Farewell Ichiro -- Please!

Back in 2008 -- that's a decade ago -- I noted in this space how little value Ichiro provided the Mariners when his batting average declined to the Mondoza-and-a-half line. At .302 that season, nearly all of it singles, Ichiro was barely an average hitter. That generally doesn't cut it in a corner outfield position.

Now Ichiro was a whiz on the bases (43 of 47 steals that year) and a Gold Glover in the field. He was an awesome ballplayer. But the point was that his value offensively depended largely on his batting average.

Ichir-old
Fast forward to Ichiro's baseball dotage. It's always amazing when a professional athlete can compete in his 40s. There's no shame in getting passed by young'ins at that age. 

In fact, Ichiro has lost a step, so buh-bye to all the infield hits. Since 2011 he's produced just .269/.310/.345 with the bat -- 16% worse than average. Despite the amazing stretching regime, he can't play the field much anymore and this season was relegated to pinch hitting for the Marlins. 

He's Ichiro without the Itch. That leaves 0, as in nothing.

Ichiro said this week that he expects to come back for more at age 44. For what? He hit .256 with nine extra base hits this year.  He stole a single base. 

The rebuilding Marlins must move on with youth. Who will sign Ichiro? Young teams need to make way for the future. Those in contention need every roster spot in the era of 13 pitchers. There is no more room for novelty acts.

Some Kinda Record at Stake
I know that Ichiro is a hit away from the all-time hits record, if you combine his Japanese league hit total with his MLB hit total. But honestly, who is even keeping track of that?

It's easy for me to say, but if Ichiro wants the illusion of control, he should retire. The alternative is to audition for dubious front office types at 44 and face the humiliation of rejection. 

On the off-chance some dope GM wastes a roster spot for his "veteran presence," he'll find himself enjoying the grind of travel and the end of the bench. And perhaps the indignity of getting cut halfway through the season.

Instead, Ichiro Suzuki can start the clock on his Hall of Fame induction. There won't be any dubious front office types rejecting him for that.

Ridiculous Things You Notice at a Braves Game

Hied ourselves to Atlanta for Braves-Marlins on Independence Day weekend. Jose Fernandez versus Lucas Harrel making his Braves debut. It was 9-1, just as you expected, except Fernandez was the smoked, not the smoker.

Baseball's a crazy game.

Some more oddness I observed:

• There are six or eight young women in every major American market who can list their summer job as "professional ballpark waver." At the Braves game we witnessed, these women walked onto the field for all the pre-game and between-inning promotions and did the following: smiled and waved to the crowd. Occasionally they held signs. So what are the qualifications for this position? How do they distinguish among the 200 pretty, young female applicants to determine which half-dozen would become professional wavers? Wrist pronation ability? 

• Organist Matt Kaminski, who plays the walk-up music for opposing players, is a comedic genius. He played "We're Off To See the Wizard" for Marcell Ozuna and "Jesus Is Just All Right With Me" for Christian Yelich. Matt, I want you to know that I got the jokes and was richly amused.

• I was shocked to see Jose Fernandez loaf on the basepaths after bunting early in the game. The Braves had trouble handling the ball and barely threw him out, so he would have been safe had he hustled. How does a manager allow that? I hoped he was nursing a leg injury, and the way he pitched, he might have been. More shocking: Ichiro jogged after a key base hit in the sixth inning. The runners moved up an extra base and Atlanta ended up scoring seven in the frame and breaking the game open. I would like to see a manager walk onto the field a la Bobby Cox and remove a player for lollygagging.

•  The umpires reviewed a close play at first early in the game. It took them several minutes to decide

whether the runner beat the throw. There should be a new rule: if they can't determine a call after three slow-motion replays it's too close to matter. Uphold the call and move on. As it was, after three minutes of review, it's very likely they got it wrong.

• There's nothing more annoying at an MLB game than the incessant, inane, commercial video chatter between innings at decibel levels designed to drown out passing aircraft. It nearly ruined my experience last year in Detroit and Cincinnati. In Atlanta, it was much more subdued. Note to league: can that crap.

• Based on one pinch hit at-bat, there is something wrong with Giancarlo Stanton. Dude fanned on three Little League swings. He looked like his own grandfather, not that I've ever seen the gentleman.

