Tom Seaver throws like he's nearly 70 but looks like he's not yet 50. I guess you can't nip and tuck your fastball.
Why do we feel compelled to devote so much time to crooning at baseball games? Marc Anthony sings like a girl. Neil Diamond is so over that Huey Lewis and the News laugh at him.
(In fact, note to Baseball: You're two-for-two with Diamond, if falling flat on your face is your goal. Sweet Caroline [whoa-whoa-whoa] is older than Mariano Rivera. Get the dorky old dude off the field.)
Speaking of Rivera, that was awesome. He and Cano really showed their class at the ASB. Rivera is so genuine. Bravo to Cano for his professionalism in the face of being forced out of the game after two pitches.
Who fed Joe Buck and Tim McCarver their Wheaties? That was the single best broadcast I've heard them do. It was pitch perfect. They called it a pitchers' duel from the start. They kept up with the personnel changes and packaged them in the managers' philosophies. They wove in on-point reflections on the season so far. They captured the changing of the guard without overstating it. And they let the scene speak for itself when Rivera came out. Fox gets my All-Star vote for last night.
It's nice that the bestowers of such things picked Mariano Rivera for the MVP. Let's be honest why he won it: because there was no MVP. Only the final run scored on a hit. No one homered. The shutout required 10 pitchers.
As usual, the AP got it wrong. In its first paragraph, it credited Jose Bautista, JJ Hardy and Jason Kipnis for driving in the game's runs. Two of the three runs scored on outs. Hardy nearly hit into a double-play. The trio went one-for-four.
Am I the only person who noticed how stupid Torii Hunter looked trying to pump up the AL squad before the game? I mean, besides his teammates? Torii, that #*!@ doesn't work in baseball.
Sal Perez got the Royals' first hit in an All-Star game since Bo Jackson in 1986. That's 27 years ago, before Perez, and about half his All-Star teammates, were born.
The seats directly behind home plate were two-thirds empty by the seventh inning. Those are the seats occupied -- until late in the contest -- by rich, well-connected people who don't love baseball but want to be seen. You snot-nosed, mouth-breathing toads -- either honor sporting history or stay the !@#$%^ home. Dickie from Charlotte and Paul from Oakland would've given their left testicles for those tickets.
So now the American League has home field advantage in the World Series. Isn't it great that America gets to see an extra game at the O.Co Coliseum! Just in time for them to burn down that junk pile and let the A's move to San Jose.
And finally, we still have half a season to go. It's shaping up as one for the ages. Is it Thursday yet?
17 July 2013
14 July 2013
Groovy Bits of Data Entering the All-Star Break
Alfonso Soriano is poised to become the 14th Major Leaguer to reach 400 homers and 300 steals.
Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.
Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why.
The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.
Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done.
Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.
Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.
*Chris Davis is the second.
The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.
David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.
You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.
Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.
Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk.
Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.
Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.
Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.
Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why.
The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.
Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done.
Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.
Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.*Chris Davis is the second.
The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.
David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.
You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.
Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.
Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk.
Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.
Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.
13 July 2013
Phinished Phillies Phacing a CatAstroPhe
Following their World Series appearance in 2005 (a sweep at the hands of the White Sox) management of the Houston Astros decided that denial would be an appropriate strategy for the future.
So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.
The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.
Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.
Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.
Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.
Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?
The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice. The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.
So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.
The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.
Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.
Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.
Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.
Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?
The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice. The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.
11 July 2013
Out-Puiging Yasiel
In his 126 plate appearances of 2013, the young Latino has rocked a .409 batting average for the Dodgers with a .736 slugging percentage. He wins with his feet and his defense too, flashing a catapult when runners are foolish enough to test his arm. His arrival in the lineup has coincided with big blue rejuvenation that now puts L.A. at .500, just 1.5 games out of first place.
But nobody's talking about Hanley Ramirez.
The 29-year-old shortstop is reminding baseball fans what stoked Marlin fans from '06-'10. Returning from thumb surgery at season's start and a hamstring injury in May, Ramirez has out-Puig'ed Yasiel and is now leading the team in Wins Against Replacement in just 36 games.
It's a tribute to Puig that he could make all the HanRam controversy evaporate. After posting an MVP-contending .313/.385/.521 line with 196 steals in his first five years, Ramirez lost his mojo in '11 and '12. He appears to have rediscovered it over the last calendar year, during which he is hitting at career norms. If he sustains it, he'll be back in the conversation as best shortstop in the world.
The Dodgers are smack-dab in the NL West race thanks in large part to Puig and Ramirez, and they'll need the pair's continued aptitude -- though not necessarily at such extremes -- to remain in the hunt. A full year of this and the Cuban sensation won't be enough to prevent us from noticing that Hanley Ramirez is back.
But nobody's talking about Hanley Ramirez.
The 29-year-old shortstop is reminding baseball fans what stoked Marlin fans from '06-'10. Returning from thumb surgery at season's start and a hamstring injury in May, Ramirez has out-Puig'ed Yasiel and is now leading the team in Wins Against Replacement in just 36 games.
It's a tribute to Puig that he could make all the HanRam controversy evaporate. After posting an MVP-contending .313/.385/.521 line with 196 steals in his first five years, Ramirez lost his mojo in '11 and '12. He appears to have rediscovered it over the last calendar year, during which he is hitting at career norms. If he sustains it, he'll be back in the conversation as best shortstop in the world.
The Dodgers are smack-dab in the NL West race thanks in large part to Puig and Ramirez, and they'll need the pair's continued aptitude -- though not necessarily at such extremes -- to remain in the hunt. A full year of this and the Cuban sensation won't be enough to prevent us from noticing that Hanley Ramirez is back.
07 July 2013
Fun With Conventional Wisdom
Braindrizzling should pay royalties to the Associated Press for all the knee-slapping material it provides. Let's take a spin around the Majors AP-style, which is to say, in the style of the purveyors of conventional wisdom.
Jason Heyward hit a three-run homer to lead an Atlanta offense that scored in all but two innings.
Heyward's blast came with the Braves leading 7-1 in the seventh inning, having already blitzed Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick. He didn't lead the Atlanta offense to anything they hadn't already achieved. Perhaps Dan Uggla's two-run smash in the second inning could have been described as "leading" the offense.
Jonathan Lucroy homered and Yovanni Gallardo scattered six hits over six innings while adding two hits and a pair of runs scored as Milwaukee beat the Mets.
Here's how Gallardo "scattered" six hits: he mixed in three walks, a homer and a double, surrendering four runs in six frames. That's an ERA of 6.00 and fails to attain the modest standard of a quality start. But seven Brewer runs afforded him his seventh "win," and for that Gallardo shares top billing.
Andy Pettitte threw an early pitch exactly where he wanted. Chris Davis launched it over the centerfield wall. Most of his later offerings landed in the right spot and Pettitte stopped the Orioles again.
...Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play? Pettitte also allowed nine base runners and four runs in six-and-two-thirds innings. That's an ERA of 5.40 and also not a quality start, but backed by early runs, Pettitte was credited with a victory.
We've still got a ways to go.
Jason Heyward hit a three-run homer to lead an Atlanta offense that scored in all but two innings.
Heyward's blast came with the Braves leading 7-1 in the seventh inning, having already blitzed Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick. He didn't lead the Atlanta offense to anything they hadn't already achieved. Perhaps Dan Uggla's two-run smash in the second inning could have been described as "leading" the offense.
Jonathan Lucroy homered and Yovanni Gallardo scattered six hits over six innings while adding two hits and a pair of runs scored as Milwaukee beat the Mets.
Here's how Gallardo "scattered" six hits: he mixed in three walks, a homer and a double, surrendering four runs in six frames. That's an ERA of 6.00 and fails to attain the modest standard of a quality start. But seven Brewer runs afforded him his seventh "win," and for that Gallardo shares top billing.
Andy Pettitte threw an early pitch exactly where he wanted. Chris Davis launched it over the centerfield wall. Most of his later offerings landed in the right spot and Pettitte stopped the Orioles again.
...Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play? Pettitte also allowed nine base runners and four runs in six-and-two-thirds innings. That's an ERA of 5.40 and also not a quality start, but backed by early runs, Pettitte was credited with a victory.
We've still got a ways to go.
06 July 2013
The Post I'd Like To Write, But Don't Have The Data To Support
If only I were a Sabremetrician.
If only I had access to big piles of data about older players and their return from injury.
Then I could write this blog post.
The one about how Derek Jeter's career could be effectively over even if he returns from his ankle injury and performs well in August and September, and even beyond.
(Which reminds me: Jeter tweeted yesterday that he's almost ready to begin his rehab assignment in the Minors. I wonder if Brian Cashman is going to respond by telling Alex Rodriguez to shut the !@#$%^&*! up.)
Somewhere out there is a warehouse of data about how 39-year-olds perform after major injuries that sideline them for eight months, which is how long the Yankee shortstop's been laid up.
My guess is that it does not bode well, not only because there aren't a whole lot of 39-year-olds performing at a high level to begin with, and not only because those who do generally play more sedentary positions like 1B or DH. Mainly it's because when it comes to 39-year-olds, major injuries never completely heal.
Compounding that, the ankle is the worst joint for a shortstop to injure. Every move on defense is a fast-twitch explosion at the ankle. If we thought "Pastadiving" was Jeter's first name before the injury, it might get shortened to "Past" following his return from injury. In addition, pain will likely accompany sprints around the bases.
So if playing shortstop and running the bases -- two staples of Jeter's career -- are problematic, what joy will there be for him on the field?
Keep in mind, that's the best case scenario. The worst case is that he can't return at all, or he returns and re-injures the ankle, or gets hurt some other way, or just isn't the Derek Jeter of old --even the one of age 38.
It's easy to see Jeter gutting it out for a couple of months in 2013 and then concluding he can't make it through a whole season of the pain at age 40. It's not far-fetched to imagine every twinge adding to the argument that he's gotten everything he can out of his career. There's really no reason for him to drag a shell of his talent -- if that's what he becomes -- through another 162-game season to tarnish his legacy and leave a sad, withered image on our minds' retinas, the one many of us have of Willie Mays as a Met.
The Yankee captain has an $8 million player option for next year, so he wouldn't be leaving large sums of money (in baseball superstar terms) on the table if he retired. It's easy to see the Steinbrenners keeping him on the payroll for that sum in another capacity.
So here's the conclusion I believe I'd reach if I had the data: don't bank on Derek Jeter returning to star form again, and don't be surprised if last year's playoffs were effectively the end of his career.
If only I had access to big piles of data about older players and their return from injury.
Then I could write this blog post.
The one about how Derek Jeter's career could be effectively over even if he returns from his ankle injury and performs well in August and September, and even beyond.
(Which reminds me: Jeter tweeted yesterday that he's almost ready to begin his rehab assignment in the Minors. I wonder if Brian Cashman is going to respond by telling Alex Rodriguez to shut the !@#$%^&*! up.)
Somewhere out there is a warehouse of data about how 39-year-olds perform after major injuries that sideline them for eight months, which is how long the Yankee shortstop's been laid up.
My guess is that it does not bode well, not only because there aren't a whole lot of 39-year-olds performing at a high level to begin with, and not only because those who do generally play more sedentary positions like 1B or DH. Mainly it's because when it comes to 39-year-olds, major injuries never completely heal.
Compounding that, the ankle is the worst joint for a shortstop to injure. Every move on defense is a fast-twitch explosion at the ankle. If we thought "Pastadiving" was Jeter's first name before the injury, it might get shortened to "Past" following his return from injury. In addition, pain will likely accompany sprints around the bases.
So if playing shortstop and running the bases -- two staples of Jeter's career -- are problematic, what joy will there be for him on the field?
Keep in mind, that's the best case scenario. The worst case is that he can't return at all, or he returns and re-injures the ankle, or gets hurt some other way, or just isn't the Derek Jeter of old --even the one of age 38.
It's easy to see Jeter gutting it out for a couple of months in 2013 and then concluding he can't make it through a whole season of the pain at age 40. It's not far-fetched to imagine every twinge adding to the argument that he's gotten everything he can out of his career. There's really no reason for him to drag a shell of his talent -- if that's what he becomes -- through another 162-game season to tarnish his legacy and leave a sad, withered image on our minds' retinas, the one many of us have of Willie Mays as a Met.
The Yankee captain has an $8 million player option for next year, so he wouldn't be leaving large sums of money (in baseball superstar terms) on the table if he retired. It's easy to see the Steinbrenners keeping him on the payroll for that sum in another capacity.
So here's the conclusion I believe I'd reach if I had the data: don't bank on Derek Jeter returning to star form again, and don't be surprised if last year's playoffs were effectively the end of his career.
05 July 2013
Weighing In On Yasiel Puig
It's understandable why Jonathan Papelbon and Bruce Bochy feel indignant about Dodger phenom Yasiel Puig being considered for the All-Star game after just 116 plate appearances over 28 games. If Puig is selected for the game he'll displace one of their compadres who has toiled for years in pro ball awaiting his chance to take the field in the Mid-Summer Classic.
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.)
Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio.
Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.
The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.
Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.
Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.
In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?
04 July 2013
What We Know At the Halfway Mark
The old canard says that the teams in first at the All-Star break will win their divisions. Were this true, we could write off the second half of the season. Moneyball would never have been written about a sub-.500 Oakland A's team.
The first half counts for something though. It's introduced us to a few a five-tool phenoms, including a Dodger who has outplayed his higher-paid peers in just one month on the job. It's provided 51 of the 82 wins the Pirates need to reverse the engines on their 20-year suck machine. And it's answered the question "how much addition would be the subtraction from Boston of Bobby Valentine?"
Here's a team-by-team catalog of some of the other things we've learned.
Atlanta Braves -- Excellent pitching combined with three-true-outcomes (Ks, BBs and HRs) is a recipe for success. Also, Justin Upton + B.J. Upton < Kate Upton.
Washington Nationals -- Running into walls is not a recipe for success. Also, maybe some of last year was smoke and mirrors.
Philadelphia Phillies -- They're exactly what we thought they were and they're more of it every day.
New York Mets -- A great manager can keep people happy even when losses outnumber bowel movements.
Miami Marlins -- There's a baseball player named Adeiny Hechavarria.
St. Louis Cardinals -- Never underestimate an organization that loses its best hitter and best pitcher, but still gets better.
Cincinnati Reds -- They're a top contender unless Johnny Cueto gets hurt.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Great 1-12 pitching outweighs even Clint Barmes at short. They'll break .500 but the playoffs are a stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers -- They're still paying the mortgage on 2011.
Chicago Cubs -- Theo's five-year rebuilding plan is right on schedule. The plan involves four years of pungent odors at Wrigley.
Arizona Diamondbacks -- Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt and Didi Gregorious are just getting going. Heath Bell is done.
Colorado Rockies -- They're one starter away from burying the NL West.
San Francisco Giants -- They've become the anti-Giants: all hit and no pitch.
San Diego Padres -- They're upside-down: Chase Headly can't hit. Huston Street, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard can't pitch. Andrew Cashner, Jason Marquis and Evreth Carbrera are carrying the team. Doesn't matter: they're mediocre however you slice it.
L.A. Dodgers -- Buying up players from losing teams doesn't lead to winning. (Duh.)
Texas Rangers -- They're strong on both sides of the ball but without a bench they'll continue to be vulnerable.
Oakland A's -- "You got pitching in my OBP." "You got OBP in my pitching." Rieces Peanut Butter Cup!
Anaheim Angels -- Only 12 more years of Pujols and Hamilton. Worst investments since Enron. Or ARod.
Seattle Mariners -- Thank goodness for Houston.
Houston Astros -- Las Vegas says two chances in five they fail to hit 100 losses.
Detroit Tigers -- We thought they needed a closer when the season began. Turns out what they needed was a closer.
Cleveland Indians -- Even 81 games in you still don't trust them.
