Which Nice Teams Are Starting Out Naughty?

Welcome to Atlanta, where your 8-25 Braves stand as the 2016 poster boys for mortgaging the present. It's hard to believe now, but the Cincinnati Reds have to wish they were the Braves.

The Reds tried to play both ends against the middle two off-seasons ago and ended up getting toasted both ways. After a 76-86 campaign in '14, they unloaded their second and third best starters but left the rest of the team intact, en route to a 98-loss season.

Having flipped ace Johnny Cueto for some future chips at last year's trading deadline, GM Walt Jocketty sent Todd Frazier to Chicago for more prospect goodies this off-season. And that was it.

Hanging on to middling veterans like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce (getting tagged out, left) and Zack Cozart, he left Joey Votto and the Seven Dwarfs to compete this year against the likes of Pittsburgh, St. Louis and the Cubs. By failing to convert veterans into promising youth, the Reds lack the prospect-laden farm system that hints at a brighter future.

At least the residents of Marietta, Georgia have a future to look forward to.

Others Worthy of Relegation
In short, neither Atlanta nor Cincinnati is surprising anyone with their wretchedness so far this season. Nor are the Twins, who blinded themselves into a false sense of hope with a moment of incandescence last season, nor the Padres, a basket case of a different weave, nor the A's, whose management seems to have run out of ideas about how to convert trash into energy. The Brewers are sowing the bad karma that building around Ryan Braun reaps, not to mention a pitching staff of the following luminaries: Taylor Jungeman, Jimmy Nelson, Willy Peralta, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies.

Then there's the Angels, despite a gargantuan payroll and two inner-ring Hall of Famers, who can't buy a run and whose best starter, now that Garret Richards got laid up is...um...the smoldering ruins of Jered Weaver? Dude hasn't fanned a Major Leaguer batter since 2014.*

It's possible we'll see some dead cat bounce out of Minnesota this year, but that's about the best this pile of owl upchuck can hope for. The real question for these franchises is whether they are on the way up or the way down, or whether they even have a way.

One of These Things Is Not Like the Other
All that leaves us with one head-scratcher, the Houston Astros. If ever a team was tailor-made for a season in which runs are being scored off big flies, it's this ultimate three true outcome team. Houston finished second in homers and fifth in walks last season, and first in whiffs, with seven batters accumulating 100+ Ks, including Colby Rasmus and Chris Carter, who fanned more than 300 times between them. (They also led the league in steals. Go figure.)

They're doing it again this year -- first in strikeouts, first in walks and fourth in going yard. The problem for the Astros is that the guys throwing the most innings are their worst pitchers. Starters 1-4, including last year's Cy Young, have been scorched fora combined 4.87 ERA. Starters #5 and #6 rock a combined 2.48 ERA and the bullpen has neither added nor subtracted.

The all-or-nothing offense combined with a pitching rotation regressing well beyond the mean have spelled doom for Houston, but there is good news in both the immediate past and on the horizon. They've won seven of their last 11 in large part because scads of ill fortune foisted upon them in April is settling out in May. The Astros have played sub-.400 ball so far but Baseball Prospectus projects them to play .543 the rest of the way. Projection systems are for movie theaters, but at least this suggests that the underlying conditions are there for a real recovery.

The early bottom feeders really do appear to be the sport's worst, with one exception. But baseball is a funny game and five months is an awfully long time.

*mild hyperbole but his average pitch speed is 82.7, or roughly how fast I can spit.

It Gets Late Early Around Here

The talk is already starting.

The Rockies (12-19) are  already in the basement, despite a hot start. The Phillies (13-23) claimed their rightful place almost immediately. The Brewers (12-23, 12.5 games out) have the worst record in baseball and the most ground to make up.

So who are they trading?

This is crazy talk, right?

In a word, no.

It's not like we're writing off the Indians or A's, whose early season performances have been similarly distressing. Colorado, Milwaukee and Philadelphia are simply ratifying their woebegone expectations.

All three teams employ aging, overpaid stars who will not be contributors by the time the rosters might conceivably inspire dreams of contention. The faster they convert what's left of those assets into prospects, the less the transition will hurt.

Take the Phillies. Please. By waiting to trade him, the returns on Chase Utley have cratered. In March he was an aging second baseman with some speed, defense and on-base skills. By May he's a decrepit has-been batting .118 and fumbling afield with utterly no trade value.

