A Brave New Season

You've heard of addition by subtraction, but how about addition by inaction? That's the Atlanta Braves' intriguing formula for 2012.

For one thing, the addition necessary for the Tomahawks is one game. One added win last year would have put them in the post-season -- a 163rd game against St. Louis for the Wild Card. A two-win leap would have erased the September fade.

How do you make the leap while standing still? Easy: you get better. Presto.

Signing free agents is almost guaranteed to bloat the payroll, but not necessarily the win column. So Atlanta GM Frank Wren passed on all the big names, small names, stage names and aliases. While the Phillies inked a studly new closer, the Marlins imported a roster and the Nationals hired a pitching staff, Wren sat tight and promised that last year's collapse was ancient history.

In fact, Atlanta will be without two starting players from 2011. They flipped starter Derek Lowe to the Indians for salary relief and some minor league filler. They also let shortstop Alex Gonzalez take his talents to Milwaukee. They won't miss Lowe's waning days in Major League baseball, but AGon was a slick fielder who may be tough to replace.

What that leaves manager Fredi Gonzalez is another year of admirable defense and suspect offense. The starting staff is anchored by veteran Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22)  and now-healthy Jair Jurrjens (13-9, 2.96). Promising youngins Brandon Beachy (7-3, 3.68), Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60) and Mike Minor (5-3, 4.14) will be pushed by rookie sensations Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran, who enjoyed cups of coffee in the bigs last season.

The bullpen is stacked, with Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty fronting the unhittable endgame duo of Jonny Venters (1.82 ERA and 96 K in 88 innings) and Craig Kimbrel (2.10 ERA and 127 K in 77 innings). Atlanta relinquished the third fewest runs in baseball last year behind the historically good staffs in Philly and San Francisco, and they promise to repeat that this year.

Team brass is banking on offensive improvement up and down the lineup in 2012, and it's not clear that check will cash. There's certainly reason to expect Jayson Heyward 3.0 will more resemble the rookie phenom of 2010 (.277/.393/.476) than the sophomore slumper of 2011 (.227/.319/.389). A full season of Michael Bourne means they have speed atop the lineup and perhaps a legitimate leadoff threat if he can repeat his .363 OBP from 105 games in Houston. And Brian McCann is Brian McCann, the NL's premier catcher.

Second sacker Dan Uggla can't possibly repeat his 2011 first half (.185/.257/.365), but he probably can't repeat his second half either (.296/.379/.569), which means his full-season results -- .233/.311/.453 -- might not be far off the mark for 2012.

The Braves are expecting improvement from first baseman Freddie Freeman, who posted a respectable rookie season (.282/.346/.448), but a high BABIP and late season decline hint at regression. The same with Chipper Jones, the centenarian cornerman whose offensive utility and ability to stay on the field can only decline. Plan B at the hot corner involves plugging in utilityman Martin Prado, whom the Braves hope will return to his .300 hitting ways after a season with a .250 BABIP that dragged his batting average down to .260.

Plan A in a woeful outfield requires better performances from Heyward, Bourne and Prado. Plan B requires that the youth movement pays off and Heyward, Jose Constanza and Jordan Schafer suddenly turn into the Alou brothers. But that's not the way to bet, so there may be more futility outfielding ahead for the Braves. It could be worse at shortstop, where they're plugging rookie Tyler Pastornicky into the starting lineup without a track record or a net. The 170-pound righty posted a punchless .314 average in the high minors last year, so good luck with that.

There are plenty of assets on the farm, but most of them are arms. It's hard to see this team improving on its 10th place NL finish in runs scored. But a couple of unexpectedly good performances, coupled with awesome pitching prospects, means the Braves are in the hunt again in 2012. Buckle up: six weeks 'til Opening Day.

b