2017 Showed Us That Harper and Trout are the Game's Best

On the final day of the season, a recovered Bryce Harper stung the ball four times, twice for singles that led to runs. In his final at-bat, he smashed a 114 mph line drive and later sprinted around the basepaths from first to home, helmet airborne, on a long single by a teammate.

Harper is back and ready for the playoffs.

Harper was cruising to another MVP season when he suffered a gruesome leg injury while stepping on a slippery base at full speed after a rain delay. The 50 games he missed left him with merely 29 home runs in a .319/.413/.598 season. 

I've already waxed poetic about Mike Trout, also the MVP of his league had he not ripped up his thumb sliding on a steal. Trout and Harper, the two ends of the charisma continuum, won't earn a single MVP vote between them.

But 2017 reminded us that they are the two best players in the game. That's despite the influx of great young players, particularly middle infielders, over the past three-four seasons. Among them, Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Aaron Judge will get serious MVP consideration this season.

Those four, and many more, are amazing talents who are rejuvenating the game. 

But they're all second fiddle to Trout and Harper.

Does Mike Trout Have a Chance at MVP?

It's scary, really. Mike Trout has spent 40-something games this year in civilian clothes with a torn ligament in his thumb. And he still might be the most valuable player in the league. 

In all of baseball, actually.

Per game played, Trout is out-performing the amazing Mike Trout. Consider the baseline for that statement. In his first five seasons he has been the best player in the league each season. (The writers have seen fit to bestow upon him the MVP just twice, but he's finished second three times.)

Yet this year, at the ripe old age of 25, he's surpassed even that level of accomplishment.

Trout leads baseball in on base percentage, the measure of how few outs he makes.

He leads baseball in slugging percentage, a measure of power. 

Obviously, he leads in OPS, the measure of all-around hitting prowess. He's hitting 91% better than the average batter. Not including pitchers. 

Trout has also stolen 21 of 25 bases and plays stellar defense in the most demanding outfield position. 

Trout is, by far, the game's best player. 

That is, among the greatest ballplayers on the planet, a collection of hitting and fielding savants whose talents are nearly unfathomable, Trout stands head and shoulders above the most elite of that group. He has been worth six wins above a replacement player in just 102 games. That's a rate of more than nine wins for the season.

That's the issue, though. Even if Trout plays in the Angels' remaining 14 games, he will have missed nearly two months of play. During that time, he contributed as much on the field as you have.

Jose Altuve has missed four games. During the other 42 that Trout was hurt, Altuve was Altuving. 

Altuve is no Trout because no one is. He's merely leading the league in batting, getting on base at a 40% clip and ripping 38 doubles and 23 homers. He's also swiped 31 of 37 bases and earned high marks for keystone defense. 

He's basically Trout light. Or short.

Altuve's performance has been worth seven wins above replacement to the Astros. That's far short of Trout's value per game, but nearly a full win more of raw value over the course of the season. 

We're talking about the Most Valuable Player award. It's Altuve's to lose and there isn't much time left for him to lose it. (I should mention here that Andrelton Simmons is close to Altuve in WAR, but much of that is defensive WAR, which we trust much less. Aaron Judge is a few non-significant ticks ahead of Trout also. Neither will out-poll Altuve.)

So Mike Trout will likely once again fail to win the MVP. At least he's got this: he's now the most valuable player in Angels' team history -- after six seasons. 

And early next season he'll pass David Ortiz's career mark. Just start carving that bust now.

Mike Trout is Being Ridiculous Again

Remember Mike Trout? He was the runaway AL MVP until he tore ligaments in his thumb in May. At the time he was hitting .337/.461/.742 with 10 of 11 steals.

He's been back for three weeks and he's doing it again. It appears that the injury has sapped his power, as his slugging has dropped 100 points. He's now down to a desultory .368/.476/.646. He's only crushed five home runs in his 18 games back.

Trout is now back up to third in the American League in Wins Against Replacement, behind the Mutt and Jeff duo of Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge.* Altuve hit .485 in July, while Judge has cooled off since the All-Star break, as he inevitably had to.

*That's Fangraphs' WAR calculation. Trout is 9th according to Baseball Reference, 6th among everyday players. B-R also has Andrelton Simmons second, half a run ahead of Judge.

At this point, the MVP race is among Fangraphs' top three. Putting aside irrelevant considerations, like whether Judge reaches a milestone number of home runs, or how their teams perform around them, or whether one should vote for a player who misses a quarter of the season, it will be interesting to see if Trout can catch Altuve and Judge in WAR.

Fangraphs' projections suggest all three will finish the season with about 7.2 WAR. That means Trout will have contributed as much to his team in 120 games as Judge and Altuve contributed in 160. It takes the otherworldly comparison against Mike Trout to steal the shine from Aaron Judge's amazing debut and Jose Altuve's spectacular career arc.

Whoever is most valuable this season, Mike Trout is best. That race isn't close.

More Stuff About Mike Trout You're Totally Sick Of

Yeah, sorry, this is another Mike Trout episode.  Guy is so freakin' amazing, it's hard not to sing odes to him.

As of May 22, he's hitting .350/.466/.757 with 14 home runs this season. He leads the league in OBP, SLG, OPS and, well, what else you got? He's "on pace" for 57-137-.350 with 36 steals. Just another year.

You know the phenomenon that has been Eric Thames? He's put up unprecedented numbers, almost as awesome as Trout's. Trout has a higher batting average, on base average, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, RBIs, steals and well, everything but runs scored and air time.