Kansas City Royals -- The hallucinations that prompted trading a top prospect for James Shields are now simply nightmares.
Minneota Twins -- The Padres of the American League. It might never get better.
Chicago White Sox -- When a guy batting .198 is your second best hitter, make October vacation plans. They have talent on the mound but Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn struck midnight.
Boston Red Sox -- The old guys still have it -- at least for half a season.
Baltimore Orioles -- The lightning's still in the bottle -- at least another day.
New York Yankees -- The replacements had it again -- for 60 games.
Tamp Bay Rays -- Who needs money when you have Evan Longoria and your team is named for my dad?
Toronto Blue Jays -- The big free agents who didn't have it in Miami, still don't, at least so far.
The narrative's half written. Baseball teams are like rivers -- they're never the same twice. Acquisitions and losses alter dynamics; injuries and recoveries explode expectations; the light bulb goes on for some guys; the engine runs out of coal for others. Let's recognize our All-Stars and then enjoy the second half. We're in for a humdinger.
The first half counts for something though. It's introduced us to a few a five-tool phenoms, including a Dodger who has outplayed his higher-paid peers in just one month on the job. It's provided 51 of the 82 wins the Pirates need to reverse the engines on their 20-year suck machine. And it's answered the question "how much addition would be the subtraction from Boston of Bobby Valentine?"
Here's a team-by-team catalog of some of the other things we've learned.
Atlanta Braves -- Excellent pitching combined with three-true-outcomes (Ks, BBs and HRs) is a recipe for success. Also, Justin Upton + B.J. Upton < Kate Upton.
Washington Nationals -- Running into walls is not a recipe for success. Also, maybe some of last year was smoke and mirrors.
Philadelphia Phillies -- They're exactly what we thought they were and they're more of it every day.
New York Mets -- A great manager can keep people happy even when losses outnumber bowel movements.
Miami Marlins -- There's a baseball player named Adeiny Hechavarria.
St. Louis Cardinals -- Never underestimate an organization that loses its best hitter and best pitcher, but still gets better.
Cincinnati Reds -- They're a top contender unless Johnny Cueto gets hurt.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Great 1-12 pitching outweighs even Clint Barmes at short. They'll break .500 but the playoffs are a stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers -- They're still paying the mortgage on 2011.
Chicago Cubs -- Theo's five-year rebuilding plan is right on schedule. The plan involves four years of pungent odors at Wrigley.
Arizona Diamondbacks -- Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt and Didi Gregorious are just getting going. Heath Bell is done.
Colorado Rockies -- They're one starter away from burying the NL West.
San Francisco Giants -- They've become the anti-Giants: all hit and no pitch.
San Diego Padres -- They're upside-down: Chase Headly can't hit. Huston Street, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard can't pitch. Andrew Cashner, Jason Marquis and Evreth Carbrera are carrying the team. Doesn't matter: they're mediocre however you slice it.
L.A. Dodgers -- Buying up players from losing teams doesn't lead to winning. (Duh.)
Texas Rangers -- They're strong on both sides of the ball but without a bench they'll continue to be vulnerable.
Oakland A's -- "You got pitching in my OBP." "You got OBP in my pitching." Rieces Peanut Butter Cup!
Anaheim Angels -- Only 12 more years of Pujols and Hamilton. Worst investments since Enron. Or ARod.
Seattle Mariners -- Thank goodness for Houston.
Houston Astros -- Las Vegas says two chances in five they fail to hit 100 losses.
Detroit Tigers -- We thought they needed a closer when the season began. Turns out what they needed was a closer.
Cleveland Indians -- Even 81 games in you still don't trust them.
Kansas City Royals -- The hallucinations that prompted trading a top prospect for James Shields are now simply nightmares.
Minneota Twins -- The Padres of the American League. It might never get better.
Chicago White Sox -- When a guy batting .198 is your second best hitter, make October vacation plans. They have talent on the mound but Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn struck midnight.
Boston Red Sox -- The old guys still have it -- at least for half a season.
Baltimore Orioles -- The lightning's still in the bottle -- at least another day.
New York Yankees -- The replacements had it again -- for 60 games.
Tamp Bay Rays -- Who needs money when you have Evan Longoria and your team is named for my dad?
Toronto Blue Jays -- The big free agents who didn't have it in Miami, still don't, at least so far.
The narrative's half written. Baseball teams are like rivers -- they're never the same twice. Acquisitions and losses alter dynamics; injuries and recoveries explode expectations; the light bulb goes on for some guys; the engine runs out of coal for others. Let's recognize our All-Stars and then enjoy the second half. We're in for a humdinger.
02 July 2013
What Happened To Oriole Regression?
After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.
And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.
And they still don't have any starting pitching.
The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well.
They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.
Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00.
Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.
The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can.
Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.
And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.
And they still don't have any starting pitching.
The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well.
They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.
Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00.
Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.
The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can.
Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.
30 June 2013
The Guns of August: Declaring the Wrong WAR
It was inevitable.
Seamheads like me lobby for years to get better measurements accepted into the game of baseball. Ditch the team metrics that accrue to individuals like pitcher wins, runs and RBI in favor of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), OPS (On-base average plus slugging percentage) and VORP (batting value over replacement player).
Then, after repeatedly confronted with the vast utility advantage of the new stats, the guardians of baseball finally breakdown and adopt them. Haltingly. Gingerly. Slowly. But they do it.
So now even retrograde outlets like Fox Sports and my little hometown paper reference WAR (wins against replacement) on occasion. Yea!
...And they butcher it. Well, "butcher" overstates the error and understates the problem. Butchery would be easy to correct. They miss the nuance in WAR and as a result, misuse it, mis-perceive it and misunderstand it.
WAR (and its cousin, WARP) does yeoman's work. It purports to wrap a player's entire value -- hitting, pitching, fielding, base running -- into one stat, adjusted for ballpark and competition and defensive position. It's zero-calorie, no-fat, chocolate peanut butter coffee ice cream that's high in Vitamin D and anti-oxidants.
But about every fourth gallon, there's a rat hair in the ice cream. It's a problem. It should make us all skeptical of WAR. More on that momentito.
Now, when Fox Sports or my hometown paper allude to WAR, they do so with tongue in cheek. They don't understand the stat, can't fathom the math, and consequently want to distance themselves from its conclusions. They compare the WAR of two players, but when the results don't reinforce what home runs, RBIs and pitcher wins suggest, they giggle, turn crimson and change the subject.
Here's an example: Orioles shortstop JJ Hardy (.261/.298/.452 with 15 HR) is worth 2.4 WAR while Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown (.275/.323/.552 with 21 HR) is worth just 2.2 WAR. Because my local sports columnist isn't comfortable with the narrative, he mentions the number but examines other elements of their performance before shrugging his shoulders and calling it a toss-up.
Hardy is more valuable than Brown despite a 120-point OPS deficit because a) he's being compared offensively to shortstops, as opposed to corner outfielders, b) he's a good fielder at a higher premium position, c) he plays in a home stadium less conducive to hitting safely and d) playing in the AL East means he faces tougher competition.
Now back to the rat hair in the ice cream. It's the defensive metrics that comprise part of WAR. After a decade-and-a-half of trying, the best minds in baseball research have improved immensely on fielding percentage and eyeballs. The new defensive metrics can help us determine fielding acumen, but still only in the broadest terms. They work well when several different measurement systems are combined and their time horizon is long.
One player, one season, one defensive measurement system -- that's asking for trouble. You can find dozens of ballplayers who are rated plus-plus fielders in a given year by FRAA (Baseball Prospectus's system) and below average by UZR (Fangraphs' zone rating system) or vice versa. This year, BP has Hardy at replacement level in the field while Baseball-Reference credits him with 1.2 defensive wins.
Consequently, the WAR of players at the margins -- whose defensive numbers are large -- can vary widely depending on whose defensive measures we're using. It can make the difference of two wins in a season, the gap between a 2.5 win regular and a 4.5 win All-Star.
