Jamie Moyer By the Numbers

Jamie Moyer, who played Little League during the Nixon Administration and made his Major League debut before 10 of his teammates were born, has been named the #2 starter for Colorado this season.

Moyer turns 50 in November and is coming off arm surgery that devoured his 2011 season.

If he pitches 100 innings, gets a win , or pitches a complete game, he will topple some long-held records. See here.

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What's A Weak Hitter Worth?

You may have noticed that someone named Jonathan Lucroy recently agreed to an $11 million, five year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. No deadly weapons were aimed threateningly at GM Doug Melvin's head, which surely had you shaking yours. Lucroy, after all, is a second-year backstop with a .260 batting average, 16 home runs in 700 at bats and no particular minor league pedigree.

Isn't professional sports truly the land of lottery tickets? Should Melvin instead have gifted his young catcher a hearty backslap and an expression of confidence that he'd be employed in the Majors in five years?

Perhaps surprisingly, the answer is, probably not. This is a deal with high upside and relatively little risk, which you can expect to see repeated league-wide.

In his first full season, Lucroy hit .265/.312/.391 last year for the Brewers. It's not exactly fantasy owner heaven, but it's slightly above average at catcher. Lucroy gets high marks for his skills in shin guards and at 25 can reasonably be expected to improve.

Without any behind-the-plate prospects on the farm, Milwaukee has locked up its backstop for the half decade he is most likely to excel. They are promising Lucroy roughly what he would earn during his pre-arbitration years and roughly what he'd earn in arbitration thereafter if he maintains his performance -- a win or two over replacement. (If Lucroy exceeds that, he can earn an extra $2 million.)

The alternative would be to roll the dice and hope to get . . . whatever detritus is out there. When Buster Posey's season evaporated in a home plate collision last year, the Giants lost five wins and the Wild Card. His replacements hit hardly better than Posey in a cast.

Having established cost-certainty at catcher, Milwaukee can turn its attention to keeping its pitching assets -- most notably Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum, who qualify for free agency after this season.

So what's in it for Jonathan Lucroy, his wife and baby Ella? How about five guaranteed years of seven-figure paychecks? In the unlikely event that he turns into the next Mike Piazza, Lucroy can break the bank in 2018. Your wife would be okay with that, right?
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The 2012 Season, So Far

Dustin Ackley your AL batting champ? Who knew?

The first play-in game is in the books and it's everything we thought it would be. Seattle's anemic offense (2.45 runs per nine) tops just pitiful Oakland's (0.82).

It's nice to see Ichiro ahead again in the race for the batting title, at .800. All singles, as you'd have guessed. Ditto for Yoenis Cespedes, living up to Oakland's hopes with a .333/.500/.667 performance. He's got to cut down on the 324-strikeout pace though, or he'll never catch league-leading Ackley's 162-homer output.

King Felix's 272-inning pace with a 1.13 ERA screams Cy Young, even if he hasn't registered a decision all year. His .625 WHIP is historic, not to mention the envy of fantasy owners. It's the polar opposite of poor Andrew Carignan, the A's reliever on pace for 48 frames of 540 ERA ball and 162 losses. Are you sure he's not a Pirate?

Finally, games sure are moving quickly now that no one all season has issued a walk. Wait, the A's without a free pass? Did Billy Beane retire?

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The Final Standings As of March

For what it's worth, below are Baseball Prospectus's projections for the 2012 season.

Keep in mind that projections are not predictions. They are derived by aggregating the expected performances of each individual player and his projected playing time. Each player projection is a meld of his past performance and the experiences of players like them in the next year of their career.

BP runs a million season simulations and averages them for the numbers you see here.

NL East

Atlanta Braves            88  74  .543

Philadelphia Phillies    88  74  .543

Miami Marlins              87  75  .537

Washington Nationals 83  79  .512

New York Mets            78  84  .481

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals      88  74  .543

Milwaukee Brewers    86  76  .531

Cincinnati Reds          85  77  .525

Chicago Cubs              74  88  .457

Pittsburgh Pirates      72  90  .444

Houston Astros          62  100 .383

NL West

San Francisco Giants     86  76  .531

Arizona Diamondbacks  85  77  .525

Colorado Rockies           80  82  .494

San Diego Padres           79  83  .488

Los Angeles Dodgers      78  84  .481

AL East

New York Yankees           93  69  .543

Boston Red Sox              88  74  .543

Tampa Bay Rays              86  76  .525

Toronto Blue Jays           77  85  .474

Baltimore Orioles            73  89  .451

AL Central

Detroit Tigers          85  77  .519

Cleveland Indians     80  82  .494

Chicago White Sox   78  84  .481

Minnesota Twins      73  89  .451

Kansas City Royals    67  95  .414

AL West

Texas Rangers          99  63  .611

Los Angeles Angels   88  74  .543

Oakland A's               73  89  .451

Seattle Mariners       70  92  .432

The Texas projection shocks me, particularly losing C.J. Wilson and expecting a decline in performance from Josh Hamilton and perhaps some of the rest of the rotation. BP foresees big things from Japanese import Yu Darvish and the Texas offense, which it projects to outscore the Angels by 207 runs.


On the other end of the spectrum, it's hard to overstate how little the projection thinks of Houston. To lose 100 games, teams usually experience multiple breakdowns, injuries and unexpected bad play. This projection says the Astros will lose 100 if all goes according to plan. That means a bad season in Houston could mean 110 losses.


The projection sees the Yankees and Red Sox both crushing the ball, but New York doing a much better job of run prevention. (Andy Pettite's return makes little difference in that equation.) It also projects that the Blue Jays' pitching is even more odious than the Orioles', but less putrid than both the Twins' and Royals'. The system has little reverence for the AL Central in general.


With the departure of Roy Oswalt and serious regression from Vance Worley, BP sees the Phillies' rotation as a three-man All-Star Team. It rates the Giants' pitching staff as 19 runs superior, though that may all be ballpark.