Trout is now the youngest player ever to 150 homers and 150 steals. Not exactly a surprise, right?

He's jumped to fourth on the Angels' home run chart -- after five and a half years.

He's got more lifetime WAR, 52, than Lou Brock, Kirby Puckett and Jim Rice. They're in the Hall of Fame, you know.

He's 9th on the active list for WAR in only his sixth full season. The next player under age 26 is Manny Machado...at 54th. Trout has three times Bryce Harper's WAR.

How Hall of Fame is Trout? He's already over the "Black Ink" measuring tool for an average Hall of Famer. Black ink measure the number of categories a player leads his league in. Trout is at 28.

He's at 98 on Bill James' Hall of Fame monitor, where 100 is the Hall standard. He has already out-earned the average HOF center fielder in peak WAR value. 

That's Trout's first 851 games. If he repeats this performance over his next 851 games, he'll have 104 WAR, more than Joe Morgan, Jimmy Foxx, Eddie Matthews, Cal Ripken and George Brett. And he'd be 30.

Life doesn't work that way, of course. Players can get hurt, exploited, diverted or old. Diving into second base ahead of a catcher's throw 30 times in a season takes its toll. So we'll see.

But we've already seen. Mike Trout is the best ever at this point. Sorry, I just had to point it out again.

More Answers To Questions You Didn't Ask

You may have been wondering -- or maybe you haven't. Someone in the last week has posed each of these questions and so I answer them here:

Q. Where will Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo end up?
A. After years of slamming its finger in the same door, the market is now properly valuing aging, immobile sluggers, and it isn't pretty for their agents. I believed one of the former Blue Jays would wind up back with Toronto because they obviously have a hole to fill at that position. With the parrot carrier now poised to bash homers in Cleveland for millions less than he was seeking, I wouldn't be surprised if Joey Bats re-ups at a discount with the Jays. He isn't exactly winning Miss Congeniality votes from other teams. And Baltimore seems to be in hottest pursuit of Trumbo, but also at pennies on his expected dollar.

Q. What are the Mets going to do with their outfield situation?
A. Give Terry Collins headaches? Best guess, unless something dramatic happens: rotate Cespedes and Granderson through centerfield, giving Lagares spot starts and and shuffling him in as a defensive replacement late in games. Send the non-CF Cespedes/Grandy to right and leave Comforto in left to show he can hit. Jay Bruce is a righty bat off the bench. Lots of options if someone gets hurt or doesn't pan out.

Q. Who are your World Series favorites right now?
A. Answering this question is a fool's errand, but I'm game. The World Champion Cubs are the same team as last year, flipping Dexter Fowler for Kyle Schwarber and Aroldis Chapman for Wade Davis. In the AL, the Red Sox are poised to allow about 400 runs next year. The Cy Young winner is their #3 starter.


Q. Now that Bud Selig, who presided over the Steroid Era, is in the Hall of Fame, shouldn't we vote in guys like Bonds, Clemens and McGwire?
A. I don't really see that logic. Selig didn't cheat. That said, I've always been in favor of putting those guys in the Hall.

Here's the problem: you've got Bowie Kuhn in the Hall of Fame, a guy who had an 0-162 record fighting the players' union and who could hardly name a single accomplishment as the commissioner. You've got Gaylord Perry in the Hall, an inveterate cheater who got caught on the field altering baseballs. You've got Lloyd Waner, a thoroughly average Major Leaguer, in the Hall because he batted .316 for his career even though that was his signature skill and team batting averages topped .300 in the '30s. But you want to exclude the top player and pitcher of their era because there's evidence they took an unfair advantage during a portion of their career. It makes no sense.


Q. With the Braves signing all these old former stars, do they really think they have a chance this year?
A. Puff you're inhaler, Braves fans. These guys are just filler. They're signed to one-year deals. If they play well they'll be shipped out mid-season for more prospects.

Q. What do you make of the Diamondbacks?
A. Much like the United States of America, they hired a pair of amateur hacks to run the organization with predictable results. Now they've gotten professional management in there and find themselves with some promising young assets across the infield. Their task going forward will be to acquire some rotation pieces behind Zack Grienke or they'll never contend. Easier said than done.

Q.Not a baseball question, but what do you think of star college football players skipping their bowl games to prepare for the draft?
A. How dare they act in their own best interest! Major college football is about amateur athletics, not about some money grab, says the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.

Q. If Mike Trout played at replacement level for five more years and then retired after the requisite 10-year career, would he get into the Hall of Fame? How about if he was average over the next five years?
A. No and no, because you need more than five stellar seasons to make the Hall of Fame. But the premise of your question is correct. Mike Trout is the greatest player in baseball history over his first five seasons. (He was also the greatest over his first one, two, three and four.) Give him three more Trout seasons and then five bad or mediocre years and he's in.

Q. What about Sandy Koufax? He was a below average pitcher who made the Hall of Fame with five great seasons.
A. Good point. Koufax got extrapolated credit for all the years he didn't pitch after retiring early. Had he pitched at replacement level for three seasons following that unbelievable run I doubt he gets in.

Q. Will the Red Sox regret trading Clay Bucholz? You can never have too much pitching right?
A. They won't regret getting $10 million closer to the luxury tax cap.

Q. Should the Mets trade Jay Bruce?
A. Okay, you're the GM of another team who could use a big bat. The Mets offer you a 30-year-old .250 hitter with 30-homer pop and mediocre defensive skills. What would you give up to get that? For now, I think the Mets should be glad that they have some hitting options to back that pitching staff.

