The Guns of August: Declaring the Wrong WAR

It was inevitable.

Seamheads like me lobby for years to get better measurements accepted into the game of baseball. Ditch the team metrics that accrue to individuals like pitcher wins, runs and RBI in favor of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), OPS (On-base average plus slugging percentage) and VORP (batting value over replacement player).

Then, after repeatedly confronted with the vast utility advantage of the new stats, the guardians of baseball finally breakdown and adopt them. Haltingly. Gingerly. Slowly. But they do it.

So now even retrograde outlets like Fox Sports and my little hometown paper reference WAR (wins against replacement) on occasion. Yea!

...And they butcher it. Well, "butcher" overstates the error and understates the problem. Butchery would be easy to correct. They miss the nuance in WAR and as a result, misuse it, mis-perceive it and misunderstand it.

WAR (and its cousin, WARP) does yeoman's work. It purports to wrap a player's entire value -- hitting, pitching, fielding, base running -- into one stat, adjusted for ballpark and competition and defensive position. It's zero-calorie, no-fat, chocolate peanut butter coffee ice cream that's high in Vitamin D and anti-oxidants.

But about every fourth gallon, there's a rat hair in the ice cream. It's a problem. It should make us all skeptical of WAR. More on that momentito.

Now, when Fox Sports or my hometown paper allude to WAR, they do so with tongue in cheek. They don't understand the stat, can't fathom the math, and consequently want to distance themselves from its conclusions. They compare the WAR of two players, but when the results don't reinforce what home runs, RBIs and pitcher wins suggest, they giggle, turn crimson and change the subject.

Here's an example: Orioles shortstop JJ Hardy (.261/.298/.452 with 15 HR) is worth 2.4 WAR while Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown (.275/.323/.552 with 21 HR) is worth just 2.2 WAR. Because my local sports columnist isn't comfortable with the narrative, he mentions the number but examines other elements of their performance before shrugging his shoulders and calling it a toss-up.

Hardy is more valuable than Brown despite a 120-point OPS deficit because a) he's being compared offensively to shortstops, as opposed to corner outfielders, b) he's a good fielder at a higher premium position, c) he plays in a home stadium less conducive to hitting safely and d) playing in the AL East means he faces tougher competition.

Now back to the rat hair in the ice cream. It's the defensive metrics that comprise part of WAR. After a decade-and-a-half of trying, the best minds in baseball research have improved immensely on fielding percentage and eyeballs. The new defensive metrics can help us determine fielding acumen, but still only in the broadest terms. They work well when several different measurement systems are combined and their time horizon is long. 

One player, one season, one defensive measurement system -- that's asking for trouble. You can find dozens of ballplayers who are rated plus-plus fielders in a given year by FRAA (Baseball Prospectus's system) and below average by UZR (Fangraphs' zone rating system) or vice versa. This year, BP has Hardy at replacement level in the field while Baseball-Reference credits him with 1.2 defensive wins.

Consequently, the WAR of players at the margins -- whose defensive numbers are large -- can vary widely depending on whose defensive measures we're using. It can make the difference of two wins in a season, the gap between a 2.5 win regular and a 4.5 win All-Star.

It's even more problematic for pitchers, whose WAR is calculated by very complicated calculations that attempt to quantify the defense behind them and then strip it from their results. (This is what's called Fielding Independent Pitching.) The high margin of error in those equations can polish or stain a whole pitching staff.

We're going to hear a lot more talk of WAR as the season wears on. We should be wary of it, but not afraid of it. We should understand why its use requires a shaker-full of salt. And we should understand that for most players, particularly at high-offense positions, it's a very tasty new treat.

Who Doesn't Belong On Your All-Star Ballot

Many Americans vote for their President, US Senator and House member without much thought. They vote for the guy they like, or listen to one speech and make up their minds or enter the voting booth not sure and pull one lever or another based on whim.

But the MLB All-Star ballot, that's a sacred rite! So, okay, there's not much point in treating the vote as if lives depend on it.

On the other hand, it's reasonable to avoid blatant injustice if you can. So let's take a look at the All-Star ballot. Here's mine:

AL
1B - Chris Davis, BAL -- maybe the first half MVP
2B - Robinson Cano, NY -- the best player having the best season
SS - Jed Lowrie, OAK -- in a close vote
3B - Miguel Cabrera, DET -- any questions?
DH - David Ortiz, BOS -- there's really no one else
C - Joe Mauer, MIN -- no contest
OF - Mike Trout, ANA -- best in the majors
OF - Adam Jones, BAL -- because he slugs and plays center
OF - Alex Gordon, KC -- he does it all

NL
1B - Joey Votto, CIN -- the best player having the best season
2B - Matt Carpenter, StL -- No track record, but he's by far the best this season
SS - Troy Tulowitzki, COL -- he's hurt, but give him the honor and then replace him with Segura
3B - David Wright, NY -- head and shoulders above the crowd
C - Yadier Molina, StL -- his defense gets the nod over Posey
OF - Shin-soo Choo, CIN -- he just gets on and on and on
OF - Andrew McCutchen, PIT -- stud's getting it done again
OF - Domonic Brown, PHI -- gave him the nod over Gerardo Parra

Others whom you might have reasonably selected:
Paul Goldschmidt, AZ at NL 1B -- He's unlikely to maintain his .300+ average while Votto will
Jason Kipnis, CLE at AL 2B -- A breakout with the bat, but Cano does that every year
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at AL 2B -- He's got the track record but lacks Cano's power and durability
Marco Scutaro, SF at NL 2B -- Another nice season, but w/o power pales compared to Carpenter
Jhonny Peralta, DET at AL SS -- Hitting better than Lowrie and both are defensively suspect
Jean Segura, MIL at NL SS -- Hard to vote for a player based on 80 games when there's a real option
Buster Posey, SF at NL C -- You know he'll keep hitting like this; Molina probably won't
Brett Gardner, NYY at AL OF -- Splitting hairs left him off
Gerardo Parra, AZ, at NL OF -- See above note
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at NL OF -- Denver casts a shadow on his big numbers 
Michael Cuddyer, COL at NL OF -- The hitting streak will end for this .805 OPS lifetime hitter
Ryan Braun, MIL at NL OF -- missing the power and maybe the credibility
Torii Hunter, ANA; Coco Crisp, OAK; Michael Bourn, CLE at AL OF -- good players getting it done in '13.

