He was an All-Star last year, but Miguel Montero's name might still escape your notice. The Diamondbacks' catcher is one of the best in the game, after a second year of .282/.351/.469 performance with 18 jacks from behind the tools of ignorance.
Once Randy Johnson's personal backstop, the 215-pound Venezuelan contributed about four wins by himself to the Snakes' surprising division preeminence in 2011. With another NL West jumble this year among San Francisco, Arizona and Colorado, that makes him one of the more irreplaceable players.
If he keeps producing, that is. Entering his age-28 season, Montero should have a couple of more good years left in his squat, and the D-backs will need it or they'll be forced to play veteran Henry Blanco, who possesses neither the on-base skills nor the pop -- or for that matter the defensive skill -- of the man he understudies.
Arizona's 94-win season in 2011 required some unexpected performances, one of which was Gerardo Parra's. The speedy left field savant developed on-base acumen, the threat of theft and dazzling glove work all in the same year. Prior to last year's .292/.357/.422 performance with 15 of 16 steals and a Gold Glove, Parra had, well, demonstrated little talent for any of that. He hadn't hit for average or power, walked much, covered much ground in left or on the basepaths. In his third season, he doubled his home run output, added 38 points to his OBP, and reversed his incompetence in the base stealing department in which he got thrown out seven times while stealing six bases.
Standard projections suggest players who break out often regress to their mean, but Parra only turns 25 in May. To repeat atop the division, his team will need him to continue to progress, or at least consolidate the gains he made last season.
On the flip side, there's the case of Chase Utley. Once the king of the keystone riding the Hall of Fame rails, Utley has begun to run aground. His batting average and slugging percentage have slipped each of the last four years, with playing time and home run rate wilting in three of those seasons.
Concomitant regression by Ryan Howard, the departures of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, and the failure of Dominic Brown to blossom on schedule means the 100-win Phillies are suddenly vulnerable in the NL East. Halladay, Lee, Hamels & Co. remain a formidable rotation -- though minus Oswalt, no longer historic -- but they are getting diminishing returns from the offense.
That's where a rebound by Utley would come in handy after being sidelined for weeks by patellar tendinitis. But he's 33 now and he seems to suffer from Roseanne Roseannadanna Disease -- it's always something. An injury-free season and a return to greatness at the plate could staunch some of the bleeding in Philadelphia.
That's not usually the way to bet, health being a skill that Utley evidently lacks. But top performers like him retain their skill longer, and the projections forecast at least one more season of exemplary play, though without the gaudy home run total or the .300 average. Such a bounce-back would go a long way towards staving off the rest of the NL East.
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1 comment:
There's no worry about dominating the NL East. It's all about October. And this year it's OURS! It's an election year and after blowing it in the NLDS last year Phils have come full circle (that's how 2007 ended).
Bring on the Miami Marlins- they'll probably destroy themselves in that clubhouse with Reyes, Ramirez and Ozzy. And Heyward can't handle the pressure, it seems. I hope this year the Phils LET Atlanta into Oct. (they sure woulda been better off that way last year).
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