Q. What do you see from the vantage point of San Diego?
A. The ocean.

Q. Come on, I mean what are the Padres' prospects for 2017.
A. At least they have the ocean.

Happy holidays to all!

The Mike Trout Award

Congratulations to the AL MVP Award for winning Mike Trout in 2016. 

The best player on the planet doesn't need another MVP designation, or the three other MVPs he earned but failed to procure because writers don't always understand logic.

Mike Trout is already a Hall of Fame candidate at age 25, with more lifetime wins against replacement than Hall of Famer Jim Rice, who toiled for 11 more seasons than Trout has so far played.

Trout is only the third player in baseball history to finish in the top three in MVP voting five consecutive years (joining Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds) and the first ever to do it in his first five seasons. 

No, Trout is in Greatest of All Time territory without MVP awards. But the MVP award was in serious jeopardy of losing its relevance if it had once again failed to attach itself to the transparently best player in the world. Debates over "value" are pedantic and vapid in the face of Mike Trout's prowess and were pushing the MVP award dangerously close to occupying the space currently held by the Miss America Award, the vice presidency and the AFC South champion.

Congratulations, AL MVP award, for winning Mike Trout. And saving yourself.

Mike Trout Update: He's #2

Mike Trout is #1 in almost any measure you want to examine. At .318/.441/.559 and 27 steals from the center field position he's the runaway best player in baseball this year, though the writers might once again fail to award him the AL MVP. 

But in one respect he's merely #2.

In his age 24 season, his fifth year of Major League ball, Mike Trout has now surpassed 994 of the 995 gentlemen who have ever played for the Angels franchise in career WAR.

In just five seasons, Trout has amassed 48 WAR for the Angels. Jim Fregosi, who played 11 seasons for the California Angels and who earned MVP votes in eight of them, managed 45.

Tim Salmon, who played his entire 14-season career for the Anaheim Angels, and crushed 30+ homers four times, accounted for 41 WAR.

Only Chuck Finley, a 14-year Angels veteran with 165 wins for the club, stands precariously ahead of Trout in nearly three times as many seasons of service. He'll fall to second by next All-Star break. 

But order is restored to the universe in this sense: Trout's first five seasons establish him as the greatest player of all time, so far.

No one matches his accomplishments by age 25; no one matches his accomplishments in their first five seasons. Not Ty Cobb, not Mickey Mantle, not Joe DiMaggio or Willie Mays or Walter Johnson or Christy Matthewson or Marv Throneberry.

Trout isn't the best hitter ever during that period -- Williams is -- but with a 170 OPS+ he's second. He's not the best base runner or fielder or slugger. But he's among the greatest in all those categories and they add up to #1.

Right where he belongs. Don't let the fact that his teammates stink confuse you.

The Highly Uncoveted Mid-Season MVP Awards

You're probably tired of hearing this, but Angels center fielder Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. 

As he's done since his debut, he's playing every day and hitting for a high average, walking with the league leaders, popping lots of extra base hits, stealing bases at high efficiency, running the bases like a dervish and mastering a key defensive position. 

In other words, Mike Trout is among the five or ten best in the world at every aspect of baseball.

This year, Trout is hitting .323/.427/.567 with 18 home runs and 15 of 16 thefts. He paces the Junior Circuit in on-base percentage. Various measuring systems have him leading the AL in WAR, at 5.7. 

Halfway through the season, there's your AL MVP.

That's no slight against other players performing similarly. The Astros' Jose Altuve is a superb second baseman leading the AL in batting average and powering up more than ever. He's swiped 23 of 26 bases. It's a rich compliment to be described as "nearly as great as Mike Trout."

David Ortiz leads the league in slugging and OPS. He's on pace for more than 100 extra bases. What a valedictory season for Big Papi. But he's no asset on the basepaths or in the field, and so no serious candidate for MVP.

Not like Josh Donaldson, the slick-fielding Blue Jays' hot cornerman who has the best case against Trout. At .301/.415/.590 with 22 HR and five of five steals, the only "knock" against his candidacy is positional.

Kudos as well to Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, Red Sox shortstop Xander Boegarts and Mariners keystoner Robinson Cano. All deserve serious consideration for this mythical award that is not coveted in any way.

In the senior circuit it's much more of a muddle. Kris Bryant (.280/.379/.575) is the slick fielding sophomore Cubs third baseman who leads the league in big flies. Washington's Daniel Murphy (.349/.388/.593) is harder to replace at second base, except for below-average glove work. The Rockies' Nolan Arenado (.290/.363/.577) mimics Bryant's profile but adjusting for the high altitude mattes his luster. Matt Carpenter (.298/.420/.568) and solid keystone defense for the Cardinals also has a claim. 

At this point, Bryant has the edge according to WAR, but one hot week from someone else could wipe it out. 

Take your pick, or consider D'backs third baseman Jake Lamb (.298/.371/.615), who leads the league in slugging and extra base hits, but gets some help from Bank One Ballpark. If Lamb is your favorite, your MVP is a guy who didn't even make the All-Star team.

Good thing for all of them Madison Bumgarner only bats every fifth day.

Let's take a look at two fascinating Cy Young races next time.

Random Observations From An Unhinged Mind

Stuff floating around my brain with nowhere to go...