Ryan Howard has at least socked seven homers to go with his .293 OBP. But with his inability to move laterally or avoid the training table, he's already a $25 million sunk cost.

Still, Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang and Jonathan Papelbon might fetch something around the trade deadline. There's not much point in keeping any of them, particularly not Pop, whose whining, when mixed with a 100-loss season, is a recipe for indigestion.

In Denver, speculating upon Troy Tulowitzki's  next uniform is a favorite activity, along with ski jumping and mountain climbing. Tulo is only 30 and remains a great player during those fleeting interludes between DL stints, but he's signed for $100 million for the next five years (including this one). They need to flip him before his value divots, knowing that whatever the Rocks get for him will be tempered by injury fears.

The only other Colorado teammates over 30 of any note are catcher Nick Hundley and reliever John Axford. Ax might appeal to a contender with an ugly bullpen but there's not much of a market for a backstop worth six wins in eight years -- three of them in 2011.

The Brewers are suds of a different color. Most of their players exude the bloom of youth and the joy of skills. Two of their stars -- catcher Jonathan Lucroy and shortstop Jean Segura -- are on the shelf with injuries. With their return and the addition of one top starter Milwaukee could play meaningful September baseball. They might ultimately be buyers, not sellers.

If they had to unload, the best candidates are: Adam Lind, now producing his third consecutive TAv above .300 and at 31, signed for just one more season; Matt Garza, a 31-year-old third starter with three more years on his contract; and Kyle Lohse, another third starter entering free agency. 

But I don't see any of that. Not only will brass need more convincing that they can't contend, they just picked up Lind and Garza in the last year, so bouncing them would amount to admissions of defeat. Unlike Philly and Colorado, the Brewers might be wise to ride out the wave.

On the flip side, there are the Astros and Yankees. Neither should print playoff tickets just yet...

They Thought It Was the Demented Award

News Item: Milwaukee Brewers nominate Ryan Braun for Roberto Clemente Citizenship Award.

Possible explanations:

1. The Brewers are a collection of axe murderers and baby rapists. Lyin' Ryan's the best they can do.
2. Psych!
3. Clemente used to hammer the Braves when they played in Wisconsin and this is payback.
4. Whoops, they mean Eva Braun.
5. Management in Milwaukee has a deep, abiding sense of irony.
6. They noted that "contributions to the game" had to be "positive" and applied it to urine samples.
7. They are mentally retarded.

It's All Over But the Shouting

Here we are, one-tenth of the way into the season and it all seems to have been decided. 

The Astros, Cubs and Marlins are in last place. The Yankees, Tigers and A's lead the AL divisions and the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Nats and Cardinals are playoff-bound in the NL. Only Milwaukee, with the best record in baseball, and Arizona, with the worst, are major surprises.

It's amazing how quickly teams settle at their natural level. Two weeks into a six-month season the standings look much the way you would have predicted. 

This is certainly not true of individual players. Among the batting leaders are Charlie Blackmon, Devin Mesoraco, Yangervis Solarte and Dee Ferchristsakes Gordon. That's the same Dee Gordon who couldn't hit a Spaldeen off a tee beyond second base the last two seasons (SLG .281 & .298.) 

Among the ERA leaders are Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Kyle Gibson and Robbie Ross.  Didn't Aaron Harang beat Warren Spahn in his first start? However far back he goes (2002, for the record) he's produced a single win over replacement the last four seasons combined.

This is the second consecutive year that the best and worst squads separated themselves by Easter. That's surprising for a game that rewards the top talent with victory only around 60% of the time; a game that meanders through three different seasons; a game of slumps and tears; a game of personnel changes midway through the schedule; a marathon, not a sprint.

That doesn't, of course, mean the Brewers will emerge from the scrum in October. They have been winning with pitching that likely won't carry them for the season's entirety. The starting staff sports a 2.52 ERA and closer K-Rod has yet to surrender a run while collecting five saves. But Fielding Independent measures suggest the rotation is pitching at more like a 3.72 ERA clip, possibly enough to carry the Brews to the playoffs, but not at this pace.