These standings suggest rock-'em, sock-'em, top-to-bottom slugfests in the NL East and West, and a three-way dogfight in the NL Central. Not so much in the AL, where the projections, like the Watergate reporters, follow the money.
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Sabathia, Nova . . . Johan Santana?

Great news for the Mets from Florida: Johan Santana is flummoxing batters again and appears on track to reclaim his position as ace of the rotation.

Big shakers of salt always have to accompany teams to Spring Training, but it's an especially tasty development in Santana's case following Sept. 2010 shoulder surgery that kept him out of action all last year.

A few more starts like his six-inning domination of the full Cardinals lineup should have Met brass celebrating with Santana's agent. And asking him to waive his no-trade clause.

Consider the Mets' dilemma in lists.

Here's the list of reasons the Metroplitans have no chance to compete in the NL East this year:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. They stink.

Here' are the top 6 items on the Mets' 2012-2013 Christmas list.
1. Money to make payroll.
2. Money to clear debt.
3. Money to sign developing talent.
4. Money to sign key free agents.
5. Young talent.
6. Patient commitment to a rebuilding plan

Here's the list of items, after a new Madoff-related subpoena, that Sandy Alderson can most do without in 2012-2013:
1. An extravagantly expensive 33-year-old starter with health concerns and trade value.
2. Unwarranted expectations by fans that this is anything more than the developmental squad for the 2014 team.

The cash-strapped franchise owes Santana $49 million over the next two years, plus a $5.5 buyout on a $25.5 team option for 2014. The odds of that contract paying off, equal to the odds of anyone picking up that option, are still greater than the odds that the Mets will be competitive during its life. With Santana and some good breaks, the Mets avoid the cellar and/or win half their games. Without him, they flop, rehire some laid-off ticket sales guys and mine some prospects.That's why they need to trade Santana.


The question then is: who would relinquish emerging talent and commit a fat chunk of payroll to an aging, ex-star whose performance began slipping even before his body came apart? By 2010, his heater had cooled a few degrees to 90 mph and his strikeout rate had plummeted to 6.5/game. It was topping 9.0/game in his Twins heyday.


The answer is no one, which is why the Mets would have to kick back a hefty chunk of Santana's salary. Still, saving $15 million/year (minus the $400,000/year cost of his replacement), rather than unloading the full $25 million salary, is better than nothing. It frees up 40 Lucas Duda salaries and maybe helps find the next Lucas Duda or two. 

Now with two Wild Cards, everyone this side of the Astros thinks they're a pitcher away. A veteran squad with a rotation hole and a big bank account -- I'm looking at you Rangers, Yankees,  Red Sox, Cardinals, Marlins and even you Brewers -- might entertain a deal.


The key to a Met Renaissance is as much about whether the team is willing to trade the present for the future as it is about what they are able to get in those trades. As the oldest and least affordable of their chips, a seemingly healthy Santana should be at the top of that list.
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Feeling Chipper in Retirement

Good for Chipper Jones.

Knowing when to hang 'em up is a skill not well correlated with hitting a baseball. And if there's anything this future Hall of Fame third baseman knows, it's hitting a baseball. Even in the geriatric segment of his career, Chipper has continued to contribute with the bat.

Now, as he turns 40, Chipper has announced that 2012 will be his curtain call. This is a beautiful thing. He will enjoy a 162-game valedictory tour and retire as a lifelong Brave. That's six months of hosannas at 20 ballparks around the Majoirs. He will go out as a productive player to the last, or at the very least, as one who quit as soon as his skills ebbed. And he will go home with his body intact.

Chipper has admitted that he had to begin icing down after each game starting in 2009, at age 37. Not coincidentally, that's when his production slid from MVP-caliber to good. He has played in 140 games just once since turning 33 and he's missed more than 100 games the last two years. And while "statuesque" works for supermodels, it's not what the Braves want defensively from their third baseman.

So we will spend the 2012 season reviewing a gargantuan career. A World Series. An MVP. Seven All-Star appearances. Five years of 1,000+ OPS. The third most home runs -- 454 so far -- of any switch hitter in history. In his worst year (by OPS), Chipper hit 16% above average, walked nearly as often as he whiffed, slugged 30 homers and got aboard at a .362 clip. 

Why stain that legacy, hurting all the way? Congratulations to Chipper Jones for ending on an up note. As Bruce Springsteen said, we've got to get out while we're young.

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A Sterling Silva Career

The thoroughly eccentric career of Carlos Silva appears to have come to an end as he was cast out by the Boston Red Sox on St. Patrick's Day. If so, Silva's time in the majors will be remembered as a singularity.

Actually, to be accurate, Silva's career came to an end on August 1, 2011, following a magnificent half season for the Cubs. Unable to catch his breath after the first inning of a start, Silva went under the knife for a heart arrhythmia and has never been the same since. 

Not that he was ever the same before that.

Silva was drafted by the Phillies out of Venezuela in '96 and made his pro debut in '02. Featuring a fastball and sinker and little else, the results were excellent -- 5-0, 3.21 out of the pen. But there were troubling signs. A soft-tossing righty, Silva was relinquishing more than a hit-an-inning and fanning just four per game. Pitchers who aren't fooling batters sufficiently to whiff six or seven per nine rarely have long MLB careers.

What was keeping Silva successful was a plethora of ground balls. He allowed just four hits to leave the yard in 84 frames, and as long as he could keep that up, and the walks down, he had a chance to survive, even if it was a tightrope walk. The following season he gave up three more homers in just three more innings, his walk rate spiked to nearly four per game and he fired a dozen wild pitches. Not surprisingly, his ERA busted loose to 4.43 and his value tanked. Before the '04 season the Phils shipped him off to Minnesota -- the land of soft-tossers -- as part of a package for Eric Milton.

