Following their World Series appearance in 2005 (a sweep at the hands of the White Sox) management of the Houston Astros decided that denial would be an appropriate strategy for the future.
So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.
The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.
Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.
Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.
Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.
Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?
The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice. The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.
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