This is the year of the flexfielder. Ben Zobrist has made a career of playing everything but the battery. This year Cubs slugger Kris Bryant has donned an outfield glove, an infield glove and a first baseman's mitt. The Cardinals are talking about moving Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter about the infield in order to keep shortstop Aledmys Diaz on the field.

The Royals lost two stars for extended periods on this one play. Then they lost their star catcher for a month. Then they stormed back from a 7-1 ninth inning deficit to defeat the division leader. They're just different.

Ryan Howard has more strikeouts than total bases. This is very hard to do. You need to start with a .172 batting average. Don't try this at home: this man is a professional.

You know how you have to get to a great pitcher early or you miss your chance? New research shows that's poppycock. In fact, almost every pitcher in history was worse the third time through the order, than the first time through, even though he generally had to be having a good day in order to still be in the game the third time through. 

 Are dominant starters more dominant than ever or am I just now noticing it?  Look at this:
Clayton Kershaw -- 7-1, 1.56; 5BB/105K
Jake Arrieta -- 9-0, 1.72; 21BB/67K
Chris Sale -- 9-1, 2.26; 14BB/69K
Madison Bumgarner -- 6-2, 2.12; 22BB/83K
Noah Syndergaard -- 5-2, 1.87; 9BB/79K

A 21-1 K-BB ratio for Kershaw? These are video game numbers.

Big Papi is halfway to matching the WAR of the greatest final season ever before retiring. (Shoeless Joe Jackson earned 7.6 WAR in his final season but he was banned mid-career, not retired. Roberto Clemente earned 4.8 WAR before dying in a plane crash.) At 2.3 WAR, he's closing in on Jackie Robinson (4.5 WAR), Barry Bonds, 3.4 WAR), Hank Greenberg (3.4 WAR), and Ted Williams (3.0). As of Memorial Day. Big Papi was hitting .339/.420/.720, leading the league in OBP, SLG, doubles and RBI.

Mike Trout's 150th home run last week added his name to a list of 18 players who have stroked 150 home runs before age 25 season. Two things to note here:
1. Trout has two-thirds of that season to add to his total.
2. Home run hitting is not his signature skill.

Home field advantage has gone all woolly mammoth on us. Fourteen of the 30 teams have winning road records, including Arizona, which is 8-18 at home. It doesn't include Colorado, which is .500 on the road and a losing record at home; or Atlanta, which is a mortifying 4-20 at Turner but 10-14 away from it.

In the decade of the shift, recent research shows batters actually have higher batting averages when shifted against -- but slug for fewer bases. It sounds as if they are purposely hitting the ball the other way through the hole left for them, but in effect sacrificing opportunities to hit for power. On aggregate, shifts have not been effective. Which means calls for prohibiting them is even dumber than you thought.

Royals rookie Cheslor Cuthbert hails from Little Corn Island about 43 miles east of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. His home is a mile square. A tropical rain forest, it gets 170 inches of rain a year. Although residents of a Spanish-speaking country, Corn Islanders are English-speaking. A natural Royal, Cuthbert is a direct descendant of the last king of eastern Nicaragua. 

In a game on Saturday, Russell Martin, who had managed just four extra base hits all season, ripped a game-tying double to the wall against Craig Kimbrel, who had allowed just three extra base hits all season. It was Kimbrel's second blown lead of the game, about what he normally does in half-a-season.

Mike Trout Is About To Pass Nolan Ryan

Every month I attend presentations of my industry trade group's local chapter. Speakers come from out of town and often tell us what we already know but haven't been doing, at least not optimally. I often walk away with a renewed commitment to do some old thing better.

We should likewise check in now and then on the centrifugal force that is Mike Trout. Now in his fifth Major League season at age 24, Trout is #5 on the WAR chart for all who have worn the uniform of the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels of Anaheim, California. 

Or Is He Fourth?
Read fast, because by the time you are done, he might be fourth. He's a sliver of a win behind Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan, who pitched eight seasons for the then-California Angels.

Or third. He's a larger fraction of a win behind Tim Salmon, whose entire 14-year career was spent with the club, first with California, then with Anaheim, and at the end with Los Angeles of Anaheim.

Being Mike Trout in 2016
Through May 4, Trout was hitting .317, slugging seven homers, sparkling in center field and accounting for about two wins against replacement. At the rate he's going he'll conclude the season in second place all-time among Angel players, leapfrogging Jim Fregosi along the way. It'll take a sixth campaign to overtake Chuck Finley for first place, but that's getting ahead of ourselves.

We don't want to gaze off into the forest and neglect appreciating the mighty redwood standing before us. Or maybe it should be the ocean and the mighty Trout.

Wouldn't It Be Great...

Dreaming of the upcoming season. Wouldn't it be great if...

Someone did a home run dance in the sixth inning of a 7-2 game . . . and no once paid any attention? You want to stop gratuitous celebrations? The sound of one hand clapping would do it.

A batter laid down a bunt to break up a no-hitter in the ninth inning of a 3-0 game, invoking the ire of the opposing team and leading to a plunking, a two-base error and a double that tied the game and unwrote the unwritten rule?

Ken "Hawk" Harrelson retired and someone who knew something about baseball in the 21st century replaced him? Then fans on Chicago's South Side would have at least one thing to celebrate this year.

Umpires ordered batters to stop fooling around and get in the box and demanded that pitchers serve up the ball within 20 seconds as required by the rules? And games started moving along?

Jake Arrieta really is as good as the second half of last season? Because that would mean that in 2016 he'd allow a .409 OPS and an ERA of 0.75. He'd allow four home runs all season.