Here are some players who will get votes but whom you can't reasonably vote for: 

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira, Curtis Granderson, Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp or anyone else who's sat this spring more than he's stood.

Yasiel Puig, because of the small sample size. The Puig phenomenon belongs at the game but he shouldn't replace someone who has earned the start all year.

Evan Longoria or Manny Machado. They're raking and deserve to be in Flushing, but voting for anyone besides Miguel Cabrera should freeze your account and void your ballot.

Edwin Encarnacion, James Loney or anyone at AL first base besides Chris Davis. If hitting .330/.404/.704 with 28 homers doesn't earn your vote, no one does.

Melky Cabrera because you thought M. Cabrera on the ballot meant Miguel and you don't know that Miguel isn't an outfielder.

Players batting .249/.298/.367 who are on your favorite team.

Albert Pujols. A vote for him indicates you are not paying sufficient attention to merit even one vote, much less the 75 cast from my computer. Long live democracy!

Strange But True Baseball Facts

Mike Trout's 2013 is already the 42nd best age-21 season of all time by Wins Against Replacement. After the greatest age-20 season ever, he's on pace for the greatest age-21 season ever. That's despite stealing fewer bases, shining less in the field and losing 40 points on his BABIP. He's been Troutstanding. But his team is hampered by an Albertross and a Hamildone.

Heath Bell: Batters are hitting .324/.352/.574 against him. He's allowed more home runs and uncorked more wild pitchers this season than all of last year. Yet he's saved 13 in 16 attempts.

The Orioles' Adam Jones led the league with seven RBIs last week. He hit .240/.240/.400. Thhhpppp. Knocking in six runs were Carlos Pena (.150/.190/.450), Victor Martinez (.160/.290/.320) and Kendrys Morales (.200/.286/.320.) But I'm sure they're all clutch.

The Astros are now on pace for a record 1,535 strikeouts. Unless they get relegated to Triple-A in mid-season.

Rick Ankiel has whiffed 60 times in 136 plate appearances, the worst contact rate ever in that many trips to the plate. Which is why there probably won't be many more.

Adam Dunn, .184/.280/.447, is the fourth best hitter on the White Sox this year. You might want to take a pass on playoff ticket options.

Gerardo Parra has attempted 15 steals this year and failed nine times, a 40% success rate. The Major League average this season is 73%. Parra's career success rate is 62%.

Bryce Harper is rehabbing from a knee injury at Single-A Potomac. He is the youngest player on the team.

Dodger infielder Luis Cruz hits .125/.175/.169 in 148 plate appearances. He must be some fielder. (To be fair, he is; he plays second, third and short; and last year he hit .297/.322/.431 in 296 PA.)

The Cards' Edward Mujica is the only pitcher in baseball with more than one save but no decisions. He has 21 saves. #WhoCares

Forty-one-year-old Raul Ibanez leads the Mariners in home runs and RBI. He has a .282 OBP. Maybe they should bring back Junior.

Much of this came from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Undo! Undo!

Where's the erase button for that Blue Jays post? Dang.

Who Has Quality Wins and Losses

Previous discussion in this space outlined the vast advantages of tying wins and losses to a matrix of what constitutes quality starts. Doing so demonstrates how Jason Hammel of the Orioles, who sports a 7-4 record, in fact has provided his team with only five good chances to win in 14 tries. Conversely, The White Sox' Chris Sale, whose 5-5 record suggests middling performance, should be 10-2 based on the quality of his starts.

Here are some other insights that Quality Wins provides on starting pitcher records:

The Phillies' Cole Hamels is 2-10. He should be 10-5. His won-loss record not only tells us nothing about his performance, it completely misleads us.
The Cardinals' Lance Lynn is 9-1. He should be 9-5. He's avoided four losses because his teammates have bailed him out.

Here are some other Quality Win revelations with the pitcher's name, his Quality Win record in bold and his actual W-L tally in parentheses.

Bud Norris 10-3 (5-6)
Patrick Corbin 10-3 (9-0)
The Astros' righty and D'backs lefty have performed similarly, but W-L aficionados would perceive them quite differently.

Joe Saunders, 8-6 (5-6) 
Yovani Gallardo 6-9 (6-6)
An above average Mariner has a losing record while a bad Brewer appears to be middling.

Stephen Strasburg, 8-5 (3-6)
Gio Gonzalez 9-5 (3-3)
Evidently the Nats' problem is more offensive than defensive.

Clayton Kershaw, 12-3 (5-4)
Jon Lester, 6-9 (6-4) 
The Dodgers' ace and the Red Sox' ace have similar records, but only because one has been victimized and the other propped up, by his mates.

Brandon Morrow 3-7 (2-3)
Phil Hughes 7-6 (3-5)
Again, similar records; divergent paths. 

Mat Latos 9-5 (6-0)
Shaun Marcum 3-7 (0-8)
The undefeated Red should have lost five times. The winless Met has pitched well enough for victory a few times.

Lucas Harrell 10-5 (5-7)
Ricky Nolasco, 8-6 (3-7) 
A.J. Burnett 9-5 (4-6) 
Marco Estrada 4-8 (4-4)
Estrada has the best record of the group despite the worst results.

This is based on a 2000-2013 standard, which includes a goodly chunk of the longball era. You might be thinking that had we limited the benchmark to 2011-2013, more of these wins would be losses, or put another way, a starter would have to pitch more innings per run allowed in order to notch the W.

Currently, this is the matrix:
Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.

Subtract three percent from the scoring and the matrix becomes this:
Go five innings. Give up one run or none.
Go at least five-and-two-thirds innings and give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch seven innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight-and-two-thirds innings and give up four runs or fewer.

As it turns out, it doesn't make much difference. After recalculating the Quality Win records of eight guys listed above, a grand total of one win transformed into a loss. 

The bottom line is, if you're addicted to pitching wins, here's a formula that hews closer to the quality of the start. And as these examples attest, it can make a big difference in how you perceive a pitcher.

A New Way to Credit Pitcher Wns

Pitching wins are a team event credited to an individual who may have actually inhibited a team win. They too weakly correlate to good pitching to serve as a proxy when pitching acumen is being analyzed.

