Why Your Team Stinks and Will Win Their Division

Congratulations! You just assumed the helm of a Major League Baseball team. 

Here's the problem: I'm going to saddle you with the following:

• A rotation of third starters -- Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman.
• A second baseman who's clearly outmatched by Major League pitching.
• A silky-fielding left fielder who bats .213 without power.
• A first baseman with major pop but a .198 batting average and a million strikeouts.
• An All-Star backstop whose season lasts 100 at-bats.
• A roster that doesn't get on base, including an outfielder with more home runs than walks. 
• The fewest steals in the league.

You're middle of the pack in runs scored. Really, how many games can your charges win? 

Well, if you're Buck Showalter, the answer is: enough to build the largest division lead in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles are acting like their counterparts in the East Bay -- winning with a patchwork of defense, good health and smart managing. And, of course, a tablespoon of good luck.

Despite the lack of names, the rotation has performed credibly and the bullpen anchors have delivered -- a 1.30 combined ERA for closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. The team leads the league in fielding percentage and the advanced metrics peg their overall defense as above average.

Showalter doesn't have a plethora of options at his disposal, but infielder Steve Pearce has bopped 11 homers in 230 at-bats and outfielder Delmon Young is hitting .316. Back-up catcher Caleb Joseph, spelling Matt Wieters while he misses the rest of the season following elbow surgery, has homered in five consecutive games.

Wieters not withstanding, the Baltimorons have enjoyed the blessings of extraordinary health. Six pitchers have made all but one of the Orioles' starts this year and the three best hitters -- Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz -- have perfect attendance on the season.

The O's are also doing the small things. They're 36-22 in one- and two-run games. They've won 12 of 16 extra-inning games. They don't waste many at-bats on sacrifice bunts and they've lost just 14 runners attempting to steal. The defense has turned 114 double plays, two dozen more than they've hit into. It helps explain why since June, they're 39-22 and haven't lost two straight.  And it doesn't hurt that they're dominating their division rivals in head-to-head matchups.

The million-dollar question is whether the Birds can maintain the pace. While their rivals piled up more bodies at the trade deadline, Dan Duquette added just lefty fireballer Andrew Miller to bolster the pen. And a few late-season injuries can erase all the good fortune. 

But the O's have the easiest remaining schedule in the league and they've been improving as the season has progressed. The last time they held a lead this large, this late, was 1997, when they won 98 games and the AL East.

What Happened To Oriole Regression?

After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.

And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.

And they still don't have any starting pitching.

The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well. 

They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.

Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00. 

Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.

The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can. 

Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.