Hits and Misses

Jo-Yawn

Ending a 51-year drought in anything is noteworthy; my alma mater winning a league title in football would set the herald angels to singing and serve as muse to decades of nostalgic poets.

So bravo for fans of the Flushing Nine who finally got to witness a no-hitter by the blue and orange. The achievement, notched appropriately by Johan Santana, the best hurler to wear a Met uniform since Tom Seaver, was instantly denigrated by the pop group Mr. Obvious and the Contrarians. 

It's true that Santana needed a defensive gem in left field and a bad call on a Beltran double, but all no-hitters require a matrix of defensive mastery and luck.True also: Santana wasn't dominating. He walked five, fanned eight and got scorched a couple of times.

That no-hitters are just lucky seven-hitters is cliche, and long ago stripped them of their glossy finish. A novelty is not worth regretful eruptions. Santana has surely pitched more impressive games during his illustrious career. The blown call was a good turn of luck, but in a sport that is 30% luck, railing against it is as railing against the day turning to night.

What's scary, as the Mets' adept manager Terry Collins noted, is that Santana's shoulder, a year removed from major surgery, endured 134 pitches in order to notch the no-no. Collins was fighting the demons of history, but he'll deeply regret the accomplishment if Santana can't life a beer mug to his lips a week from now.

Panic At the Disco

Remember that awful start by the Red Sox? They're two out of first place despite the loss of Pedroia and Ellsbury. The day the Yankees were in last place? They're a game out and awaiting the return of their best middle reliever and their top speed threat. Reports of the decline and fall of the Phillies' empire? They're over .500. The scorching start in St. Louis? Third place. Cleveland's pennant hopes? 2-5 last week.

Yeah, it's a long season.

An 82-Game Pre-season

Last year, the Washington Nationals finished a game under .500. The L.A. Angels claimed sixth in the AL with an 86-76 record. Had they faced off in the World Series, they would have eliminated five teams with 95+ wins and seven others that had out-performed them during the season. Are you ready for some football?

That's the Stanley Cup Finals this year, except that the L.A. Kings weren't even as accomplished as the Nats. When the #6 seed plays the last seed for the championship, the question is begged: why play a regular season?

It's too bad, because the playoffs have been scintillating and the Kings are crisper than Pringles.

Babes In the Hall

After Sammy Sosa hit .233/.282/.404 with 15 homers in his third season in the majors, eight percent below average, stat guru Bill James wrote that history suggested greatness. "Below average" for a 21-year-old at the world's top level suggests prodigy-level skills. James' research showed Sosa had roughly a one-in-three chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Age is the fulcrum here; in the early years, each year earlier a player holds his own against Majo0r League pitching adds logarithmically to his projected performance. A 24-year-old is much older in baseball terms than a 21-year-old, who is as much older compared to a 20-year-old.

Which brings us to 20-year-old Mike Trout of the Angels and 19-year-old Bryce Harper of Washington. If Harper's .274/.357/.504 (31% above average) and Trout's .309/.370/.537 (53% above average) are representative of their abilities -- and scouts vibrate like an oboe reed when discussing these two -- at least one of them is Hall-bound.

A third of a season is a short resume (Trout actually got a 40-game rehearsal last year with mixed results), but the early returns, combined with minor league domination, support the greatness thesis for these two outfielders. Both demonstrate power, speed, a good batting eye, strong defense and maybe most of all, an ability to learn and adjust.

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