It's even more problematic for pitchers, whose WAR is calculated by very complicated calculations that attempt to quantify the defense behind them and then strip it from their results. (This is what's called Fielding Independent Pitching.) The high margin of error in those equations can polish or stain a whole pitching staff.
We're going to hear a lot more talk of WAR as the season wears on. We should be wary of it, but not afraid of it. We should understand why its use requires a shaker-full of salt. And we should understand that for most players, particularly at high-offense positions, it's a very tasty new treat.
Seamheads like me lobby for years to get better measurements accepted into the game of baseball. Ditch the team metrics that accrue to individuals like pitcher wins, runs and RBI in favor of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), OPS (On-base average plus slugging percentage) and VORP (batting value over replacement player).
Then, after repeatedly confronted with the vast utility advantage of the new stats, the guardians of baseball finally breakdown and adopt them. Haltingly. Gingerly. Slowly. But they do it.
So now even retrograde outlets like Fox Sports and my little hometown paper reference WAR (wins against replacement) on occasion. Yea!
...And they butcher it. Well, "butcher" overstates the error and understates the problem. Butchery would be easy to correct. They miss the nuance in WAR and as a result, misuse it, mis-perceive it and misunderstand it.
WAR (and its cousin, WARP) does yeoman's work. It purports to wrap a player's entire value -- hitting, pitching, fielding, base running -- into one stat, adjusted for ballpark and competition and defensive position. It's zero-calorie, no-fat, chocolate peanut butter coffee ice cream that's high in Vitamin D and anti-oxidants.
But about every fourth gallon, there's a rat hair in the ice cream. It's a problem. It should make us all skeptical of WAR. More on that momentito.
Now, when Fox Sports or my hometown paper allude to WAR, they do so with tongue in cheek. They don't understand the stat, can't fathom the math, and consequently want to distance themselves from its conclusions. They compare the WAR of two players, but when the results don't reinforce what home runs, RBIs and pitcher wins suggest, they giggle, turn crimson and change the subject.
Here's an example: Orioles shortstop JJ Hardy (.261/.298/.452 with 15 HR) is worth 2.4 WAR while Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown (.275/.323/.552 with 21 HR) is worth just 2.2 WAR. Because my local sports columnist isn't comfortable with the narrative, he mentions the number but examines other elements of their performance before shrugging his shoulders and calling it a toss-up.
Hardy is more valuable than Brown despite a 120-point OPS deficit because a) he's being compared offensively to shortstops, as opposed to corner outfielders, b) he's a good fielder at a higher premium position, c) he plays in a home stadium less conducive to hitting safely and d) playing in the AL East means he faces tougher competition.
Now back to the rat hair in the ice cream. It's the defensive metrics that comprise part of WAR. After a decade-and-a-half of trying, the best minds in baseball research have improved immensely on fielding percentage and eyeballs. The new defensive metrics can help us determine fielding acumen, but still only in the broadest terms. They work well when several different measurement systems are combined and their time horizon is long.
One player, one season, one defensive measurement system -- that's asking for trouble. You can find dozens of ballplayers who are rated plus-plus fielders in a given year by FRAA (Baseball Prospectus's system) and below average by UZR (Fangraphs' zone rating system) or vice versa. This year, BP has Hardy at replacement level in the field while Baseball-Reference credits him with 1.2 defensive wins.
Consequently, the WAR of players at the margins -- whose defensive numbers are large -- can vary widely depending on whose defensive measures we're using. It can make the difference of two wins in a season, the gap between a 2.5 win regular and a 4.5 win All-Star.
It's even more problematic for pitchers, whose WAR is calculated by very complicated calculations that attempt to quantify the defense behind them and then strip it from their results. (This is what's called Fielding Independent Pitching.) The high margin of error in those equations can polish or stain a whole pitching staff.
We're going to hear a lot more talk of WAR as the season wears on. We should be wary of it, but not afraid of it. We should understand why its use requires a shaker-full of salt. And we should understand that for most players, particularly at high-offense positions, it's a very tasty new treat.
29 June 2013
Who Doesn't Belong On Your All-Star Ballot
Many Americans vote for their President, US Senator and House member without much thought. They vote for the guy they like, or listen to one speech and make up their minds or enter the voting booth not sure and pull one lever or another based on whim.
But the MLB All-Star ballot, that's a sacred rite! So, okay, there's not much point in treating the vote as if lives depend on it.
On the other hand, it's reasonable to avoid blatant injustice if you can. So let's take a look at the All-Star ballot. Here's mine:
AL
1B - Chris Davis, BAL -- maybe the first half MVP
2B - Robinson Cano, NY -- the best player having the best season
SS - Jed Lowrie, OAK -- in a close vote
3B - Miguel Cabrera, DET -- any questions?
DH - David Ortiz, BOS -- there's really no one else
C - Joe Mauer, MIN -- no contest
OF - Mike Trout, ANA -- best in the majors
OF - Adam Jones, BAL -- because he slugs and plays center
OF - Alex Gordon, KC -- he does it all
NL
1B - Joey Votto, CIN -- the best player having the best season
2B - Matt Carpenter, StL -- No track record, but he's by far the best this season
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL -- he's hurt, but give him the honor and then replace him with Segura
3B - David Wright, NY -- head and shoulders above the crowd
C - Yadier Molina, StL -- his defense gets the nod over Posey
OF - Shin-soo Choo, CIN -- he just gets on and on and on
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT -- stud's getting it done again
OF - Domonic Brown, PHI -- gave him the nod over Gerardo Parra
Others whom you might have reasonably selected:
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ at NL 1B -- He's unlikely to maintain his .300+ average while Votto will
Jason Kipnis, CLE at AL 2B -- A breakout with the bat, but Cano does that every year
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at AL 2B -- He's got the track record but lacks Cano's power and durability
Marco Scutaro, SF at NL 2B -- Another nice season, but w/o power pales compared to Carpenter
Jhonny Peralta, DET at AL SS -- Hitting better than Lowrie and both are defensively suspect
Jean Segura, MIL at NL SS -- Hard to vote for a player based on 80 games when there's a real option
Buster Posey, SF at NL C -- You know he'll keep hitting like this; Molina probably won't
Brett Gardner, NYY at AL OF -- Splitting hairs left him off
Gerardo Parra, AZ, at NL OF -- See above note
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at NL OF -- Denver casts a shadow on his big numbers
Michael Cuddyer, COL at NL OF -- The hitting streak will end for this .805 OPS lifetime hitter
Ryan Braun, MIL at NL OF -- missing the power and maybe the credibility
Torii Hunter, ANA; Coco Crisp, OAK; Michael Bourn, CLE at AL OF -- good players getting it done in '13.
Here are some players who will get votes but whom you can't reasonably vote for:
Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Curtis Granderson, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp or anyone else who's sat this spring more than he's stood.
Yasiel Puig, because of the small sample size. The Puig phenomenon belongs at the game but he shouldn't replace someone who has earned the start all year.
Evan Longoria or Manny Machado. They're raking and deserve to be in Flushing, but voting for anyone besides Miguel Cabrera should freeze your account and void your ballot.
Edwin Encarnacion, James Loney or anyone at AL first base besides Chris Davis. If hitting .330/.404/.704 with 28 homers doesn't earn your vote, no one does.
Melky Cabrera because you thought M. Cabrera on the ballot meant Miguel and you don't know that Miguel isn't an outfielder.
Players batting .249/.298/.367 who are on your favorite team.
Albert Pujols. A vote for him indicates you are not paying sufficient attention to merit even one vote, much less the 75 cast from my computer. Long live democracy!
But the MLB All-Star ballot, that's a sacred rite! So, okay, there's not much point in treating the vote as if lives depend on it.
On the other hand, it's reasonable to avoid blatant injustice if you can. So let's take a look at the All-Star ballot. Here's mine:
AL
1B - Chris Davis, BAL -- maybe the first half MVP
2B - Robinson Cano, NY -- the best player having the best season
SS - Jed Lowrie, OAK -- in a close vote
3B - Miguel Cabrera, DET -- any questions?