Efforts to find a single statistic that encapsulates good pitching have proved elusive and have been completely disengaged from the ultimate goal of a starting pitcher -- winning the game. They've also become a tangle of higher mathematics incomprehensible to the average fan.

Suppose we could invent one simple statistic that credited pitchers when they pitched sufficiently long and successfully to give their team a better-than-even chance of winning? That would trump mere pitching wins and be easy to use. You can see the whole discussion here in Matt Hunter's piece in Beyond the Box Score. We'll call his stat Quality Wins.

We know that since Year 2000, teams whose starting pitcher goes at least six-and-a-third innings and allows three runs or fewer win their games more than half the time. It's the reason that six-and-three is considered a quality start.

We can expand that matrix, starting with at least five innings of work, to create a continuum of Quality Win performances:

Go at least five innings. Give up two or fewer runs.
Pitch 6.3 innings and give up three runs or fewer.
Pitch eight innings and give up four runs or fewer.
Pitch 9.7 innings and give up five runs or fewer.

Keep in mind that this is runs, not earned runs. Defense is an issue on every ball hit, not just the errors.

Let's examine how that might have worked in the games of of June 14:

In the Brewers-Reds tilt, decided in the 10th inning, neither starter was credited with a win, though Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo earned one. He got through two outs in the eighth inning and surrendered three runs. His opponent, Kyle Lohse, pitched six full frames but allowed three runs to cross the plate, saddling Milwaukee with a better-than-even chance of losing (which they ultimately did.) He would be charged with a loss.

Chris Sale threw an eight-inning complete game for the White Sox in their 2-1 loss to Houston, allowing five hits and one walk while fanning 14. Under the Quality Win system, he gets a win for his effort. His counterpart, Eric Bedard, also earns a Quality Win for lasting six frames of one-run ball.

No Quality Win for either starter in the Phillies' come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Rockies. Kyle Kendrick and Juan Nicasio escaped without losses despite four-inning, seven-run and six-inning, five run debacles. Under the new system, each is charged with an L. 

In four other games the losing pitcher would get credited with a Quality Win and in the Indians-Nationals contest, where both starters were gone when the outcome was settled, each would be credited with a Quality Win.

In all, on this low-scoring Friday night:
Five starters charged with losses would instead get credit for pitching well and giving their team a good chance of winning.
Three hurlers who no-decisioned would instead get wins.
Three others with no decision would instead take responsibility for a loss. 
 

The seamheads would justifiably complain about various shortcomings of this statistic. 

• First, it fails to credit a pitcher any more for giving his team a 97.6% chance of winning (nine shutout innings) than for giving them a 50.5% chance (six and a third innings; three runs). 
• Second, it is divorced from actual wins, so a pitcher could be credited with 20 "wins" even if his team ultimately lost every game. (And both starters could be credited with wins or charged with losses in the same game.)  
• Third, it fails to take into account all the other elements that affect run scoring, like defense, ballpark, relief pitching, weather conditions and luck. 
• Last, it has no predictive value because it doesn't examine how the pitcher performed, just what resulted.

All true. This is not a leap towards the Holy Grail, just a refinement that gives us won-loss records that relate to actual performance. 

Since no pitching stat is foolproof, and since this is replacing pitching wins, which is nearly useless, the standard is not perfection but mere relevance and ease of use. Moreover, statheads can refine it to account for many of those issues. For example, a pitcher could be credited with only the percentage of a win he provides in every game he starts. And the stat could be adjusted for ballpark, defense, etc., just as others are. These enhancements would strengthen the "win" statistic but render it difficult to calculate. The result would be a fielding-independent stat represented not as ERA, as is currently the case, but as a won-loss record.

It's a small step, but it would expose the starters with great records despite lousy performances (I'm looking at you, Jason Hammel of Baltimore, 7-4, 5.24 with a 1.5 WHIP; would be 5-9 in Quality Wins) and exonerate high achievers with bad teammates (Chris Sale, 5-5, 2.43 and a 0.9 WHIP; would be 10-2 in Quality Wins).

Is It Time To Give Up On the Blue Jays?

Sabermetricians expend a lot of electrons discussing the stabilization of batting and pitching statistics. It's helpful to know how long players can be "hot" or "cold" before the record reflects their actual ability.

In other words, we know that when a player goes yard thrice on Opening Day it's unlikely he's going  yard thrice-a-night. But if he hits 15 home runs in the season's first half, is he a good bet to hit 15 in the second half?

Well, the answer happens to be yes. In fact, the research says home runs tend to stabilize after about 50 games. A hitter with two long balls in 50 games (assuming he's actually getting his at-bats in those games) is probably a seven homer weakling, more or less. A hitter with 15 jacks in 50 games is generally a 49-homer slugmeister, again more or less. (Not all players are the same. Your mileage may vary.)

Similar research has been done on a variety of statistics for hitters and pitchers. For batsmen, BABIP is the most volatile -- that is, it has the least to do with the innate ability of the hitter and takes years to normalize. Strikeout and walk rates are among the quickest to reach their "natural" state because batters tend to be inclined toward or against them in every plate appearance.

Fair enough, but what about teams? At what point is an unheralded team that's piling up the wins no longer streaking but actually performing at a higher level? At what point is a promising squad with a bad record no longer just slumping but actually over-rated? 

I'm not aware that there is any research on this. It makes sense that this is geometrically harder to determine. After all, a team comprises many players each of whom may be slumping or streaking beyond their natural ability. Injuries can prevent the best players from contributing their talents, while unexpected call-ups can reveal talent hitherto unrecognized. Teams change their player mix, so that the Mudville nine that dropped eight straight in May may bear little resemblance to the Casey-led behemoths winning 11 consecutive in August.

This question is of massive gravity to the management of franchises in Southern California and Southeastern Canada, and in the case of the squad in Ontario, 64 games may be that point. It may be time -- indeed, I'm asserting that it is time -- to determine that the Blue Jays are, in fact, their record, and management should expand its time horizon beyond this season.

"Calm down; it's a long season," you're muttering to yourself, or perhaps to your dog, or your autographed photo of Ron from Boston. It's all too true, and it's ointment for the pain being felt in Los Angeles and Los Angeles of Anaheim. The Angels and Dodgers are counting on returns to form or from injury by the likes of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and Albert Pujols; and Matt Kemp, Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez.

