Having finally achieved Major League status after six years of bottom-feeding in the NL East, the Washington Nationals will sport some shiny new pitching along with their double-signed third-base hero, Ryan Zimmerman.
Coming off a down year -- when .289/.355/.483 and sterling defense from the keystone is a down year, it's time for your agent to rattle the corporate cage for an extension -- the face of the franchise inked a six-year, $104 million deal to kick in after the current three-for-$45 million contract winds down following next season. Zim missed 60 games in '11 due to abdominal surgery and was hamstrung (technically he was rectus femorised) upon his return, particularly in the throwing department. Three years earlier he missed 50 games with a torn labrum.
In between, Zimmerman has authored a curriculum vitae of 128 home runs, a 120 OPS+ and superb glove play over six years, dating back to his almost Rookie of the Year award, which Hanley Ramirez won on a hanging chad. His signing removes the stigma that Jayson (Not) Werth is the team's highest-paid performer.
Can the Nats expect better ROI on Zimmerman than on Werth? Almost certainly so, but that's setting the bar limbo low. Simply by stitching together previous achievements into one mosaic, Zimmerman is due for the kind of breakout that earns MVP votes. He's appeared in 162 games before. He's hit .307 before. He's walked 72 times, smacked 33 home runs and 47 doubles. He's won Gold Gloves, for whatever that's worth. Altogether, that's a .307/.400/.600 kind of campaign of which awards are made. Two or three of those seasons along with a handful more "average" Zimmerman years and the bill is paid in full with some value left over for Werth's below average flailing.
Baseball Prospectus's projections say the NL East is a coin flip in which everyone but the Mets gets a side. The Phillies are getting decrepit, the Braves stood still and the Marlins and Nationals visited the baseball team store and bought entirely new outfits. Washington picked out a smashing new pitching staff and Miami selected some lovely accessories, including a dreadlocked shortstop (which they had altered), a Gold Glove pitcher and a must-have closer (I know the price is ridiculous for a handbag, but I just love it!) Injuries, luck and a couple of unexpected performances could turn the division inside-out and backwards twice before the leaves start turning.
That means, of course, that no one player is responsible for his team's fate. But it's almost inconceivable that the Nationals can break through to the top without their new highest-paid ballplayer.
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