DH - David Ortiz, BOS -- there's really no one else
C - Joe Mauer, MIN -- no contest
OF - Mike Trout, ANA -- best in the majors
OF - Adam Jones, BAL -- because he slugs and plays center
OF - Alex Gordon, KC -- he does it all
NL
1B - Joey Votto, CIN -- the best player having the best season
2B - Matt Carpenter, StL -- No track record, but he's by far the best this season
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL -- he's hurt, but give him the honor and then replace him with Segura
3B - David Wright, NY -- head and shoulders above the crowd
C - Yadier Molina, StL -- his defense gets the nod over Posey
OF - Shin-soo Choo, CIN -- he just gets on and on and on
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT -- stud's getting it done again
OF - Domonic Brown, PHI -- gave him the nod over Gerardo Parra
Others whom you might have reasonably selected:
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ at NL 1B -- He's unlikely to maintain his .300+ average while Votto will
Jason Kipnis, CLE at AL 2B -- A breakout with the bat, but Cano does that every year
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at AL 2B -- He's got the track record but lacks Cano's power and durability
Marco Scutaro, SF at NL 2B -- Another nice season, but w/o power pales compared to Carpenter
Jhonny Peralta, DET at AL SS -- Hitting better than Lowrie and both are defensively suspect
Jean Segura, MIL at NL SS -- Hard to vote for a player based on 80 games when there's a real option
Buster Posey, SF at NL C -- You know he'll keep hitting like this; Molina probably won't
Brett Gardner, NYY at AL OF -- Splitting hairs left him off
Gerardo Parra, AZ, at NL OF -- See above note
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at NL OF -- Denver casts a shadow on his big numbers
Michael Cuddyer, COL at NL OF -- The hitting streak will end for this .805 OPS lifetime hitter
Ryan Braun, MIL at NL OF -- missing the power and maybe the credibility
Torii Hunter, ANA; Coco Crisp, OAK; Michael Bourn, CLE at AL OF -- good players getting it done in '13.
Here are some players who will get votes but whom you can't reasonably vote for:
Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Curtis Granderson, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp or anyone else who's sat this spring more than he's stood.
Yasiel Puig, because of the small sample size. The Puig phenomenon belongs at the game but he shouldn't replace someone who has earned the start all year.
Evan Longoria or Manny Machado. They're raking and deserve to be in Flushing, but voting for anyone besides Miguel Cabrera should freeze your account and void your ballot.
Edwin Encarnacion, James Loney or anyone at AL first base besides Chris Davis. If hitting .330/.404/.704 with 28 homers doesn't earn your vote, no one does.
Melky Cabrera because you thought M. Cabrera on the ballot meant Miguel and you don't know that Miguel isn't an outfielder.
Players batting .249/.298/.367 who are on your favorite team.
Albert Pujols. A vote for him indicates you are not paying sufficient attention to merit even one vote, much less the 75 cast from my computer. Long live democracy!
25 June 2013
Strange But True Baseball Facts
Mike Trout's 2013 is already the 42nd best age-21 season of all time by Wins Against Replacement. After the greatest age-20 season ever, he's on pace for the greatest age-21 season ever. That's despite stealing fewer bases, shining less in the field and losing 40 points on his BABIP. He's been Troutstanding. But his team is hampered by an Albertross and a Hamildone.
Heath Bell: Batters are hitting .324/.352/.574 against him. He's allowed more home runs and uncorked more wild pitchers this season than all of last year. Yet he's saved 13 in 16 attempts.
The Orioles' Adam Jones led the league with seven RBIs last week. He hit .240/.240/.400. Thhhpppp. Knocking in six runs were Carlos Pena (.150/.190/.450), Victor Martinez (.160/.290/.320) and Kendrys Morales (.200/.286/.320.) But I'm sure they're all clutch.
The Astros are now on pace for a record 1,535 strikeouts. Unless they get relegated to Triple-A in mid-season.
Rick Ankiel has whiffed 60 times in 136 plate appearances, the worst contact rate ever in that many trips to the plate. Which is why there probably won't be many more.
Adam Dunn, .184/.280/.447, is the fourth best hitter on the White Sox this year. You might want to take a pass on playoff ticket options.
Gerardo Parra has attempted 15 steals this year and failed nine times, a 40% success rate. The Major League average this season is 73%. Parra's career success rate is 62%.
Bryce Harper is rehabbing from a knee injury at Single-A Potomac. He is the youngest player on the team.
Dodger infielder Luis Cruz hits .125/.175/.169 in 148 plate appearances. He must be some fielder. (To be fair, he is; he plays second, third and short; and last year he hit .297/.322/.431 in 296 PA.)
The Cards' Edward Mujica is the only pitcher in baseball with more than one save but no decisions. He has 21 saves. #WhoCares
Forty-one-year-old Raul Ibanez leads the Mariners in home runs and RBI. He has a .282 OBP. Maybe they should bring back Junior.
Much of this came from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
23 June 2013
17 June 2013
Who Has Quality Wins and Losses
Previous discussion in this space outlined the vast advantages of tying wins and losses to a matrix of what constitutes quality starts. Doing so demonstrates how Jason Hammel of the Orioles, who sports a 7-4 record, in fact has provided his team with only five good chances to win in 14 tries. Conversely, The White Sox' Chris Sale, whose 5-5 record suggests middling performance, should be 10-2 based on the quality of his starts.
Here are some other insights that Quality Wins provides on starting pitcher records:
The Phillies' Cole Hamels is 2-10. He should be 10-5. His won-loss record not only tells us nothing about his performance, it completely misleads us.
The Cardinals' Lance Lynn is 9-1. He should be 9-5. He's avoided four losses because his teammates have bailed him out.
Here are some other Quality Win revelations with the pitcher's name, his Quality Win record in bold and his actual W-L tally in parentheses.
Bud Norris 10-3 (5-6)
Patrick Corbin 10-3 (9-0)
The Astros' righty and D'backs lefty have performed similarly, but W-L aficionados would perceive them quite differently.
Joe Saunders, 8-6 (5-6)
Yovani Gallardo 6-9 (6-6)
An above average Mariner has a losing record while a bad Brewer appears to be middling.
Stephen Strasburg, 8-5 (3-6)
Gio Gonzalez 9-5 (3-3)
Evidently the Nats' problem is more offensive than defensive.
Clayton Kershaw, 12-3 (5-4)
Jon Lester, 6-9 (6-4)
The Dodgers' ace and the Red Sox' ace have similar records, but only because one has been victimized and the other propped up, by his mates.
Brandon Morrow 3-7 (2-3)
Phil Hughes 7-6 (3-5)
Again, similar records; divergent paths.
Mat Latos 9-5 (6-0)
Shaun Marcum 3-7 (0-8)
The undefeated Red should have lost five times. The winless Met has pitched well enough for victory a few times.
Lucas Harrell 10-5 (5-7)
Ricky Nolasco, 8-6 (3-7)
A.J. Burnett 9-5 (4-6)
Marco Estrada 4-8 (4-4)
Estrada has the best record of the group despite the worst results.
This is based on a 2000-2013 standard, which includes a goodly chunk of the longball era. You might be thinking that had we limited the benchmark to 2011-2013, more of these wins would be losses, or put another way, a starter would have to pitch more innings per run allowed in order to notch the W.
Currently, this is the matrix:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.
Subtract three percent from the scoring and the matrix becomes this:
Go five innings. Give up one run or none.
Go at least five-and-two-thirds innings and give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch seven innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight-and-two-thirds innings and give up four runs or fewer.
As it turns out, it doesn't make much difference. After recalculating the Quality Win records of eight guys listed above, a grand total of one win transformed into a loss.
The bottom line is, if you're addicted to pitching wins, here's a formula that hews closer to the quality of the start. And as these examples attest, it can make a big difference in how you perceive a pitcher.
Here are some other insights that Quality Wins provides on starting pitcher records:
The Phillies' Cole Hamels is 2-10. He should be 10-5. His won-loss record not only tells us nothing about his performance, it completely misleads us.