A fan bopped by a batted ball admitted it was their own damn fault for not paying attention?

The players on a last place squad began extolling the team's chemistry? Funny, you never hear that.

Someone connected to a club 10 games under .500 announced that his team had just acquired "momentum" and then they went out and won 13 of the next 15 games? Then we

would finally have one verifiable example of the spirit magic that gives rise to that term.

Baseball writers and announcers all had to take a course and pass an exam on new analysis and be able to explain triple-slash stats, Fielding Independent Pitching, True Average, BABIP and Wins Against Replacement? That way fans would learn about them and we would all better understand the game.

Baseball announcers, particularly play-by-play guys (as opposed to analysts) had to pass an oral communication exam? Then we would stop hearing idiotic phrases like "controlling their own destiny," grounds rule double, and "second-chance opportunities."  (Destiny cannot be controlled and chances are opportunities.) Announcers would understand basic sentence structure, common idioms, proper usage and diction, and generally sound like experts in communication rather than like Norm Crosby.

Mike Trout did it again, and then again and again through age 30?  He'd have 96 WAR with half his career ahead of him.

We Interrrupt This Broadcast For Mike Trout, 2015 Edition

What do Steve Garvey, Paul Blair, Tim Wakefield, Frank Howard, Bill Mazeroski, Rick Wise, Pie Traynor, Frank White, Brady Anderson and Tom Gordon have in common?

It's the same characteristic shared by Joe Adcock, Harvey Haddix, Willie McGee, Ron Gant, Bobby Thompson, Rick Monday, Pat Hentgen and Rico Carty.

They were all very accomplished Major League Baseball players. They all played 14 or more seasons at the highest level.

And they all earned fewer wins against replacement than Mike Trout -- who is only 23.

Trout has now led the league in WAR each of his first four seasons. He's won a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three second place MVP finishes. He should have been first each time.

Trout this year slugged 41 home runs and led the AL in slugging percentage, OPS and True Average. He plays a key up-the-middle position. You've seen the highlight reel.

Trout's lifetime TAv is .352. That means, if you see the world through batting average lenses, put all of Mike Trout's attributes together and he's a .352 kind of guy. Willie Mays, over his career, was a .339 kind of guy.

Mike Trout is the same flavor as Willie Mays. Plus sprinkles.

So don't feel too badly for Shawn Green, Derek Lowe, Ken Griffey Sr., B.J. Surhoff, Rick Sutcliffe, Barry Zito, Ted Kluszewski, Richie Hebner, Smokey Burgess and Garry Maddox.

And quit your sniggling Lou Brock, Vida Blue, Gil Hodges, Rusty Staub, Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Jack Morris, Dizzy Dean and Rocky Colavito. You're next!

It's Mike Trout and It's Not That Close

For the fourth consecutive year -- indeed, for the only four years of his career -- Mike Trout will finish in the top two in the MVP race. Also for the fourth time, he should finish first, ahead of a star with bigger traditional numbers. And for the third time, he might finish second.

Josh Donaldson has produced a monster season for the Blue Jays, hitting .298 with 41 homers and a league-leading 123 RBI. He's scored a league-pacing 122 runs too. His OBP-SLG of .373/.571 places him second in the AL in OPS.

Behind Mike Trout, whose .299-41-90 with 104 runs scored and a .400-.588 OBP-SLG gives him 44 points more of OPS.

Here's the comparison, with league-leading numbers in bold.
Trout            .299-41-90   104R .402/.590/.992 176 OPS+ .353 TAv
Donaldson  .297-41-123 122R .370/.569/.939 155 OPS+ .323 TAv

In other words, Donaldson leads in team events because he bats in the middle of that historically-potent Blue Jays lineup. Trout leads in measures of individual excellence.

Both are superb base runners who have not applied that to base stealing. Donaldson has swiped all six of his attempts. Trout, once a 40-steal guy, is just 11 of 18. That's a ding against Trout.

Both light up the web gems highlight reel. Donaldson is generally considered even more special at his position than Trout is at his, but Trout plays the more critical CF to Donaldson's hot corner.

Factoring in their ballparks and strength of opposing pitchers, Trout has produced 8.7 offensive wins for his team, 13% more than Donaldson's 7.7, according to Baseball Reference. Baseball Prospectus has the gap even wider, and rates Trout the better fielder too.

Sentiment had shifted toward Donaldson as he and Toronto heated up while Trout and the Of Anaheims cooled in August. But the tables turned some in September/October as Trout humped it up and his team hung in the playoff race until the last day. Of course, the performance of his teammates should be of no consequence to a player's MVP candidacy: it's not up to him whether the nine wins he adds are wins 71-79 or wins 87-95.

So a voter could cast his vote for Josh Donaldson for 2015 AL MVP and that would be a perfectly reasonable choice. No one could argue that Donaldson didn't deserve it for the quantum leap he's taken this year following his shocking trade from Oakland. It's just that Trout is clearly the better candidate, not by a significant margin, but by enough that everyone ought to recognize it.

All Star Observations

The All-Star game is an exhibition but real life intrudes with every pitch.

For starters, there's Royals manager Ned Yost, exhorting his charges pre-game to play as if it mattered, because it might, as his personal testimony could attest. Last season, KC stood seven games out at the ASB, yet returned home for the seventh game of the World Series thanks to an American League victory.

Which they lost, demonstrating that even in the unlikely event that your team runs the gauntlet to the Fall Classic, and in the even more unlikely event that the series goes seven games, even then, the advantage conferred upon the home team is barely worth noting. 

