Houston: We Don't Have a Problem

"Low expectations are the key to happiness."

-- A wise man

The New York Yankees are two games over .500 and Big Apple sports talk airwaves are atwitter -- as is Twitter itself -- with doomsday rhetoric. Manager Joe Girardi has to keep his resume fresh.

In their final season in the National League, the Houston Astros are 18-22 and inducing -- if not glee, then at least gratification. Manager Brad Mills may soon find himself being fitted for a bronze likeness. Thank goodness for low expectations.

Following a dismal 56-106 season in which they finally converted high-priced veterans into batches of prospects, the 'Stros were tabbed for a 2012 as ugly as diaper rash. Las Vegas put the over-under on 98.5 losses. Baseball Prospectus's million pre-season simulations averaged 100 losses for Houston.

Having clung for half-a-decade to a mediocrity-or-bust philosophy featuring aging veterans far beyond their expiration dates, it finally all went sour for the Houston franchise last year. A new owner dismissed baseball's worst general manager and began disassembling the roster in full rebuild mode. In 2011 alone, Houston flipped its remaining veteran assets, Jeff Keppinger, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne, for 10 potential future stars.

Entering this season, fans at Minute Maid Park were slated to be treated to little more than a minor league club. Besides slugger Carlos Lee, no Astro batter had accumulated more than 20 career homers or 120 lifetime RBIs. Not withstanding starters Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and closer Brett Meyers,there might not have been a pitcher on their roster whom a contending team would employ.*

*Okay, almost any team would love to pay 28-year-old righty reliever Wilton Lopez $442K to bring his sub-three ERA and nearly 5-1 K/BB ratio to a mound near them. But since you've never heard of Wilton Lopez, I thought I could get away with ignoring him.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the basement. The Astros are tied for fifth in the league in scoring with such a balanced attack that no one sports an OPS over .806 (near-rookie second baseman Jose Altuve), no one has bopped more than five home runs (Red Sox castoff shortstop Jed Lowrie), and only two regulars have reached safely even 35% of the time (Lowrie and Lee). Paradoxically, this bodes well: it's hard to see where the expected regression is going to come from.

The pitching has also pleasantly surprised, with a middle-of-the-league performance featuring veterans Rodriguez and Bud Norris, and rejuvenated relievers Meyers and Brandon Lyon. 

Still, the Astros no longer value a .501 record. Everything they do in 2012 under new GM Jeff Luhnow is a long-term investment. Lee, Meyers, Lyon and Rodriguez, all 30-somethings with swollen price tags, could be gone by year's end in favor of promising farm stock. Already, young pitchers Paul Clemens, Aneury Rodriguez and Jordan Lyles, and first base blue-chipper Brett Wallace are slated for action with the big club. Management is not particularly concerned with whether this team finishes above the Cubs and Pirates in the standings, as long as they make progress towards winning the city's first baseball championship.

All of which provides a foundation of low expectations on which to build a record. 70-92 would look awfully good.

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