The Post I'd Like To Write, But Don't Have The Data To Support

If only I were a Sabremetrician.

If only I had access to big piles of data about older players and their return from injury.

Then I could write this blog post.

The one about how Derek Jeter's career could be effectively over even if he returns from his ankle injury and performs well in August and September, and even beyond. 

(Which reminds me: Jeter tweeted yesterday that he's almost ready to begin his rehab assignment in the Minors. I wonder if Brian Cashman is going to respond by telling Alex Rodriguez to shut the !@#$%^&*! up.)

Somewhere out there is a warehouse of data about how 39-year-olds perform after major injuries that sideline them for eight months, which is how long the Yankee shortstop's been laid up. 

My guess is that it does not bode well, not only because there aren't a whole lot of 39-year-olds performing at a high level to begin with, and not only because those who do generally play more sedentary positions like 1B or DH. Mainly it's because when it comes to 39-year-olds, major injuries never completely heal.

Compounding that, the ankle is the worst joint for a shortstop to injure. Every move on defense is a fast-twitch explosion at the ankle. If we thought "Pastadiving" was Jeter's first name before the injury, it might get shortened to "Past" following his return from injury. In addition, pain will likely accompany sprints around the bases. 

So if playing shortstop and running the bases -- two staples of Jeter's career -- are problematic, what joy will there be for him on the field?

Keep in mind, that's the best case scenario. The worst case is that he can't return at all, or he returns and re-injures the ankle, or gets hurt some other way, or just isn't the Derek Jeter of old --even the one of age 38. 

It's easy to see Jeter gutting it out for a couple of months in 2013 and then concluding he can't make it through a whole season of the pain at age 40. It's not far-fetched to imagine every twinge adding to the argument that he's gotten everything he can out of his career. There's really no reason for him to drag a shell of his talent -- if that's what he becomes -- through another 162-game season to tarnish his legacy and leave a sad, withered image on our minds' retinas, the one many of us have of Willie Mays as a Met.

The Yankee captain has an $8 million player option for next year, so he wouldn't be leaving large sums of money (in baseball superstar terms) on the table if he retired. It's easy to see the Steinbrenners keeping him on the payroll for that sum in another capacity.

So here's the conclusion I believe I'd reach if I had the data: don't bank on Derek Jeter returning to star form again, and don't be surprised if last year's playoffs were effectively the end of his career.