houston franchise last year. A new owner dismissed baseball's worst general manager and began disassembling the roster in full rebuild mode. In 2011 alone, Houston flipped its remaining veteran assets, Jeff Keppinger, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne, for 10 potential future stars.

Entering this season, fans at Minute Maid Park were slated to be treated to little more than a minor league club. Besides slugger Carlos Lee, no Astro batter had accumulated more than 20 career homers or 120 lifetime RBIs. Not withstanding starters Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and closer Brett Meyers,there might not have been a pitcher on their roster whom a contending team would employ.*

*Okay, almost any team would love to pay 28-year-old righty reliever Wilton Lopez $442K to bring his sub-three ERA and nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio to a mound near them. But since you've never heard of Wilton Lopez, I thought I could get away with ignoring him.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the basement. The Astros are tied for fifth in the league in scoring with such a balanced attack that no one sports an OPS over .806 (near-rookie second baseman Jose Altuve), no one has bopped more than five home runs (Red Sox castoff shortstop Jed Lowrie), and only two regulars have reached safely even 35% of the time (Lowrie and Lee). Paradoxically, this bodes well: it's hard to see where the expected regression is going to come from.

The pitching has also pleasantly surprised, with a middle-of-the-league performance featuring veterans Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and rejuvenated relievers Meyers and Brandon Lyon. 

Still, the Astros no longer value a .501 record. Everything they do in 2012 under new GM Jeff Luhnow is a long-term investment. Lee, Meyers, Lyon and Rodriguez, all 30-somethings with swollen price tags, could be gone by year's end in favor of promising farm stock. Already, young pitchers Paul Clemens, Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles, and first base blue-chipper Brett Wallace are slated for action with the big club. Management is not particularly concerned with whether this team finishes above the Cubs and Pirates in the standings, as long as they make progress towards winning the city's first baseball championship.

All of which provides a foundation of low expectations on which to build a record. 70-92 would look awfully good.

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Another Time Around the Wheel in Baltimore

Break up the Orioles! As of last night, the Baltimorons owned the best record in the American League at 25-14. In the upside-down AL East, they trump Tampa, Toronto, the Yankees and the Red Sox.

If you hear Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young singing "we have all been here before," it's because Deja Vu isn't just a song*, it's the yellow birds' modus operandi. Check out this cheeky blog from April about hot starts at Camden Yards.

*The song came up on my mp3 player earlier this week -- and then it mysteriously played again. No kidding.

In summary, the "Sorryels" have scratched out roughly as many wins as losses in the first half of the season since 2001, and fallen apart thereafter. This very team went 34-20 under Buck Showalter to end the 2010 campaign, then stumbled through most of last season until a 22-16 finish. Counting that, they've Dr. Jekylled their last 77 games with a 47-30 record. But in a decade of futility, what goes up comes down.

Still, the current squad has a pack of underachievers who might finally be delivering. Outfielder Adam Jones and backstop Matt Wieters have lived up to potential so far with OPS of .931 and .851 respectively. A starting staff of four-star prospects has performed at a middling level, a dramatic improvement over previous years. That Brian Matusz has limited opponents to 11.5 hits and one home run per nine innings, for a 3-4, 5.71 record, is a moral victory ranking with Gettysburg compared to last year's combustion of 1-9, 10.69, allowing 14.7 hits and 3.3 big flies per nine.

So go ahead, believe in the Orioles at your own risk. Mostly, I believe in the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays.

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Prior and Wood, If Only They Could

In 1998, "Kerry Wood" was an exclamation. After retiring today, "Kerry Wood" is a warning.

The first-round pick with the big body and the triple-digit heater led Chicago to the playoffs with a 13-6, 3.40, 233-strikeout, Rookie of the Year performance in '98. In his fifth start, he electrified the baseball world with a one-hit, no-walk, 20-strikeout shutout of the Astros, perhaps the greatest pitching effort ever. (The one safety was an infield dribbler by Craig Biggio.)