The Cardinals' Lance Lynn is 9-1. He should be 9-5. He's avoided four losses because his teammates have bailed him out.
Here are some other Quality Win revelations with the pitcher's name, his Quality Win record in bold and his actual W-L tally in parentheses.
Bud Norris 10-3 (5-6)
Patrick Corbin 10-3 (9-0)
The Astros' righty and D'backs lefty have performed similarly, but W-L aficionados would perceive them quite differently.
Joe Saunders, 8-6 (5-6)
Yovani Gallardo 6-9 (6-6)
An above average Mariner has a losing record while a bad Brewer appears to be middling.
Stephen Strasburg, 8-5 (3-6)
Gio Gonzalez 9-5 (3-3)
Evidently the Nats' problem is more offensive than defensive.
Clayton Kershaw, 12-3 (5-4)
Jon Lester, 6-9 (6-4)
The Dodgers' ace and the Red Sox' ace have similar records, but only because one has been victimized and the other propped up, by his mates.
Brandon Morrow 3-7 (2-3)
Phil Hughes 7-6 (3-5)
Again, similar records; divergent paths.
Mat Latos 9-5 (6-0)
Shaun Marcum 3-7 (0-8)
The undefeated Red should have lost five times. The winless Met has pitched well enough for victory a few times.
Lucas Harrell 10-5 (5-7)
Ricky Nolasco, 8-6 (3-7)
A.J. Burnett 9-5 (4-6)
Marco Estrada 4-8 (4-4)
Estrada has the best record of the group despite the worst results.
This is based on a 2000-2013 standard, which includes a goodly chunk of the longball era. You might be thinking that had we limited the benchmark to 2011-2013, more of these wins would be losses, or put another way, a starter would have to pitch more innings per run allowed in order to notch the W.
Currently, this is the matrix:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.
Subtract three percent from the scoring and the matrix becomes this:
Go five innings. Give up one run or none.
Go at least five-and-two-thirds innings and give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch seven innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight-and-two-thirds innings and give up four runs or fewer.
As it turns out, it doesn't make much difference. After recalculating the Quality Win records of eight guys listed above, a grand total of one win transformed into a loss.
The bottom line is, if you're addicted to pitching wins, here's a formula that hews closer to the quality of the start. And as these examples attest, it can make a big difference in how you perceive a pitcher.
15 June 2013
A New Way to Credit Pitcher Wns
Pitching wins are a team event credited to an individual who may have actually inhibited a team win. They too weakly correlate to good pitching to serve as a proxy when pitching acumen is being analyzed.
Efforts to find a single statistic that encapsulates good pitching have proved elusive and have been completely disengaged from the ultimate goal of a starting pitcher -- winning the game. They've also become a tangle of higher mathematics incomprehensible to the average fan.
Suppose we could invent one simple statistic that credited pitchers when they pitched sufficiently long and successfully to give their team a better-than-even chance of winning? That would trump mere pitching wins and be easy to use. You can see the whole discussion here in Matt Hunter's piece in Beyond the Box Score. We'll call his stat Quality Wins.
We know that since Year 2000, teams whose starting pitcher goes at least six-and-a-third innings and allows three runs or fewer win their games more than half the time. It's the reason that six-and-three is considered a quality start.
We can expand that matrix, starting with at least five innings of work, to create a continuum of Quality Win performances:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.
Keep in mind that this is runs, not earned runs. Defense is an issue on every ball hit, not just the errors.
Let's examine how that might have worked in the games of of June 14:
In the Brewers-Reds tilt, decided in the 10th inning, neither starter was credited with a win, though Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo earned one. He got through two outs in the eighth inning and surrendered three runs. His opponent, Kyle Lohse, pitched six full frames but allowed three runs to cross the plate, saddling Milwaukee with a better-than-even chance of losing (which they ultimately did.) He would be charged with a loss.
Chris Sale threw an eight-inning complete game for the White Sox in their 2-1 loss to Houston, allowing five hits and one walk while fanning 14. Under the Quality Win system, he gets a win for his effort. His counterpart, Eric Bedard, also earns a Quality Win for lasting six frames of one-run ball.
No Quality Win for either starter in the Phillies' come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Rockies. Kyle Kendrick and Juan Nicasio escaped without losses despite four-inning, seven-run and six-inning, five run debacles. Under the new system, each is charged with an L.
In four other games the losing pitcher would get credited with a Quality Win and in the Indians-Nationals contest, where both starters were gone when the outcome was settled, each would be credited with a Quality Win.
In all, on this low-scoring Friday night:
Five starters charged with losses would instead get credit for pitching well and giving their team a good chance of winning.
Three hurlers who no-decisioned would instead get wins.
Three others with no decision would instead take responsibility for a loss.
The seamheads would justifiably complain about various shortcomings of this statistic.
All true. This is not a leap towards the Holy Grail, just a refinement that gives us won-loss records that relate to actual performance.
Since no pitching stat is foolproof, and since this is replacing pitching wins, which is nearly useless, the standard is not perfection but mere relevance and ease of use. Moreover, statheads can refine it to account for many of those issues. For example, a pitcher could be credited with only the percentage of a win he provides in every game he starts. And the stat could be adjusted for ballpark, defense, etc., just as others are. These enhancements would strengthen the "win" statistic but render it difficult to calculate. The result would be a fielding-independent stat represented not as ERA, as is currently the case, but as a won-loss record.
It's a small step, but it would expose the starters with great records despite lousy performances (I'm looking at you, Jason Hammel of Baltimore, 7-4, 5.24 with a 1.5 WHIP; would be 5-9 in Quality Wins) and exonerate high achievers with bad teammates (Chris Sale, 5-5, 2.43 and a 0.9 WHIP; would be 10-2 in Quality Wins).
Efforts to find a single statistic that encapsulates good pitching have proved elusive and have been completely disengaged from the ultimate goal of a starting pitcher -- winning the game. They've also become a tangle of higher mathematics incomprehensible to the average fan.
Suppose we could invent one simple statistic that credited pitchers when they pitched sufficiently long and successfully to give their team a better-than-even chance of winning? That would trump mere pitching wins and be easy to use. You can see the whole discussion here in Matt Hunter's piece in Beyond the Box Score. We'll call his stat Quality Wins.
We know that since Year 2000, teams whose starting pitcher goes at least six-and-a-third innings and allows three runs or fewer win their games more than half the time. It's the reason that six-and-three is considered a quality start.
We can expand that matrix, starting with at least five innings of work, to create a continuum of Quality Win performances:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.
Keep in mind that this is runs, not earned runs. Defense is an issue on every ball hit, not just the errors.
Let's examine how that might have worked in the games of of June 14:
In the Brewers-Reds tilt, decided in the 10th inning, neither starter was credited with a win, though Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo earned one. He got through two outs in the eighth inning and surrendered three runs. His opponent, Kyle Lohse, pitched six full frames but allowed three runs to cross the plate, saddling Milwaukee with a better-than-even chance of losing (which they ultimately did.) He would be charged with a loss.
Chris Sale threw an eight-inning complete game for the White Sox in their 2-1 loss to Houston, allowing five hits and one walk while fanning 14. Under the Quality Win system, he gets a win for his effort. His counterpart, Eric Bedard, also earns a Quality Win for lasting six frames of one-run ball.
No Quality Win for either starter in the Phillies' come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Rockies. Kyle Kendrick and Juan Nicasio escaped without losses despite four-inning, seven-run and six-inning, five run debacles. Under the new system, each is charged with an L.
In four other games the losing pitcher would get credited with a Quality Win and in the Indians-Nationals contest, where both starters were gone when the outcome was settled, each would be credited with a Quality Win.
In all, on this low-scoring Friday night:
Five starters charged with losses would instead get credit for pitching well and giving their team a good chance of winning.
Three hurlers who no-decisioned would instead get wins.
Three others with no decision would instead take responsibility for a loss.
The seamheads would justifiably complain about various shortcomings of this statistic.