Score one for the Twins. Moved into the starting rotation, Silva surrendered more hits and more home runs and struck out even fewer -- a nearly inconceivable 3.4 per game. But he helped pace a staff of extreme control freaks, walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings. He contributed 14-8, 4.21 in a 4.50 ERA league and helped Minnesota win the Central.

Then it got crazy. As Silva added the pounds, he focused his control. In '05, he became just the second pitcher in more than 80 years to match his walk total in wins, with nine each. (In 1994, Bret Saberhagen walked just 13 batters en route to a 14-4 mark with the Mets. He gave up as many home runs as walks that year.) Despite torn knee cartilage, Silva (9-8, 3.44) teamed with Johan Santana and Brad Radke for an astonishing 5.53 K/BB ratio. It sounds great, but with just 77 KOs in 188 innings, Silva had little room to maneuver.

The next season the ball began flying out of the park and the ERA ballooned to 5.94. He got things back under control a bit in his walk year (13-14, 4.81) but Seattle inconceivably broke the bank for him (four years, $48 million) a move that contributed to GM Bill Bavasi's dismissal.

More homers, more walks, even fewer strikeouts and a 10-car pile-up of injuries, including a frayed rotator cuff that liquidated most of the '09 season, bedeviled Silva and he went 5-18, 6.80 over those two years, prompting the Mariners to enact the trade of broken toys with the Cubs for uncertified lunatic Milton Bradley. Seattle got hosed when Bradley broke down and Silva shocked the world. He jacked his strikeout rate 50% higher than normal (to nearly the Major League average)and delivered 13 quality starts in 16 tries. Using Seattle's money, the Cubs got half a season of Roy Halladay quality out of Carlos Silva.

The wheels came off in the second half of 2010, then the heart palpitations, then elbow tendinitis, then the Cubs gave him his walking papers and an $11.5 million severance. The Yankees took a look last year, but you know the end has arrived when a team breaks camp with the smoldering remains of a 280-pound right-hander and it's Bartolo Colon, not you. So Silva returned to Medina, MN to live off the last MLB check with his wife and two kids.

For his career, Silva's 70-70 record is probably generous given a 4.68 ERA. He struck out just four-a-game, but walked just 1.7, the fifth lowest career rate for a starter since 1950. (Bob Tewksbury, Brad Radke, Bret Saberhagen and Rick Reed rank ahead of him. Greg Maddux and Roy Halladay aren't far behind.) All the rest of that group pitched better, longer and managed to miss a bat now and then. Given what Silva evidently had to work with, he squeezed nine years and $54 million out of that lemon. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

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"I Had VCU In the Final Four Last Year"

Kentucky's versatility . . .North Carolina's "length" . . . Syracuse's interior defense without Melo . . . the perimeter game of Team X versus the 2-3 zone of Team Y . . . and on and on. A glut of basketball savants, "bracketologists" and coaching experts fill the airwaves these days with their gratuitous knowledge.

So how many of the hoops cognoscenti could even conceive of Lehigh beating Duke?  Norfolk State downing Missouri? Ohio U. ousting Michigan?

In all of the free market, nowhere are supply and demand more out of balance than in the market for sports "experts." Every ink-stained wretch, gabber and Twitmonger can fill your ears with the number of Drexel's top-100 wins, but for all the words they expend on the subject, not one of them can out-pick the chalkline on their bracket sheet.

There's nothing wrong with that, of course. The winds of fortune are more powerful than a seed line. It's the claims of expertise that are so silly.

Just once I'd like to hear an "analyst" refuse to pick winners because it's a fool's errand. Similarly, I'd like to see a local newscast in which the weather dude admits that your guess about the weather six days from now is as good as his.

I once broadcast the news on Sundays at a radio station that used a four-day forecast from a TV meteorologist who had failed to call in. I used his Saturday forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and regressed halfway to the mean for Wednesday. (A mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain around 50%, pretty much covers all bases.) An hour later, when he called in with the updated forecast, I told him what I'd done. This was his response:

"Yeah, that's what I do."

I like to keep that in mind when someone who can name the sixth man on Colorado State says something definitive about the NCAA tournament. Because until he tells me in advance that NC State, a bubble-team, is going to knock off Georgetown, a three-seed, all I hear is static anyway.
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Peyton Manning, Baseball-Style

You don't need 40,000 yards of insight to realize that the confluence of Peyton Manning's sore neck and the Colt's team disintegration is a happy coincidence for both, leading to an amicable divorce that serves both the team and the star well.

The usual arc of the story in which a championship vehicle temporarily loses its steering wheel is one of wobbling to a mediocre finish. In one sense, that's better luck, but in another, it's no Luck at all. The team's downward spiral is masked, unwarranted hope is kept alive and there's no #1 draft pick awaiting.

For Indianapolis, there is no denying the need for a total rebuild, the kind of no use to, and able to make no use of, an aging Peyton Manning. Manning is now free to choose the best spot for his golden parachute landing, and IF he is healthy -- the most momentous two letters in English -- to continue his historic career with opportunities to win more championships.

It got me thinking, who is the Peyton Manning of baseball? That is, which accomplished veteran is most in need of a new uniform where his departure would most aid his team?

The simple answer is that there is no baseball analogy for Manning; indeed, there might be no equivalent in all of sports, which is why the Colts dilemma has been such ubiquitous news for months. Still, we can draw some parallels. Here are a few:

Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins -- The Twins lost 99 games last year for two reasons: they didn't hit and they didn't pitch. This year, Francisco Liriano is back from injury and Mauer and Justin Morneau might be. Or they might not. Mauer played in just 82 games after knee surgery and lingering doubts about a 6'5" backstop. Morneau has played in 150 games in two years, suffering from a  string of injuries wired in parallel, including a pair of concussions that sidelined him for more than four months and four surgeries (neck, knee, foot, wrist) among other assorted cricks, cracks and creaks. 

