24 May 2013

Montero for Pineda: The Prospect Swap That Failed Everyone

Remember the blockbuster 2011 trade between the Yankees and Mariners? Of if not blockbuster, not by New York standards, but a star vehicle with a big opening weekend at the box office? The one in which top prospect Jesus Montero left the Bronx for promising sophomore hurler Michael Pineda?

Well, about that.

Pineda had a season under his belt of 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. He killed lefties and righties by pounding the strike zone from his 6'7" frame. Yankee brass saw through the 9-10 record and liked the way a 3.2 K/BB ratio sounded. And they were done with Montero, whose bashing minor league pedigree and 996 OPS in 18 Major League games had other teams in a lather.

The Mariners figured that even if Montero's backstop development was a lost cause, he could rip the ball from the DH slot and reverse years of historically putrid run scoring in Seattle. In a ballpark that seemed to develop pitchers all by itself, they reasoned that they could replace Pineda.

The logic seemed sound on both ends: the Bombers needed another DH like Julia Fordham needed another good friend. The M's believed Montero's "Can't Miss" status meant he could hit.

And now, as Paul Harvey said, you know the rest of the story. Pineda's Spring training velocity last year took a dive before the Yankees discovered a torn labrum. He hasn't thrown a baseball in anger since. Montero has struck fear only in the hearts of the Mariners' front office, posting replacement-level performances in 2012 and 2013 only on his good days. Yesterday, Montero and his .669 Seattle OPS went to Tacoma for some freshening up.

After 200 games, the Yankees have gotten nothing from the trade and the Mariners actually less than nothing, in the sense that Montero has added (-.4) wins against replacement. Except that replacement-level batters win starting jobs in Seattle, so actual replacement level for them is a glove-first Double-A middle infielder.

Pineda is expected to pitch again this year and (Warning: Obligatory Jesus humor ahead) Jesus could return to Seattle. (There's no team in Bethlehem, PA.) For now, what looked like a blockbuster was more like a ball buster for both sides.

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