Before the season ended, Wood was cooling his sore elbow. One playoff start later his ulnar collateral ligament was toast and Tommy John surgery awaited, shelving him for the '99 season. It foreshadowed his entire, snakebit, career

The Cubs rushed him back 12 months later and Wood scuffled in 2000, but regained form in 2001 with 174 innings of 12-6, 3.36 and 217 strikeouts. He whiffed 217 more in '02 and 266 in '03, topping 200 innings each season. At that point, Wood had compiled an impressive 59-41, 3.62 record with 1065 Ks in 903 frames of work.

Then, Wood turned to balsa. He frayed his rotator cuff and missed significant time over the next three seasons, including all but four starts in '06. By '07 Wood was a reliever, and not the kind who wakes the echoes of Wilhelm, Fingers or Rivera. An exceptional '08 gave way to mundanity out of the pen and yesterday, having returned to the Cubs for his valedictory, he gave way after delivering the lineup card and facing one batter -- striking out Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox.

Wood departs at age 35 with an 86-75, 3.67 record and 63 saves. He made two All-Star games and never led the league in anything after age 26, certainly not the resume that Cubs fans dreamed about 14 years ago when he was baffling NL batters.

Although they enjoyed rather little overlap, Wood will forever be paired with fellow flameout Mark Prior. Also a top-five draft pick, Prior exploded on the scene in '02 and dominated in '03, with an 18-6, 2.43 line and 245 strikeouts in the near-pennant season, a performance that earned him a third-place finish in the Cy Young voting. But the wheels came off in '04, as injuries put Prior and Wood in pitching limbo simultaneously.

Prior threw just 229 more Major League innings in his career, which ended* at age 26 with a 42-29, 3.51 tally. There is no doubt that had Prior been able to stay healthy, he could have been one of the greats. (Extrapolate his truncated performance over 15 full seasons and you get a 200-win pitcher with an ERA 24% better than average in a hitters' park and more strikeouts than innings.) But as they say, if the queen had testicles, she'd be king.

*Prior attempted a reboot in 2010 and has tossed around the minors since. He is currently in extended Spring Training for the Red Sox. This requiem may be premature, but that's not the way to bet. More likely, Prior and Wood are memories, a cautionary tale for all those who would project past performance into the future. Dwight Gooden, Dontrelle Willis, Mark Fidrych and a long parade of others send their regards.

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Slash Stats and Triple Crowns

Babe Ruth never did it. Barry Bonds never did it. Neither did Stan Musial or Willie Mays or Honus Wagner. Josh Hamilton might do it -- at least he's on track to.

It's winning the Triple Crown, of course. Hamilton has been AL pitching's daddy over the first 31 games, pacing the circuit in batting average, HR and RBI (and total bases and on base and slugging and OPS.) In fact, he's on pace* to hit .402 with 94 homers and 214 RBI. I'm thinking that will get it done at season's end. And here's the thing: even though Triple Crown stats have been debunked of their mystical powers, every Triple Crown winner has stood tallest against his peers.

Should Hamilton maintain his torrid pace, the story wouldn't be the Triple Crown, it would be the greatest batting season in MLB history. .402 BA, 84 HR and 214 RBI is so awesomely awesome that nobody needs your fancy stathead equations or VORP readings to cast an MVP vote.

Even sporting more pedestrian Triple Crown lines, every single player who's lead his circuit in those three categories has also led his league in OPS. Without debunking the popular version, the more significant (though easier) achievement is the slash stats Triple Crown of OBP/SLG/OPS. It's more significant because it more often identifies the league's best hitter.

Since 1939, the rookie year for the MVP award, there have been 15 seasons in which a batter got aboard safely and hit for power better than everyone else in the league. (Ted Williams did it five times, Barry Bonds and Stan Musial twice each. Babe Ruth achieved the feat nine times, all prior to '39.) Nine of the 15 times the Slash Stat King failed to knock in the most runs. In eight of those 15 seasons the league's best hitter failed to win the MVP. (Two pre-humidor Rockies are included on this list; they didn't deserve the MVP. On the other hand, Williams went 0-for-5 on the MVPs, probably all of which should have been his.)