The Target field denizens aren't going anywhere this year or probably next, the last two seasons Mauer will spend in his 20s. If he wants to contribute to a winner, he desperately needs to play elsewhere. Coincidentally, the Twinkles could use relief from that eight-year, $184 million albatross they signed Mauer to following his anomalous 2009 season (.365/.44/.587 ). Maybe then they'll be able to sign a pitcher or two who can actually break glass with his fastball.

David Wright, 3B, NY Mets -- For starters, Wright might like to be paid this year in American legal tender. Fred Wilpon's got some of that around here somewhere. Hey, here's some chit, a few hundred IOUs and a whole box of rubber checks. Oh wait, I also have this autographed Jose Reyes photo from his dreadlock days. That's gotta be worth four digits on Ebay if you act before the 2012 season starts.

If the Mets still exist during Mitt Romney's second term, perhaps they won't suck. For now, they just need to shed salary, and David Wright needs other kids to play with while he's still young (29) and carefree. Citi Field is sapping his power and masking his continuing tremendiosity. Even last year, laid up for 50 games and limited to a .254 B.A., he hit 14% above league average. 

Johan Santana, P, NY Mets --  Sorry Met fans, but Santana is the closest thing to Peyton Manning in MLB. After a string of great performances, he's missed a full season and his current health is a wild card. He's on the wrong side of 32 and he's already begun to decline. (After five seasons of 219+ innings, he's thrown 167, 199 and zero. After four seasons of 235+ strikeouts, he fanned 146 and 144 (and, of course, zero) for the Mets.)

The Mets' marketing department might be able wring a couple of Venezuelan Nights out of their lefty ace, but beyond that, does it really matter whether they win 70 games with Santana on the hill every sixth night or 65 games with Chris Schwinden? You bet it does! It makes a $79 million difference, that being the gap between Santana's remaining $80 million salary through 2014 (plus buyout) and what Schwinden would make if he manages to cling to a roster spot.

Houston, Pittsburgh, Seattle and the Cubs figure to be gawdawful this year as well, but they aren't holding any competent veterans hostage, so these three players strike me as the closest to Peyton doppelgangers in America's pastime. Good luck, Joe, David and Johan!

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More Intriguing Players for 2012

He was an All-Star last year, but Miguel Montero's name might still escape your notice. The Diamondbacks' catcher is one of the best in the game, after a second year of .282/.351/.469 performance with 18 jacks from behind the tools of ignorance.

Once Randy Johnson's personal backstop, the 215-pound Venezuelan contributed about four wins by himself to the Snakes' surprising division preeminence in 2011. With another NL West jumble this year among San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado, that makes him one of the more irreplaceable players.

If he keeps producing, that is. Entering his age-28 season, Montero should have a couple of more good years left in his squat, and the D-backs will need it or they'll be forced to play veteran Henry Blanco, who possesses neither the on-base skills nor the pop -- or for that matter the defensive skill -- of the man he understudies.

Arizona's 94-win season in 2011 required some unexpected performances, one of which was Gerardo Parra's. The speedy left field savant developed on-base acumen, the threat of theft and dazzling glove work all in the same year. Prior to last year's .292/.357/.422 performance with 15 of 16 steals and a Gold Glove, Parra had, well, demonstrated little talent for any of that. He hadn't hit for average or power, walked much, covered much ground in left or on the basepaths. In his third season, he doubled his home run output, added 38 points to his OBP, and reversed his incompetence in the base stealing department in which he got thrown out seven times while stealing six bases.

Standard projections suggest players who break out often regress to their mean, but Parra only turns 25 in May. To repeat atop the division, his team will need him to continue to progress, or at least consolidate the gains he made last season.

On the flip side, there's the case of Chase Utley. Once the king of the keystone riding the Hall of Fame rails, Utley has begun to run aground. His batting average and slugging percentage have slipped each of the last four years, with playing time and home run rate wilting in three of those seasons.

Concomitant regression by Ryan Howard, the departures of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, and the failure of Dominic Brown to blossom on schedule means the 100-win Phillies are suddenly vulnerable in the NL East. Halladay, Lee, Hamels & Co. remain a formidable rotation -- though minus Oswalt, no longer  historic -- but they are getting diminishing returns from the offense.

That's where a rebound by Utley would come in handy after being sidelined for weeks by patellar tendinitis. But he's 33 now and he seems to suffer from Roseanne Roseannadanna Disease -- it's always something. An injury-free season and a return to greatness at the plate could staunch some of the bleeding in Philadelphia. 

That's not usually the way to bet, health being a skill that Utley evidently lacks. But top performers like him retain their skill longer, and the projections forecast at least one more season of exemplary play, though without the gaudy home run total or the .300 average. Such a bounce-back would go a long way towards staving off the rest of the NL East.

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Series-O! The Newest Lottery

The new playoff regimen is a travesty, of course, built on the quicksand NBA model that cheapens the regular season beyond relevance. Baseball isn't yet at that point, but the vector points south.

For one thing, MLB sachems are now officially attempting to shoehorn seven months of baseball into six months, only five of which promise decent weather above the Mason-Dixon line. More importantly, it opens the lottery that is the post-season to more contestants.

I'm looking forward to the following scenario:

Team A, let's call them the Rays as an homage to my dad, rides a rotation stuffed with arms to the second-best record in baseball, just behind their division rivals, let's call them the Rose Hose. The Rays match their 96 wins against a vagabond outfit from a threadbare division, let's call them the Native Americans, whose 87 wins is simply the best of the rest.

The Native Americans cash in one good pitching performance and a wind-aided big fly to end the Rays' season. Three of five fluke victories over the 102-win Rose Hose later, they're in the league championship series having won just four times.

