Who Has Quality Wins and Losses

Previous discussion in this space outlined the vast advantages of tying wins and losses to a matrix of what constitutes quality starts. Doing so demonstrates how Jason Hammel of the Orioles, who sports a 7-4 record, in fact has provided his team with only five good chances to win in 14 tries. Conversely, The White Sox' Chris Sale, whose 5-5 record suggests middling performance, should be 10-2 based on the quality of his starts.

Here are some other insights that Quality Wins provides on starting pitcher records:

The Phillies' Cole Hamels is 2-10. He should be 10-5. His won-loss record not only tells us nothing about his performance, it completely misleads us.
The Cardinals' Lance Lynn is 9-1. He should be 9-5. He's avoided four losses because his teammates have bailed him out.

Here are some other Quality Win revelations with the pitcher's name, his Quality Win record in bold and his actual W-L tally in parentheses.

Bud Norris 10-3 (5-6)
Patrick Corbin 10-3 (9-0)
The Astros' righty and D'backs lefty have performed similarly, but W-L aficionados would perceive them quite differently.

Joe Saunders, 8-6 (5-6) 
Yovani Gallardo 6-9 (6-6)
An above average Mariner has a losing record while a bad Brewer appears to be middling.

Stephen Strasburg, 8-5 (3-6)
Gio Gonzalez 9-5 (3-3)
Evidently the Nats' problem is more offensive than defensive.

Clayton Kershaw, 12-3 (5-4)
Jon Lester, 6-9 (6-4) 
The Dodgers' ace and the Red Sox' ace have similar records, but only because one has been victimized and the other propped up, by his mates.

Brandon Morrow 3-7 (2-3)
Phil Hughes 7-6 (3-5)
Again, similar records; divergent paths. 

Mat Latos 9-5 (6-0)
Shaun Marcum 3-7 (0-8)
The undefeated Red should have lost five times. The winless Met has pitched well enough for victory a few times.

Lucas Harrell 10-5 (5-7)
Ricky Nolasco, 8-6 (3-7) 
A.J. Burnett 9-5 (4-6) 
Marco Estrada 4-8 (4-4)
Estrada has the best record of the group despite the worst results.

This is based on a 2000-2013 standard, which includes a goodly chunk of the longball era. You might be thinking that had we limited the benchmark to 2011-2013, more of these wins would be losses, or put another way, a starter would have to pitch more innings per run allowed in order to notch the W.

Currently, this is the matrix:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.

Subtract three percent from the scoring and the matrix becomes this:
Go five innings. Give up one run or none.
Go at least five-and-two-thirds innings and give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch seven innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight-and-two-thirds innings and give up four runs or fewer.

As it turns out, it doesn't make much difference. After recalculating the Quality Win records of eight guys listed above, a grand total of one win transformed into a loss. 

The bottom line is, if you're addicted to pitching wins, here's a formula that hews closer to the quality of the start. And as these examples attest, it can make a big difference in how you perceive a pitcher.