The White Sox and Tigers: A Tale of Two Rebuilds

Since 2015, the Detroit Tigers have been perched on the canyon of crushed dreams. Though they won 86 games last year, it has been clear that their aging core and financial inflexibility were going to lead to ruin.

The Chicago White Sox are less in decline than in continued misery. Lousy since 2011, management finally accepted the inevitable and began selling off parts after last season.

This season, both rosters have been for sale. The White Sox, a stars and scrubs outfit, have auctioned off all their best veterans and stockpiled one of the best farm systems. Detroit is another story.

The Tigers, like the city that hosts them, are stuck.  Their roster is fat with aging veterans on regrettable contracts. 

• The great Miguel Cabrera, reduced to 13% above average at the plate but lacking a position on the field, is guaranteed $180 million after this season.
• Justin Verlander has a 4.66 ERA and $56 million coming to him. 
• Jordan Zimmermann is a sixth starter due $74 million. 
• The Victor Martinez ship has sailed and left behind an $18 million bill for next year.

In other words, the best players in Detroit would not be assets to trade partners. Even if the Tigers eat the bulk of the contracts, the combined value in 2017 of these four players has been one win.

While the White Sox convert assets like Chris Sale and Jose Quintana into top prospects, the Tigers are stranded. They probably need to endure this pain for another two years before VMart and Verlander come off the books. They've cashed in J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton might still entice some interest, but the clock can't yet begin on their future.

Fister Bump for Washington

While Democrats and Republicans in the legislative and executive branches continue their largely successful effort to promote the merits of a Chinese-style dictatorship, there is one man, at least, in the District of Columbia who has demonstrated the ability to deal effectively with adversaries.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo didn't even need his ATM card to wrangle #2-level starter Doug Fister from the Tigers for a trio of farmhands whom the experts say are more likely roster-filler than prospects. 

It seems to be an artifact of positional glut that teams with one too many (name your position, in this case starting pitcher) often fail to demand equal value in trade. They seem to be settling for the value that the redundant player represented for them, rather than the value he would bring to his new team. The Tigers, flush with the Verlanders and Scherzers of the world, found themselves with six healthy starters and five starter slots.

Perhaps Detroit knows something about Fister that none of the rest of us does and was willing to flip him and the $20 million or so he'll command in his last two years of arbitration for some spare parts. (Or perhaps GM Dave Dombrowski needed to unload 20 big stacks in order to sign closer Joe Nathan.) But one would think the rest of Major League Baseball could use 200 innings of top-shelf righthandedness to complement whatever currently constitutes their rotation. It boggles the mind that no one else offered a real package for Fister. Instead, Washington adds to its embarrassment of mound riches -- Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detwiler and now Fister. Yowzah.

You may be wondering what all the fuss is about. For a guy standing six-foot-eight, Fister has largely hidden from view of the average fan these past three years. In 2011, his Seattle teammates saddled him with a 3-12 record despite an ERA 13% better than league average and a nearly 3-1 K/BB rate. The W-L record improved to 8-1 after a mid-season trade to Detroit, which Fister followed in 2012 by rocking a 3.7-1 K/BB rate, battling injuries and continuing to pitch well in Justin Verlander's shadow. This past year, he again topped 200 innings of good command, kept his ERA 15% below league average and trailed in Max Scherzer's wake.

The result is that Doug Fister is a top 20 hurler and now he goes to the weaker league without a DH, where he has dominated batters to the tune of a 2.04 ERA. Hope you enjoyed your playoff run, Braves!

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The woeful Twins, they of 96 losses fully earned in 2013, have at least begun moving in the right direction. Of course, that's hard not to do when your team's primary attributes are lousy hitting and abysmal pitching. 

Said by the cognoscenti to possess MLB's best farm, including a pair of pitchers due for The Show in the next 500 days, the team went shopping for a pair of league-average innings eaters to bolster the studs when they arrive. GM Terry Ryan landed Ricky Nolasco for 4/$60 Million, about the going rate, and then headed to the discount rack for Phil Hughes, 3/$24 Million. 

Before you gack up breakfast over a 4-14, 5.19 choker coaxing 24 million guaranteed, consider this:  As a flyball righty, Phil Hughes was uniquely qualified to suck in Yankee Stadium, where the rightfield fences beckon, and to succeed at spacious Target Field. Looking deeper at the peripherals, Hughes delivered in his misery-plagued 2013 a nearly identical performance to his All-Star 2010 season when he "won" 18 games. If a handful fewer balls had fallen in for hits last season, he'd be his own twin.

And now he is a Twin. And Minnesota can expect the league-average results Hughes was providing to the Yankees while fans were bamboozled by his W-L record. But those league-average results, worth $15 million-a-year to ink Ricky Nolasco, will cost the franchise just $8 million-a-year on Hughes, thanks to that 4-14, 5.19. 

The Twins could still use, well, just about anything but a catcher. Signing a pair of ordinary pitchers with digestible contracts is necessary but insufficient. But as the Buddha said, even a thousand mile journey begins with a single step.

