About a fifth of the way through the season we see some trends emerging at the macro level. The Cubs, Mets, Nationals, White Sox, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners have broken strong from the starter's gun. The Braves, Astros, Padres, Twins, A's, Angels, Brewers and Reds have all scuffled badly.
Thirty games is longer than a phase but too short to be definitive. We know that over that period, the cream and the sludge tend to find their way near the top and bottom respectively, but not always. An injury or a raft of weak individual performances can cripple a good team over 30 games while a soft schedule or a few hot bats can catapult an otherwise suspect team.
There are some surprises on those two lists. Which of the hot listers don't we have confidence in?
Recent history has told us never to count out Buck Showalter's Orioles. They have defied expectations and the odds several times in the 2010s. In a year of long balls, they are among the long balliest.
As I've mentioned before, the White Sox had more potential than people were giving them credit for coming into the season. They're fifth in the league in runs scored and first in runs allowed; the latter feels reasonable given the lineup but it's unlikely that Chris Sale -- much less Jose Quintana and Mat Latos -- will go all season without losing, especially as Latos needs to become acquainted with the strikeout.
The Nats, Mets, Cubs and Red Sox have so far exhibited truth in advertising. That leaves the Mariners, at 21-13 the leader in the AL West despite an upside-down charge out of the gate. Seattle, long a contingent of whiffle ball bats, is scoring the fourth most runs in the junior circuit. Their pitching has been even better, led by a lights-out bullpen and not by King Felix's paltry 1.5 K/BB ratio.
Relief pitching is notoriously subject to the winds, and after Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, there aren't a whole lot of everyday players you'd bet your Starbucks money on (unless you count Adam Lind and his three walks in 93 PA.) The AL West is up for grabs, especially with Houston's putrid start, but the Mariners are the best bet to collapse back into the pack.
Showing posts with label Baltimore Orioles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baltimore Orioles. Show all posts
13 May 2016
17 February 2015
Why Seamheads Keep Under-Rating the O's
In the last three seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have punished their AL East brethren, tallying 93, 85 and 96 wins, and snagging two division titles.
And so this year, once again, the stat-based projection systems are showing the franchise less respect than Aretha Franklin. PECOTA pegs the Birds at 78 wins and a basement finish for the fourth straight season. Not a finished basement, mind you.
The Birds have unintentionally uncovered one way in which projections systems and the seamheads who worship them are for the birds themselves. (But not for the Birds.) Because of pretzel logic baked into the projection system by stat guys who call everything they can't quantify "luck," PECOTA holds a deep and abiding hatred for everything Baltimore, including crabs, Terrapins, Edgar Alan Poe and being called "hun."
In this article for Baseball Prospectus, Zachary Levine explains what the Orioles did to PECOTA (pulled its hair and made it cry in fifth grade) to consistently earn a subterranean ranking. How does PECOTA suggest the Orioles will shed 18 wins from last season? Here's the critical segment of the explanation:
The first five wins are easy. That’s the luck that the Orioles had last year that you would expect to be close to independent year-to-year. A 96-66 team, they had a Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed of 94-68 and a third-order record based on the underlying stats that go into run scoring and prevention of 91-71.
Translation: the O's presented a unique profile in 2014, in which the close matches tilted their way and the blowouts blew in the other direction. Generally, that's more likely luck than skill. Bill James discovered in a previous century that teams are much more like their run differential than they are like their won-loss records; the run differential is a better predictor of future record than past record.
The discrepancy between the won-loss record suggested by run differential (technically, the difference between the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed, hence the notion of a Pythagorian record) and the actual won-loss record is commonly referred to by sabergeeks as "luck."
But sometimes what appears to be luck is skill lurking in the corner of the dugout. The Os under Showalter have vastly out-performed this measure, which suggests that they know something Bill James doesn't . (Is that possible?) In 2012, Baltimore posted an astonishing 29-9 record in one-run games and 16-2 record in extra-inning affairs, and they repeated the feat, albeit less dramatically, in 2014.
This could be a run of luck akin to flipping heads 17 of 19 times. Or it could be that the team knows something that gives them an edge in close contests. A sharp manager, a good bench and a deep but unheralded pitching staff, all of which Baltimore possesses, could convey that needed margin in close games without tilting the balance in less evenly contested skirmishes.
This is a bit like the "pitching to the score" argument people make for Jack Morris and his pedestrian 3.94 lifetime ERA, so we have to be careful. But PECOTA and its brethren have been wrong for three straight years. Maybe it's time to acknowledge that just because we don't know what it is doesn't necessarily make it luck.