If MLB doesn't think that's an abomination, then it has the right formula. Unlike football and basketball, the better team doesn't win a whole lot more often than the lesser team in baseball. Adding two more -- weaker -- Wild Card teams intensifies the regrettable trend of creating two baseball seasons, the regular season and the playoffs. The regular season is no longer about winning anything, it's about accumulating the minimum number of wins to make the next round.
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How Washington Eliminates the Deficit

Having finally achieved Major League status after six years of bottom-feeding in the NL East, the Washington Nationals will sport some shiny new pitching along with their double-signed third-base hero, Ryan Zimmerman.

Coming off a down year -- when .289/.355/.483 and sterling defense from the keystone is a down year, it's time for your agent to rattle the corporate cage for an extension -- the face of the franchise inked a six-year, $104 million deal to kick in after the current three-for-$45 million contract winds down following next season. Zim missed 60 games in '11 due to abdominal surgery and was hamstrung (technically he was rectus femorised) upon his return, particularly in the throwing department. Three years earlier he missed 50 games with a torn labrum.

In between, Zimmerman has authored a curriculum vitae of 128 home runs, a 120 OPS+ and superb glove play over six years, dating back to his almost Rookie of the Year award, which Hanley Ramirez won on a hanging chad. His signing removes the stigma that Jayson (Not) Werth is the team's highest-paid performer.

Can the Nats expect better ROI on Zimmerman than on Werth? Almost certainly so, but that's setting the bar limbo low. Simply by stitching together previous achievements into one mosaic, Zimmerman is due for the kind of breakout that earns MVP votes. He's appeared in 162 games before. He's hit .307 before. He's walked 72 times, smacked 33 home runs and 47 doubles. He's won Gold Gloves, for whatever that's worth. Altogether, that's a .307/.400/.600 kind of campaign of which awards are made. Two or three of those seasons along with a handful more "average" Zimmerman years and the bill is paid in full with some value left over for Werth's below average flailing.

Baseball Prospectus's projections say the NL East is a coin flip in which everyone but the Mets gets a side. The Phillies are getting decrepit, the Braves stood still and the Marlins and Nationals visited the baseball team store and bought entirely new outfits. Washington picked out a smashing new pitching staff and Miami selected some lovely accessories, including a dreadlocked shortstop (which they had altered), a Gold Glove pitcher and a must-have closer (I know the price is ridiculous for a handbag, but I just love it!) Injuries, luck and a couple of unexpected performances could turn the division inside-out and backwards twice before the leaves start turning.

That means, of course, that no one player is responsible for his team's fate. But it's almost inconceivable that the Nationals can break through to the top without their new highest-paid ballplayer.

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Rolen Along To A Title

With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder out of the NL Central, the Cincinnati Reds have visions of a division title in 2012. To get there, they may be banking on a 37-year-old infielder whose shoulder woes last year limited him to 65 games, strangled his offense (.242/.279/.347) and drained his defense of added value. He's in the final year of a contract for his fourth team after things skittered to a close at his first two stops -- first because the home field was unkind to him and second because the manager was.

Maybe expecting a bounce-back is unrealistic, but Scott Rolen has surprised people for years.

Even in his dotage, last year was an outlier for Rolen. In 2010, he came to the Queen City and helped the Reds to the division crown by hitting .285/.358/.497 with 20 home runs in 133 games. The year prior, for Toronto and Cincinnati, and despite missing 35 games, Rolen contributed .305/.368/.455 and his usual sterling hot corner defense.

Before that, Scott Rolen was a Hall of Fame third baseman. If that doesn't square with your notion of him, consider this comparison:

Other third baseman: .267/.322/.401 with a 104 OPS+ and defense worth 14 runs above average/year.
268 homers, 1357 RBI, 1232 runs , 28 steals in 50 attempts over 23 seasons

Scott Rolen: .282/.366/.494 with a 123 OPS+ and defense worth 11 runs above average/year.
308 homers, 1248 RBI, 1185 runs, 116 steals in 164 attempts over 16 seasons

(OPS+ measures OBP + SLG as compared to league average, which is expressed as 100. A 123 OPS+ means Rolen is a 23% better hitter than league average.)

Rolen is not quite the wizard with the glove that the other player was, but he's no slouch in that department. And he's significantly more adept at every other part of the game, although for a shorter time. I looked at their peak five seasons, and the two players were pretty indistinguishable.

If he retired today, Scott Rolen could put his career up against Brooks Robinson's first-ballot Hall of Fame tenure without batting an eye. That sounds like a HOF case to me.

None of that, though, presages his 2012 contributions to the Reds. The hounding leg and shoulder issues, coupled with eight years remove from his offensive peak and the steady evaporation of his advantage afield, could mean that this year is nothing more than a swan song. It matters a great deal to the Reds, because the additions of Mat Latos to a handsome young rotation and Ryan Ludwick to an above-average offense could catapult this team into the post-season.

Milwaukee and St. Louis are wounded but remain formidable. Is Scott Rolen?

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Intriguing Players of the AL East

Almost certainly, 2011 was what the Milwaukee Brewers had in mind when they drafted Canadian high schooler Brent Lawrie in the first round. In just 150 at-bats, Lawrie smashed nine homers and eight doubles and posted a sterling .293/.373/.580 from the hot corner. That extrapolates to 36 homers, 32 doubles and 28 steals in 32 attempts over a full season.

Except, the Brewers didn't envision those results coming in Toronto. Milwaukee swapped Lawrie last year as part of the package that brought back Shawn Marcum and a division title. What Toronto got was the fifth youngest player in the majors in 2011, whose cumulative value to the Blue Jays was second on the team -- in a quarter of a season.

If Lawrie can recreate that kind of performance, and his minor league experience suggests he can, Mike Schmidt is making room for him in Cooperstown. Before he does, Lawrie will have to continue to impress for more than 171 plate appearances.