Surprising Chokenicity or Super Clutchanism?

If you're one of those who paddle the choke/clutch canoe, you're bailing water right now.

Until a few days ago, the narrative was simple: the Yankees choked and Tigers were clutch. Pinstripers entered the batting icebox together at the start of the ALCS, leading to historically low averages and run production in four games against Detroit.

Now in the first three games of the World Series, the Tigers' lineup has switched the clutch switch to choke. Shut out twice all season, they've doubled that total in the last two games.

Wait, what? The Tigers were clutch in Game Five against Oakland and then for four games against New York. And now they've suddenly turned to Jello? Those clutch pills wore off fast!

Oh, but maybe the Giants are even clutchier. With a foot on their necks in the NLDS against Cincinnati, they took three straight for the series win. Flailing against the Cardinals, they reprised the feat to earn a World Series berth. So while the Tigers are clutch, the Giants are Super Clutch, and by comparison Detroit is a choker. But against the Double-Secret Chokers in New York, the Tigers looked clutch.

Of course, none of this explains how a clutch team like the Giants gets down in the first place 2-0 in a five-game post-season series or 3-1 in a seven-game series. Isn't that a little chokey? Doesn't that suggest some pre-clutchy chokiness on the part of San Francisco? Does choking nearly to the point of strangulation before winning suggest Pseudoclutchiness, or Extra Clutchosity with a Cherry on Top?

Also, how could the Yankees be World Class Chokers when Mr. Clutch of All Time himself is their captain. Is their Two-Hands-Around-the-Throat-Chokerism so great that even the mighty King Clutch is no match for it? I need someone to explain this to me. I lost the rulebook.

I have a wacko friend who suggested this other outlandish theory that I mention here just for giggles and, like, knowledge. He says the Yankee lost because their bats went through a four-game cold spell, just as even the best teams do from time-to-time. He says the Tigers, after a five-day layoff (that's another meme that someone will have to explain to me: professional baseball players lose all their skills from Monday to Saturday? Wow!) and with a top-heavy lineup (can you say Avisail Garcia, .319 SLG in 23 MLB games?) have scuffled against a good pitching staff and lost three games. That's not shocking, he says, considering Detroit lost three straight 11 times over the course of the season.

Ha! What a knucklehead! Randomness and luck are no basis for settling a world championship. We need a plausible narrative to explain the inexplicable, even if it's transparent rubbish. We're sticking with clutchism and chokefulness.

Unless, of course, Detroit storms back to tie the Series. Then we create a whole new narrative. Giant Chokers!

In Blind AL Central Can One-Eyed Tigers Be King?

No team has suffered more going from paper to the field this year than the Detroit Tigers. Currently four games under .500, Detroit looked like a mortal lock to win the AL Central after cruising last season and then adding the longball stylings of Prince Fielder in the off-season.

Baseball, even baseball, a game composed largely of combined individual efforts, is more than the sum of its parts. Because the Tigers' holes were evident and large enough to drive Miguel Cabrera through, their miseries were predictable, at least to a degree, and may very well be permanent. It is noteworthy that a blog obsessed with caveats about a long season is turning on this team so quickly. Here's why:

Verlander and the Seven Dwarves -- After the league's ace, who's the second-best starter on this team? Doug Fister had a magical 2011, but he's already missed five starts. The rest of the rotation is inconsistent, except when it's consistently bad. Add to that, Verlander's guaranteed regression to the mean. It's quite a mean, but Verlander can't possibly repeat his Cy Young/MVP season.

Valverde the Arsonist -- Detroit closer Jose Valverde set himself up for a fall in 2012 by delivering on all 45 save opportunities last year. Not only did he blow his first save opp this year, he can't find the plate, walking 15 in 21 innings and looking lost. He's regressed nearly to meaningless.

Ruling with an Iron Mitt -- If you've seen the Tigers play, you know what a circus they are defensively, particularly on the infield. They're immobile on the corners, can't keep a second baseman and have 220 pounds of Jhonny Peralta at short. Yesterday, third-string backstop Omir Santos provided a piquant demonstration of why teams should carry two catchers. He couldn't reach second with his throws on steal attempts and stumbled around like a drunken fawn before missing a foul pop. Other than that, he was great. Besides, at least he can't hit.

This is probably the crux of the matter. Defense is hard to measure; nonetheless, it's important. The Tigers give way runs everyday, and that makes the record a lot worse than the batting averages and home runs suggest.

Lousy rotation + closer implosion + bumbling with the leather = Hmmmm. Detroit is 11th of 14 AL teams in runs allowed.

The Keystone -- Ryan Raburn claimed second base because of his bat, which slugged .432 last year. This year his .209/.211/.165 was a reasonable preview of his replacements as he headed to Toledo. For example, top fill-in Danny Worth has chipped in .209/.293/.229. Detroit has the second worst performance from the keystone in baseball.

The Tigers have assets, of course, particularly at the plate, but so does every team. Does this sound like the profile of a championship contender? I suspect we've seen the real Tigers, whose only chance at the playoffs is as one-eyed man in a division of blind men.

