Intriguing Players of the AL East

Almost certainly, 2011 was what the Milwaukee Brewers had in mind when they drafted Canadian high schooler Brent Lawrie in the first round. In just 150 at-bats, Lawrie smashed nine homers and eight doubles and posted a sterling .293/.373/.580 from the hot corner. That extrapolates to 36 homers, 32 doubles and 28 steals in 32 attempts over a full season.

Except, the Brewers didn't envision those results coming in Toronto. Milwaukee swapped Lawrie last year as part of the package that brought back Shawn Marcum and a division title. What Toronto got was the fifth youngest player in the majors in 2011, whose cumulative value to the Blue Jays was second on the team -- in a quarter of a season.

If Lawrie can recreate that kind of performance, and his minor league experience suggests he can, Mike Schmidt is making room for him in Cooperstown. Before he does, Lawrie will have to continue to impress for more than 171 plate appearances.

Lawrie's fellow rookie Blue Jay, catcher J.P. Arencibia, also presents a provocative profile. In 129 games, the 25-year-old Miamian pounded 23 long balls and not much else. Slow afoot and, it appears, to get the bat around, Arencibia hit just .219 and whiffed 133 times.

Arencibia is young, hit .301 in his last stint in the minors (Triple-A Las Vegas) and reached safely at about half the normal rate on ground balls, suggesting that some bad luck (and slow-motion running) may have been at work. On the other hand, contact skills like that don't generally wear well and the leash will be short. Minor league backstop sensation Travis D'Arnaud carved up Double-A last year.

Those are two more intriguing players I'll be watching in '12. A full season of breakout for the pair could catapult the Blue Jays into the playoff conversation with NY, Boston and Tampa.

J.J. Hardy's Babe Ruth imitation won't help the Orioles escape the AL East cellar, but another year of .269/.310/.491 with 30 bombs from the shortstop position won't hurt. Hardy has done this sort of thing before -- in '07 and '08, so it's no fluke, and his .273 batting average on balls in play hints at room for improvement. On the weak AL shortstop roster, a reprisal of last year's output makes Hardy Silver Slugger material.

Staying in the AL East, Kelly Shopach's batting average, OBP and slugging percentage have all steadily declined since he hit .261 with 21 homers in '08. If Shoppach's efforts for Boston tail off further from last year's .176/.268/.339 with Tampa, he'll be practicing his craft in Pawtucket. 

GM Ben Cherington and special consultant Bill James know that Shoppach's .212 batting average on balls in play makes less sense than most presidential candidates. They also know that Shoppach feasts on lefties and would look good in a platoon with switch-hitter Jarrod Saltalamacchia. So there may be a last gasp or two left in the 33-year-old righty. As with Hardy, Arencibia and Lawrie, we'll soon find out.

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