It's different in Toronto. The culprits for a last place start in baseball's toughest division are a 37-year-old, league-switching, scroogie-thrower with a questionable pedigree (R.A. Dickey); a speed merchant with recurring leg issues (Jose Reyes); a once-promising young hurler who missed most of 2011 and didn't fully rebound in 2012 (Josh Johnson); and a chemical-fueled batting titlist who's returned to his pre-drug career norms (Melky Cabrera). There isn't much untapped upside in that crowd.

Moreover, the key cogs imported from Miami crashed and burned together last year. Had they flipped the pancake this year we would have dismissed 2012 as a fluke. But having thrown another third-of-a-season on the funeral pyre they have demonstrated that this group is not playoff material. The record suggests that combining a failed trio, a couple of questionable assets and a 73-win squad isn't the formula for triumph.

If you accept the premise that it's over north of the border, what now? Most of their players have long and expensive contracts that will be hard to move. Several of them are getting on in years. The Blue Jays were built to win for a year or two while Boston and New York took a breather, (the second part of that equation also hasn't added up) so where does re-tooling get them?

Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him -- again. He might be able to flip Johnson and Mark Buehrle to contenders for some prospects, but after that it's pennies on the dollar. In a division pregnant with talent it sure sucks to be Toronto right now.

Dipping Their Toe In Knowledge: The Kansas City Royals Shake Up Their Lineup

In 2005, after 35 years as a Kansas City Royals fan, I renounced my affiliation and took up with the Washington Nationals. It had finally become evident that while I cared for the team, the owner, David Glass, did not. He operated the franchise like a WalMart, of which he had been CEO, which is to say his primary concern was earning a profit.

So Glass sucked the franchise dry and ran it on the cheap, relying on low-cost young talent to induce the flipping of turnstiles before earning their freedom.

In the ensuing eight years, KC is 506-685, a .425 winning percentage. This year, their 25-32 record is mostly attributable to their work in the batter's box: seven of their 11 most-used batters sport OPS+ of 80 or less. In other words, much of their starting lineup is at least 20% worse than average, including keystoner Chris Getz, who, at .207/.267/.289, is only the second-worst regular in the lineup. 

The entire team has struck 30 home runs, three fewer than the Orioles' first baseman and shortstop.

Their manager, lightly-regarded Ned Yost, has not wasted any time perusing the newest research on game strategy. So, for example, he's given sabermetric punching bag Jeff Francoeur 167 plate appearances despite a predictable .213/.246/.319 performance. (Actually, it's not the batting average or lack of power that are so lamentable, since both of those can increase over the course of the season. It's the 3% walk rate, which tends not to change much over time and which would keep his OBP below average for an outfielder even if he batted .300.)

When it comes to lineup construction, it's no surprise that Yost has clung to the old ways. Before there was research that could muddy the waters with annoying "facts," managers arranged lineups by folk wisdom, some of which proved wanting. They batted a punch and judy lightning bolt first, a speedy bat handler second, the best hitter third and the slugger fourth.

Hundreds of studies later, covering tens of thousands of games, there is a whole matrix of rules for optimal lineup construction, which can be summarized this way:
1. Bat your best hitters at the front of the order so they get to the plate more.
2. Table-setters in the first two positions need high on base percentages.
3. Alternate handedness as much as possible.
4. Beyond that, it doesn't matter much.

Managers still walking among the great lizards fail the test most often with respect to Rule 2 (and by extension Rule 1). For example, throwback strategist Dusty Baker bats shortstop Zach Cozart and his .270 OBP in the two spot, costing the Reds bits of runs every game.

That's exactly the error Ned Yost makes, albeit with fewer options than Baker has. Yost hits the Royals' best player, Alex Gordon (.315/.360/.468), at the top of the lineup and then follows him with speedy, punchless shortstop Alcides Escobar. The Gordon choice is defensible because he's likely to author the top OBP on the team. 

As for Escobar, remember him from his Milwaukee days? His Kansas City glory? I didn't think so. He might not be the worst hitter in the Royals' starting lineup, but if you made the case you wouldn't get an argument. That's the guy Yost sends to the plate the second most often. 

But! Earlier this week, Yost finally caved to the seamheads employed by the team (though one wonders why it bothers) and allowed them to re-arrange the order. Against a RHP, they dropped Escobar to the nine hole and moved first baseman Eric Hosmer, a .273/.332/.440 lifetime hitter against righties, up to second.

When asked whether he'd extend the experiment following a four-run effort the first night, Yost replied, "We'll see how it works tomorrow." (They scored seven the following night.) Yost is understandably wary, in as much as the new lineup represents a repudiation of everything he's believed for all his decades in cleats, but even a stubborn innumerate should be able to understand that a game or two is an insufficient sample size for testing a strategy that might boost scoring by a run every few games.

Obviously, optimal lineup construction is only optimal for the lineup in question. No batting order rife with dead weight, like KC's, can be transformed into the '27 Yankees simply by rearranging the uniforms. The improvement on offense that a more rational batting order conveys might bump the Royals to .500, but no further, and only if they improve elsewhere as well. But the decision to start listening to what the research says could transform the entire organization and produce occasional contenders.

The likes of Ned Yost probably won't be there to experience it. And I'll stick with my Nats all the same.

100-Game Suspensions? Yeah, Sure.

If you want to see sports journalism in all its raging, frothy, fulminating glory, take a peek at the coverage of Biogenesis frontman Tony Bosch's upcoming testimony before the sachems of Major League Baseball.

The Story: Twenty-two ballers, most of them Major Leaguers, may be named in documents that Bosch could provide to MLB that would suggest that they had purchased banned performance enhancing drugs. If the evidence is sufficiently strong, baseball could seek to suspend those named for as much as 100 games under the provision that they had committed two offenses -- procuring the banned substances and lying about it. The players' union would inevitably fight the unilateral punishments with all their considerable might, questioning the process, the evidence and the rationale in an appeal that would be arduous and uncertain.

The Broadcast Coverage: ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. ARod. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod. ARod choking. ARod lying. ARod cheating. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! ARod talking to pretty women. Ryan Braun. 100-game suspension! 