So what correlates with the MVP? In 12 of the 15 years that a player Triple Slashed, the MVP came from the team that finished first. Twice more the winner's team won the Wild Card.

It's a good reminder of two things:

1. Triple Crown stats are like government communiques: they often suggest something but rarely tell the whole story. In extreme cases, it's pretty obvious what's going on.
2. Want the hardware? Forget the walks. Play with teammates who get on base and make sure you bat behind them.

*giggle
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How Many Benjamins for Hamilton?

That thudding sound you heard when Josh Hamilton deposited his third and fourth line drives into the seats last night was the sound of GM Jon Daniels smacking his forehead.

Daniels has the unenviable task of dealing with Hamilton's 2013 free agency status just as his center fielder is mashing.

What Daniels no doubt knows is that while Hamilton is a great player and a heart-warming tale of redemption, he's also a 31-year-old with an emergency room loyalty card. Despite his .313/.370/.556 stick and defensive prowess in a key position, this is not a man to whom you give a golden parachute.

A batter who hits .250 is a .250 hitter. A pitcher who fans 250 a year is a strikeout pitcher. Likewise, a player who pays rent to the disabled list is injury prone. In his first five seasons, Josh Hamilton has made five DL trips and missed 205 games due to 20 different injuries as varied as broken ribs, a strained hammy, a sore back and patellar tendinitis. That's 40 games a season during which Josh Hamilton had absolutely no value to his team whatsoever.

The fans in Dallas don't care about that. All they see are his Triple-Crown numbers so far this season, his 75 home run pace, his 2010 MVP, his Adonis profile, his devout faith, and of course, the only two AL pennants in team history. They want him back. 

So does Jon Daniels, but he recognizes that Josh Hamilton is only three-quarters of a superstar if he only plays 120 games. While players with his mad skills coax $25 million/year, Hamilton is only worth three-quarters of that --$19 million. While other superstars ink deals that guarantee their income to age 40, the Rangers would be imprudent to commit to their injury-riddled slugger beyond four or five years.

It's going to be interesting to see where this goes. My guess is that Hamilton fractures a pinkie or ruptures a spleen or contracts blue skin disorder before the season ends because, well, that's what Josh Hamilton does. And that will splash a dose of reality on the negotiations.

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From Hoser to Closer

Has a player who's gone oh-for-eight with five strikeouts, a double-play and utterly no defensive value ever been the hero of a game?

It happened Sunday in the 17-inning tilt between Baltimore and Boston. Having burned through his bullpen, Orioles' manager Buck Showalter sent flailing designated hitter Chris Davis to the mound. Davis hurled two scoreless frames, fanning a pair and earning the win as his teammates plated three runs in the 17th.

In other words, Davis was responsible for 15 outs: nine that he hit into and six that he induced.

The 26-year-old right-hander last toed the rubber for Navarro (Texas) Junior College in 2006. It's also the first time in 2012 that he's made eight consecutive outs. Davis was philosophical about the turn of events.

Summoned to pitch, he thought to himself, "Sweet, I get to try something different today, because hitting ain't working." 

By the way, Rube Waddell of the Boston Americans beat the Philadelphia Athletics 4-2 in 20 innings on July 4, 1905 while taking the double-collar.

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Big Donkey Kicking Again

And so, with 27 games in the books, we can conclusively pronounce Adam Dunn's career no longer over.

Dunn, as you may recall, achieved a dubious distinction last year: he had the worst mid-career season any great hitter has ever had. Dunn batted .159, fanned in 36% of his at-bats and swatted just 11 big flies, fewer than a third of his usual output.

This year, he's at an extremely Dunnian .250/.376/.587 with nine homers. He's more than halfway to last year's RBI total and and has already collected nearly 40% of last year's hit total. Enough ballots have been counted for retirement to concede. The Big Donkey's still kicking.

Whew! 'Cause that dude is fun to watch with his all or nothing approach. He's nearing 400 home runs, 1,000 RBI and 2,000 strikeouts. His .374 lifetime OBP belies that lousy batting average (.244). And if Dunn isn't Done -- he's just 32 -- he could rack up lots more highlights.

