Hits and Misses

Jo-Yawn

Ending a 51-year drought in anything is noteworthy; my alma mater winning a league title in football would set the herald angels to singing and serve as muse to decades of nostalgic poets.

So bravo for fans of the Flushing Nine who finally got to witness a no-hitter by the blue and orange. The achievement, notched appropriately by Johan Santana, the best hurler to wear a Met uniform since Tom Seaver, was instantly denigrated by the pop group Mr. Obvious and the Contrarians. 

It's true that Santana needed a defensive gem in left field and a bad call on a Beltran double, but all no-hitters require a matrix of defensive mastery and luck.True also: Santana wasn't dominating. He walked five, fanned eight and got scorched a couple of times.

That no-hitters are just lucky seven-hitters is cliche, and long ago stripped them of their glossy finish. A novelty is not worth regretful eruptions. Santana has surely pitched more impressive games during his illustrious career. The blown call was a good turn of luck, but in a sport that is 30% luck, railing against it is as railing against the day turning to night.

What's scary, as the Mets' adept manager Terry Collins noted, is that Santana's shoulder, a year removed from major surgery, endured 134 pitches in order to notch the no-no. Collins was fighting the demons of history, but he'll deeply regret the accomplishment if Santana can't life a beer mug to his lips a week from now.

Panic At the Disco

Remember that awful start by the Red Sox? They're two out of first place despite the loss of Pedroia and Ellsbury. The day the Yankees were in last place? They're a game out and awaiting the return of their best middle reliever and their top speed threat. Reports of the decline and fall of the Phillies' empire? They're over .500. The scorching start in St. Louis? Third place. Cleveland's pennant hopes? 2-5 last week.

Yeah, it's a long season.

An 82-Game Pre-season

Last year, the Washington Nationals finished a game under .500. The L.A. Angels claimed sixth in the AL with an 86-76 record. Had they faced off in the World Series, they would have eliminated five teams with 95+ wins and seven others that had out-performed them during the season. Are you ready for some football?

That's the Stanley Cup Finals this year, except that the L.A. Kings weren't even as accomplished as the Nats. When the #6 seed plays the last seed for the championship, the question is begged: why play a regular season?

It's too bad, because the playoffs have been scintillating and the Kings are crisper than Pringles.

Babes In the Hall

After Sammy Sosa hit .233/.282/.404 with 15 homers in his third season in the majors, eight percent below average, stat guru Bill James wrote that history suggested greatness. "Below average" for a 21-year-old at the world's top level suggests prodigy-level skills. James' research showed Sosa had roughly a one-in-three chance of making the Hall of Fame.

Age is the fulcrum here; in the early years, each year earlier a player holds his own against Majo0r League pitching adds logarithmically to his projected performance. A 24-year-old is much older in baseball terms than a 21-year-old, who is as much older compared to a 20-year-old.

Which brings us to 20-year-old Mike Trout of the Angels and 19-year-old Bryce Harper of Washington. If Harper's .274/.357/.504 (31% above average) and Trout's .309/.370/.537 (53% above average) are representative of their abilities -- and scouts vibrate like an oboe reed when discussing these two -- at least one of them is Hall-bound.

A third of a season is a short resume (Trout actually got a 40-game rehearsal last year with mixed results), but the early returns, combined with minor league domination, support the greatness thesis for these two outfielders. Both demonstrate power, speed, a good batting eye, strong defense and maybe most of all, an ability to learn and adjust.

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Sabathia, Nova . . . Johan Santana?

Great news for the Mets from Florida: Johan Santana is flummoxing batters again and appears on track to reclaim his position as ace of the rotation.

Big shakers of salt always have to accompany teams to Spring Training, but it's an especially tasty development in Santana's case following Sept. 2010 shoulder surgery that kept him out of action all last year.

A few more starts like his six-inning domination of the full Cardinals lineup should have Met brass celebrating with Santana's agent. And asking him to waive his no-trade clause.

Consider the Mets' dilemma in lists.