Lawrie's fellow rookie Blue Jay, catcher J.P. Arencibia, also presents a provocative profile. In 129 games, the 25-year-old Miamian pounded 23 long balls and not much else. Slow afoot and, it appears, to get the bat around, Arencibia hit just .219 and whiffed 133 times.

Arencibia is young, hit .301 in his last stint in the minors (Triple-A Las Vegas) and reached safely at about half the normal rate on ground balls, suggesting that some bad luck (and slow-motion running) may have been at work. On the other hand, contact skills like that don't generally wear well and the leash will be short. Minor league backstop sensation Travis D'Arnaud carved up Double-A last year.

Those are two more intriguing players I'll be watching in '12. A full season of breakout for the pair could catapult the Blue Jays into the playoff conversation with NY, Boston and Tampa.

J.J. Hardy's Babe Ruth imitation won't help the Orioles escape the AL East cellar, but another year of .269/.310/.491 with 30 bombs from the shortstop position won't hurt. Hardy has done this sort of thing before -- in '07 and '08, so it's no fluke, and his .273 batting average on balls in play hints at room for improvement. On the weak AL shortstop roster, a reprisal of last year's output makes Hardy Silver Slugger material.

Staying in the AL East, Kelly Shopach's batting average, OBP and slugging percentage have all steadily declined since he hit .261 with 21 homers in '08. If Shoppach's efforts for Boston tail off further from last year's .176/.268/.339 with Tampa, he'll be practicing his craft in Pawtucket. 

GM Ben Cherington and special consultant Bill James know that Shoppach's .212 batting average on balls in play makes less sense than most presidential candidates. They also know that Shoppach feasts on lefties and would look good in a platoon with switch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia. So there may be a last gasp or two left in the 33-year-old righty. As with Hardy, Arencibia and Lawrie, we'll soon find out.

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Thirty-five Years and Counting

There's a scene in Moneyball when Brad Pitt, playing Oakland GM Billy Beane, tells A's players that they should not bunt, and if the other team bunts they should just pick up the ball and throw to second for the out. "If your enemy is making mistakes, don't interrupt him," Beane says.

"I always wondered about that," exclaimed the sweet, blond wife who brings a book to the ballpark, on those rare occasions when she accompanies me to one. "Why do teams purposely make an out?"

And with that, my wife leaped over thousands of professional sportswriters and sports talk show hosts who are still thinking and talking about the game as if it were 1923. Simply by dint of watching this flawed and sometimes apocryphal movie, millions of Americans will know more about baseball than, say Mike Greenberg and Mike Golick, hosts of the most popular national sports radio show, or a Baltimore Sun reporter who wrote an article two years ago for my local paper about the struggles of Jeff Francoeur without ever mentioning walks or on base percentage.

Now that the calendar has flipped, we've moved another year clear of 1977, the year Bill James first published his Baseball Abstract debunking many of the myths that no longer permeate Major League Baseball's backrooms but remain hallmarks of baseball reportage. Writers, announcers and fans who still exalt batting average and RBIs, pitching wins and saves, chemistry and clutch hitting are now 35 years behind the times, and counting.

They are the equivalent of a political reporter who speculates who's going to face President Carter in the next election. (It couldn't have been Sarah Palin; she started junior high school that year.) They are the Catholic Church condemning Copernicus's (and then Galileo's) proof of heliocentrism, before finally acknowledging its truth more than 300 years later. They are my neighbors in South Carolina who still can't bring themselves, 151 years later, to recognize that the Civil War was fought over slavery. The people charged with informing us about baseball know less about the soul of the game than my thoroughly apathetic bride.

I've noted before that the demonizing of scouts and dismissal of defensive value are unforgivably narrow-minded turns in the book and movie. And I've questioned -- just a few posts ago -- Billy Beane's endless rebuilding for a nebulous future. But those who continue to deny the revolution in baseball analysis are on the wrong side of history. Even my wife can tell them that.

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Intriguing Sluggers of 2012

Michael Morse has drawn a Major League paycheck for six years, but not until 2010 was there any hint that he might be an asset to a team. In about half a season of plate appearances he swatted 15 home runs and hit .289/.352/.519. for the Nationals.

Last year, the Nats handed Morse the first base job when Adam Dunn left for oblivion on Chicago's South Side. Morse responded with 303/.360/.550 and 31 jacks to help Washington approach respectability.

Turning 30 in March with a new two-year, $10.5 million contract, Morse will be tasked in 2012 with proving he wasn't a fluke. The 3-1 strikeout-walk ratio doesn't bode well in the long run, but two years of consistent output suggests Morse could continue to hit.

Morse is one of several intriguing players in 2012. Another is the aforementioned Dunn. After a season out of Dante's Inferno, he will be Done unless he rebounds this year. A regression halfway to his mean, factoring in age (now 33), puts Dunn around .232/.357/.460 with 30 homers, according to Baseball Prospectus's projection, which would be slightly better than his replacement in Washington.

Another player to watch is Brent Morel, a 24-year-old third baseman for Dunn's White Sox. In his inaugural campaign, Morel scuffled -- .288 OBP -- but he socked eight home runs and quadrupled his walk rate in September. BP projects him for a desultory .264/.301/.391 with 13 dingers, but young players are less projectable than old ones.

Logan Morrison is a 235-pound lefty masher in Miami whose half-season debut in 2010 (.282/.390/.487) suggested left field may be locked up for awhile. In a full tour of duty at age 24 last year, he slid to .247/.330/.468. While his batting average lagged, Morrison was earning free passes and walloping the ball when he got a hold of it. If he can get hits at a respectable rate, he'll make millions. Should Morrison reprise his minor league averages above .300, he'll make All-Star teams. 

Morrison is probably the best bet of this group, because of his age, batting eye and power. He flashed hitting acumen on the farm and will be newly surrounded by a formidable Marlins lineup that includes Jose Reyes setting the table.

