Michael Morse has drawn a Major League paycheck for six years, but not until 2010 was there any hint that he might be an asset to a team. In about half a season of plate appearances he swatted 15 home runs and hit .289/.352/.519. for the Nationals.
Last year, the Nats handed Morse the first base job when Adam Dunn left for oblivion on Chicago's South Side. Morse responded with 303/.360/.550 and 31 jacks to help Washington approach respectability.
Turning 30 in March with a new two-year, $10.5 million contract, Morse will be tasked in 2012 with proving he wasn't a fluke. The 3-1 strikeout-walk ratio doesn't bode well in the long run, but two years of consistent output suggests Morse could continue to hit.
Morse is one of several intriguing players in 2012. Another is the aforementioned Dunn. After a season out of Dante's Inferno, he will be Done unless he rebounds this year. A regression halfway to his mean, factoring in age (now 33), puts Dunn around .232/.357/.460 with 30 homers, according to Baseball Prospectus's projection, which would be slightly better than his replacement in Washington.
Another player to watch is Brent Morel, a 24-year-old third baseman for Dunn's White Sox. In his inaugural campaign, Morel scuffled -- .288 OBP -- but he socked eight home runs and quadrupled his walk rate in September. BP projects him for a desultory .264/.301/.391 with 13 dingers, but young players are less projectable than old ones.
Logan Morrison is a 235-pound lefty masher in Miami whose half-season debut in 2010 (.282/.390/.487) suggested left field may be locked up for awhile. In a full tour of duty at age 24 last year, he slid to .247/.330/.468. While his batting average lagged, Morrison was earning free passes and walloping the ball when he got a hold of it. If he can get hits at a respectable rate, he'll make millions. Should Morrison reprise his minor league averages above .300, he'll make All-Star teams.
Morrison is probably the best bet of this group, because of his age, batting eye and power. He flashed hitting acumen on the farm and will be newly surrounded by a formidable Marlins lineup that includes Jose Reyes setting the table.
Josh Hamilton may be going in the opposite direction. I'll be surprised if the Texas fly-shagger rebounds from the 298/.346/.536, 25-home run season in 2011 that seemed like a disappointment following an MVP 2010 in which he batted .359 and punched out 32 big flies. His days as a centerfielder may also have passed.
Now 31, Hamilton has put his body and his psyche through the ringer. The Ballpark will continue to hide some of his decline unless he's unable to stay on the field. Look for him to tail off starting this year. It might not be dramatic, but the days of MVP candidacies is over.
I'll take a look at some other intriguing players in future posts. Five more weeks!
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Now 31, Hamilton has put his body and his psyche through the ringer. The Ballpark will continue to hide some of his decline unless he's unable to stay on the field. Look for him to tail off starting this year. It might not be dramatic, but the days of MVP candidacies is over.
I'll take a look at some other intriguing players in future posts. Five more weeks!
b
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