The D-backs are another story. Their hitting is lousy and it's the strength of the team. Arizona pitchers -- Bronson Arroyo and the Nobody Brothers -- are the senior circuit's worst, with a 5.70 ERA and a K/BB under two.Their closer, 25-year-old Addison Reed, won't be closing for long at this pace: he's coughed up seven runs on two gopher balls in one game's worth of relief appearances. Adding insult to injury, 12 of 13 baserunners have successfully swiped a bag off catcher Miguel Montero. It could be a long year in Phoenix.

Then again, it might not be. Funny things happen through the Spring and summer and then into the Fall. The only thing we really can count on is change. And Mike Trout being AL MVP.

Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter

The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?

Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy  (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.

For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.) 

Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances. 

On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.

The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)

The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.

The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.

A Bunch of Lohsers

Here's my theory: Milwaukee Brewer management is so enamored with its crackling-smart win-now strategy of 2011 -- during which they leveraged acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum for the last year of Prince Fielder's tenure in Wisconsin to a division title -- that they decided to reprise the approach this year.

That would explain why they've paid $33 million and their top draft pick for three years of 34-year-old flash-in-the-pan Kyle Lohse.  If Lohse is a number two starter, as his contract suggests, then I'm a number two pencil.

Last year, Lohse pitched the most innings, won the most games, lost the fewest, struck out the most, had the most quality starts, the best K/BB rate, the lowest WHIP and by far the lowest ERA of his journeyman career. After 10 seasons of 88-98, 4.80, Lohse has responded to Dave Duncan's tutelage in St. Louis for a pair of 30-11, 3.10 seasons.

So he's a new pitcher, right? Yeah, not so much. Lady luck has escorted the California righty the last two years, and left him in the care of good Cardinal defense when she's been unavailable. Whether she returns for a third year is up to her, and no one ever accused Milwaukee's fielding of aptitude.

Moreover, and sadly for the team's faithful, it's not 2011 anymore. Fielder, Greinke and Marcum are gone and the Brewers are making a beeline for the basement in the NL Central. Even if Lohse's second act continues, and that's not the way to bet, he might catapult them to .500 in 2013. But he'll cost them in future years, because signing a free agent offered a deal by his incumbent team costs a first-round pick, something the Brews' barren system could little afford to sacrifice.

A lot of mediocre teams are acting as if there are eight extra Wild Cards instead of one and flipping the future for a very uncertain present. It's going to work for someone someday and maybe this is the Brewers' year. But probably not, and Lohse's signing reduces the odds that the next few will be their years either.

Inflicting Pain With the Leather

Don't blame Prince Fielder.

The Big Vegetarian is scoffing down collard greens in Detroit these days, but that's not the reason his former team, last season's NL Central Division champs, is being lapped by the pretenders in Houston and Pittsburgh.

The Milwaukee Brewers deserve the 18-26 spanking they've received from Major League Baseball this year, after wining 94 a year ago. Despite the off-season departure of 275 pounds of slugging, the Brewers continue to rake, tallying 4.34 runs per game, fifth in the senior circuit.

The problem with the Brewers is the pitching. Check out these two high-priced noodle-arms in the rotation:

Shaun Marcum: 2-3, 3.93 ERA 19BB/49K

Zack Greinke: 5-1, 2.70 ERA 12BB/59/K

Whoops! Looks like those two are delivering like email. But the rest of the rotation is pure spam. Consider these in a 3.95 ERA league:

Yovani Gallardo: 2-4, 4.62 ERA 25BB/48K

Randy Wolf  2-4, 6.02 ERA  21BB/29K

Marco Estrada  0-3, 4.50 ERA  7BB/34K

The bullpen is even worse, leaving the team with a 4.48 ERA. That's nearly a full run worse than last year. You can't blame the former first baseman for that. 

You can't blame Fielder for the decline in Fielding either. He contributed less than the racing kielbasa on defense last season. (You never sausage a lousy glove man.)

 

In just 44 games, the Beermakers have cost themselves 27 runs afield, according to Baseball-Reference's Zone Fielding metric. That's about three losses on the defense alone, compared to two wins in 2011. Since the team is third in the Majors in avoiding errors, that can only mean they have all the mobility of a derrick crane. Can't blame Cecil's kid for that. The tatooed first basespheroid actually cost the team six runs with the leather in 2011.

Milwaukee gave up a lot of future talent for Greinke and Marcum, but they can't do it alone. They need some defensive help -- in the field, behind them in the rotation and after them in late innings. They proved last season that they have the talent; they just need to begin showing it before the woebegone Cubs catch them.

b