Bet the over.
And so this year, once again, the stat-based projection systems are showing the franchise less respect than Aretha Franklin. PECOTA pegs the Birds at 78 wins and a basement finish for the fourth straight season. Not a finished basement, mind you.
The Birds have unintentionally uncovered one way in which projections systems and the seamheads who worship them are for the birds themselves. (But not for the Birds.) Because of pretzel logic baked into the projection system by stat guys who call everything they can't quantify "luck," PECOTA holds a deep and abiding hatred for everything Baltimore, including crabs, Terrapins, Edgar Alan Poe and being called "hun."
In this article for Baseball Prospectus, Zachary Levine explains what the Orioles did to PECOTA (pulled its hair and made it cry in fifth grade) to consistently earn a subterranean ranking. How does PECOTA suggest the Orioles will shed 18 wins from last season? Here's the critical segment of the explanation:
The first five wins are easy. That’s the luck that the Orioles had last year that you would expect to be close to independent year-to-year. A 96-66 team, they had a Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed of 94-68 and a third-order record based on the underlying stats that go into run scoring and prevention of 91-71.
Translation: the O's presented a unique profile in 2014, in which the close matches tilted their way and the blowouts blew in the other direction. Generally, that's more likely luck than skill. Bill James discovered in a previous century that teams are much more like their run differential than they are like their won-loss records; the run differential is a better predictor of future record than past record.
The discrepancy between the won-loss record suggested by run differential (technically, the difference between the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed, hence the notion of a Pythagorian record) and the actual won-loss record is commonly referred to by sabergeeks as "luck."
But sometimes what appears to be luck is skill lurking in the corner of the dugout. The Os under Showalter have vastly out-performed this measure, which suggests that they know something Bill James doesn't . (Is that possible?) In 2012, Baltimore posted an astonishing 29-9 record in one-run games and 16-2 record in extra-inning affairs, and they repeated the feat, albeit less dramatically, in 2014.
This could be a run of luck akin to flipping heads 17 of 19 times. Or it could be that the team knows something that gives them an edge in close contests. A sharp manager, a good bench and a deep but unheralded pitching staff, all of which Baltimore possesses, could convey that needed margin in close games without tilting the balance in less evenly contested skirmishes.
This is a bit like the "pitching to the score" argument people make for Jack Morris and his pedestrian 3.94 lifetime ERA, so we have to be careful. But PECOTA and its brethren have been wrong for three straight years. Maybe it's time to acknowledge that just because we don't know what it is doesn't necessarily make it luck.
Bet the over.
09 August 2014
Why Your Team Stinks and Will Win Their Division
Congratulations! You just assumed the helm of a Major League Baseball team.
Here's the problem: I'm going to saddle you with the following:
You're middle of the pack in runs scored. Really, how many games can your charges win?
Well, if you're Buck Showalter, the answer is: enough to build the largest division lead in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles are acting like their counterparts in the East Bay -- winning with a patchwork of defense, good health and smart managing. And, of course, a tablespoon of good luck.
Despite the lack of names, the rotation has performed credibly and the bullpen anchors have delivered -- a 1.30 combined ERA for closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. The team leads the league in fielding percentage and the advanced metrics peg their overall defense as above average.
Showalter doesn't have a plethora of options at his disposal, but infielder Steve Pearce has bopped 11 homers in 230 at-bats and outfielder Delmon Young is hitting .316. Back-up catcher Caleb Joseph, spelling Matt Wieters while he misses the rest of the season following elbow surgery, has homered in five consecutive games.
Wieters not withstanding, the Baltimorons have enjoyed the blessings of extraordinary health. Six pitchers have made all but one of the Orioles' starts this year and the three best hitters -- Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz -- have perfect attendance on the season.
The O's are also doing the small things. They're 36-22 in one- and two-run games. They've won 12 of 16 extra-inning games. They don't waste many at-bats on sacrifice bunts and they've lost just 14 runners attempting to steal. The defense has turned 114 double plays, two dozen more than they've hit into. It helps explain why since June, they're 39-22 and haven't lost two straight. And it doesn't hurt that they're dominating their division rivals in head-to-head matchups.
The million-dollar question is whether the Birds can maintain the pace. While their rivals piled up more bodies at the trade deadline, Dan Duquette added just lefty fireballer Andrew Miller to bolster the pen. And a few late-season injuries can erase all the good fortune.
