Sabermetricians expend a lot of electrons discussing the stabilization of batting and pitching statistics. It's helpful to know how long players can be "hot" or "cold" before the record reflects their actual ability.
In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?
Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)
Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.
Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated?
I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.
This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.
"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.
It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.
Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.
If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?
Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.
1 comment:
...so if theyre built for this year maybe they should stick with the team they've got and see if they can make a run. Giving up means they won't be competitive for another half decade.
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