Josh Hamilton may be going in the opposite direction. I'll be surprised if the Texas fly-shagger rebounds from the 298/.346/.536, 25-home run season in 2011 that seemed like a disappointment following an MVP 2010 in which he batted .359 and punched out 32 big flies. His days as a centerfielder may also have passed.

Now 31, Hamilton has put his body and his psyche through the ringer. The Ballpark will continue to hide some of his decline unless he's unable to stay on the field. Look for him to tail off starting this year. It might not be dramatic, but the days of MVP candidacies is over.

I'll take a look at some other intriguing players in future posts. Five more weeks!
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Meet the New Leadoff Hitter. Same As the Old Leadoff Hitter.

Dear Seattle Mariners fan,

My very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies. If you had any notion that you were already knee deep in the fire, you just discovered that was just the frying pan. 2012 promises to hurt even more.

Last year, the Sub-mariners -- because their hitting is below sea level -- trotted out the second lamest collection of bats we've seen in decades, finishing last in baseball in scoring with just 3.43 runs/game in a 4.46 league. Even lamer was the 2010 squad, which scored just 3.17 runs per game in a 4.45 runs/game league, making the last two years the most punchless performance since Rope-A-Dope.

But have no fear, if you need the deck chairs re-arranged on the Titanic mess that is your offense, manager Eric Wedge has a foolproof plan.

Wedge has boldly announced, even before Spring Training as begun, that he is making a big move at the top of the lineup. One-time superstar Ichiro Suzuki, now 38 and getting aboard just 31% of the time, is out as the leadoff hitter.

The new leadoff hitter is the answer to this question: whose four-year, $36 million contract was the biggest waste of legal tender in baseball history? That would be utility infielder Chone Figgins, signed to staff third on defense and reach first on offense for Seattle. The only time over the first two years of his deal that Figgins has reached first is on a throw in the dirt. 

The new Mariner leadoff hitter offers a .236/.308/.285 alternative over the last two seasons to Ichiro. If that doesn't sound like a table-setter, that's all right. It's not as if there's anything being served at this banquet.

Consider that last year, their top slugger was catcher Miguel Olivo, whose 19 home runs accompanied a .224 batting average and .253 OBP. Or that their best (and only good) hitter, rookie second baseman Dustin Ackley (.273/.348/.417), played just half a season. Or that CF Franklin Gutierrez batted .224 with 16 walks and one home run, and was not the worst hitter in Seattle's starting lineup. (That would be the aforementioned $9 million man.)

Which might explain why Wedge, using all the weapons at his disposal, will punish Ichiro's dreadful 2011 performance, in which he neither reached base much nor hit for power discernible at even the atomic level (.272/.310/.335), by shifting him to the third spot in the lineup.

Gaaaaaaack.

Now let's be real. Ackley will have a full season and Jesus is coming -- Yankee import Jesus Montero, who has served notice that he can rake at the highest level. And Seattle still Marinates in pitching -- Felix Hernandez and...uh...well, Pineda and Fister are gone.

Seattle Mariner fans, my very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies.

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A Brave New Season

You've heard of addition by subtraction, but how about addition by inaction? That's the Atlanta Braves' intriguing formula for 2012.

For one thing, the addition necessary for the Tomahawks is one game. One added win last year would have put them in the post-season -- a 163rd game against St. Louis for the Wild Card. A two-win leap would have erased the September fade.

How do you make the leap while standing still? Easy: you get better. Presto.

Signing free agents is almost guaranteed to bloat the payroll, but not necessarily the win column. So Atlanta GM Frank Wren passed on all the big names, small names, stage names and aliases. While the Phillies inked a studly new closer, the Marlins imported a roster and the Nationals hired a pitching staff, Wren sat tight and promised that last year's collapse was ancient history.

In fact, Atlanta will be without two starting players from 2011. They flipped starter Derek Lowe to the Indians for salary relief and some minor league filler. They also let shortstop Alex Gonzalez take his talents to Milwaukee. They won't miss Lowe's waning days in Major League baseball, but AGon was a slick fielder who may be tough to replace.

What that leaves manager Fredi Gonzalez is another year of admirable defense and suspect offense. The starting staff is anchored by veteran Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22)  and now-healthy Jair Jurrjens (13-9, 2.96). Promising youngins Brandon Beachy (7-3, 3.68), Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60) and Mike Minor (5-3, 4.14) will be pushed by rookie sensations Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran, who enjoyed cups of coffee in the bigs last season.

The bullpen is stacked, with Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty fronting the unhittable endgame duo of Jonny Venters (1.82 ERA and 96 K in 88 innings) and Craig Kimbrel (2.10 ERA and 127 K in 77 innings). Atlanta relinquished the third fewest runs in baseball last year behind the historically good staffs in Philly and San Francisco, and they promise to repeat that this year.

Team brass is banking on offensive improvement up and down the lineup in 2012, and it's not clear that check will cash. There's certainly reason to expect Jayson Heyward 3.0 will more resemble the rookie phenom of 2010 (.277/.393/.476) than the sophomore slumper of 2011 (.227/.319/.389). A full season of Michael Bourne means they have speed atop the lineup and perhaps a legitimate leadoff threat if he can repeat his .363 OBP from 105 games in Houston. And Brian McCann is Brian McCann, the NL's premier catcher.

Second sacker Dan Uggla can't possibly repeat his 2011 first half (.185/.257/.365), but he probably can't repeat his second half either (.296/.379/.569), which means his full-season results -- .233/.311/.453 -- might not be far off the mark for 2012.

The Braves are expecting improvement from first baseman Freddie Freeman, who posted a respectable rookie season (.282/.346/.448), but a high BABIP and late season decline hint at regression. The same with Chipper Jones, the centenarian cornerman whose offensive utility and ability to stay on the field can only decline. Plan B at the hot corner involves plugging in utilityman Martin Prado, whom the Braves hope will return to his .300 hitting ways after a season with a .250 BABIP that dragged his batting average down to .260.