If Bosch's testimony is worth the receipts he'll allegedly hand over, there will be intrigue aplenty in this story, with all the twists and turns of the Amanda Cox murder case. So we'll all be following it. But we're a long, long way from any 100-game suspensions. 

For ARod. Or Ryan Braun.

Amazing But True Statistics At the One-Third Mark

Baltimore's Chris Davis has hit 20 homers and slugged .766. That's more home runs than the entire Seattle Mariner infield, including the catcher. It's a higher slugging percentage than any two Mariner infielders.

The Marlins are on pace to draw fewer than 1.5 million fans. In a new stadium.

The Cardinals have 10 pitchers with sub-3 ERAs. The Astros have none.

Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year. This year, he's hitting more line drives, walking more, striking out less, hitting for a higher average, getting on base more often and hitting for more power.

The Reds' Shin-Soo Choo is on pace to elicit 42 HBP. That's as many or more than 13 entire teams.  

Kyle Lohse's 4.37 ERA (feeding a 1-6 record) is still a run better than the Brewers' team average.

The A's have drawn 231 walks this year. Chicago has drawn 245 walks this year.  That's the Cubs and White Sox combined.

Pittsburgh's Jason Gilli has been credited with 22 saves in the first third of this season. He tallied five saves in his 10 Major League seasons prior.

Oriole sophomore Manny Machado is on pace to hit 72 doubles. The team in Miami has 73.

Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown hit .303 in May and slugged .688. He did not draw a single walk. 

Remember when David Ortiz was done? He's hitting .326/.400/.596. Again.

D-backs' catcher Miguel Montero is hitting .077, and slugging .077, on three-ball counts. 

Pirate hurler Jeff Locke is 5-1, 2.25 despite a weak 42/26 K/BB ratio.

Royals' savior James Shields has a 2.83 ERA in a league-leading 86 innings, a K/BB ratio of nearly four and a pair of complete games. And KC remains in the cellar.

Props to Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and other baseball bloggers for much of this information.

Youth Will Be Served

The best shortstop in the National League so far this year is leading the circuit in batting average, hits and triples, sports a .945 OPS and entered the season with all of 44 games jammed into his MLB toolbelt. He's Milwaukee's Jean Segura, a 23-year-old Dominican and odds are you don't even know how to pronounce his name. (It's Gene.)

Segura is part of a wave of accomplished preemies in the Majors this year. Indeed, he's ranked just 22nd on Athlon Sports' list of the best players under 25 even though he's raking at the prime defensive position and posting three wins of value in just 52 games. Keep in mind that four wins over a full season is star level.

Amid the waning dominance of one-time stars Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and others (though not Miguel Cabrera or Mariano Rivera), it's nice to have new perennials like Strasburg, Trout and Harper to take their place.

You've heard of those three and will continue to for a decade, at least. They are likely to be transcendent even among the sport's celestial bodies. But a quick glance through the names listed ahead of Segura suggest we're in a Renaissance in the game. 

Orioles hot cornerman Manny Machado is living up to his highbrow pedigree (.877 OPS) at age 20. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo at short and first respectively, give Cubs fans hope for, say, 2015 and beyond. Rizzo, 23 sports an .813 OPS with 25 homers and 32 doubles in his 140 games with the Cubs. Castro, also 23 and in his fourth full season, boasts two All-Star berths and 10 wins of value. And big Cardinal hurler Shelby Miller has just 16 MLB starts, but he's already overpowering the best hitters in the world (7-3, 1.89, more Ks than innings.)

Miller shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, inasmuch as he's a Cardinal. The Redbirds have a long history of churning out fine moundsmen like ice cream. Indeed, recent St. Louis draftees now in the rotation, like Miller, Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal, are a combined 16-4, 2.54 with nearly a strikeout-per-frame. 

For the last few weeks we've been treated to another potential phenom as Rangers' middle infielder Jurickson Profar, just two years removed from high school, is hitting .333 in his first 10 games. Teaming in the Texas infield with Elvis Andrus, a worldly 24-year-old five-year veteran, this pair is demonstrating that youth will be served.

It's not the number of prodigies that feels unusual; it's their raw youth. Among the most promising of those named, Machado, Trout, Harper and Profar can't legally drain a postgame brew. Look for several of these names to get called again in a couple of decades -- five years after they retire.

The Amazing Career of a Horrible Hitter

In 18 Major League seasons he cracked 20 home runs, a quarter of them in 1974, when he slugged .300. 

(He didn't bat .300; he had a slugging percentage of .300.)

His career totals of .228/.300/.280 are inflated by a .287/.351/.345 season in his prime. In other words, the only thing keeping him from being a pitcher was his inability to pitch.

He made the All-Star team in 1976, when he actually batted league average. He only came close to average two other times and retired with an OPS 32% below middling.

Sliding into outs in 31% of his 242 steal attempts further degraded his value. 

Yet. . . .

His slick fielding at shortstop earned the Orioles 40 wins over his career, roughly triple his offensive value. He is remembered as a key cog in a powerhouse franchise that won four pennants. His total career value -- 55 wins -- is greater than Davey Concepcion's, a contemporary named to eight All-Star berths.

It's hard to find as truly awful a hitter as Mark Belanger who nonetheless managed to start 2000 games and play an important role on a terrific team. Few others position players lacking the ability to hit for average or power, run fast or walk often have ever authored such a respectable resume.

We can thank Earl Weaver for recognizing the value of defense and writing Belanger's name on the lineup card 150 times a season. Weaver, always an innovator, knew that Jim Palmer, Dave McNally and other pitching stars who passed through the Baltimore rotation owed some of their success to the reliable dirt-scooper at short. We can also thank the likes of Boog Powell, Frank and Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair and Don Buford for making a power contribution from their shortstop unnecessary.

But mostly it's worth remembering fondly how a skinny intellectual from Pittsfield, MA could turn one skill - often overlooked -- into a career rated 508th best ever by Baseball-Reference.

Mark Belanger would have turned 69 next week, but he died of cancer 14 years ago from a lifelong addiction to sucking on poison sticks. He leaves behind many happy Baltimore baseball fans and the memory of an accomplished career, despite the absence of a single offensive skill.