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A Good Start Is A Good Start

There's some good news out of Detroit, and I don't mean that people are buying Fords again. At the risk of over-analyzing one week of play, two key Tigers have brought smiles to the Comerica faithful.

Miguel Cabrera hit .323 with 33 homers in his first campaign with Detroit last year, but was seen as lackadaisical about his play and his conditioning, brought to a head when he was arrested for extremely drunk driving at 5 a.m. late in the season when every game was critical. Detroit lost a one-game playoff for the division title.

Cabrera was also picked up for a domestic incident, though charges were never filed. Tiger management -- most notably task-master manager Jim Leyland -- reportedly delivered to him a verbal spanking in private and challenged him to demonstrate in 2010 that he is worth his $153 million contract.

Cabrera reportedly arrived in camp in better shape, and so far -- sure, it's just four games -- is hitting .471/.526./834 with a couple of homers. Cabrera can hit in his sleep, even when his sleep ends with a hangover, so that's not necessarily a sign that he's unusually fit. But the arrow is pointing in the right direction, and adding his talent with some new focus is scary.

Similarly, Dontrelle Willis has made but one start. Nonetheless, he looked better than he has anytime in the last two years, when he combined for a 1-6, 8.22 mark in just 53 innings, with 35 strikeouts and a miserable 63 walks. At 28, this is it for the amiable lefty, and he has responded with a resurgent spring training and six innings of two-run ball in his opener, punctuated by four strikeouts and just two walks. "His WHIP with Detroit is over 2. His confidence had fallen to zero," wrote Sports Illustrated columnist Jon Heyman.

Indeed, D-Train suffered Social Anxiety Disorder after his trade from Florida --along with Cabrera -- for whom he earned Rookie of the Year status in 2003. Reports from camp in Lakeland indicated that his spirits and velocity had returned to high levels. His first start was a good start, which is a good start and nothing more, but it's still better than a bad start.

If Cabrera can play like an MVP and Willis can deliver even .500 quality in the #5 slot of the rotation, Detroit's title hopes take a giant step forward. In a division that might be had with 86 wins, that's really good news for a city that hasn't had much lately.

Plus, the Ford Fiesta hatchback is pretty cool.
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Intriguing Teams of 2010, Part 2

Their aging, overpaid veterans have not delivered their value. Their young pitching staff is a cauldron of potential. They dealt their centerfielder to a team that needs him less than they do. Their superstar is a knucklehead. They signed a 36-year-old to be their speedy leadoff hitter. Their impending mediocrity appears to be even more mediocre than last year’s mediocrity.

In other words, they are a favorite in their division.

They’re the Detroit Tigers, and predicting what they might produce this season is as futile as predicting the next San Francisco earthquake. The bookies and statheads seem to agree that the over/under is somewhere around .500. But the Tigers are equally likely to win 91 or 71 as 81, so volatile is their team.

Let’s start with the lineup, which features the league’s most reluctant superstar, Miguel Cabrera. Just 26, he’s already pounded 209 home runs and posted a .925 OPS over six years, playing an average of 159 games a year. As a first baseman in ’09, he delivered his usual performance while overweight and apparently uninterested.

After a verbal spanking from Jim Leyland, Cabrera reportedly buckled down over the winter and reported to camp unencumbered by adipose or attitude. One shudders to think how much better he might be. The Tigers can only hope he’s enough better to compensate for 36-year-old Magglio Ordonez, whom Detroit management allowed to play enough in ’09 to vest a $14 million option despite slugging just .426 with nine homers.

Add third baseman Brandon Inge, who couldn’t hit a volleyball in the second half last year, and shortstop Carlos Guillen, who slumped in ’09 at age 33, to black holes at catcher and second base, and you have to wonder how Detroit will score any runs if Cabrera doesn’t produce.

On the other hand, inking Johnny Damon to lead off could catapult the Tigers to the win column. By solidifying the most underrated spot in the lineup, Damon sets the table for the aforementioned big guns and gives them someone to knock in. He’ll also add some speed to a slow outfield, though he may want to flip the ball to promising centerfielder Ryan Raburn on sacrifice flies.

Then there’s the big cats’ pitching staff, which could deliver anything from dazzling to disastrous. We know that Justin Verlander is money in Comerica Bank, but what to make of Jeremy Bonderman (injured the last two years), Nate Robertson (dinged last year after surrendering a 6.35 ERA in ’08) and rookie phenom Rick Porcello (3.96 ERA despite just 89 K in 171 innings)? Add to that fickle young flamethrowers Max Scherzer in the rotation and Daniel Schlereth in the pen, both of whom Detroit picked up in trade with Arizona, and the return of once-upon-a-time closer Joel Zumaya, and you get the distinct sense that this team could go up or down in a big way.

It’s hard to argue with the experts that 81 wins is about the midpoint for Motown, but this team is the poster child for standard deviation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them either look down on the division or up at Kansas City in the final standings this year.