• At every home game, the Braves make a big show of replacing the number on the outfield wall

corresponding to how many MLB games are left at Turner Field. How tone deaf can you be? This is an abomination. The franchise is costing local residents something in the area of a billion dollars by ditching a perfectly fine 20-year-old stadium and conning a local suburb into building them a sparkling new many-hundred-million-dollar edifice. Hey Marietta: get a 50-year lease.

• Prior to the game, a local country act performed in the area of Turner that might be called the lobby or atrium. Wife and I stood 10 feet away and commented to each other on the fine craftsmanship. At one point I asked her, "why couldn't these two songs be hits on the country charts?" See, I'd never heard of John Berry before. Now I have. The songs were She's Taken A Shine and What's In It for Me, which reached #2 and #5 respectively on the country charts. Then Berry performed the national anthem on his guitar and slayed it.

• In days of yore, a kid went to a Major League game in the hopes of catching a foul ball. Today, kids dream of seeing themselves on the video board. So teams oblige by showing waving, screaming, shimmying, incredulous kids on the board every chance they get. This is a most bizarre phenomenon; don't these kids know what they look like? 

• The new video boards provide so much awesome information, like real time updates on out-of-town games and background on the batter and pitcher. I really appreciate that. But c'mon Braves, how about entering the 21st century and provide OBP and SLG. Sure, Ichiro is batting .340, woo-woo, but he hasn't worked a walk since the NBA playoffs started.

• Contrary to popular belief, there is no Augusta, GA. We stopped on the way home for a stroll on the River Walk along the Savannah River. Then we GPS'd downtown and it took us to -- nothing. We GPS'd City Hall and it's -- nowhere. We found a street that looked like it might bustle but it was two blocks long and ceased to exist if you turned any corner. This is a city of 200,000 residents. Not a single exit sign on the highway directs traffic "downtown." They did have a nice mall with a Whole Foods on the fringes of the "city" though. And a Moe's. Welcome to Moe's!

It's the End of the World As We Know It, and They Feel Fine in Pittsburgh

In the last week, the Yankees secured a spare part of no particular value (the remnants of Ichiro) to further overpopulate their outfield, the Dodgers traded a promising pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) for a high-priced malcontent who can no longer handle short or third or slug like he used to (Hanley Ramirez), and the Pirates -- the Pirates! -- swapped a trio of farmhands for a veteran mid-rotation hurler (Wandy Rodriguez), while the Astros acquired three more prospects for a 30-something pitcher (aforementioned Wandy) who's got to be tired of hurling in vain.

And the Marlins cashed it in, 95 games after mortgaging the franchise with a trio of free agent leaps.

Holy Upside-Down Day, Batman! What's going on here?

The usually-adept Yankees have a long history of plugging last-gasp veterans into limited roles, but it's hard to fathom Ichiro. His .261/.288/.353, 16 of 18 steals and banishment from center field are indicative of his declining skills. I guess the Bombers are expecting a 65-game rebound from him to cushion the loss of Brett Gardner.

The rejuvenated Dodgers are banking on a change in scenery for Ramirez, who was aggrieved by the signing of Jose Reyes that displaced him at short and left him scuffling like it was 2011. Still just 28, he has spent 180 games hitting .245 and losing 200 points of OPS from his '06-'10 peak. A $30 million L.A. gamble, he's tumbled from cost-controlled, five-tool superstar to below-average, multi-millionaire position-filler. Although he displaces Dee Gordon, an empty uniform at short or Juan Uribe, a sub-replacement lead weight at third, replacing replacement-level performance is hardly worth the trouble.

Meanwhile, Houston and Pittsburgh, two of the saddest sack franchises in baseball, orchestrated a deal that not only benefits both, but is tailor-made for both of them. The Astros had the easy part, converting a quality 33-year-old pitcher of no value to them into a trio of potential future assets. 

In Pittsburgh, the "Welcome Back To Relevance" banner now hangs in PNC Park. A bumper crop on the farm has allowed the team to bolster its rotation for a -- gulp -- playoff run, and two more seasons beyond, with little damage to the future. The 'Stros pick up nearly half the $30 million tab for the Wandy-man, leaving Pittsburgh plenty of room in 2013 to obtain more strategic assets. For Houston, now occupying the Pirates' old position in the pecking order, it's about plowing under this year's crop to prepare the soil for future growth. 

