With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder out of the NL Central, the Cincinnati Reds have visions of a division title in 2012. To get there, they may be banking on a 37-year-old infielder whose shoulder woes last year limited him to 65 games, strangled his offense (.242/.279/.347) and drained his defense of added value. He's in the
final year of a contract for his fourth team after things skittered to a close at his first two stops -- first because the home field
was unkind to him and second because the manager was.
Maybe expecting a bounce-back is unrealistic, but Scott Rolen has surprised people for years.
Even in his dotage, last year was an outlier for Rolen. In 2010, he came to the Queen City and helped the Reds to the division crown by hitting .285/.358/.497 with 20 home runs in 133 games. The year prior, for Toronto and Cincinnati, and despite missing 35 games, Rolen contributed .305/.368/.455 and his usual sterling hot corner defense.
Before that, Scott Rolen was a Hall of Fame third baseman. If that doesn't square with your notion of him, consider this comparison:
Other third baseman: .267/.322/.401 with a 104 OPS+ and defense worth 14 runs above average/year.
268 homers, 1357 RBI, 1232 runs , 28 steals in 50 attempts over 23 seasons
Scott Rolen: .282/.366/.494 with a 123 OPS+ and defense worth 11 runs above average/year.
308 homers, 1248 RBI, 1185 runs, 116 steals in 164 attempts over 16 seasons
(OPS+ measures OBP + SLG as compared to league average, which is expressed as 100. A 123 OPS+ means Rolen is a 23% better hitter than league average.)
Rolen is not quite the wizard with the glove that the other player was, but he's no slouch in that department. And he's significantly more adept at every other part of the game, although for a shorter time. I looked at their peak five seasons, and the two players were pretty indistinguishable.
If he retired today, Scott Rolen could put his career up against Brooks Robinson's first-ballot Hall of Fame tenure without batting an eye. That sounds like a HOF case to me.
None of that, though, presages his 2012 contributions to the Reds. The hounding leg and shoulder issues, coupled with eight years remove from his offensive peak and the steady evaporation of his advantage afield, could mean that this year is nothing more than a swan song. It matters a great deal to the Reds, because the additions of Mat Latos to a handsome young rotation and Ryan Ludwick to an above-average offense could catapult this team into the post-season.
Milwaukee and St. Louis are wounded but remain formidable. Is Scott Rolen?
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Before that, Scott Rolen was a Hall of Fame third baseman. If that doesn't square with your notion of him, consider this comparison:
Other third baseman: .267/.322/.401 with a 104 OPS+ and defense worth 14 runs above average/year.
268 homers, 1357 RBI, 1232 runs , 28 steals in 50 attempts over 23 seasons
Scott Rolen: .282/.366/.494 with a 123 OPS+ and defense worth 11 runs above average/year.
308 homers, 1248 RBI, 1185 runs, 116 steals in 164 attempts over 16 seasons
(OPS+ measures OBP + SLG as compared to league average, which is expressed as 100. A 123 OPS+ means Rolen is a 23% better hitter than league average.)
Rolen is not quite the wizard with the glove that the other player was, but he's no slouch in that department. And he's significantly more adept at every other part of the game, although for a shorter time. I looked at their peak five seasons, and the two players were pretty indistinguishable.
If he retired today, Scott Rolen could put his career up against Brooks Robinson's first-ballot Hall of Fame tenure without batting an eye. That sounds like a HOF case to me.
None of that, though, presages his 2012 contributions to the Reds. The hounding leg and shoulder issues, coupled with eight years remove from his offensive peak and the steady evaporation of his advantage afield, could mean that this year is nothing more than a swan song. It matters a great deal to the Reds, because the additions of Mat Latos to a handsome young rotation and Ryan Ludwick to an above-average offense could catapult this team into the post-season.
Milwaukee and St. Louis are wounded but remain formidable. Is Scott Rolen?
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