The All-Star game is still a game, and ballers are still ballers. Did you notice how Bryce Harper adjusted his position in the batter's box with two strikes on him? That's one reason he has grown into his talent and now plays the part of George Washington in today's NL Mount Rushmore. In the same inning, Adam Jones, who possesses the same wealth of talent, swung at two balls down and off the plate on the way to a strikeout. That's about the only reason Jones has made a mint in the game, but won't pose for any monuments.

The introduction of elderly Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Sandy Koufax and an aging Johnny Bench was a stirring addition to the opening ceremonies. Kudos to MLB for its promotion of the four greatest living players vote.

Lost in the years since the playing days of Aaron and Mays, who stand a head taller than anyone else who might join them in the top four, is that both were sons of the South who overcame racist hatred with aplomb and helped smash the race barrier. They are not just all-time great ballplayers; they have been great men. Let's not forget it.

Meanwhile, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux and others had to be scratching their heads about Koufax. The Left Arm of God was almighty during the final six years of his career, winning three pitching triple crowns and three Cy Youngs, averaging 22-8, 2.19 and 286 strikeouts. But in his other six seasons he averaged 6-7, 4.10 with 114 strikeouts and more than half as many walks.

Seaver flummoxed batters from age 22 to 40, earning three Cy Youngs and six other top five finishes. His 106 career WAR is twice that of Koufax. The record is nearly identical for Maddux, whose peak was slightly higher but who tailed off more before retiring.

Bob Gibson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson also have strong cases against Koufax. Longevity and consistency matter: Koufax was a phenomenon, but far short of the greatest living pitcher.

The rule that every team gets an All Star representative is less popular than Congress, but its impact was minimal this year. Even the worst teams -- Milwaukee with KRod, Philly with Papelbon (or Hamels), Colorado with Arenado and Tulo, Boston with Holt (or Bogaerts), Oakland with Gray and Vogt and so on, provided legitimate candidates. 

The biggest stretch is probably Justin Upton representing the Padres, hitting .253 with 14 dingers. But Upton has a history of good play, faces a daunting ballpark for hitting and offers excellent outfield defense and 17 of 18 steals.  There's not much to complain about there.

Hearing Bryce Harper laud Mike Trout's speed burst around third was priceless. It'd be like Carlos Santana marveling at Eric Clapton's axe grinding.

If Ryan Braun can get selected to an All-Star game, it's time to drop the artifice and welcome Pete Rose back into the game; fold up the placards decrying Alex Rodriguez; and elect Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and the rest into the Hall of Fame. Instead of bestowing such an honor on that unapologetic disgrace, the NL manager should select Braun's cynical spin doctors, handlers and script writers.

Where Are the All-Time Greats?

A recent spate of Hall of Fame retirements has transformed today's Major Leagues from a repository of the enshrined to a roster of stars whose exact composition is a mystery. Players who are Hall of Fame locks right now number three: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki and Miguel Cabrera.

Compare that to 10 years ago when Alex Rodriguez could have cruised into Cooperstown with hardly a dissenter. Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Derek Jeter, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Greg Madduz, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine were all dancing their waltzes into baseball history.

Purely on the merits, of course, ARod is a no doubter, just as Bonds and Clemens were. The forecast for any of them seeing their bust carved is partly dubious with a chance of impossible. Illicit performance boosting may also work against the borderline case of David Ortiz. Infielders Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre have to rate as probably nots, barring late career second acts (or third acts in Beltre's case.) Carlos Beltran's candidacy depends on how much voters have evolved to appreciate all-around skills, and then which way their coins toss.

Of course, there are some mid-career probablies out there. You have to like Buster Posey's chances, particularly if he can remain behind the plate. On top of his lifetime .300+ batting average, he owns a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three World Championships. In his sixth season, at age 28, Posey is at it again, posting a .314 TAv.

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Craig Kimbrel are on promising trajectories as well, though Kimbrel has been lit up in 16 innings this year and Kershaw's powers seemed to have disappeared, Samson-style, with the loss of his hair, in his case facial. Those last three names illuminate how wanting the Majors are today in pitching greatness. The top active hurling careers belong to Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter and Joe Nathan, fine moundsmen all, but hardly bronze material.  Other than King Felix, there will not be a single legitimate pitching candidate for a decade or so after the current backlog clears out.

Then there is Yadier Molina, who needs to keep hitting in the sunset years of his career to be considered this generation's Ivan Rodriguez. Twenty-nine-year-old Evan Longoria has a shot if he returns to the form of his first five full seasons. Joey Votto would have to maintain that consistent excellence for another decade to earn Hall stripes.  And we can always dream on the second and third-year players like Puig, Cespedes, Harvey, Abreu and their ilk. But potential outnumbers fruition by a healthy margin.

Experience tells us that a couple of those named will slide off the list, just as Nomar Garciaparra, Tim Lincecum and Joe Mauer did. And others will climb on, following a path paved by Paul Molitor and Sandy Koufax, to name two. Still, it's likely that the ballot clogging now vexing Hall of Fame voting will not be an issue a decade or two from now.

Mid-April Noodlings

Chris Colabello led the Majors with nine doubles for the Twins at this point last season. He was batting .361. The big first baseman finished the season with 13 two-baggers while batting .229. He’s not on the roster this April.

Nelson Cruz has more homers in five games last week than the Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, and Indians each have all season.