- First, it fails to credit a pitcher any more for giving his team a 97.6% chance of winning (nine shutout innings) than for giving them a 50.5% chance (six and a third innings; three runs).
- Second, it is divorced from actual wins, so a pitcher could be credited with 20 "wins" even if his team ultimately lost every game. (And both starters could be credited with wins or charged with losses in the same game.)
- Third, it fails to take into account all the other elements that affect run scoring, like defense, ballpark, relief pitching, weather conditions and luck.
- Last, it has no predictive value because it doesn't examine how the pitcher performed, just what resulted.
All true. This is not a leap towards the Holy Grail, just a refinement that gives us won-loss records that relate to actual performance.
Since no pitching stat is foolproof, and since this is replacing pitching wins, which is nearly useless, the standard is not perfection but mere relevance and ease of use. Moreover, statheads can refine it to account for many of those issues. For example, a pitcher could be credited with only the percentage of a win he provides in every game he starts. And the stat could be adjusted for ballpark, defense, etc., just as others are. These enhancements would strengthen the "win" statistic but render it difficult to calculate. The result would be a fielding-independent stat represented not as ERA, as is currently the case, but as a won-loss record.
It's a small step, but it would expose the starters with great records despite lousy performances (I'm looking at you, Jason Hammel of Baltimore, 7-4, 5.24 with a 1.5 WHIP; would be 5-9 in Quality Wins) and exonerate high achievers with bad teammates (Chris Sale, 5-5, 2.43 and a 0.9 WHIP; would be 10-2 in Quality Wins).
13 June 2013
Is It Time To Give Up On the Blue Jays?
Sabermetricians expend a lot of electrons discussing the stabilization of batting and pitching statistics. It's helpful to know how long players can be "hot" or "cold" before the record reflects their actual ability.
In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?
Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)
Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.
Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated?
I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.
This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.
"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.
It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.
Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.
If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?
Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.
In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?
Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)
Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.
Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated?
I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.
This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.
"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.
It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.
Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.
If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?
Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.
07 June 2013
Dipping Their Toe In Knowledge: The Kansas City Royals Shake Up Their Lineup
In 2005, after 35 years as a Kansas City Royals fan, I renounced my affiliation and took up with the Washington Nationals. It had finally become evident that while I cared for the team, the owner, David Glass, did not. He operated the franchise like a WalMart, of which he had been CEO, which is to say his primary concern was earning a profit.
So Glass sucked the franchise dry and ran it on the cheap, relying on low-cost young talent to induce the flipping of turnstiles before earning their freedom.
In the ensuing eight years, KC is 506-685, a .425 winning percentage. This year, their 25-32 record is mostly attributable to their work in the batter's box: seven of their 11 most-used batters sport OPS+ of 80 or less. In other words, much of their starting lineup is at least 20% worse than average, including keystoner Chris Getz, who, at .207/.267/.289, is only the second-worst regular in the lineup.
The entire team has struck 30 home runs, three fewer than the Orioles' first baseman and shortstop.
Their manager, lightly-regarded Ned Yost, has not wasted any time perusing the newest research on game strategy. So, for example, he's given sabermetric punching bag Jeff Francoeur 167 plate appearances despite a predictable .213/.246/.319 performance. (Actually, it's not the batting average or lack of power that are so lamentable, since both of those can increase over the course of the season. It's the 3% walk rate, which tends not to change much over time and which would keep his OBP below average for an outfielder even if he batted .300.)
When it comes to lineup construction, it's no surprise that Yost has clung to the old ways. Before there was research that could muddy the waters with annoying "facts," managers arranged lineups by folk wisdom, some of which proved wanting. They batted a punch and judy lightning bolt first, a speedy bat handler second, the best hitter third and the slugger fourth.
Hundreds of studies later, covering tens of thousands of games, there is a whole matrix of rules for optimal lineup construction, which can be summarized this way:
1. Bat your best hitters at the front of the order so they get to the plate more.
2. Table-setters in the first two positions need high on base percentages.
3. Alternate handedness as much as possible.
4. Beyond that, it doesn't matter much.
Managers still walking among the great lizards fail the test most often with respect to Rule 2 (and by extension Rule 1). For example, throwback strategist Dusty Baker bats shortstop Zach Cozart and his .270 OBP in the two spot, costing the Reds bits of runs every game.
That's exactly the error Ned Yost makes, albeit with fewer options than Baker has. Yost hits the Royals' best player, Alex Gordon (.315/.360/.468), at the top of the lineup and then follows him with speedy, punchless shortstop Alcides Escobar. The Gordon choice is defensible because he's likely to author the top OBP on the team.
As for Escobar, remember him from his Milwaukee days? His Kansas City glory? I didn't think so. He might not be the worst hitter in the Royals' starting lineup, but if you made the case you wouldn't get an argument. That's the guy Yost sends to the plate the second most often.
But! Earlier this week, Yost finally caved to the seamheads employed by the team (though one wonders why it bothers) and allowed them to re-arrange the order. Against a RHP, they dropped Escobar to the nine hole and moved first baseman Eric Hosmer, a .273/.332/.440 lifetime hitter against righties, up to second.
When asked whether he'd extend the experiment following a four-run effort the first night, Yost replied, "We'll see how it works tomorrow." (They scored seven the following night.) Yost is understandably wary, in as much as the new lineup represents a repudiation of everything he's believed for all his decades in cleats, but even a stubborn innumerate should be able to understand that a game or two is an insufficient sample size for testing a strategy that might boost scoring by a run every few games.
Obviously, optimal lineup construction is only optimal for the lineup in question. No batting order rife with dead weight, like KC's, can be transformed into the '27 Yankees simply by rearranging the uniforms. The improvement on offense that a more rational batting order conveys might bump the Royals to .500, but no further, and only if they improve elsewhere as well. But the decision to start listening to what the research says could transform the entire organization and produce occasional contenders.
The likes of Ned Yost probably won't be there to experience it. And I'll stick with my Nats all the same.
So Glass sucked the franchise dry and ran it on the cheap, relying on low-cost young talent to induce the flipping of turnstiles before earning their freedom.
In the ensuing eight years, KC is 506-685, a .425 winning percentage. This year, their 25-32 record is mostly attributable to their work in the batter's box: seven of their 11 most-used batters sport OPS+ of 80 or less. In other words, much of their starting lineup is at least 20% worse than average, including keystoner Chris Getz, who, at .207/.267/.289, is only the second-worst regular in the lineup.
The entire team has struck 30 home runs, three fewer than the Orioles' first baseman and shortstop.
Their manager, lightly-regarded Ned Yost, has not wasted any time perusing the newest research on game strategy. So, for example, he's given sabermetric punching bag Jeff Francoeur 167 plate appearances despite a predictable .213/.246/.319 performance. (Actually, it's not the batting average or lack of power that are so lamentable, since both of those can increase over the course of the season. It's the 3% walk rate, which tends not to change much over time and which would keep his OBP below average for an outfielder even if he batted .300.)
When it comes to lineup construction, it's no surprise that Yost has clung to the old ways. Before there was research that could muddy the waters with annoying "facts," managers arranged lineups by folk wisdom, some of which proved wanting. They batted a punch and judy lightning bolt first, a speedy bat handler second, the best hitter third and the slugger fourth.
Hundreds of studies later, covering tens of thousands of games, there is a whole matrix of rules for optimal lineup construction, which can be summarized this way:
1. Bat your best hitters at the front of the order so they get to the plate more.
2. Table-setters in the first two positions need high on base percentages.
3. Alternate handedness as much as possible.
4. Beyond that, it doesn't matter much.
Managers still walking among the great lizards fail the test most often with respect to Rule 2 (and by extension Rule 1). For example, throwback strategist Dusty Baker bats shortstop Zach Cozart and his .270 OBP in the two spot, costing the Reds bits of runs every game.
That's exactly the error Ned Yost makes, albeit with fewer options than Baker has. Yost hits the Royals' best player, Alex Gordon (.315/.360/.468), at the top of the lineup and then follows him with speedy, punchless shortstop Alcides Escobar. The Gordon choice is defensible because he's likely to author the top OBP on the team.