Plan A in a woeful outfield requires better performances from Heyward, Bourne and Prado. Plan B requires that the youth movement pays off and Heyward, Jose Constanza and Jordan Schafer suddenly turn into the Alou brothers. But that's not the way to bet, so there may be more futility outfielding ahead for the Braves. It could be worse at shortstop, where they're plugging rookie Tyler Pastornicky into the starting lineup without a track record or a net. The 170-pound righty posted a punchless .314 average in the high minors last year, so good luck with that.

There are plenty of assets on the farm, but most of them are arms. It's hard to see this team improving on its 10th place NL finish in runs scored. But a couple of unexpectedly good performances, coupled with awesome pitching prospects, means the Braves are in the hunt again in 2012. Buckle up: six weeks 'til Opening Day.

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When Do the Bucs Get Good?

A blog post on the Pirates has been slaking through my brain for the better part of the new year. So you can imagine how my ears perked up today when I heard that the Pirates and Yankees were on the verge of a trade involving A.J. Burnett. 

Wouldn't a trade that includes the mercurial right-hander mean a one way ticket to Pittsburgh? Why on earth would a rebuilding team want an erratic 35-year-old with an ERA over 5.00 the last two seasons? The only way this deal makes sense is if Pittsburgh receives prospects as reward for absorbing some of the $33 million owed Burnett for the next two years. 

(Reportedly they'll send a prospect and roughly split the bill. Blecch for the Bucs.)

The slack that the SABR world has cut Pittsburgh brass over the last four-and-a-half years will begin getting taut in 2012. In the five off-season's since Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington came aboard as president and GM, they swabbed the decks of the veteran core for a treasure chest of young players and minor leaguers. Gone are Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Ian Snell and other, lesser lights. Bay tore up the AL for the Red Sox in '08, but otherwise, few in Pittsburgh are lamenting these losses.

The losses they're lamenting are across from the Win column in the standings since. The Pirates' 19-year streak of losing records is not Coonelly and Huntington's fault, and they have been wise to ignore the record and focus on building a contender for the long term. But at 72-90 in 2011, their best record since '04, there's no clear sense that the team is headed in the right direction. (Baseball Prospectus projects the Pirates for 71 wins in '12.)

In swapping the present for the future, the Pirates brought back the likes of Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlmendorf, Dan McCutchen, Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen, Gorkys Hernankdez, Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Tim Alderson, Chris Snyder, Pedro Ciriaco, James McDonald, Andrew Lambo, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, Josh Harrison and John Bowker. This group will determine whether the Pirates are contenders or pretenders in the future.

In 2011, the payoff was still small, and Pittsburgh's fans, even the most patient, are going to be hard pressed to remain so in 2012. Hanrahan saved 40 games with a 1.83 ERA, Tabata and Harrison  provided replacement level hitting at left field and third base, starting pitchers Karstens and McCutchen both got good results as starters despite vexing strikeout rates and Cedeno is a glove-only shortstop now entering his 30s. Besides that, the treasure trove from all those trades is mostly seaweed and sand.

The Pirates have also had five (more) years of high draft picks and have spent the most money in baseball scouring the globe for prospects. Yet they still lack an ace -- or a number two starter, for that matter -- and aside from Andrew McCutchen (.259/.364/.456) they still don't have anyone who can hit a lick.

It's early, to be sure. Almost none of the names above has entered their primes. But it's getting late to be early. A 20th year of failure will have the new management team's supporters assembling the plank for Coonelly and Huntington to walk.

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When "Champion" Doesn't Mean Much

So the New York Giants, a team that doesn't play a single game, home or away, in New York, a team that was a mediocre .500 after 7/8ths of the season and that snuck into the playoffs mostly on the incompetence of their division rivals, are the Champions of the Football World.

Three months earlier the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that had a good but not great season, failed to win their division and snuck into the playoffs largely on the late-season incompetence of a rival, became Champions of the Baseball World.

Which followed by seven months the University of Connecticut's elevation to the pinnacle of the college basketball world following up-and-down play and low expectations entering their post-season tournament.

I don't know how much of this narrative applies to the Dallas Mavericks or the Boston Bruins, though I don't believe either team was considered the kings of their sport until they won their respective titles. But I do know that results like these leave me cold.

It appears that the purpose of post-season play has devolved into a stand-alone tournament designed to crown a victor, but not necessarily to decide anything, or bring a satisfying resolution to their season of play. (Voice in my head: Don't be an idiot: the purpose of post-season play is to create entertainment products of value to TV networks that sell advertising time to beermongers and truck peddlers.) In my youth, there were two separate baseball leagues and the sachems of each squared off to determine who was the best team that year. It was the same with the NFL championship and the early Super Bowls. "Champion" meant "best."

In 21st century sports, after months of play some multiplicity of teams start all over in a tournament that often requires different strengths than the regular season and elevates the importance of luck to or near the forefront.

The upshot of elongated playoffs has been threefold:

1. The regular season's value has diminished. Its main purpose is to earn the minimum requirements for a playoff spot.

2. The best teams are less likely to emerge victorious.

3. More teams participate, which gives more fans a rooting interest.

Factor #3 has dominated all the discussions, but I am very troubled by the dilution of the championship. The Giants and Cardinals seem to me more like the last man standing than like "champions." They endured the winds of fortune that buffet all teams in a tournament better than their competitors, but I don't feel like we have crowned a "best team" or even determined who that is.

With respect to baseball, a seven-game series is such a lottery that adding more of them (or even shorter series, like the one-game variety now proposed) makes a mockery of the 162-game schedule. So forgive me for having difficulty generating much excitement about Super Bowls and Stanley Cups and NCAA Finals and even -- gasp -- World Series. They just don't, in my mind, serve much of a purpose.

Other than inspiring some pretty clever ads.

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