Hooray for us.

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Attention Met Fans: Is Wright Best Ever?

I commend to your attention, if you live and die with the ballers in Flushing, this article by Alex Remington and published by the excellent site Fangraphs. 

On the occasion of David Wright's ascension to alltime Met RBI king, Remington notes that Wright was already the greatest Met position player of all time. (Tom Seaver, of course, is the best player ever and will be for a long time. As Remington also points out, the history of the team is thick with pitchers but not so much with hitters.)

I've co-opted this graph to support Remington's case. It shows that while Hall of Famers have passed through, Wright's time as a Met is first for overall value as a Met.

Name	G	PA	HR	RBI	SB	triple slash		Fld	BsR	WAR
David Wright	1121	4849	186	735	151	.301/.381/.508		-26.6	7.5	40.2
Darryl Strawberry	1103	4549	252	733	191	.263/.359/.520		7		36.6
Jose Reyes	1050	4840	81	423	370	.292/.341/.441		15.4	18.5	33.4
Carlos Beltran	839	3640	149	559	100	.280/.369/.500		12.4	17.3	30.9
Edgardo Alfonzo	1075	4449	120	538	45	.292/.367/.445		44.9		30.7
Mike Piazza	970	3941	220	655	7	.296/.373/.542		-48.9	-7.2	30.2
Keith Hernandez	875	3684	80	468	17	.297/.387/.429		52		27.0
Howard Johnson	1149	4591	192	629	202	.251/.341/.459		-81		24.0

 

WAR=Wins Against Replacement

The fielding numbers are calculated in runs, not in wins, so Piazza loses about five wins, not 49, for his ineptitude as a backstop. Also remember that WAR is adjusted for position. Wright's hitting prowess is remarkable compared to other hot cornermen while Hernandez lacked the punch of most first basemen and Straw was being measured against other corner outfielders.

Your mileage may vary when it comes to who the greatest everyday Met has been, but if he stays with the team, by next year David Wright should be #1 alltime in hits, walks, doubles, runs, RBIs and batting average (for players with more than 500 at bats) as a Met.

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Playoffs! Playoffs?

Finally, Still, college football is going to have a playoff starting in 2014. 

The braying of the uninformed aside, college football has had a playoff for a decade. It's a one-game playoff between the top two teams, as determined by the worst method in the world except for all the other methods.

(The method most people want used is the one in which they personally get to choose the two teams.)
 
The discussion now on the table involves four teams rather than two, which maintains the sanctity of the championship series while preserving the urgency of the season. It may, however, sap yet more relevance from the bowl games, particularly those that don't get to host a championship series game. Imagine the spectacular pyre of apathy facing, say, the Sugar Bowl, as it hosts two teams not involved in the playoffs.

Another seductive element under consideration is the removal of automatic qualifiers to the BCS bowls, particularly inasmuch as the conferences have all the coherence and permanence of Dennis Rodman's hairdo. Consider:

• The Big East includes teams in Houston and Dallas. 
• The Big Ten has 12 teams, but can't become the Big 12, because that's the name of another conference, which has 10 teams. 
• The Atlantic Coast includes Pittsburgh, 366 miles from the coast. 
• The Atlantic 10 includes a team from St. Louis, 950 miles from the Atlantic.
• Conference USA stretches from the NC coast to the Arizona border. 
• New Jersey Tech plays in the Great West conference. 
• The Southeast Conference will next year play in Columbia, Missouri, which is neither south nor east.

No wonder college athletes don't know anything: even the presidents of their schools are confused. Despite that, it appears we'll soon have an improved (and more lucrative, imagine that!) champion determinant in college football that won't undermine the weekly excitement of the regular season.
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That's Some Good Pitching . . . Not!

Clinging to a 3-2 lead yesterday, Atlanta handed the ball to the dynamic relief duo of Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrell to nail down the eighth and ninth innings. 

The pair faced six Diamondback batters and whiffed them all. That's some good pitching.

In Seattle, White Sox starter Phil Humber faced 27 Mariners and retired every last one of them. (Does it count as a perfect game if it's the Mariners? It's not like they have any Major Leaguers in their lineup.) That's some good pitching.