Here's the list of reasons the Metroplitans have no chance to compete in the NL East this year:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. They stink.

Here' are the top 6 items on the Mets' 2012-2013 Christmas list.
1. Money to make payroll.
2. Money to clear debt.
3. Money to sign developing talent.
4. Money to sign key free agents.
5. Young talent.
6. Patient commitment to a rebuilding plan

Here's the list of items, after a new Madoff-related subpoena, that Sandy Alderson can most do without in 2012-2013:
1. An extravagantly expensive 33-year-old starter with health concerns and trade value.
2. Unwarranted expectations by fans that this is anything more than the developmental squad for the 2014 team.

The cash-strapped franchise owes Santana $49 million over the next two years, plus a $5.5 buyout on a $25.5 team option for 2014. The odds of that contract paying off, equal to the odds of anyone picking up that option, are still greater than the odds that the Mets will be competitive during its life. With Santana and some good breaks, the Mets avoid the cellar and/or win half their games. Without him, they flop, rehire some laid-off ticket sales guys and mine some prospects.That's why they need to trade Santana.


The question then is: who would relinquish emerging talent and commit a fat chunk of payroll to an aging, ex-star whose performance began slipping even before his body came apart? By 2010, his heater had cooled a few degrees to 90 mph and his strikeout rate had plummeted to 6.5/game. It was topping 9.0/game in his Twins heyday.


The answer is no one, which is why the Mets would have to kick back a hefty chunk of Santana's salary. Still, saving $15 million/year (minus the $400,000/year cost of his replacement), rather than unloading the full $25 million salary, is better than nothing. It frees up 40 Lucas Duda salaries and maybe helps find the next Lucas Duda or two. 

Now with two Wild Cards, everyone this side of the Astros thinks they're a pitcher away. A veteran squad with a rotation hole and a big bank account -- I'm looking at you Rangers, Yankees,  Red Sox, Cardinals, Marlins and even you Brewers -- might entertain a deal.


The key to a Met Renaissance is as much about whether the team is willing to trade the present for the future as it is about what they are able to get in those trades. As the oldest and least affordable of their chips, a seemingly healthy Santana should be at the top of that list.
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Notes From A Snoreless Tie

Notes after watching the Mets and Cards play 15 16 17 18 19 20 innings of snoreless baseball...

Jose Reyes is not himself. His plate coverage is compromised, his eye is off and his confidence is shot. He can't run down grounders that he used to gobble up. He's just another base runner. He's bereft of the joie de vive that made him such a fan favorite.

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A taut, low-scoring, extra-inning affair in July is nerve-wracking. A listless, scoreless, April reliever-eater in which pitchers bat with the bases loaded, sluggers take the double collar and infielders pitch in crucial situations is downright insomnia-curing.

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Albert Pujols has hit more home runs than anyone in baseball history in his first 10 years. Prince Albert has 371, just ahead of Eddie Matthews (370), Ralph Kiner (369), Ken Griffey Jr. (350) and Alex Rodriguez (345). Did you catch that? Pujols has only played nine years. This is number 10. So he'll own the record by 35 blasts when the season's over.

That's not all. Hitting home runs isn't Albert's primary skill. He's the best hitter for average on that list, takes a walk with the game's best and has a mantle filled with gold gloves. We need some new superlatives for this guy.

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Johan Santana has pitched three games this year effectively but for one disastrous frame. Look out. The Venezuelan southpaw is an oil well ready to gush. Dude had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow six months ago and hasn't yet recovered all of his zing or snapped off a patented Santana slider. Nonetheless, he's relinquished a total of two runs in 17 of his 18 innings. Come summer, hide the women and children; he's going to be a beast.

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It's a sign of the apocalypse when a TV commercial showing a guy jump out his third story window onto the top of a speeding beer truck has to scroll the warning "Professional stuntman. Do not attempt." It seems to me that Darwin would very much approve of someone who requires that warning attempting the stunt. Are people who need to be dissuaded from it capable of reading in the first place?