And then there is Miami, which needed all of four months to scuttle its expensive but ill-conceived four-year plan. I wonder how that gaudy new stadium is going to look empty. Well, we'll soon find out.

New York is still World Series favorites, the Dodgers are still a fraud, but now a poorer one, the Marlins are still a mess, but without the daily reminder. The Pirates and Astros are each something new: a contender and a wise investor. It's nice to see.

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Meet the New Leadoff Hitter. Same As the Old Leadoff Hitter.

Dear Seattle Mariners fan,

My very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies. If you had any notion that you were already knee deep in the fire, you just discovered that was just the frying pan. 2012 promises to hurt even more.

Last year, the Sub-mariners -- because their hitting is below sea level -- trotted out the second lamest collection of bats we've seen in decades, finishing last in baseball in scoring with just 3.43 runs/game in a 4.46 league. Even lamer was the 2010 squad, which scored just 3.17 runs per game in a 4.45 runs/game league, making the last two years the most punchless performance since Rope-A-Dope.

But have no fear, if you need the deck chairs re-arranged on the Titanic mess that is your offense, manager Eric Wedge has a foolproof plan.

Wedge has boldly announced, even before Spring Training as begun, that he is making a big move at the top of the lineup. One-time superstar Ichiro Suzuki, now 38 and getting aboard just 31% of the time, is out as the leadoff hitter.

The new leadoff hitter is the answer to this question: whose four-year, $36 million contract was the biggest waste of legal tender in baseball history? That would be utility infielder Chone Figgins, signed to staff third on defense and reach first on offense for Seattle. The only time over the first two years of his deal that Figgins has reached first is on a throw in the dirt. 

The new Mariner leadoff hitter offers a .236/.308/.285 alternative over the last two seasons to Ichiro. If that doesn't sound like a table-setter, that's all right. It's not as if there's anything being served at this banquet.

Consider that last year, their top slugger was catcher Miguel Olivo, whose 19 home runs accompanied a .224 batting average and .253 OBP. Or that their best (and only good) hitter, rookie second baseman Dustin Ackley (.273/.348/.417), played just half a season. Or that CF Franklin Gutierrez batted .224 with 16 walks and one home run, and was not the worst hitter in Seattle's starting lineup. (That would be the aforementioned $9 million man.)

Which might explain why Wedge, using all the weapons at his disposal, will punish Ichiro's dreadful 2011 performance, in which he neither reached base much nor hit for power discernible at even the atomic level (.272/.310/.335), by shifting him to the third spot in the lineup.

Gaaaaaaack.

Now let's be real. Ackley will have a full season and Jesus is coming -- Yankee import Jesus Montero, who has served notice that he can rake at the highest level. And Seattle still Marinates in pitching -- Felix Hernandez and...uh...well, Pineda and Fister are gone.

Seattle Mariner fans, my very deepest, most sincere, heartfelt and genuine sympathies.

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Ichiro At .261

Ichiro Suzuki is going to the Hall of Fame. A .330 lifetime average, 400 steals at an 80% rate, 10 straight 200-hit seasons and a rifle in right field, combined with a brilliant first act in Japan punch his ticket. A former Rookie of the Year and MVP -- inappropriate and undeserved respectively -- and a consistent Gold Glover, he's not just worthy; he's unique. He's the second or third greatest leadoff hitter of all time even without his career in the Orient.

So far in 2011, we're seeing exactly what Ichiro's limitations have always been. In a nutshell, for Ichiro, it was always about piling up singles. Infield scrambles and shallow outfield drop shots have always been the key to his value. They drive an unprecedented lifetime BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of.356. (Unlike most pitchers, hitters do have some control over their BABIP. Great bat control, hitting line drives, avoiding pop-ups and shallow flies, and beating out infield hits all inflate BABIP, which inflates overall batting average.)

This year, at 37, Ichiro seems to have lost his magic. With a below average BABIP of .280 and batting average of .261, Ichiro is a replacement level player. Lacking power or much of a proclivity for free passes, his .261/.317/.299 is abysmal for a corner outfielder. He's still swiping bases -- 14 in 18 attempts so far, but the defensive metrics suggest he is no longer an asset in the field either.

What this suggests in practical terms is that he no longer possesses the rare ability to place the ball on the field. Losing a split second of reaction time to age makes all the difference in the world in that regard. 

