Sabathia, Nova . . . Johan Santana?

Great news for the Mets from Florida: Johan Santana is flummoxing batters again and appears on track to reclaim his position as ace of the rotation.

Big shakers of salt always have to accompany teams to Spring Training, but it's an especially tasty development in Santana's case following Sept. 2010 shoulder surgery that kept him out of action all last year.

A few more starts like his six-inning domination of the full Cardinals lineup should have Met brass celebrating with Santana's agent. And asking him to waive his no-trade clause.

Consider the Mets' dilemma in lists.

Here's the list of reasons the Metroplitans have no chance to compete in the NL East this year:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. They stink.

Here' are the top 6 items on the Mets' 2012-2013 Christmas list.
1. Money to make payroll.
2. Money to clear debt.
3. Money to sign developing talent.
4. Money to sign key free agents.
5. Young talent.
6. Patient commitment to a rebuilding plan

Here's the list of items, after a new Madoff-related subpoena, that Sandy Alderson can most do without in 2012-2013:
1. An extravagantly expensive 33-year-old starter with health concerns and trade value.
2. Unwarranted expectations by fans that this is anything more than the developmental squad for the 2014 team.

The cash-strapped franchise owes Santana $49 million over the next two years, plus a $5.5 buyout on a $25.5 team option for 2014. The odds of that contract paying off, equal to the odds of anyone picking up that option, are still greater than the odds that the Mets will be competitive during its life. With Santana and some good breaks, the Mets avoid the cellar and/or win half their games. Without him, they flop, rehire some laid-off ticket sales guys and mine some prospects.That's why they need to trade Santana.


The question then is: who would relinquish emerging talent and commit a fat chunk of payroll to an aging, ex-star whose performance began slipping even before his body came apart? By 2010, his heater had cooled a few degrees to 90 mph and his strikeout rate had plummeted to 6.5/game. It was topping 9.0/game in his Twins heyday.


The answer is no one, which is why the Mets would have to kick back a hefty chunk of Santana's salary. Still, saving $15 million/year (minus the $400,000/year cost of his replacement), rather than unloading the full $25 million salary, is better than nothing. It frees up 40 Lucas Duda salaries and maybe helps find the next Lucas Duda or two. 

Now with two Wild Cards, everyone this side of the Astros thinks they're a pitcher away. A veteran squad with a rotation hole and a big bank account -- I'm looking at you Rangers, Yankees,  Red Sox, Cardinals, Marlins and even you Brewers -- might entertain a deal.


The key to a Met Renaissance is as much about whether the team is willing to trade the present for the future as it is about what they are able to get in those trades. As the oldest and least affordable of their chips, a seemingly healthy Santana should be at the top of that list.
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When Mediocrity Is Heaven

What do the following have in common: Lucas Duda, Josh Thole, Jason Pridie, Ruben Tejada, Willie Harris?

a. You've never heard of them.

b. They were in the Mets' starting lineup today.

c. They are borderline minor leaguers.

d. All of the above.

With three-fifths of an already shaky lineup's best players (David Wright, Jason Bay, Ike Davis) nursing injuries, this bevy of backups (combined Value Over Replacement Player equal to one quarter of Jose Reyes') has already accumulated 624 plate appearances.

Predictably, this motley crew, anchored by Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan, smoked Alexi Ogando and the Texas Rangers 14-5 today. (That would be the formerly invincible Alexi Ogando.) In many ways, it has been a microcosm of the season in Queens.

During a year in which all five of their best hitters have spent time on the DL, and their best starter since Tom Seaver has been out all year, Terry Collins' roster has managed to flirt with .500 through half the schedule. The Miracle Mets? That's 2011.

The rotation features such lights as Dillon Gee, Jonathan Niese and regression king R.A. Dickey. And the bench, well, you don't have a bench once Jason Pridie is starting. But the emergency back-up bench -- e.g. Brad Emaus, Mike Nickeas and Chin Lung Hu (I'm not making up these names) -- could win a game of hide and seek against Major League pitchers without hiding.

There's no single bullet; this collection of mutts has gotten it done -- about half the time, anyway -- with equal parts hitting and pitching, though their defense lags. That they're middle of the pack at the plate and slightly below that on the mound is a tribute to ...something. Other than MVP candidate Reyes (.334/.380/.506 26 steals), a resurgent Beltran (.273/.368/.474) and young Davis (.302/.383/.543), who may be done for the year, there isn't a "wow" in the bunch. None of the non-stars has more than four home runs, or six steals or a .350 on base average, except Ronny Paulino, whose .319 batting average in 95 at bats is offset by just four extra base hits. 

On the hill, it's all B-plusses, and no As. Everyone in the rotation but ace Mike Pelfrey has pitched to an ERA under 4.00, but no one has been lights out. The same with the relief corps: with the exception of the conflagration that is DJ Carrasco, everyone with 17+ innings has an ERA under 3.80. AT the same time, there isn't a sandman in the bunch.

Add to that the supposed distraction of Fred Wilpon's financial and intellectual bankruptcy, and it would be understandable if New Yorkers gave the team a pass this year. Instead, through all the disappointments and dyspepsia, the orange and blue are hanging on. 

The Mets won't contend this year, nor in the foreseeable future if they let Reyes go. Still, they've represented the outer boroughs with a lot of scraps and a loosening grip on Mr. Madoff's ill-gotten wealth. In Flushing these days, that passes for a victory.

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