After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.
And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.
And they still don't have any starting pitching.
The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well.
They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.
Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00.
Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.
The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can.
Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.
2 comments:
Mid to late August is the equivalent to heartbreak hill in the Boston marathon. Will Baltimore break? Seems to me ( do statistics indicate.?) that teams that live by offence alone are more prone to collapse from the pressure.
Is it harder to hit well when you have to or to pitch well when it is needed?
My gut says stick with pitching. Is there a trade in the cards before the trade deadline for the orioles?
Good points Jogo. Of course, we've seen all this before from the Orioles. Last year might turn out to be the anomaly.
However, as far as betting on a defense-dependent team , the research suggests that it doesn't make any difference whether a team leans one way or the other. Hitting slumps, pitching slumps, injuries happen.
O's just swapped a pair of fungible relievers for Scott Feldman. We'll see if another 3/4 starter makes a difference.
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