No team has suffered more going from paper to the field this year than the Detroit Tigers. Currently four games under .500, Detroit looked like a mortal lock to win the AL Central after cruising last season and then adding the longball stylings of Prince Fielder in the off-season.
Baseball, even baseball, a game composed largely of combined individual efforts, is more than the sum of its parts. Because the Tigers' holes were evident and large enough to drive Miguel Cabrera through, their miseries were predictable, at least to a degree, and may very well be permanent. It is noteworthy that a blog obsessed with caveats about a long season is turning on this team so quickly. Here's why:
Verlander and the Seven Dwarves -- After the league's ace, who's the second-best starter on this team? Doug Fister had a magical 2011, but he's already missed five starts. The rest of the rotation is inconsistent, except when it's consistently bad. Add to that, Verlander's guaranteed regression to the mean. It's quite a mean, but Verlander can't possibly repeat his Cy Young/MVP season.
Valverde the Arsonist -- Detroit closer Jose Valverde set himself up for a fall in 2012 by delivering on all 45 save opportunities last year. Not only did he blow his first save opp this year, he can't find the plate, walking 15 in 21 innings and looking lost. He's regressed nearly to meaningless.
Ruling with an Iron Mitt -- If you've seen the Tigers play, you know what a circus they are defensively, particularly on the infield. They're immobile on the corners, can't keep a second baseman and have 220 pounds of Jhonny Peralta at short. Yesterday, third-string backstop Omir Santos provided a piquant demonstration of why teams should carry two catchers. He couldn't reach second with his throws on steal attempts and stumbled around like a drunken fawn before missing a foul pop. Other than that, he was great. Besides, at least he can't hit.
This is probably the crux of the matter. Defense is hard to measure; nonetheless, it's important. The Tigers give way runs everyday, and that makes the record a lot worse than the batting averages and home runs suggest.
Lousy rotation + closer implosion + bumbling with the leather = Hmmmm. Detroit is 11th of 14 AL teams in runs allowed.
The Keystone -- Ryan Raburn claimed second base because of his bat, which slugged .432 last year. This year his .209/.211/.165 was a reasonable preview of his replacements as he headed to Toledo. For example, top fill-in Danny Worth has chipped in .209/.293/.229. Detroit has the second worst performance from the keystone in baseball.
The Tigers have assets, of course, particularly at the plate, but so does every team. Does this sound like the profile of a championship contender? I suspect we've seen the real Tigers, whose only chance at the playoffs is as one-eyed man in a division of blind men.
b
No comments:
Post a Comment