As for Escobar, remember him from his Milwaukee days? His Kansas City glory? I didn't think so. He might not be the worst hitter in the Royals' starting lineup, but if you made the case you wouldn't get an argument. That's the guy Yost sends to the plate the second most often.
But! Earlier this week, Yost finally caved to the seamheads employed by the team (though one wonders why it bothers) and allowed them to re-arrange the order. Against a RHP, they dropped Escobar to the nine hole and moved first baseman Eric Hosmer, a .273/.332/.440 lifetime hitter against righties, up to second.
When asked whether he'd extend the experiment following a four-run effort the first night, Yost replied, "We'll see how it works tomorrow." (They scored seven the following night.) Yost is understandably wary, in as much as the new lineup represents a repudiation of everything he's believed for all his decades in cleats, but even a stubborn innumerate should be able to understand that a game or two is an insufficient sample size for testing a strategy that might boost scoring by a run every few games.
Obviously, optimal lineup construction is only optimal for the lineup in question. No batting order rife with dead weight, like KC's, can be transformed into the '27 Yankees simply by rearranging the uniforms. The improvement on offense that a more rational batting order conveys might bump the Royals to .500, but no further, and only if they improve elsewhere as well. But the decision to start listening to what the research says could transform the entire organization and produce occasional contenders.
The likes of Ned Yost probably won't be there to experience it. And I'll stick with my Nats all the same.
06 June 2013
100-Game Suspensions? Yeah, Sure.
If you want to see sports journalism in all its raging, frothy, fulminating glory, take a peek at the coverage of Biogenesis frontman Tony Bosch's upcoming testimony before the sachems of Major League Baseball.
The Story: Twenty-two ballers, most of them Major Leaguers, may be named in documents that Bosch could provide to MLB that would suggest that they had purchased banned performance enhancing drugs. If the evidence is sufficiently strong, baseball could seek to suspend those named for as much as 100 games under the provision that they had committed two offenses -- procuring the banned substances and lying about it. The players' union would inevitably fight the unilateral punishments with all their considerable might, questioning the process, the evidence and the rationale in an appeal that would be arduous and uncertain.
The Broadcast Coverage: ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod. ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod talking to pretty women. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension!
If Bosch's testimony is worth the receipts he'll allegedly hand over, there will be intrigue aplenty in this story, with all the twists and turns of the Amanda Cox murder case. So we'll all be following it. But we're a long, long way from any 100-game suspensions.
For ARod. Or Ryan Braun.
The Story: Twenty-two ballers, most of them Major Leaguers, may be named in documents that Bosch could provide to MLB that would suggest that they had purchased banned performance enhancing drugs. If the evidence is sufficiently strong, baseball could seek to suspend those named for as much as 100 games under the provision that they had committed two offenses -- procuring the banned substances and lying about it. The players' union would inevitably fight the unilateral punishments with all their considerable might, questioning the process, the evidence and the rationale in an appeal that would be arduous and uncertain.
The Broadcast Coverage: ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod. ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod talking to pretty women. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension!
If Bosch's testimony is worth the receipts he'll allegedly hand over, there will be intrigue aplenty in this story, with all the twists and turns of the Amanda Cox murder case. So we'll all be following it. But we're a long, long way from any 100-game suspensions.
For ARod. Or Ryan Braun.
02 June 2013
Amazing But True Statistics At the One-Third Mark
Baltimore's Chris
Davis has hit 20 homers and slugged .766. That's more home runs than the
entire Seattle Mariner infield, including the catcher. It's a higher
slugging percentage than any two Mariner infielders.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.
The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.
Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.
The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.
Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.
The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year. That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.
Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.
Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.
Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk.
Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.
D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts.
Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.
Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.
Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.
01 June 2013
Youth Will Be Served
The best shortstop in the National League so far this year is leading the circuit in batting average, hits and triples, sports a .945 OPS and entered the season with all of 44 games jammed into his MLB toolbelt. He's Milwaukee's Jean Segura, a 23-year-old Dominican and odds are you don't even know how to pronounce his name. (It's Gene.)
Segura is part of a wave of accomplished preemies in the Majors this year. Indeed, he's ranked just 22nd on Athlon Sports' list of the best players under 25 even though he's raking at the prime defensive position and posting three wins of value in just 52 games. Keep in mind that four wins over a full season is star level.
Amid the waning dominance of one-time stars Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and others (though not Miguel Cabrera or Mariano Rivera), it's nice to have new perennials like Strasburg, Trout and Harper to take their place.
You've heard of those three and will continue to for a decade, at least. They are likely to be transcendent even among the sport's celestial bodies. But a quick glance through the names listed ahead of Segura suggest we're in a Renaissance in the game.
Orioles hot cornerman Manny Machado is living up to his highbrow pedigree (.877 OPS) at age 20. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo at short and first respectively, give Cubs fans hope for, say, 2015 and beyond. Rizzo, 23 sports an .813 OPS with 25 homers and 32 doubles in his 140 games with the Cubs. Castro, also 23 and in his fourth full season, boasts two All-Star berths and 10 wins of value. And big Cardinal hurler Shelby Miller has just 16 MLB starts, but he's already overpowering the best hitters in the world (7-3, 1.89, more Ks than innings.)
Miller shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, inasmuch as he's a Cardinal. The Redbirds have a long history of churning out fine moundsmen like ice cream. Indeed, recent St. Louis draftees now in the rotation, like Miller, Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal, are a combined 16-4, 2.54 with nearly a strikeout-per-frame.
For the last few weeks we've been treated to another potential phenom as Rangers' middle infielder Jurickson Profar, just two years removed from high school, is hitting .333 in his first 10 games. Teaming in the Texas infield with Elvis Andrus, a worldly 24-year-old five-year veteran, this pair is demonstrating that youth will be served.
It's not the number of prodigies that feels unusual; it's their raw youth. Among the most promising of those named, Machado, Trout, Harper and Profar can't legally drain a postgame brew. Look for several of these names to get called again in a couple of decades -- five years after they retire.
Segura is part of a wave of accomplished preemies in the Majors this year. Indeed, he's ranked just 22nd on Athlon Sports' list of the best players under 25 even though he's raking at the prime defensive position and posting three wins of value in just 52 games. Keep in mind that four wins over a full season is star level.
Amid the waning dominance of one-time stars Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and others (though not Miguel Cabrera or Mariano Rivera), it's nice to have new perennials like Strasburg, Trout and Harper to take their place.
You've heard of those three and will continue to for a decade, at least. They are likely to be transcendent even among the sport's celestial bodies. But a quick glance through the names listed ahead of Segura suggest we're in a Renaissance in the game.
Orioles hot cornerman Manny Machado is living up to his highbrow pedigree (.877 OPS) at age 20. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo at short and first respectively, give Cubs fans hope for, say, 2015 and beyond. Rizzo, 23 sports an .813 OPS with 25 homers and 32 doubles in his 140 games with the Cubs. Castro, also 23 and in his fourth full season, boasts two All-Star berths and 10 wins of value. And big Cardinal hurler Shelby Miller has just 16 MLB starts, but he's already overpowering the best hitters in the world (7-3, 1.89, more Ks than innings.)
Miller shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, inasmuch as he's a Cardinal. The Redbirds have a long history of churning out fine moundsmen like ice cream. Indeed, recent St. Louis draftees now in the rotation, like Miller, Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal, are a combined 16-4, 2.54 with nearly a strikeout-per-frame.
For the last few weeks we've been treated to another potential phenom as Rangers' middle infielder Jurickson Profar, just two years removed from high school, is hitting .333 in his first 10 games. Teaming in the Texas infield with Elvis Andrus, a worldly 24-year-old five-year veteran, this pair is demonstrating that youth will be served.
It's not the number of prodigies that feels unusual; it's their raw youth. Among the most promising of those named, Machado, Trout, Harper and Profar can't legally drain a postgame brew. Look for several of these names to get called again in a couple of decades -- five years after they retire.
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