The Critical Importance of Replacement Players

Seamheads long ago established the notion of a "replacement-level player" as the level of production a team could expect from a a freely available replacement -- generally considered a journeyman Quadruple-A player -- if their star suddenly succumbed to injury, illness or severe knuckleheadedness. (See: Ramirez, Manny) Its purpose is to divine the real value of a player, much the way we buy homeowner's insurance based on the cost of rebuilding the house rather on its market value.

Replacement level hitting for a right fielder is necessarily a more stringent standard than for a second baseman because right fielders who can hit .250 with 15 home runs come free with a purchase of 10 gallons of gas, whereas middle infielders who can hit their weight make Major League rosters as long as they bring their own gloves.
 
This explains (in part) why catcher Buster Posey, with a .919 OPS so far this year has been worth about 2.3 wins with the bat, while right fielder Jose Bautista, with a .975 OPS, has been worth just 1.7 wins. (The other component is ballpark: Posey plays half his games in a pitcher's park; Bautista plays half his in a stadium that favors neither pitcher nor hitter particularly.)

In truth, though, neither every team nor every situation has the same replacement level. A team that enters the off-season knowing its star third baseman will inaugurate the following campaign in rehab has time to recruit a fill-in whose talent level is closer to average. Similarly, a franchise with the advantages of a big market, payroll flexibility and a savvy front office can fish for bigger catches than can, say, the Padres.

None of which quite explains how three of the five most valuable Yankee position players are replacements. Presumably, DH Travis Hafner (.269/.387/.529), outfielder Vernon Wells (.270/.323/.477) and first baseman Lyle Overbay (.255/.292/.484) were available to the entire league. Indeed, Overbay, who compiled negative value for two teams last season before they cut him, is playing for the MLB equivalent of sofa cushion change -- $1.25 million. Yet the trio is filling in admirably for Alex Rodriguez/Kevin Youklis, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. 

It's important to note that although Hafner and Wells are viewed with jaundiced eyes, both have been above-average players for their careers. Pronk is being viewed against his heyday, which is long gone, and Wells against his contract, which was two years and $75 million more than was warranted. Wells delivered little for his $21 million each of the last two seasons, but the two before that he batted .275 and smacked 22 homers a season. Injuries have been Hafner's Achilles heal -- (ironically, he's suffered Biblically over the past decade, but an Achilles heal problem is not among his travails) -- but over the past four seasons, he's produced .268/.361/.453, or 25% above average.

The Sabermetric definition of replacement level for an outfielder is around a .600 OPS. The number wouldn't be much different for a DH or first baseman. Clearly, that is not the standard employed by the Yankees, whose three super-subs have published above-average chapters in April and May. Average OPS for premium hitting positions like corner outfield, DH and first basemen this year is roughly .744, a number cleared by Overbay and obliterated by Pronk and Wells.

Not every Yankee replacement is contending for an All-Star berth. Jayson Nix at shortstop (.230/.306/.294) has defined replacement-level while further burnishing Derek Jeter's bonafides. Eduardo Nunez, pressed into service at short when Kevin Youklis's bulging disc has required Nix to slide to third, is posting a .200/.290/.275 self-indictment with poor defense. With Youk back on the field, Joe Girardi can sit Nunez and endure just one offensive lost cause in the lineup.

Middle infielders who can swing a stick are hard to come by, even for the Yankees and even with lead time. Give a smart franchise time and money to plug holes at positions accustomed to big thumpers and apparently they can deliver starting quality players. Or maybe they've just been unbelievably lucky.

Montero for Pineda: The Prospect Swap That Failed Everyone

Remember the blockbuster 2011 trade between the Yankees and Mariners? Of if not blockbuster, not by New York standards, but a star vehicle with a big opening weekend at the box office? The one in which top prospect Jesus Montero left the Bronx for promising sophomore hurler Michael Pineda?

Well, about that.

Pineda had a season under his belt of 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. He killed lefties and righties by pounding the strike zone from his 6'7" frame. Yankee brass saw through the 9-10 record and liked the way a 3.2 K/BB ratio sounded. And they were done with Montero, whose bashing minor league pedigree and 996 OPS in 18 Major League games had other teams in a lather.

The Mariners figured that even if Montero's backstop development was a lost cause, he could rip the ball from the DH slot and reverse years of historically putrid run scoring in Seattle. In a ballpark that seemed to develop pitchers all by itself, they reasoned that they could replace Pineda.

The logic seemed sound on both ends: the Bombers needed another DH like Julia Fordham needed another good friend. The M's believed Montero's "Can't Miss" status meant he could hit.

And now, as Paul Harvey said, you know the rest of the story. Pineda's Spring training velocity last year took a dive before the Yankees discovered a torn labrum. He hasn't thrown a baseball in anger since. Montero has struck fear only in the hearts of the Mariners' front office, posting replacement-level performances in 2012 and 2013 only on his good days. Yesterday, Montero and his .669 Seattle OPS went to Tacoma for some freshening up.

After 200 games, the Yankees have gotten nothing from the trade and the Mariners actually less than nothing, in the sense that Montero has added (-.4) wins against replacement. Except that replacement-level batters win starting jobs in Seattle, so actual replacement level for them is a glove-first Double-A middle infielder.

Pineda is expected to pitch again this year and (Warning: Obligatory Jesus humor ahead) Jesus could return to Seattle. (There's no team in Bethlehem, PA.) For now, what looked like a blockbuster was more like a ball buster for both sides.

Get Real: Cleveland and Pittsburgh

Cleveland and Detroit are locking up for a pair of early-season first-place duels this week. Even if swept (Max Scherzer shut them down in game one), the Tribe will remain atop the AL Central leaderboard. Riding a heavy-hitting lineup and a reconstituted rotation, first-year manager Terry Francona's squad is seeking to dispatch a couple of years of history when Cleveland burst out of the blocks and faded down the backstretch.

Meanwhile, a couple of hours east, the Pittsburgh Pirates are eight games over .500, a position they haven't occupied at season's end in a generation. They're employing the reverse formula -- superb relief pitching and a couple of good starters are carrying the rest of the team.

At the quarter pole, there's time to dream, but in these two beleaguered cities, there's also time to be skeptical. We've seen all this before; say, last year, with predictable and familiar results. The Indians, four games over .500 following the All-Star break, dropped 54 of their remaining 75 games and crashed to 65-91. The Bucs, two games above .500 with two weeks to play, lost 11 of their last 16 to finish 79-83, a 20th straight year losing more times than they won.