There's no precedent for quite this. In Ichiro's worst previous year, 2008, he still sported a fluky-looking .334 BABIP, batted .310 and got on base nearly 39% of the time. In 2005, a BABIP of .316 held down his average and on base to career-lows, but he seemed to be swinging more for the fences, smacking a career-high 15 homers.

In those two seasons, Ichiro was a below-average hitting right fielder. His other virtues still made him a reasonably valuable 4-5 win player, but none of that was due to a .300+ batting average that we thought for years branded a player exceptional.

Live by the BABIP; die by the BABIP. This may be the early hours of the sun setting on a singular career, a career based more than any other in history on a freaky ability to flick out the bat and loop a pitch into right field.
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Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Four out of five people -- nearly half! -- are innumerate. It's online, so it must be true.

When I was a reporter, the local county executive of one political stripe was battling over budgetary matters with the rival-dominated legislature. The legislative leader claimed that the rate of increase in the budget had spiked 200%. The number-addled media duly reported it.

The next day, the county executive responded that he had hog-tied spending 25% below inflation. The media, without any effort or ability to analyze the apparent paradox, simply passed that along too.

Of course, the few reporters like me who could count to 11 without removing their footwear knew that they were both spinning absurdly the same information. The county had increased spending in year one by 1% and in year two by 3%. That's a tripling in the rate of increase, which is 200%. Since the cost of living was rising at four percent, the rate of county spending had risen three-quarters of that, or 25% less. As Mark Twain noted, there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

In baseball, statistics are like fire: a wonderful servant and terrible master. People facile with statistics can use them to illuminate and enrich. Most people have a weak grip on stats and instead use them, often unknowingly, to obfuscate and confuse.

Two example jumped to mind this week. I'll address the second one in an upcoming post.

First, Ichiro Suzuki reached 200 hits for a record 10th straight year. This is noteworthy, and even somewhat significant, but not terribly so. If it were, it's hard to imagine that the DH-aided Mariners would be on pace to score the fewest runs in a season in 39 years. (Aside: "DH-aided" might be hyperbole. Seattle DHs are swimming underwater as a group in the Mendoza pool. Then again, so are their catchers. Their backstops, second-basemen and shortstops are slugging less than .300. Felix Hernandez deserves the Purple Heart for going 12-12.)

Collecting bunches of hits is always a good thing. To accrue 200, a batter must hit for average (.331 lifetime) and demonstrate durability over a six month regular season (he's averaging 158 games). Achieving that 10 straight years is a testament to consistency, reliability and hitting prowess. It doesn't hurt, of course, that Ichiro has led-off in nearly every game he's played.

Accumulating lots of hits is also a mark of one giant inability: getting on base by free pass. Albert Pujols has tallied 200 hits just once in his all-world career, yet he's batted safely more often than Ichiro in many fewer plate appearances. (They're both completing their 10th MLB season.) The Babe reached that level just three times.

Ichiro is a two-trick pony offensively. He gets hits and steals bases (an average of 38 SB/9 CS per campaign) but is almost a total power outage. For all his hits, he's reached 30 doubles just twice in his career and double-digits in homers twice.

Ichiro is a very extreme example of the hollowness of batting average. At .315 with just 37 extra base hits, Ichiro is 62nd in the majors in value over a replacement level player (VORP), just behind Carlos Ruiz and ahead of Austin Jackson. Failing to walk leaves him just 63rd in MLB in on-base percentage (among players with 300 PA) just behind Kelly Johnson and ahead of Jeff Keppinger. In short, Ichiro needs to bat about .330 to be a great hitter and at least .300 to be a good one.

Ichiro has been a great player mostly because his glove work, his dependability and his basepath prowess complement a sturdy OBP (.376 lifetime) fueled mostly by batting average. There's a certain level of novelty act to his career.  After all, Travis Hafner has a higher lifetime OBP than Ichiro with a bucket-load more power, but no one's bronzing his likeness. It's all the other things that make Ichiro a sublime player.

As the third best lead-off hitter of all time, Ichiro's a lock for the Hall of Fame. (Rickey & Rock both had higher OBP, higher SLG and more net steals; neither was Ichiro's equal in the field.) But he'll be on the low end in the Hall when considering actual value to his team.

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