But the O's have the easiest remaining schedule in the league and they've been improving as the season has progressed. The last time they held a lead this large, this late, was 1997, when they won 98 games and the AL East.
Here's the problem: I'm going to saddle you with the following:
- A rotation of third starters -- Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman.
- A second baseman who's clearly outmatched by Major League pitching.
- A silky-fielding left fielder who bats .213 without power.
- A first baseman with major pop but a .198 batting average and a million strikeouts.
- An All-Star backstop whose season lasts 100 at-bats.
- A roster that doesn't get on base, including an outfielder with more home runs than walks.
- The fewest steals in the league.
You're middle of the pack in runs scored. Really, how many games can your charges win?
Well, if you're Buck Showalter, the answer is: enough to build the largest division lead in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles are acting like their counterparts in the East Bay -- winning with a patchwork of defense, good health and smart managing. And, of course, a tablespoon of good luck.
Despite the lack of names, the rotation has performed credibly and the bullpen anchors have delivered -- a 1.30 combined ERA for closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. The team leads the league in fielding percentage and the advanced metrics peg their overall defense as above average.
Showalter doesn't have a plethora of options at his disposal, but infielder Steve Pearce has bopped 11 homers in 230 at-bats and outfielder Delmon Young is hitting .316. Back-up catcher Caleb Joseph, spelling Matt Wieters while he misses the rest of the season following elbow surgery, has homered in five consecutive games.
Wieters not withstanding, the Baltimorons have enjoyed the blessings of extraordinary health. Six pitchers have made all but one of the Orioles' starts this year and the three best hitters -- Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz -- have perfect attendance on the season.
The O's are also doing the small things. They're 36-22 in one- and two-run games. They've won 12 of 16 extra-inning games. They don't waste many at-bats on sacrifice bunts and they've lost just 14 runners attempting to steal. The defense has turned 114 double plays, two dozen more than they've hit into. It helps explain why since June, they're 39-22 and haven't lost two straight. And it doesn't hurt that they're dominating their division rivals in head-to-head matchups.
The million-dollar question is whether the Birds can maintain the pace. While their rivals piled up more bodies at the trade deadline, Dan Duquette added just lefty fireballer Andrew Miller to bolster the pen. And a few late-season injuries can erase all the good fortune.
But the O's have the easiest remaining schedule in the league and they've been improving as the season has progressed. The last time they held a lead this large, this late, was 1997, when they won 98 games and the AL East.
28 December 2013
More Questions Without Answers
Round Two of our foray into the off-season navel-gazing we're compelled to do unless we want to watch the Beef O'Brady Bowl showdown featuring East Cackalacky and Northern Midwest Rustbelt State Tech. Or read a book:
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
Question: What about Bronson Arroyo?
Which part of consistent, above-average workhorse don't baseball GMs like? Dude's hurled nine consecutive years of 32+ starts (he only made 29 starts and six relief appearances in his first full season) and piled up 27 wins against replacement for his employers. Sure he's 37, but he's twirled more than 404 innings the last two seasons with a nearly 4-1 strikeout-walk ratio and an above-average ERA in Cincinnati's Great American Homer Park.
What's more, the guy's fastball is a change-up, so it's not like his heater will cool with age and cost him effectiveness. Arroyo introduced batters to Uncle Charlie more than anyone else last year, and they responded by with a Mario Mendoza imitation. Arroyo will decline gradually; indeed, he's already begun, and it's been so gradual it's not even discernible yet. If Dan Haren can get a contract after disappointing more people in D.C. than Congress, how does Arroyo not warrant a nibble?
Other third starters are latching on at $8-$10 million per, so if the 6'4" northpaw is reconciled to two years of that he should find a willing partner before Spring Training.
Question: What are the Orioles doing?
They swapped their closer for a garden-variety second baseman, signed Oakland's closer (are there scarier words than that?) for $15 million over two years and then nixed the deal without explanation. They sent their redundant third baseman (perhaps you've heard of Manny Machado) packing for a hit-challenged outfielder and left themselves the fifth worst AL pitching staff stripped of 40% of their starters.
The Backyard Birds need to acquire some quality arms or they're going to drop from 2012 fluke to 2014 puke. The good news is that Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza all remain unclaimed, and the bidding has begun on Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka, who authored a 24-0 record with a 1.27 ERA and saved the only Nippon Baseball championship for Rakuten. Get out your checkbook, Peter Angelos.
Question: Is standing pat in Toronto's a strategy or a white flag?
