12 May 2012

Slash Stats and Triple Crowns


Babe Ruth never did it. Barry Bonds never did it. Neither did Stan Musial or Willie Mays or Honus Wagner. Josh Hamilton might do it -- at least he's on track to.

It's winning the Triple Crown, of course. Hamilton has been AL pitching's daddy over the first 31 games, pacing the circuit in batting average, HR and RBI (and total bases and on base and slugging and OPS.) In fact, he's on pace* to hit .402 with 94 homers and 214 RBI. I'm thinking that will get it done at season's end. And here's the thing: even though Triple Crown stats have been debunked of their mystical powers, every Triple Crown winner has stood tallest against his peers.

Should Hamilton maintain his torrid pace, the story wouldn't be the Triple Crown, it would be the greatest batting season in MLB history. .402 BA, 84 HR and 214 RBI is so awesomely awesome that nobody needs your fancy stathead equations or VORP readings to cast an MVP vote.

Even sporting more pedestrian Triple Crown lines, every single player who's lead his circuit in those three categories has also led his league in OPS. Without debunking the popular version, the more significant (though easier) achievement is the slash stats Triple Crown of OBP/SLG/OPS. It's more significant because it more often identifies the league's best hitter.

Since 1939, the rookie year for the MVP award, there have been 15 seasons in which a batter got aboard safely and hit for power better than everyone else in the league. (Ted Williams did it five times, Barry Bonds and Stan Musial twice each. Babe Ruth achieved the feat nine times, all prior to '39.) Nine of the 15 times the Slash Stat King failed to knock in the most runs. In eight of those 15 seasons the league's best hitter failed to win the MVP. (Two pre-humidor Rockies are included on this list; they didn't deserve the MVP. On the other hand, Williams went 0-for-5 on the MVPs, probably all of which should have been his.)

So what correlates with the MVP? In 12 of the 15 years that a player Triple Slashed, the MVP came from the team that finished first. Twice more the winner's team won the Wild Card.

It's a good reminder of two things:

1. Triple Crown stats are like government communiques: they often suggest something but rarely tell the whole story. In extreme cases, it's pretty obvious what's going on.
2. Want the hardware? Forget the walks. Play with teammates who get on base and make sure you bat behind them.

*giggle
b

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