The Yankees’ lineup on April 14: Jacoby Ellsbury, CF; Chase Headley, 3B; Carlos Beltran, RF; Mark Teixeira, 1B; Brian McCann, C; Garrett Jones, DH; Stephen Drew, 2B; Chris Young, LF; Didi Gregorius, SS. That includes one player from the team two years ago, and that was Mark Teixeira, who played most of that season for the Disabled List.

Aaron Harang is pitching in his 14^th season in the Majors. He’s won 123 games, earned 23 pitching wins against replacement, collected $60 million and hit like a girl. His .091/.100/.107 includes four walks and 278 strikeouts. In about a season’s worth of at-bats he has cost his teams four losses at the plate. 

With his first home run of the season, and the 155^th of his six-year career, Giancarlo Stanton became the career leader for the Florida Marlins, passing Dan Uggla. That’s the fewest to lead any franchise, but it won’t be for long. Once Stanton reaches 164, he will pass San Diego’s all-time leader, Nate Colbert. The only other active team leader is Evan Longoria with 185 for Tampa Bay.

On April 17, Mike Trout became the youngest player to 100 home runs and 100 steals, breaking Alex Rodriguez’s record by two months. Trout is more than three months shy of his 24^th birthday. The list of players to 100 homers faster than Trout – 10 in all – includes six Hall of Famers, one HOF-worthy (ARod), one future HOFer (Giancarlo Stanton) and two good players -- Tony Conigliaro and Andruw Jones. And hitting home runs isn’t Trout’s signature skill.

Diamondback hurler Josh Collmenter might want to retire now. He became the first pitcher to complete a game in 2015 with a four-hit whitewashing of the defending champs last night. He also threw the first shutout in baseball this year. He also piled up three hits, a run scored and an RBI.

We Interrupt This Program for Mike Trout

That Albert Einstein feller was good at physics. The world was aware of this before the Nobel Prize committee tapped him in 1921. Likewise, this Mike Trout dude can play baseball. You probably noticed before the 2014 MVP was bestowed, unanimously, upon him.

Trout is 23. He's three years younger than Jacob deGrom, whose Rookie of the Year trophy still looks nice on his mantle. deGrom's three wins against replacement place him just 25 short of Trout's 28.

Here is a list of Major League Baseball performers with fewer career WAR than Mike Trout:

• Paul Konerko
• Hal McRae
• Billy Wagner
• Alfonso Soriano
• Mo Vaughn
• Clete Boyer
• Prince Fielder
• Chris Chambliss
• Mike Cuellar
• Benito Santiago

Here's the fun part: 2014 was Trout's worst season. In his worst season, he led the league in runs, RBIs and total bases, slugged 36 homers, batted 35 points above league average, ran the bases like a fiend and leaped tall buildings in a single bound.

2014 lagged offensively. Teams averaged a meager 4.18 runs per game. In 2007, teams averaged 4.95 runs. According to Grant Bisbee of SB Nation, converting Trout's season to 2007 terms gives us the following:

• Trout pounds out a 42-143-.321 Triple Crown line.
• He smacks 46 doubles and 11 triples.
• He scores 148 times.
• He posts a 1.044 OPS.
• In the worst year of his career.
• Wait 'til he improves.

This concludes this test of the Mike Trout broadcasting system. If Mike Trout had actually improved in 2014, you would have been instructed where to tune in your area for news and official information. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming...

Will Mike Trout Be the Best Ever?

You can't write about Major League Baseball these days without writing repeatedly about Mike Trout. It would be like leaving out Mozart from a history of classical music. Trout, after all, has already in his young career reached heights no one else has seen in the game's 130-year history.

Mike Trout authored the greatest age-20 season of all time, batting .326 with 30 homers, scoring 129 runs, swiping 49 of 55 bases and intercepting everything in center field. He followed that with the greatest age-21 season of all time, somehow increasing his OPS 25 points. He was the world's most spectacular player (and the AL's most valuable, though not the Most Valuable) each of his first two seasons. He is the greatest player through age-21 ever to play the game.

Consider this: Before he's even celebrated his 22nd birthday, Mike Trout has produced 21 wins against replacement at the highest level of baseball on the planet. That's more than Carl Everett, a two-time All-Star who hit a commendable .271/.341/.462 with 202 homers and 107 stolen bases, produced in his entire career. Mike Trout has had Carl Everett's entire career before most great players even get a Major League call-up.

In fact, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has determined that Mike Trout has had the greatest  career of all time through age-22 -- even though he hasn't played his age-22 season yet. He could literally play at replacement level for the Angels in 2014 -- we're talking something like .240/.300/.380 with average defense and 12 steals --  and still be considered the greatest 22-year-old ballplayer of all time. (We would re-assess him if he were that bad, but you get the point.)

Fortunately for us, nothing short of a season-ending injury in Spring Training will prevent Mike Trout from producing value in 2014. Fangraphs' Steamer projections system, which tends to be conservative with superstars, projects for Trout .306/.401/.522, 26 homers, a very pessimistic 31 of 43 steals, and about eight more wins above replacement. 

So Mike Trout is a certain Hall of Famer and is knocking on Babe Ruth's mansion to claim the Best of All Time trophy, right? In the words of the sage philosopher Quick Draw McGraw, "now just a doggone minute there, Babalooie."