In Boston, starting moundsman Felix Doubront fanned seven Yankees while limiting them to one run in six innings en route to a 9-1 lead. That's some good pitching.

Over the next 20 batters, five relievers combined to set the lead ablaze. They walked five batters, and relinquished five singles, four doubles and two home runs. (There was one error.) Fourteen runs crossed the plate. They managed to record five outs, two of them on a rocket line-drive double play. That's some good pitching. Not!

The photos of Vicente Padilla, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Alfredo Aceves and Justin Thomas would be hanging in Post Offices today, if Post Offices still existed. (Or perhaps they are hanging there, but who would actually know? It's possible that Post Offices have gone on to bat cleanup for Seattle, which is to say they exist in some metaphysical sense, but not in the real world.)

In any case, the bullpen has so far been the undoing of Boston's playoff hopes. It has earned its 8.44 ERA and cost the Red Sox several games, though none as dramatic as yesterday's. Besides taking more opportunities to shut up, this will be Bobby Valentine's top priority if he's going to have success in New England.
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Hey, I'm Just Sayin'

The following falls into the category of "I'm not saying, I'm just saying." It is an argument wholly without merit. In fact, it isn't even an argument.

I'm just saying.

Last season, Ryan Braun hit .332/.397/.597 in a good-hitting home park surrounded by a monster lineup while trying not to embarrass himself in left field.

Matt Kemp hit a nearly-identical .324/.399/.586 in a ravine (no, literally, in a Ravine) surrounded by a lineup of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (we'll say the pitcher was Snow White) while contributing speed and a strong arm to the middle pasture.

The Baseball Writers opted for Braun as MVP because he had better teammates, an age-old and thoroughly-discredited logical process.

Come the off-season, Braun was allegedly caught juicing and won acquittal on a technicality. Kemp impressed by steadfastly refusing to denigrate Braun or the MVP vote and stifling efforts to transfer the MVP to him.

So far in the vindication round, here's the tale of the tape: Braun is scuffling to .245/.316/.388 with one home run. Kemp is at .481/.521/1.000 with eight home runs in 14 games. With less than 1/10th of games played, Kemp leads the league in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, total bases, slugging and OPS.

Even if this did have any bearing on last year, it's not just premature, it's prematurely premature. It's so premature the baby was delivered before it was conceived. 

I'm just saying.

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Bo Ryan Is Not An Idiot

Did you hear Wisconsin basketball coach Bo Ryan's justification for restricting redshirt freshman Jarrod Uthoff's transfer options to "anywhere east of Kazakhstan"?

(He later rescinded most of the restrictions, saying the original list was a negotiating tactic to get the kid to discuss the issue with him.)

Ryan had the nearly unlimited ability to prevent a "student-athlete" from transferring because NCAA rules allow coaches to "protect the program." And so that stipulation is part of the "contract" signed by "student athletes" in the revenue sports before they begin "working." (All the words in quotes are Bo Ryan's, not mine. Except he never used the word "student-athlete.")

Ryan didn't use the word "student-athlete," because he's not a liar. He did use the word "job." Because Bo Ryan also isn't an idiot. He knows that basketball at the University of Wisconsin, as it is at every other BCS school, is about money, not about students. The players have "jobs," not extra-curricular activities. They are employees, not scholars. And he is their boss, whose job security depends on their excellence at their job, which is basketball, not academics.

So when the NCAA makes rules about how "student-athletes" can transfer, the rules protect the teams, not the "students." And when Bo Ryan enforces the rules, he is concerned about the program's bottom line, not the employee's future. Bo Ryan acted rationally given the actual circumstances, as opposed to the fictional circumstances that comprise the NCAA narrative.

Here's the richest part of the story: In 1999, Bo Ryan signed a six-year contract to coach at UW-Milwaukee, which he broke after two seasons to "transfer" to Madison for piles more cash. As I said, Bo Ryan is not an idiot. But anyone who thinks that big time Division I football and basketball are about "student-athletes" is.

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