Wait 'til this year.

For one thing, both teams come by their records honestly. The Indians have out-slugged their opponents by 37 runs, not quite the hallmark of a 26-17 record, but indicative of quality. The Pirates have shut down enemy batters and while also out-performing their run differential, are giving up fewer runs than they score.

Moreover, both teams are paced by veteran youth and have spread the good play around. Pittsburgh's offensive roster is just six deep -- center fielder Andrew McCutchen, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, right fielder Jose Tabata, left fielder Starling Marte, first baseman/outfielder Garret Jones, and surprisingly, catcher Russell Martin -- but none of them is out of synch with career norms. If anyone else heats up, the bats could begin to contribute.

The starting pitching is strong and deep, led by A.J. Burnett's Yankee revenge and Astro exile Wandy Rodriguez. Francisco Liriano's two starts after recovering from a fractured left arm have been promising (two runs and 16 K in 11 innings) and could give the Pirates a one-two-three punch they've lacked since Doug Drabek-Randy Tomlin-Bob Walk in 1993, the last time they visited the post-season. (That team included a rookie named Tim Wakefield who knuckled his way to 8-1, 2.15.) Flame-throwing closer Jason Grilli (14+ K/9) anchors a relief corps with ERAs that look like digital code -- all ones and zeroes.

In other words, there's more upside than downside in the 2013 Pirates as long as they stay relatively healthy. Pittsburgh has played nine of 15 series against below .500 teams, but in the NL Central that's hard to avoid. they've yet to tussle with Miami, so there remain free wins on the schedule. Not only could they end the futility, they could kick off an era of contention.

Cleveland has remade itself in 2013 and so far the results portend more. The club signed Nick Swisher to a big deal, rescued Ryan Raburn from Detroit, took a flyer on Mark Reynolds and overpaid Michael Bourn. In one-fourth of a season, Bourn and Swisher are delivering as expected, Raburn has resurrected his career (OPS+ of 29 last year; 148 this year) and Reynolds is hitting .253. When Mark Reynolds hits .253, pitchers cry. At .253/.341/.548, the former Oriole hot cornerman has already bestowed upon his new employers all the value he created through the spring, summer and fall last season.

Add in young catcher Carlos Santana, one of the emerging stars in baseball, and slugging keystoner Jason Kipnis, and the result is the Majors' second most potent offense. Like the Pirates, there's not a lot of mean to regress to.

The warning signs are on the other side of the equation. After Cy Young contender Justin Masterson, the rotation is so porous that warmed-over remnants of Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir have made starts. The mercy rule is soon to take effect on the Kazmir experiment, but it's not clear who takes his place. Ubaldo Jimenez  (5.31 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (15 BB in 16 innings) offer little solace. As with the Pirates, they're facing just their fifth .500+ team this week, but playing in the AL Central means KC, CHW and MIN pop up on the schedule regularly. (And they've yet to dip into the goodie bag that is the Astros.)

With a great skipper at the helm, the Indians have delivered more than the sum of their parts and can continue in that vein. If their goal, like the Pirates', is to step this side of mediocrity, they have a solid shot. Eighty-five wins is not an unreasonable goal. If visions of pennants dance in their heads they're going to need a couple of good arms, and soon.

Alburquerque in Toledo . . .and Other Tales

Alburquerque Now In Toledo
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio. 

Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.

Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities? 

Yes.

Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position. 

Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).

Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.

Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.

Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.

Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.

By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's  best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.

Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.

Bud No Weiser 
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.

All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):

Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792

And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.

With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.

Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start. 

A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.

A Seamhead Predicts This Year's Surprise Performers

Spring Training is like a movie trailer. It's not the movie. It's often nothing like the movie. It's made up entirely of elements from the movie, but in a different context that can be very misleading. It has a different purpose than the movie. Don't judge a movie by its trailer, or a player by his Spring Training performance.

For one thing, its a ridiculously small sample size. (We're speaking of Spring Training now, but it also applies to the trailer.) For another, the competition is suspect. And many players use their time in Florida or Arizona to hone a particular skill.

And yet, sabermetric pioneer John Dewan, one of the founders of STATS, Inc. and the leading developer of fielding statistics, has determined that Spring Training does have predictive value in one narrow area.

Players whose slugging percentage spikes 200 points above their career norms experience breakout seasons 60% of the time. Think of Jose Bautista in 2010 and Jonathan Lucroy, AJ Pierzynski and Billy Butler last year. (A breakout season is generally considered a 20% increase in the relevant skill being measured, but that doesn't appear to be Dewan's yardstick. I'm not sure what standard he's using.)

With a modest .670 lifetime OPS his first two seasons, Lucroy busted loose for the Brewers last year, posting an .803 OPS in 2012, adding 35 points to his batting average, slugging 12 jacks in half a season's work and doubling his walk rate.

After 14 seasons behind the plate, Pierzynski had established himself as a solid (for a backstop) .740 OPS hitter, with slugging numbers in the low 400s and home runs in the low teens. Inexplicably last year, he slammed 27 long balls en route to a .501 SLG, an .827 OPS and the best effort with the stick of his career.

With an .820 lifetime OPS, Butler reached career highs with 29 homers, 107 RBI, an All-Star berth and an .882 OPS last year. Calling that a breakout is a bit of a reach, since "Country Breakfast" hit .300 and posted OPS of .850 twice before.

It's worth mentioning that none of the three -- there were plenty of others -- has maintained his great leap forward so far in 2013. That was to be expected of the 36-year-old Pierzynski. Because Lucroy is so young and Butler is every bit the star we saw in '12, the odds are on their side over the long haul.