You may remember that this time last year the Blue Jays were bulking up with R.A. Dickey and the cast-offs from Miami, a strategy that worked like a health insurance website. This year, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos upgraded the sinkhole at catcher and then seemingly took the winter off. As things stand now, the lineup north of the border will look eerily familiar. Will it perform just as badly?
There's a lot of reason to be skeptical about this team. The big thumpers thumped as expected -- 130 homers from five key starters. But Melky Cabrera struggled with health issues, maybe the lack of steroids pulsing through his veins chief among them. The keystone duo of Emilio Bonafacio and Macier Izturis hit literally half as well as a Major Leaguer. And the bench is thinner than Rob Ford's excuses.
The pitching is great, as long as you're not particular about having a #1 starter. Or a #2. Or much after Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who each took another step towards 40 in the off-season. The relief corps excelled, yet the team ERA rose to fourth worst in the league, and bullpens are notoriously fickle. Double-A, as the GM is known, needs to sneak back into the marketplace for an infielder, an outfielder and an arm, at the very least. Otherwise, the Jays could go down as an historically bad experiment.
02 July 2013
What Happened To Oriole Regression?
After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.
And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.
And they still don't have any starting pitching.
The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well.
They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.
Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00.
Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.
The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can.
Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.
And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.
And they still don't have any starting pitching.
The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well.
They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.
Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00.
Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.
The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can.
Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.
31 August 2012
The As and Os? How?
With the early hints of autumn, we've reached the time of year when sports fans, not content to wallow in their silent cluelessness, broadcast it to the world in the form of NFL predictions. Predicting teams' records is an effort in such futility that almost none of the NFL savants who breathe pigskin air 25-hours-a-day could have predicted last year's Super Bowl champ even at the end of the 16-game schedule.
This brings to mind the current state of affairs in Major League Baseball's standings, in which a serially-inept Baltimore franchise and the skeletal remains of an Oakland squad lead the AL Wild Card race, five games ahead of the Angels, who added the MVP, their main rival's best pitcher and Albert Pujols prior to the start of play, and the 2010 Cy Young after the All-Star break. This situation was inconceivable in April.
In fact, it's inconceivable now. The Orioles are 14 games over .500 despite having been outscored by 44 runs. The ace of their staff is a gentleman named Jason Hammel, a 6'6" righty with a 42-51, 4.80 record in seven years of work. Their #2 starter is some other guy and some pitcher of no note is #3. Don't even ask about #s 4 and 5.
Led by two-thirds of a good outfield (Adam Jones and Nick Markakis), the O's struggle to get aboard (third worst OBP in the AL) in front of all the big bopping (161 HRs, fourth best), leaving them ninth of 14 AL teams in scoring. Typical is shortstop JJ Hardy, whose 17 homers are more than offset by a .277 OBP. That the Orioles are a wind machine is much of the problem; seven of the nine regulars have fanned more than 80 times already.
About the only real asset in Baltimore, besides the cathedral in which they play, is the bullpen. Their five primary relievers all sport ERAs below 3.00, notably closer Jim Johnson, who's clamped down 41 of 43 saves. Still, it doesn't add up. A shutdown pen that backs a mediocre rotation and an out-challenged batting order does not ordinarily a playoff team make.
Ditto for the A's, who get a D in hitting, a B in starting pitching and an A in bullpen. It's a mystery where in that vast dump they call The Coliseum is kept the smoke and mirrors. At the plate, they're worst in the league in strikeouts, second worst in OBP and third worst in runs scored, yet they lead the Wild Card race at 16 games over .500. Their best hitter (outfielder Josh Reddick) is a Red Sox castoff with a .327 OBP. Their best starter, Brandon McCarthy, is a seven-year veteran with a lifetime achievement of 36-38, 4.01. Similar to Baltimore, they close the door with five relievers whose ERAs all hover below 2.80, but it doesn't add up.
Stack those two rosters against the Angels, who are bursting with stars, and it's a head-scratcher. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols, Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales provide more firepower than the As and Os combined. L.A. stands taller on the hill too, with an enviable rotation of CJ Wilson, Cy Young-candidate Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and now Zack Greinke. The relief corps is a drag, but not enough to prevent the team from barely sticking its head above .500.
Maybe you had the Oakland-Baltimore parlay. You're one in a million. Did you also have Washington and Cincinnati at one-two in the senior circuit? Me either. But I'm smart enough -- even with a blog -- to keep my pre-season guesses to myself.
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