Consider the plight of Cesar Cedeno, the Mike Trout of the '70s. Cedeno burst onto the scene from the Dominican at age 19 in 1970 flashing speed, power and potential. In 90 games in that rarely-mourned cavern called the Astrodome, Cedeno laid down a .310/.340/.451 with 17 steals in half a season for Houston. He regressed a bit at age-20, but then broke out the following two years, hitting .320, averaging 37 doubles, 23 homers, 55 steals and 7.7 wins against replacement. Entering the 1974 season, 23-year-old Cedeno was at the top of everyone's "next superstar" list, the top power/speed merchant since Mantle and Mays.

It's not as if Cedeno disappointed. Over the next four years he averaged .352 OBP, 35 doubles/triples, 18 homers, 56 steals and 5.2 wins against replacement. Through his age-26 season, he had collected four All-Star berths, five Gold Gloves, and 40 WAR. He was a star, just not quite a superstar.

And then the wheels came off -- or at least one wheel. Surgery following a bad knee injury cost him most of 1978 and limited his effectiveness thereafter. Cedeno never again stole 50 bases, never again hit even 11 homers, and missed at least a third of games in five of his remaining eight seasons. It's a cautionary tale for Trout and his fans.

Cedeno's tale of the tape is a study in excellence. He smacked 199 home runs, nearly 500 doubles/triples, added 550 steals and hit 23% above average while patrolling the vast center pasture. His 53 lifetime WAR ties him with Fred McGriff and places him a few spots above Lance Berkman, Mickey Cochran and Luis Gonzalez. 

Almost anyone would envy Cedeno's career, but not Mike Trout. Trout is aiming well-above 259th on the WAR list and so are his fans, which should include every baseball in North America. Now in year three, we'll be watching to see if he transitions from phenom to marvel and avoids the plight of players like Cesar Cedeno.

The AL MVP: 2012 Redux

Should we hold it against an MVP candidate that he hit just .265 with two extra base hits in September crunch time? How about that he did most of his damage before the All-Star break? Or do we acknowledge that a great May (when he hit .379 with 21 extra base hits) helps his team win just as much as a big finish? Isn't the MVP award a referendum on an entire season, irrespective of the chronology of the performance?

Miguel Cabrera led the league in batting average, on-base average, slugging percentage and OPS. He hit 44 home runs, second most in the American League. He batted .635/.850/.1.375 on 3-1 counts (40 of 'em) and .397/.529/.782 with runners in scoring position. His 2013 performance has been historic, especially in light of his 2012 domination.

So forget about his anti-climatic last month. The reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't the American League MVP is that over the course of the season, he wasn't the best player.

Yes, here we go again.

Whether Cabrera is the best hitter in the world is about as debatable as whether the U.S. has too much debt. He's hit .338 with 88 homers and 276 RBI with an OPS over 1000 over the past two seasons. (The debt, on the other hand, is hitting 20 trillion.) Baseball is more than hitting, though. It's baserunning and defense too, and Cabrera is below average in both areas. He's among the league leaders in grounding into double plays and waddles the extra base less often than most men on base. On defense, well, he's a world-class hitter. If we put his defense and baserunning in batting average terms, Cabrera would be a .240 baserunner and a .220 fielder at third.

There's an MVP candidate -- Mike Trout, of course -- who, like MIguel Cabrera, is a terror at the plate. He's hit .323/.431/.554 this year. Where Cabrera has performed 98% above average at the plate, Trout has performed 78% better.  That's a big difference. But there's a gaping chasm between Trout and Cabrera in the other aspects of the game. Trout has stolen 33 bases in 40 tries, among baseball's best. The nascent base running metrics suggest he's elite at taking the extra base as well. 

In the field, Trout is enough of a hit-killer to patrol the critical central pasture. The defensive difference between a mediocre center fielder and a mediocre third baseman is as wide as Cabrera himself. Trout is rated anywhere between just another guy and God's gift to turf by the computers, the scouts and the highlight reels. Even by the least generous accounting, Miguel Cabrera can't pack Trout's lunch with the glove.

Add it all up, divide by the level of competition they face, multiply by generosity of their home park and you get this: Mike Trout has been the most valuable to his team this year. Consider three different measuring systems using wins against replacement:

Baseball-Reference
Trout     9.1
Cabrera  7.1. 

Baseball Prospectus
Trout     10.3
Cabrera  7.4

Fangraphs 
Trout     10.2 
Cabrera  7.7

By some accounting, Cabrera isn't even the second-best player in the league this year. Josh Donaldson, Oakland's slick-fielding third baseman, has hit .302/.383/.502 with 24 homers in that trench in Oakland. Baseball-Reference has him nearly a run more valuable than Cabrera. They also rate the Atlas of New York, Robinson Cano, at 7.6 WAR for his .313/.383/.514 performance from the keystone. 

Other legitimate candidates include Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis (.287/.370/.634 with 53 homers), Texas cornerman Adrian Beltre (.315/.372/.506 with 29 HR) Boston DH David Ortiz (.308/.395/.565 and 30 HR), Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis (.281/.363/.487 with 29 of 36 steals) and Blue Jay diamond-crosser Edwin Encarnacion (.272/.370/.534 with 36 HR). Season with pitchers if you like, but they have their own award.

Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League again this year and it isn't particularly close. In the voting that actually bestows the award, if the race is between the tortoise, Cabrera, and the hare, Trout, we know how it will end. Because there is still a majority of sportswriters whose version of baseball is a fairy tale.

Next time, the NL MVP.

Here We Go Again

It's happening again. 

Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.

How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.

(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)

Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.

That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.

Again.

Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.

Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.

Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge. 

This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion. 

Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.

Again.