All that said, here's Dewan's list of potential breakout candidates (minimum of 200 regular season at-bats and 40 spring training at-bats)

Hitter/Team, Spring Career Difference
Brandon Belt, Giants .906 .418 .488
Justin Smoak, Mariners .811 .377 .434
Howard Kendrick, Angels .833 .428 .405
Ryan Raburn, Indians .833 .430 .403
Nick Hundley, Padres .773 .390 .383
Rick Ankiel, Astros .780 .422 .358
Michael Morse, Mariners .824 .492 .332
Mike Moustakas, Royals .726 .395 .331
Brent Lillibridge, Cubs .675 .350 .325
Mark DeRosa, Blue Jays .725 .412 .313
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians .725 .421 .304
Kevin Youkilis, Yankees .778 .482 .296
Domonic Brown, Phillies .675 .388 .287
Mitch Moreland, Rangers .727 .441 .286
Wilin Rosario, Rockies .805 .522 .283
Dexter Fowler, Rockies .705 .427 .278
Alex Gordon, Royals .714 .439 .275
Craig Gentry, Rangers .618 .355 .263
Gaby Sanchez, Pirates .683 .420 .263
Bryce Harper, Nationals .730 .477 .253
Juan Francisco, Braves .692 .440 .252
Elvis Andrus, Rangers .604 .353 .251
Brandon Crawford, Giants .577 .333 .244
Steve Clevenger, Cubs .523 .281 .242
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays .655 .414 .241
Lucas Duda, Mets .660 .427 .233
Raul Ibanez, Mariners .700 .470 .230
Luis Cruz, Dodgers .600 .371 .229
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks .625 .400 .225
Freddie Freeman, Braves .671 .449 .222
Peter Bourjos, Angels .614 .402 .212
Ben Francisco, Yankees .636 .425 .211
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks .636 .432 .204
Lorenzo Cain, Royals .615 .412 .203

I'll bet my favorite trumpet, Otis Mahorn, that Raul Ibanez doesn't out-perform his stellar career at age 57 (or whatever.) Conversely, it would be quite the upset if Bryce Harper failed to make a quantum leap following his Rookie of the Year season.

And finally, whatever magic beans Luis Cruz was planting in the Spring lost their powers once the season began. Even his weak lifetime .371 SLG is going to be a stretch after losing his infield job with the Dodgers because of 71 plate appearances with a hollow bat. A walk and six singles later (in 71 trips to the plate! That's .090/.114/.090 for you slash stat buffs) he's on the bench behind substitutes who couldn't make the Marlins' roster if you spotted them 10 home runs.

If Dewan's research is borne out over time, we'll have another weapon in our growing arsenal of analysis. We'll keep an eye on this group.

The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!

In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.

Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.

In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.

In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.

A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer. 

So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.

It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.

With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.

Call Off the Season Now

It's May 14. The concept in force remains "small sample size." Yet already, 35 games into the season, logic prevails:

Division Leaders
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants

New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers

Wild Cards
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks

Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox

Other than the conspicuous absence of the Nationals, would any of this be shocking at year's end? All six division winners made the playoffs last year. So did two of the four Wild Cards. There doesn't appear to be a 2012 Cleveland, 2011 Pittsburgh or  2010 Baltimore here that takes off with a gallop and pulls up lame at the three-quarter pole.

Let's delve deeper. Here's the bottom of the standings:

Last place teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros

Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers

Not a single 2012 playoff team. We like to think of Toronto as a favorite, but the 2012 version lost 89 games and the imports arrived with plenty of downside everywhere but on the payroll.
Someone has to bring up the rear in the AL East.

L.A. will almost certainly switch places with the Padres, who are better equipped for the cellar. As for Chicago, well, let's hope the Blackhawks can parlay the NHL's best record into a Stanley Cup run.

It would be interesting to research how long it takes for Major League team records to coalesce around their natural state. In 2013, it looks like 30 games is about that point.

A Comeback of Historic Proportions?

"Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then."

"We are what our record says we are."


Depending on whether you put more stock in visually impaired rodent luck or outcomes-based analysis, Scott Kazmir is either experiencing the proverbial dead cat bounce or an historic comeback of the Mark Sanford variety.

Either way, the cranks who belittled his Spring Training revival can now lick the chicken ova off their mugs. Yum, yum.

Just to recap, the 15th pick in the 2002 draft (by the Mets), Kazmir electrified fans in Tampa by mowing down batters from '05-'09, pacing the junior circuit in K's in '07. But by age 25 in 2009, his K rate tanked as his fastball lost its bite . . . and then even its bark. Once sitting consistently mid-90s, it bottomed at 86 while flailing in the bigs and face-planting against 19-year-olds in an Independent League over the last three years.

But a funny thing may have happened while Kaz rode the pines the last two calendar years. His tired arm or crooked mechanics or serotonin imbalance (or whatever) cleared itself up and he came to Indians camp as a non-roster invitee throwing bee-bees again. Based on three starts of dubious predictive value, Kazmir made the big club and got pressed into starting service. In early April, that appeared to speak volumes more about Cleveland's rotation than about Scott Kazmir's rejuvenation.

And then he strained a ribcage and began the season on the DL, bringing wry smiles to the faces of cynics such as H.L. Mencken and my own personal self. Nothing changed when he finally returned to the team, surrendering six runs in a three-inning inauguration against the Minor League Astros. Had he called it a career right there no one could have blamed him.

Even after fanning 11 in 11 innings over his next two starts -- a pair of two-run performances against bottom dwellers KC and Minnesota -- a healthy dose of doubt was in order. He'd been pitching on six days rest against lower-tier offenses and still sported a 6.28 ERA with four home runs against him in 14 frames.

And then this past week, on normal rest, Kazmir threw 103 pitches past, through and around the Oakland A's, whiffing 10 without walking anyone over six innings. It was his first no-walk effort in 36 months. It was his first double-digit strikeout game in 45 months. Other than one solo homer, Oakland couldn't touch his 96 mph fastball.

So now we've come to the dead cat bounce. Is this -- pardon the mixed fauna metaphors -- Scott Kazmir's swan song before the clock strikes midnight on his Major League career or has he re-gained the strength/mechanics/outlook to master the best hitters in the world? 

A pitcher who inflates his fastball velocity by 10 mph is somewhere in the vicinity of unprecedented. On the other hand, mediocre results over 20 innings that consumed 387 pitches hardly bodes well. There are still serious questions about Kazmir's durability, both over a season and within games, even if he continues to short out radar guns.

"Trust by verify," say Russians, who are understandably reluctant to commit based on small sample sizes. We'll be watching Scott Kazmir and wishing him the best because that would be a great story. In the meantime, his record says he's a 4.86 ERA pitcher.